2019 Great Lakes Region

[ncac_dad]

Well, I thought there would already be some comments, so I'll jump in.

As a Kenyon fan I'm disappointed that the Lords didn't pull out a win (because they actually needed a win more than OWU), but all in all, I'm OK with the result, and while I presume OWU was disappointed especially given a significant stats advantage I think the draw was a good result for both teams.  Both teams had their chances, including both hitting a post or crossbar.  Although they don't share a lot of love I think the two programs have developed a very healthy respect for one another and view the other as very worthy opponents.  Jay Martin in his post-game blurb said "this was a good college soccer game between two very good teams" while adding he thought OWU edged the play in the 2nd half.  Kenyon-OWU ranks right up there with any other rivalry in the country.

Kenyon could/should have been down 2-0 before even getting off the bus.  They looked flat to me but maybe it was nerves because of so many sophs and frosh being on that stage for the first time.  The Lords seemed to either hold the ball too long or get rid of it too quickly when there was no need.  The Lords eventually recovered after about 15-20 minutes and had some stretches of pushing and carrying the play.  Momentum seemed to shift back and forth as one might expect.  At any rate, all of Kenyon's young crew got some invaluable experience, and they did so without having to walk away with a loss. Some might be surprised to realize that Kenyon's last loss to OWU was the Sweet 16 nightmare of 2014, two weeks after beating OWU for the first time in years.  Since then I believe the Lords are 5-0-3 in the series.  They also have gotten their injured upperclassmen back and hopefully those players can round into form over the next few games.  Frosh sensation Mac Nardiello-Smith did not play, so hopefully he will not be out long.  Kenyon may be missing an AA type who can take over a game, but they are so deep I'm not sure Brown has figured out who he wants to play.  OWU is a mature squad with loads of talent, fully capable of beating any team in the nation.  These squads likely will play again in a few weeks and of course could end up playing a third time (if both make the NCAA tourney).

One other observation....I never expected Sam Hosmer-Quint to be this good as a CB.  I don't think he's as athletic as Sam Justice, Myers or Lowry, but he's very smart with good timing and pretty good distribution.  The other CB, Bruneau, a frosh who got a chance because of injuries, has been very impressive as well.  Soph standout Scott Upton started the game with 4 or 5 errors in a row and I thought should have been pulled, but the Lords need him to play well and he improved as the game progressed.  And of course the goal yielded was off the same kind of set piece that haunted Kenyon against JCU earlier this year and versus CWRU in their Sweet 16 game last year where CWRU ended up advancing on PKs.

And congrats to Denison on a good win at Wabash.

Paul, a tie was a fair result when you look at the overall play by both teams. However, your comment "Kenyon could/should have been down 2-0 before even getting off the bus" is very accurate. The centerback #15, got the bouncy ball in front of the goal for his first, then his header was not has snappy as it needed to be. Missed opportunity. He did not play for the first six games, however the team has been 4-0-2 since he has started with four shutouts. Makes you wonder.

What cost OWU the win, occurred on a nice shot on goal by a Kenyon player that was obviously going wide; However, a trailing OWU defender back healed it in front of the goal, which eventually resulted in Kenyon's goal.

I thought Kenyon passed the ball well and were quicker to the ball than OWU. #4 is really quick. OWU was tenacious on defense. Another game with a lot of shots, but no goals by OWU. OWU #17 out ran the left back numerous times, but could not get the right touch and score. If the exact game was played at Kenyon's field the score may have been 5-4 or 6-5.

Lastly, my only complaint is that the Kenyon players were flopping a bit much. I have been told that is a norm for Kenyon, however, I did not see that the last two matches in Kenyon. One of those matches Kenyon did not have to flop.

If the stars are aligned and Kenyon manages to score in a playoff game again with 2 seconds left, OWU will see you again in the NCAC finals.

Potentially tough match for you tomorrow against Wabash. I hope it is a good match.

[Domino1195]

GL Thoughts:

• AMCC - for all their dominance PSU-B could actually find themselves not hosting the final tourney game.  If Medaille wins out, they will be top seed. Nothing left really in this conference except for the championship game on November 9th.  But Medaille and Franciscan might give PSU-B a challenge.
• PAC - there are games defined by parity and their are games that can only be seen as a lost opportunity. Westminster should not have dropped points at Waynesburg - no matter how nettlesome Waynesburg has proven to be this year (three ties against conference opponents at home this season).  But I think the four tournament teams are set, given the remaining games: Westminster, Grove City, W&L and Geneva.
• HCAC - same for this conference - top four currently will be the four tourney teams: Transy, RHIT, Hanover and Manchester. Transy still has both RHIT and Hanover left to play, away at Hanover on Wednesday. Hanover has a cake walk after Wednesday - if they beat Transy they will hold the tie-breaker over both Transy and RHIT and have home field throughout the HCAC tourney - a very likely scenario.  I posted a couple weeks ago that this may be Hanover's year given the disappointing tourney final losses to RHIT and Transy the past two season.
• NCAC - cannot see either of Denison's or Kenyon's results Saturday as being due to parity.  I've seen Wabash play several times this season: results against Trine, Olivet, barely beating Franklin, concede 2 goals to Mt St Joe - SOS 270.  Coming off a home loss to Denison. Sadly I tuned out when Kenyon finally scored . . . Denison squanders a 1-0 lead at home in a critical game with tourney implications.  I think it very possible that Denison and Wooster will be 5-3 when they meet at Denison last game of the NCAC season.  DePauw has at difficult schedule ahead of them, but they could be 4-3 when they face Wabash, who will likely be 4-2-1 for that game.  I know I'm discounting Oberlin's chances - but with their remaining schedule I don't think they win more than one game (maybe two if they can win at Wooster)
• OAC - marque match-up on Saturday goes to JCU - very nice side volley scored directly from a ball received from a corner kick.  JCU dictated the pace and flow of this game, forcing ONU to react for the most part.  First regional rankings should have JCU, Kenyon and OWU as the top three but JCU is should be the #1 spot IMO.  Wouldn't be surprised to see OWU at #1 tho.  Can understand Wilmington being a bit flat after their big win against ONU - but they were beaten soundly by Marietta and they have a very tough final 4 games in the OAC.  Maybe that weak SOS is catching up to them. Capital plays their best game since Case - over 6 weeks ago.  Amazing what can be done when playing with a lead.  Mt. Union still plays as consistently as they have been all season - but they trailed only once this season (PSU-B) and that for only 5-7 minutes.  Was interesting to see them have to push to get an equalizer for almost 70 minutes.  After Heidelberg on Wednesday ONU finishes up with Capital, Otterbein and Mt. Union.  As of today I don't think anyone moves JCU out of first; Otterbein and ONU vie for second and third. Wilmington, Capital and Mt. Union fight it out for positions 4-6.
• Case and CMU - CMU rises to .500 with two wins this weekend; Case concede two more goals in the final minutes of the game - on Sunday with 1 second left (corner kick converted by UR).  CMU may sneak into the top 8 regional rankings but their last three games are on the road, including at Chicago - they won't finish above .500.  Case is also looking at a possible losing record - also currently at .500 with four games to go.

[mondomike]

Nobody outside of CMU/Roch/Emory supporters probably watched the 2 CMU games this weekend.
As a supporter, these 2 performances were by far the best of the season - much more dangerous in attack, with defense coming up big with 2 shutouts.
Will be interesting to see how they do in their final 3 games: WashU, Chicago, CWRU - seems very possible to me, if they continue with this form, to see them grab at least 2/3 wins.

[Domino1195]

This week's GL USC poll has Wabash at 9 and DePauw at 10.  If Denison takes both games this week they will surely be ranked in the coach's poll.

OWU, winners of 4 straight by SO, at 6?  PSU-B, losing once this week, and MTU with two draws this week, above them? A minor thing but I would think the deserve 4th.

ONU jumps to second behind Kenyon, JCU third.

Same 10 teams ranked by the coaches this week - lots of reordering:

JCU jumps back to #1, Kenyon slipping down one to #2. PSU-B and OWU move up to 3rd and 4th, respectively.  ONU drops to 5 with two losses last week, Wilmington moves up two spots with a 1-1 week. Mt. Union drops to 7th, Wabash with a 0-1-1 week MOVES UP to 8th (??), RHIT and DePauw at 9 and 10.

Coaches:  I know you're busy lads but watch a game once in a while . . .

[PaulNewman]

A very disappointing week to be a Kenyon fan. 

I can't even remember the OWU game a week ago today, although all in all that was the Lords' best result over the last week.  A win would have been helpful but a draw was fine.  Then Kenyon follows up three days later, at home, on Parents Weekend, with a listless, lackadaisical performance against Wabash that basically handed the regular season title and home field for the NCAC tournament to the Battling Bishops.  The Lords went up around the 80th minute via Trevor Gleason, a frosh who has been a 3rd or 4th line forward and the last forward to get in games for 5-10 minutes at most.  He's already scored some big goals in limited minutes that hopefully will help him earn a jersey next year that's not in the 30s.  At any rate, Kenyon only needed to see out 10 minutes for a fortunate win given how they played (although still dominated statistically).  With about 7 minutes left, Stengel got taken down in the box pretty blatantly and there was no call.  In the confusion over the non-call Wabash started a break and a Kenyon defender right around midfield or even still in the Wabash half commits what looked like a typical, unremarkable  professional foul to interrupt the Wabash counter. The defender was not close to being the last defender, and yet the referee issued a red.  The call appeared to be a very defensive reaction to just having blown the call that would have given Kenyon a PK and a potential 2-0 lead.  With less than a minute left in regulation Wabash scores off (of course) a 40-45 yard free kick similar to almost every goal the Lords have conceded all year (and some last year as well including in the Sweet 16 game with CWRU).  Apparently a free kick from midfield is more of a threat to the Lords than corners.  Kenyon either needs to stop fouling and giving away free kicks from 60 yards out or closer, or they have to figure out how to defend in those situations.   And then a bad result almost turned disastrous as Wabash had an excellent chance in the 2nd OT that looked headed for the upper right 90 but just missed.

Just two days later (yesterday) the Lords traveled for an afternoon tilt against a hungry and jacked up Wooster side.  Kenyon again could not hold a lead and conceded about five to 5-6 minutes into the 2nd half on a play where the Wooster player waltzed around the top of the 18 unmarked and drilled a shot into the lower right corner.  Kenyon resumed a domination of possession, but as often is the case, created very few dangerous chances with no shots that troubled the Wooster GK.  Wooster later had 2-3 great chances to win it, including in the last minute as Kenyon continued to struggle with set pieces from distance and in closer.  Coach Brown started writing notes for OT when right in front of him a frosh defender struck a free kick inside his own half that somehow landed at one of the Icelandic frosh's feet and ended up in the Wooster net with .4 seconds left. 

Coach Keller at Wabash has done a phenomenal job with that program and Wooster is much improved and competitive.  That said, my sense is that any mid-level to bottom tier NESCAC squad (excluding Trinity) would dispatch these teams fairly easily.  I think Bates for example would just have too much talent for Wabash or Wooster.

Kenyon very well may need to win the NCAC tourney to get a NCAA bid (while OWU already has a Pool C locked up if needed).  They are young and deep with a roster full of decent to good players.  They don't appear to have any great players, and they also do not seem to have a clue about an optimal line-up.  I've said I thought expectations were too high this year at least externally, and the Lords were due for a rebuilding year.  They are 12-1-2, but they don't look good right now, and they likely have no really good wins (as in "ranked").  I would be happier if they played with more urgency, stopped with the soft passes and adventures in the back often including the GK, learned how to handle 50-60 yard free kicks, and stopped fouling in bad spots.

[Domino1195]

The "if's and but's" year Wooster has had . . . they could very easily be 12-3 with 2-3 ranked wins.  I watched sympathetically yesterday as Coach Zidron slapped his hand on the ground as the game ended.  I went to a HS playoff game last - two very good players from that game are planning to go to Wooster next year. Wooster is just about 50/50 in-state vs out-of-state players, but landing more Ohio players seems to be in their future.

Today's rankings will tell us a lot about SOS versus W/L records that might be a bit inflated due to weak schedules.  I believe OWU will be #1 based on W/L and their SOS - currently the toughest according to Massey.  JCU should be #2 based on the same criteria.  Most interested to see where PSU-B and RHIT are ranked.

[Domino1195]

The "if's and but's" year Wooster has had . . . they could very easily be 12-3 with 2-3 ranked wins.  I watched sympathetically yesterday as Coach Zidron slapped his hand on the ground as the game ended.  I went to a HS playoff game last - two very good players from that game are planning to go to Wooster next year. Wooster is just about 50/50 in-state vs out-of-state players, but landing more Ohio players seems to be in their future.

Today's rankings will tell us a lot about SOS versus W/L records that might be a bit inflated due to weak schedules.  I believe OWU will be #1 based on W/L and their SOS - currently the toughest according to Massey.  JCU should be #2 based on the same criteria.  Most interested to see where PSU-B and RHIT are ranked.

Sorted GL data according to SOS and listed the current week ranking in the right column.  As we have seen, SOS means the most, followed by W's.  Should Teams like Denison, Case and CMU get above .500 they will most likely become ranked.
Kenyon's SOS looking much better as Colorado College, Wheaton and Centre are all currently ranked in their respective regions.

 

Institution	In-Division W/L	In-Division SOS (weighted OWP-OOWP)	Overall WL  Pct	Week 1
John Carroll	11-2-2	0.622	11-2-2	1
Ohio Wesleyan	9-3-3	0.617	9-3-3	3
Ohio Northern	10-4-1	0.613	11-4-1	4
Kenyon	9-1-2	0.594	11-1-2	2
CWRU	5-5-4	0.586	5-5-4
Mount Union	8-2-3	0.574	8-2-3	5
Denison	5-7-1	0.566	5-7-1
Otterbein	9-5-0	0.565	9-5-0	6
Hanover	6-4-1	0.562	7-5-1	7
Carnegie Mellon	6-6-1	0.557	6-6-1
Capital	6-4-3	0.556	6-4-3	8

[Christan Shirk]

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	John Carroll	11-2-2	0.622	--	11-2-2	--
2.	Kenyon	9-1-2	0.594	--	11-1-2	--
3.	Ohio Wesleyan	9-3-3	0.617	--	9-3-3	--
4.	Ohio Northern	10-4-1	0.613	--	11-4-1	--
5.	Mount Union	8-2-3	0.574	--	8-2-3	--
6.	Otterbein	9-5-0	0.565	--	9-5-0	--
7.	Hanover	6-4-1	0.562	--	7-5-1	--
8.	Capital	6-4-3	0.556	--	6-4-3	--

[midwest]

Steady rain in much of the Great Lakes region today, could make for some unexpected results. I had Wabash/OWU live stream up for a bit, and it looks miserable. 0-0 at the half.

Update -- Wabash scores a few minutes into the second half, leads 1-0.

Update, and that's 3 points to Wabash. Kenyon has to be celebrating, as OWU will drop out of 1st in NCAC.

And final update -- lots of misery in Ohio tonight. Pouring rain, winds. If my math is right, Wabash clinched its spot in NCAC tournament by beating OWU, while Kenyon is celebrating being back on top of the NCAC. Oberlin beats Wooster in OT. Denison loses in pouring rain to Wittenberg at W'berg on its senior night. Not the outcomes anyone would have predicted on a regular night, but with those winds and slick ball/fields, a night for the lucky rather than skilled.

[PaulNewman]

As poster midwest foreshadowed, yesterday saw a wild and unpredictable day/night in NCAC land.  We'll never know if the weather was causative or coincidental, but certainly weather days like yesterday are to be expected over the course of a Fall season including in Ohio (and Indiana).  And one might also say that parity in the form of mediocrity yields results like these as well.

The day overall belonged to Wabash.  I honestly did not see Wabash getting a win over OWU for the very first time ever dating back 32 years to 1977 (with OWU 26-0-2 during that span).  The Little Giants could actually win the NCAC if Kenyon has another stumble, and although I'm no expert on the tiebreakers at a minimum Wabash could force OWU to travel for a NCAC semi (where again OWU would be clearly favored).  The bigger news for OWU was ceding control to Kenyon after the Lords had coughed up control courtesy of the same spoiling Wabash crew.

Knowing that they received a gift earlier in the day, Kenyon did not gain a lead at hapless Hiram until the 82nd minute despite a 19 (11) to 2 (1) shots advantage and similar advantage of 13 to 2 for corners.  The Lords should win the next two versus Oberlin and DaPauw (both at home), but that is far from guaranteed.  Even a draw in one of those tilts could lift Wabash or OWU into the top spot.  The Lords surely would like to avoid a trip to a semi in Crawfordsville.

Wooster, after a heartbreak ending against Kenyon, again at home grabbed disappointment out of the jaws of hope and change by dropping a double overtime affair to Oberlin.  A crushing defeat and yet the Scots are still alive given that Oberlin and DePauw are far from locks to pick up another W in their final two.

Denison spit the bit at Wittenberg in a contest that stats-wise was pretty even (with Witt having a slight edge irrc).

At any rate, the top three spots (if not the order) appear set, and the 4th spot is still very much up for grabs with a decent chance of DePauw, Oberlin, Denison and Wooster all sitting at 4-4 heading into a final game.  DePauw versus Wabash mid-week and/or Wooster versus Denison next Saturday could prove determinative.

OWU still will be one of the two favorites to earn the NCAC AQ, and with a strong SoS and gaudy RvR the Battling Bishops should still be in good shape for a Pool C although they are cracking the door open for a nervous selection day if their blemish total reaches 8.

[Domino1195]

Kudos to the camera operator at Wabash Saturday for trying to keep the lens clear of rain, which proved to be an impossible task.  Very difficult to weigh in on what  I saw except to say passing for OWU was way off. After getting the lead Wabash dropped their forwards back to midfield and defied OWU to open them up, which of course proved to be very difficult.  I do not think Wabash goes 2-0 this week, although it's not impossible that they can win at DePauw and Oberlin.  OWU should not have any issues going 2-0. As for the 4th spot - flip a coin. Too much inconsistency from the teams vying for the last place in the NCAC tourney, and this team gets to play at Kenyon so . . .

Hanover has all but clinched home field for the HCAC tourney - should go 2-0 this week but they have a tricky final game away at Defiance, who has a chance to take the 4th spot away from Manchester.

PrAC is still up in the air - Westminster has one conference game left - best they can do is 6-0-2, but if W&J finishes 2-0 they will have home field for the tourney.  Last game of the year at home vs Grove City; assuming these two win their games Wednesday the winner finishes second (or potentially first for W&J).  Westminster tonight at home versus Case . . .

Medaille and PSU-B to get the first round bye's in the AMCC tourney, which starts this Saturday.  I hope we see a rematch for these two teams for the automatic NCAA bid.

JCU has pretty much sewn up 1st in the OAC.  Everything after that is still very wide-open.  Cap played ONU to a draw on Saturday, the weather impacting the first ONU goal - unfortunate for Cap fans.  Cap led twice, the second time conceding the tying goal with 90 seconds left.  With Otterbein currently second at 5-2 and Cap and ONU at 4-2-1, MTU at 3-1-3 - any of these teams can finish in second and get a first round bye. Otterbein away at ONU Wednesday, home Saturday against Cap - they are playing the strongest soccer in Ohio behind JCU at the moment.  They CAN score - unlike most teams in Ohio - and have been in every game since the return of their senior GK (after the Hanover game). I attended the Wilmington game this past Wednesday - they aren't flawless on defense - but they are excellent at controlling midfield and winning 50/50 balls.  ONU is 1-2-1 in their last 4 - and that win was an OT win against struggling Heidelberg.  Current form indicates an away win for Otterbein, but the weather forecast calls for rain beginning Wednesday evening in Ohio . . . ONU then has MTU at home on Saturday.

[Domino1195]

CWRU defeats Westminister 4-1 last evening.  The impact of this game will not factor into regional standings this week but Case's results can be important to many Ohio and GL teams these next two weeks. CWRU is the "Kevin Bacon" of GL teams - all the potential NCAA teams from the region either played Case or are one degree away from Case via an opponent.  Should Case get any positive results this weekend they may find themselves entering the regional rankings as their SOS is plenty strong.

[Christan Shirk]

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	John Carroll	13-2-2	0.614	4-2-1	13-2-2	1
2.	Kenyon	11-1-2	0.573	3-1-1	13-1-2	2
3.	Ohio Wesleyan	10-4-3	0.619	5-3-2	10-4-3	3
4.	Ohio Northern	11-4-2	0.596	3-3-1	12-4-2	4
5.	Mount Union	9-2-4	0.546	1-1-1	9-2-4	5
6.	Otterbein	11-5-0	0.560	1-3-0	11-5-0	6
7.	Hanover	8-4-1	0.550	2-3-0	9-5-1	7
8.	Capital	7-4-4	0.556	1-2-2	7-4-4	8

[Domino1195]

Second regional rankings sorted by SOS.  Might be interesting for some to compare the rise and fall of SOS and RvR as each week passes. These two measures have been most critical to gaining a Pool C in past years.

Not a single change from week 1.  OWU with the strongest SOS in the GL, 10 of their 17 games against ranked opponents - wow. Coach's Poll has them 8th 

In 2017 Capital (12-7-2) jumped CMU (10-4-3) in the last ranking, taking perhaps one of the last Pool C bids in the country.  From week three to week four the changes were as follows:

Week 3:#4 CMU:      SOS .636, RvR 2-3-3#6 Capital:  SOS .586, RvR 3-4
Week 4:#5 Capital:  SOS .609, RvR 4-5-2#6 CMU:      SOS .623, RvR 1-3-3

This also highlights the disadvantage to UAA teams for not having a conference tournament.  Capital played two more games against ranked opponents in the last week due to the OAC tournament, and then benefited from two previously unranked opponents becoming ranked in the fourth rankings.

I also listed the USC Coach's Poll to show how completely irrelevant they are . . .

 

USC	Institution	Vs Ranked	SOS Week 1	SOS Week 2	Week 1 RR	Week 2 RR
#8	Ohio Wesleyan	5-3-2	0.617	0.619	3	3
#1	John Carroll	4-2-1	0.622	0.614	1	1
	Ohio Northern	3-3-1	0.613	0.596	4	4
	CWRU	1-2-3	0.586	0.590
	Carnegie Mellon	0-3-1	0.557	0.576
#2	Kenyon	3-1-1	0.594	0.573	2	2
#6	Otterbein	1-3-0	0.565	0.560	6	6
	Capital	1-2-2	0.556	0.556	8	8
	Heidelberg	0-5-0	0.538	0.554
#10	Hanover	2-3-0	0.562	0.550	7	7
#9	Mount Union	0-5-1	0.574	0.546	5	5
	Denison	1-1-1	0.566	0.546
	Allegheny	0-2-0	0.536	0.540
	Wooster	0-5-1	0.53	0.536
	Marietta	1-4-0	0.508	0.536
	Transylvania	0-6-0	0.538	0.527
	Oberlin	0-4-0	0.516	0.513
	DePauw	0-2-0	0.518	0.503
	Manchester	1-3-0	0.507	0.502
	Baldwin Wallace	1-2-0	0.477	0.502
	Medaille	0-1-0	0.509	0.491
	Grove City	0-1-0	0.491	0.489
	Wittenberg	0-2-0	0.486	0.489
	Hiram	0-2-0	0.478	0.481
	Alfred St.		0.436	0.480
	Wilmington (OH)	1-2-1	0.463	0.477
#4	Rose-Hulman	1-2-0	0.478	0.475
	Anderson (IN)	0-2-0	0.495	0.474
#3	Penn St.-Behrend	1-0-0	0.487	0.470
#5	Wabash	1-0-1	0.451	0.463

[Domino1195]

You can stick a fork in Oberlin and Wooster. NCAC 4th is for DePauw to lose and Denison to make DePauw sweat. Rain going to be a factor in all 7pm Ohio games. 

Capital to use a backup keeper tonight - no other keeper has played a minute for Cap this season. Might see a more defensive, counter attack posture from them I reckon', MM MMMMM.