2019 Great Lakes Region

[Domino1195]

JCU since becoming a national darling has slumped to 1-2-2 in the their last 5 (which admittedly has been a tough schedule stretch with the exception of the lone win versus lowly Muskingum).  The Blue Streaks with multiple ranked wins and a sky-high SoS should still be fine for a NCAA Pool C if needed, but one can wonder if JCU is just in a lull or more of a fade.  Did the Streaks peak too early? Or did the percentages just catch up with them in cliffhanger-type tilts?  JCU only had a single shot on goal in 110 minutes Mt Union last night.  The Raiders have proven to be a very stout defensive outfit, but from what I saw JCU dominated play and yet could not create many decent chances despite being in the Mt. Union half for much of the contest.  JCU also, for example, only had 5 shots total versus CWRU.  I have noted before JCU's reliance on Turrittin and set pieces and they aren't going to get far in the NCAA tourney if they can't score from the run of play.  JCU has three more relatively tough OAC games in a row before the schedule lightens up at the end.

Based on Domino's insights I took a closer look at ONU.  The Polar Bears are indeed having a fine season and should rack up three more wins in their next three before they end the season with a trio of more competitive foes.  Mt Union is also proving to be a legit contender in the OAC although one wonders if they can produce enough offense in big matches as the season progresses.

Couple things Paul:

• Goals from the run of play might as well be on the endangered species list in the GL - especially from the teams that will be ranked. Set pieces have to be close to 65% of goals scored this year.
• Trying to watch JCU-MTU on my phone while at the Cap game was challenging but from what I saw: this was a typical game for both sides.  And I want to acknowledge I was wrong on the cards and fouls - a very well played game - both teams keeping their focus and executing as they have been all year.
• JCU might have had a couple bounces go their way earlier - the late PK at Rochester - and maybe some of those bounces are going against - the OWU goal in the 109th minute. But fundamentally they are playing the same - maybe even a little better on defense (Messiah game an exception).  They are one of 2-3 teams in the GL that will be able to dictate how a game is played the majority of the time.
• MTU has so many juniors and seniors - they played Capital to 0-0 results twice in 2016 (second time Capital winning in the OAC tourney in double OT).  But this is what they do: knock the ball around in the back, wait for the opposition to press up a bit - then see what opens up and send a direct ball to the 3 up front.  Last night no shots after the first half - 7 for the game. But their defense is like the Black Knight: None shall pass.

Denison could easily have a record like MTU and JCU if they got a ball to bounce their way in the three 1-0 losses to JCU, OWU and MTU. They have had only 3 home games this year, away at Kenyon on Sat.  If they don't lay an egg as they did at Otterbein Saturday's game could be much like their other 1-0 games (and the 0-0 game at Capital for that matter).

The surprise of the night for was that ONU only got one against BW.  And I see one of the two saves recorded by ONU was a team save - usually means the ball got by the keeper and was saved inside the 6. Both Wilmington and BW have much greater challenges ahead, given their competition YTD, but that was a good results for BW at ONU.

[PaulNewman]

JCU since becoming a national darling has slumped to 1-2-2 in the their last 5 (which admittedly has been a tough schedule stretch with the exception of the lone win versus lowly Muskingum).  The Blue Streaks with multiple ranked wins and a sky-high SoS should still be fine for a NCAA Pool C if needed, but one can wonder if JCU is just in a lull or more of a fade.  Did the Streaks peak too early? Or did the percentages just catch up with them in cliffhanger-type tilts?  JCU only had a single shot on goal in 110 minutes Mt Union last night.  The Raiders have proven to be a very stout defensive outfit, but from what I saw JCU dominated play and yet could not create many decent chances despite being in the Mt. Union half for much of the contest.  JCU also, for example, only had 5 shots total versus CWRU.  I have noted before JCU's reliance on Turrittin and set pieces and they aren't going to get far in the NCAA tourney if they can't score from the run of play.  JCU has three more relatively tough OAC games in a row before the schedule lightens up at the end.

Based on Domino's insights I took a closer look at ONU.  The Polar Bears are indeed having a fine season and should rack up three more wins in their next three before they end the season with a trio of more competitive foes.  Mt Union is also proving to be a legit contender in the OAC although one wonders if they can produce enough offense in big matches as the season progresses.

Couple things Paul:

• Goals from the run of play might as well be on the endangered species list in the GL - especially from the teams that will be ranked. Set pieces have to be close to 65% of goals scored this year.
• Trying to watch JCU-MTU on my phone while at the Cap game was challenging but from what I saw: this was a typical game for both sides.  And I want to acknowledge I was wrong on the cards and fouls - a very well played game - both teams keeping their focus and executing as they have been all year.
• JCU might have had a couple bounces go their way earlier - the late PK at Rochester - and maybe some of those bounces are going against - the OWU goal in the 109th minute. But fundamentally they are playing the same - maybe even a little better on defense (Messiah game an exception).  They are one of 2-3 teams in the GL that will be able to dictate how a game is played the majority of the time.
• MTU has so many juniors and seniors - they played Capital to 0-0 results twice in 2016 (second time Capital winning in the OAC tourney in double OT).  But this is what they do: knock the ball around in the back, wait for the opposition to press up a bit - then see what opens up and send a direct ball to the 3 up front.  Last night no shots after the first half - 7 for the game. But their defense is like the Black Knight: None shall pass.

Denison could easily have a record like MTU and JCU if they got a ball to bounce their way in the three 1-0 losses to JCU, OWU and MTU. They have had only 3 home games this year, away at Kenyon on Sat.  If they don't lay an egg as they did at Otterbein Saturday's game could be much like their other 1-0 games (and the 0-0 game at Capital for that matter).

The surprise of the night for was that ONU only got one against BW.  And I see one of the two saves recorded by ONU was a team save - usually means the ball got by the keeper and was saved inside the 6. Both Wilmington and BW have much greater challenges ahead, given their competition YTD, but that was a good results for BW at ONU.

I'm well aware of JCU's style, and hence my assessment.  Are you saying you aren't concerned with JCU's offensive limitations?  Controlling play versus BW or Marietta isn't the same as having the firepower to get by a Calvin or Chicago or OWU in a Sweet 16 game.  Take out the Muskingum game and JCU has not scored a single goal in 309 minutes of play.  JCU absolutely is a very good team, especially compared to other competition in the GL, but just about 10 days or 2 weeks ago some or many were considering JCU to be a top 5 team in the nation.  I just don't see that.

[Domino1195]

I'm well aware of JCU's style, and hence my assessment.  Are you saying you aren't concerned with JCU's offensive limitations?  Controlling play versus BW or Marietta isn't the same as having the firepower to get by a Calvin or Chicago or OWU in a Sweet 16 game.  Take out the Muskingum game and JCU has not scored a single goal in 309 minutes of play.  JCU absolutely is a very good team, especially compared to other competition in the GL, but just about 10 days or 2 weeks ago some or many were considering JCU to be a top 5 team in the nation.  I just don't see that.

There aren't any offensive powers in the region - again qualifying this statement with "those that are likely to be ranked come November."  Just looking at NCAC and OAC (if any GL team is going to win their first two NCAA games it will most likely come from these conferences): through the first two conference games each conference has scored 29 goals.

If a GL team does get to the round of 16 they will do it on defense. Which could be said about any team that gets to the round of 16. I feel the parity that is being discussed on these boards has a lot to do with teams adopting defensive, counterattacking tactics.  That's why so many GL team look the same - to me.

I haven't compared stats to previous seasons but there are 27 teams with a 3.00 goals per game average or higher.  Of these teams only two have a Massey SOS in the top 50: Calvin and North Park.  Teams that average 2.5 to 2.99 goals a game with SOS in the top 50 include Wash Lee, Amherst, St. Mary (MD) and Conn College. If you were looking for a group to pick a national champion from - this isn't a bad list.  Teams that defend AND score!

[Domino1195]

Oh all right. Just made my hotel reservation for JCU tomorrow. Frickin' 40 degrees - and I don't even have a kid playing anymore . . .

[midwest]

So JCU-Capital was the "marquee" match of the weekend, but Kenyon-Denison was a better match than the 3-1 Kenyon win makes it sound. A fairly balanced match through much of the first half, with both teams having some opportunities. I've seen Denison barely hold back dominating attacks, and that was not this game. Kenyon led 1-0 at the half, Denison got the equalizer a few minutes into the second half. We heard a Kenyon prospect ask if Kenyon usually played that evenly with teams like Denison. Unfortunately for Denison, things fell apart shortly after substitutions were made to the back line after the 70th minute, as Kenyon went up 2-1. The third goal came from goalie error. Not a game Denison was expected to win, but not as bad a match as the score makes it look.

[PaulNewman]

Midwest, hope you enjoyed your time in Gambier. I know you've had some questions about the facilities at Kenyon...how was the field?

You obviously saw the game live.  I would just add that watching the stream I had the impression that the Lords easily could have been up 3-0 or 4-0 at just the first half.  The Denison GK appeared to be phenomenal, stopping a PK and having at least 3-4 other incredible saves (again, in the first half alone).  Kenyon appeared to be not just living in Denison's final third but spent a good deal of time inside Denison's 18.  Stats showed shots 22 to 9 and 13 to 3 (SOG).  As for the recruit's comment/question, I'm not quite sure what "like Denison" means.  We all know that Denison and Kenyon have a long rivalry history, only eclipsed especially since 2012/2013 by the outstanding OWU-Kenyon rivalry.  At any rate, Denison typically does play Kenyon very competitively with frequent one-goal and/or OT contests.

John Penas did get his first minutes of the season for Kenyon which is great news for the Lords.  I imagine it will take him at least a few games to regain his form.  With Carpenter also back I think that only leaves Max Taylor as a significant piece still on the sidelines.

[Domino1195]

So JCU-Capital was the "marquee" match of the weekend, but Kenyon-Denison was a better match than the 3-1 Kenyon win makes it sound. A fairly balanced match through much of the first half, with both teams having some opportunities. I've seen Denison barely hold back dominating attacks, and that was not this game. Kenyon led 1-0 at the half, Denison got the equalizer a few minutes into the second half. We heard a Kenyon prospect ask if Kenyon usually played that evenly with teams like Denison. Unfortunately for Denison, things fell apart shortly after substitutions were made to the back line after the 70th minute, as Kenyon went up 2-1. The third goal came from goalie error. Not a game Denison was expected to win, but not as bad a match as the score makes it look.

I tried watching this game while driving to the JCU-Cap game (don't judge me!) but Brown is among the better keepers in the GL that I have seen - but prone to a costly mistake every now and then (the Marietta goals come to mind).  But I still believe 3rd place is where Denison will finish.  This is a critical week for them as they take on two of the three challengers (Wabash and DePauw) for the 3rd and 4th spots in the NCAC tourney.  In the Wabash games I've seen - they can be weak with their marking, especially on backside runs.  I truly believe they have the potential to finish 7-2 in conference.  Wooster has two winnable games this week - they cannot afford to drop points.

[Domino1195]

GL thoughts:

• PAC - Grove City wins at Geneva Saturday and visits Westminster on Wednesday.  While W&J is also tied for first I don't see them staying there for long.  Westminster "stole" GC's NCAA bid last year by winning the conference tournament - GC should be plenty motivated.
• HCAC - since losing at ONU 2-0 RHIT has reeled off 5 straight SO - albeit against teams without a winning record. Away at Hanover on Wednesday, who dominated a poor Earlham team this past Saturday but didn't score until the 75th minute.
• OAC - most interesting result to me was the 0-0 draw at Mount Union.  Wilmington hasn't been challenged much with their schedule but they were ready for this contest.  MTU had a little more of the play in the first half but Wilmington was the better side in the second.  Not a lot of quality shots on goal - Wilmington may have had the best chance midway through the second half - would have loved to have seen the shot but the MTU cameraman had trouble keeping up with the game ALL DAY. MTU is also a team that struggles to score (two-straight 0-0 draws) but I was impressed with Wilmington's defending. Not sure they can hold the best scoring team in the OAC, ONU, without a goal on Wednesday.  But ONU has JCU on Saturday and this game against Wilmington is a potential trap game.
• The winner of JCU-ONU Saturday should go on to win the conference.  Attended the Cap-JCU game Saturday.  I don't know if the ball has "bounced" Cap's way all season, but you have to create opportunities for that to happen.  They did better than they have in recent games - they do rely on long throws and corners to create havoc in the box. But for as many times as the ball hit the ground near the 6 the JCU defenders blocked and cleared all.  JCU should have had 3, 4 more goals - missed some wide open opportunities. Can't afford to miss these chances on Saturday and the JCU keeper has to be stronger on balls in the air.
• NCAC - The Game is Wednesday at OWU.  I will be there for sure even though the forecast calls for rain.  Both Kenyon and OWU are in great form right now - should be a treat!

[Domino1195]

So JCU-Capital was the "marquee" match of the weekend, but Kenyon-Denison was a better match than the 3-1 Kenyon win makes it sound. A fairly balanced match through much of the first half, with both teams having some opportunities. I've seen Denison barely hold back dominating attacks, and that was not this game. Kenyon led 1-0 at the half, Denison got the equalizer a few minutes into the second half. We heard a Kenyon prospect ask if Kenyon usually played that evenly with teams like Denison. Unfortunately for Denison, things fell apart shortly after substitutions were made to the back line after the 70th minute, as Kenyon went up 2-1. The third goal came from goalie error. Not a game Denison was expected to win, but not as bad a match as the score makes it look.

This week's GL USC poll has Wabash at 9 and DePauw at 10.  If Denison takes both games this week they will surely be ranked in the coach's poll.

OWU, winners of 4 straight by SO, at 6?  PSU-B, losing once this week, and MTU with two draws this week, above them? A minor thing but I would think the deserve 4th.

ONU jumps to second behind Kenyon, JCU third.

[midwest]

@PaulNewman -- Kenyon field looked gorgeous, and it was a beautiful brisk fall day, no complaints! My concern had been about the impact of mid-day, mid-week games for teams traveling, thinking about Wabash which played Kenyon last year mid-day in the NCAC tournament. The Kenyon recruit's comments about "like Denison" seemed to be surprise that a nationally ranked program was tied 1-1 with an unranked team going into the last 20 minutes of the match. Looking to tomorrow, I'm pleased the Denison-Wabash is a mid-day game so I can watch Kenyon OWU livestream in the evening! As a parent observer to this world, I always appreciate the observations of you more experienced folk, thank you!

[PaulNewman]

@PaulNewman -- Kenyon field looked gorgeous, and it was a beautiful brisk fall day, no complaints! My concern had been about the impact of mid-day, mid-week games for teams traveling, thinking about Wabash which played Kenyon last year mid-day in the NCAC tournament. The Kenyon recruit's comments about "like Denison" seemed to be surprise that a nationally ranked program was tied 1-1 with an unranked team going into the last 20 minutes of the match. Looking to tomorrow, I'm pleased the Denison-Wabash is a mid-day game so I can watch Kenyon OWU livestream in the evening! As a parent observer to this world, I always appreciate the observations of you more experienced folk, thank you!

Well, I hope the recruit didn't cross Kenyon off his list based on the Lords' performance!

As an aside, and I'm assuming your son has been at Denison for at least a couple of years, do you have any insights or observations about why  Denison hasn't had more success over the past 6-8 years?  Great school, competitive academic profile, and rich tradition, and seemingly right in the sweet spot of very good schools where admissions may be a little more forgiving (similar to Conn Coll, Trinity, Union, SLU, DePauw, Centre, Rhodes, etc). 

P.S.  So is Denison heading to Wabash today/tonight for tomorrow's game?  That is what I presume usually is the protocol, and especially for any playoff games.

[Domino1195]

So JCU-Capital was the "marquee" match of the weekend, but Kenyon-Denison was a better match than the 3-1 Kenyon win makes it sound. A fairly balanced match through much of the first half, with both teams having some opportunities. I've seen Denison barely hold back dominating attacks, and that was not this game. Kenyon led 1-0 at the half, Denison got the equalizer a few minutes into the second half. We heard a Kenyon prospect ask if Kenyon usually played that evenly with teams like Denison. Unfortunately for Denison, things fell apart shortly after substitutions were made to the back line after the 70th minute, as Kenyon went up 2-1. The third goal came from goalie error. Not a game Denison was expected to win, but not as bad a match as the score makes it look.

This week's GL USC poll has Wabash at 9 and DePauw at 10.  If Denison takes both games this week they will surely be ranked in the coach's poll.

OWU, winners of 4 straight by SO, at 6?  PSU-B, losing once this week, and MTU with two draws this week, above them? A minor thing but I would think the deserve 4th.

ONU jumps to second behind Kenyon, JCU third.

One down, one to go for Denison. Two goals in one minute (or so) - but I pointed out how Wabash can be beaten with back side runs.

Fluky goal for Hanover with 3:45 left to steal the win from RHIT. Should they meet again in the conference tourney I think RHIT gets an emphatic win.

Patchy drizzle and 48 degrees at 6:15 pm in Delaware. I suppose I'll still go but it's damn comfortable in Old Dog Ale House . . .

[PaulNewman]

Well, I thought there would already be some comments, so I'll jump in.

As a Kenyon fan I'm disappointed that the Lords didn't pull out a win (because they actually needed a win more than OWU), but all in all, I'm OK with the result, and while I presume OWU was disappointed especially given a significant stats advantage I think the draw was a good result for both teams.  Both teams had their chances, including both hitting a post or crossbar.  Although they don't share a lot of love I think the two programs have developed a very healthy respect for one another and view the other as very worthy opponents.  Jay Martin in his post-game blurb said "this was a good college soccer game between two very good teams" while adding he thought OWU edged the play in the 2nd half.  Kenyon-OWU ranks right up there with any other rivalry in the country.

Kenyon could/should have been down 2-0 before even getting off the bus.  They looked flat to me but maybe it was nerves because of so many sophs and frosh being on that stage for the first time.  The Lords seemed to either hold the ball too long or get rid of it too quickly when there was no need.  The Lords eventually recovered after about 15-20 minutes and had some stretches of pushing and carrying the play.  Momentum seemed to shift back and forth as one might expect.  At any rate, all of Kenyon's young crew got some invaluable experience, and they did so without having to walk away with a loss. Some might be surprised to realize that Kenyon's last loss to OWU was the Sweet 16 nightmare of 2014, two weeks after beating OWU for the first time in years.  Since then I believe the Lords are 5-0-3 in the series.  They also have gotten their injured upperclassmen back and hopefully those players can round into form over the next few games.  Frosh sensation Mac Nardiello-Smith did not play, so hopefully he will not be out long.  Kenyon may be missing an AA type who can take over a game, but they are so deep I'm not sure Brown has figured out who he wants to play.  OWU is a mature squad with loads of talent, fully capable of beating any team in the nation.  These squads likely will play again in a few weeks and of course could end up playing a third time (if both make the NCAA tourney).

One other observation....I never expected Sam Hosmer-Quint to be this good as a CB.  I don't think he's as athletic as Sam Justice, Myers or Lowry, but he's very smart with good timing and pretty good distribution.  The other CB, Bruneau, a frosh who got a chance because of injuries, has been very impressive as well.  Soph standout Scott Upton started the game with 4 or 5 errors in a row and I thought should have been pulled, but the Lords need him to play well and he improved as the game progressed.  And of course the goal yielded was off the same kind of set piece that haunted Kenyon against JCU earlier this year and versus CWRU in their Sweet 16 game last year where CWRU ended up advancing on PKs.

And congrats to Denison on a good win at Wabash.

[Domino1195]

Paul - per the stats: OWU pads everything.  I've been at games where they listed the attendance at 900 
I was there until OT but the shots listed for OWU was ridiculously high.

Kenyon had the better of ball control - OWU plays tenaciously when they don't have the ball - but I didn't think Kenyon was too slow on the ball. OWU was  much like Canada vs US Tuesday - relentless pressure for the entire game

As you pointed out Kenyon used almost all their players - once they subbed 7-8 players at once.  Getting these younger players game experience in a contest like this will benefit Kenyon come tourney time. I will say this is the smallest Kenyon team I've seen in the past 6 years.

I sat with Kenyon parents - the players you have been asking about - #10 Penas - just back from a ACL ? tear - one of those types of knee injuries. There is another player that is also just coming back from a similar knee injury.

Per Nardiello-Smith:  there's a crud going round Ohio - maybe he got a touch of it.  I know Ruple from BW played maybe 30 minutes in their loss to Heidelberg and Capital has a couple players suffering.

[Domino1195]

Other GL thoughts:

• Westminister's margin of victory over Grove City surprised me a bit - 4-0.  Odd scheduling for Westminster to play CWRU right before their last conference game against Geneva, but I think Westminster is now the team to take the PAC spot in the NCAA's.
• Looks like both JCU and ONU were looking ahead to their match-up this Saturday.  Dominant performance by both yet ONU loses and JCU needs OT to get past a scrappy Otterbein team.  Wilmington's game winner came off a corner - ONU defender dove head-first on the goal line to clear the ball but the AR declared the ball had crossed the line. I watched the replay several times - the AR's position was perfect and he didn't hesitate with his call - sprinted up the sideline and took the post goal position per procedure.  The ONU defender raced towards the CR and AR to protest - maybe he wanted them to look at VAR??
• Wilmington, Wilmington, Wilmington. I fully expected them to make the OAC tourney this year - but I did not have them doing this well.  Their two losses are to11-1-1 Kenyon and to a  9-4-1 Adrian. Their draw against Anderson is a head-scratcher - but other than that they're very impressive.  Coach Van der Sluijs achieved almost impossible results at Defiance - coaching both the men's and women's programs simultaneously and obtaining winning records for both.
• Capital scores two odd goals - both from long FK's from midfield (one directly goes in the other flicked on) at Marietta, temporarily giving them the 6th spot for the OAC tourney.  With 5 games to go for all conference teams I think the top 5 spots are set (Otterbein and Wilmington have work to do but the way they are playing they would need to implode to lose the 4th and 5th positions).  They need to make a statement against Mt. Union at home Saturday - a team they have not beaten in the regular season since 2015.
• DePauw shot themselves in the foot with that loss at Wittenberg yesterday.  I was fairly certain Denison would win yesterday and - unless they draw in a future game - I think they finish 7-2 in conference.  The 4th spot is wide open - but Wabash has a difficult schedule and I think they falter.  And DePauw gives up too many goals - so at this point I think Wooster is the 4th team in the NCAC tourney.  Final game of the season has Wooster at Denison - a tourney berth could be on the line that day.