2019 Pool C

[MRMIKESMITH]

I think it's about of good time to start talking about Pool C.

Top Pool C based on SOS (no more than 1 loss and above .500):

1. Bethel - .691
2. Redlands - .651
3. Wesley - .648
4. UW-Platteville - .620
5. Susquehanna - .606
6. UW-Oshkosh - .605
7. Randolph-Macon - .584
8. Texas Lutheran - .573
9.  Baldwin Wallace - .548
10. Hardin Simmons - .534
11. North Central (Ill.) - .526
12. Linfield - .525 
13. Berry - .512


This list does not include conference leaders that are currently undefeated and have yet to play their "toughest" or current opponent(s) that share similar conference records (i.e Olivet & WNE)

[Ralph Turner]

I think it's about of good time to start talking about Pool C.

Top Pool C based on SOS (no more than 1 loss and above .500):

1. Bethel - .691  , but have to beat the Tommies on 11/10.
2. Redlands - .651 can run the table and have a win over Linfield. Will root for Linfield over Whitworth
3. Wesley - .648  Montclair State (Saturday's opponent) is the hardest team that remains
4. UW-Platteville - .620  Must beat UW-Oshkosh on 11/02.
5. Susquehanna - .606  Can run the table and hopefully have "results versus regionally ranked" Mules and JHU.

6. UW-Oshkosh - .605   Has loss to Salisbury. Must play both UWL, UWP and UWW. Best hope is for Pool A.
7. Randolph-Macon - .584
8. Texas Lutheran - .573
9.  Baldwin Wallace - .548
10. Hardin Simmons - .534
11. North Central (Ill.) - .526
12. Linfield - .525 
13. Berry - .512


This list does not include conference leaders that are currently undefeated and have yet to play their "toughest" or current opponent(s) that share similar conference records (i.e Olivet & WNE)

Thanks for starting this.

You can almost draw the line at #5.

I think that JHU still remains in the South Region rankings to help Susquehanna.

[Oline89]

I think it's about of good time to start talking about Pool C.

Top Pool C based on SOS (no more than 1 loss and above .500):

1. Bethel - .691  , but have to beat the Tommies on 11/10.
2. Redlands - .651 can run the table and have a win over Linfield. Will root for Linfield over Whitworth
3. Wesley - .648  Montclair State (Saturday's opponent) is the hardest team that remains
4. UW-Platteville - .620  Must beat UW-Oshkosh on 11/02.
5. Susquehanna - .606  Can run the table and hopefully have "results versus regionally ranked" Mules and JHU.

6. UW-Oshkosh - .605   Has loss to Salisbury. Must play both UWL, UWP and UWW. Best hope is for Pool A.
7. Randolph-Macon - .584
8. Texas Lutheran - .573
9.  Baldwin Wallace - .548
10. Hardin Simmons - .534
11. North Central (Ill.) - .526
12. Linfield - .525 
13. Berry - .512


This list does not include conference leaders that are currently undefeated and have yet to play their "toughest" or current opponent(s) that share similar conference records (i.e Olivet & WNE)

Thanks for starting this.

You can almost draw the line at #5.

I think that JHU still remains in the South Region rankings to help Susquehanna.

I have to believe either Union or Ithaca will be in this group as well.  One will be  10-0 (and league champ) the other will be 9-1

[USee]

I think it's about of good time to start talking about Pool C.

Top Pool C based on SOS (no more than 1 loss and above .500):

1. Bethel - .691  , but have to beat the Tommies on 11/10.
2. Redlands - .651 can run the table and have a win over Linfield. Will root for Linfield over Whitworth
3. Wesley - .648  Montclair State (Saturday's opponent) is the hardest team that remains
4. UW-Platteville - .620  Must beat UW-Oshkosh on 11/02.
5. Susquehanna - .606  Can run the table and hopefully have "results versus regionally ranked" Mules and JHU.

6. UW-Oshkosh - .605   Has loss to Salisbury. Must play both UWL, UWP and UWW. Best hope is for Pool A.
7. Randolph-Macon - .584
8. Texas Lutheran - .573
9.  Baldwin Wallace - .548
10. Hardin Simmons - .534
11. North Central (Ill.) - .526
12. Linfield - .525 
13. Berry - .512


This list does not include conference leaders that are currently undefeated and have yet to play their "toughest" or current opponent(s) that share similar conference records (i.e Olivet & WNE)

Thanks for starting this.

You can almost draw the line at #5.

I think that JHU still remains in the South Region rankings to help Susquehanna.

problem is the process won't allow 4 west teams to the table at the same time. It's not as clear cut as picking the top 5 based on criteria. The order of the RAC's ranking matters a lot.

[MRMIKESMITH]

I think it's about of good time to start talking about Pool C.

Top Pool C based on SOS (no more than 1 loss and above .500):

1. Bethel - .691  , but have to beat the Tommies on 11/10.
2. Redlands - .651 can run the table and have a win over Linfield. Will root for Linfield over Whitworth
3. Wesley - .648  Montclair State (Saturday's opponent) is the hardest team that remains
4. UW-Platteville - .620  Must beat UW-Oshkosh on 11/02.
5. Susquehanna - .606  Can run the table and hopefully have "results versus regionally ranked" Mules and JHU.

6. UW-Oshkosh - .605   Has loss to Salisbury. Must play both UWL, UWP and UWW. Best hope is for Pool A.
7. Randolph-Macon - .584
8. Texas Lutheran - .573
9.  Baldwin Wallace - .548
10. Hardin Simmons - .534
11. North Central (Ill.) - .526
12. Linfield - .525 
13. Berry - .512


This list does not include conference leaders that are currently undefeated and have yet to play their "toughest" or current opponent(s) that share similar conference records (i.e Olivet & WNE)

Thanks for starting this.

You can almost draw the line at #5.

I think that JHU still remains in the South Region rankings to help Susquehanna.

I have to believe either Union or Ithaca will be in this group as well.  One will be  10-0 (and league champ) the other will be 9-1

At the current time, Ithaca would be slotted at #9 with a .549 SOS, however if everything plays out based upon rankings, Hobart may end of regionally ranked at 8-2 at end of the year. Currently I think the East Region may end up:

1. Ithaca (10-0) (3-0)
2. Salisbury (9-0) (1-0)
3. Wesley (9-1) (2-1)
4. Cortland (9-1)(0-1)
5. Union (9-1) (1-1)
6. Delaware Valley (9-1)(1-1)
7. WPI  (10-0) (0-0)
8. Endicott (9-1) (0-1)
9. Hobart (8-2) (0-2)
10. Stevenson (8-2) (0-2)


Currently, Union has a .459 and that may not be enough considering the other regions.

[Ralph Turner]

I think it's about of good time to start talking about Pool C.

Top Pool C based on SOS (no more than 1 loss and above .500):

1. Bethel - .691  , but have to beat the Tommies on 11/10.
2. Redlands - .651 can run the table and have a win over Linfield. Will root for Linfield over Whitworth
3. Wesley - .648  Montclair State (Saturday's opponent) is the hardest team that remains
4. UW-Platteville - .620  Must beat UW-Oshkosh on 11/02.
5. Susquehanna - .606  Can run the table and hopefully have "results versus regionally ranked" Mules and JHU.

6. UW-Oshkosh - .605   Has loss to Salisbury. Must play both UWL, UWP and UWW. Best hope is for Pool A.
7. Randolph-Macon - .584
8. Texas Lutheran - .573
9.  Baldwin Wallace - .548
10. Hardin Simmons - .534
11. North Central (Ill.) - .526
12. Linfield - .525 
13. Berry - .512


This list does not include conference leaders that are currently undefeated and have yet to play their "toughest" or current opponent(s) that share similar conference records (i.e Olivet & WNE)

Thanks for starting this.

You can almost draw the line at #5.

I think that JHU still remains in the South Region rankings to help Susquehanna.

problem is the process won't allow 4 west teams to the table at the same time. It's not as clear cut as picking the top 5 based on criteria. The order of the RAC's ranking matters a lot.

In my best Titan Q form,

Round 1

N: BWC;  North Central
E: Wesley;  Union
S: Susquehanna; after that we have 2-loss Randy-Mac (JHU and Bridgewater), TLU (Hendrix and UMHB); HSU (TLU and UMHB)
W: Bethel 1 loss to SJU. Bethel comes off. Redlands up next. UWP/UWO winner is next

Round 2

N: BWC;  North Central
E: Wesley;  Union
S: Susquehanna; after that we have 2-loss Randy-Mac (JHU and Bridgewater), TLU (Hendrix and UMHB); HSU (TLU and UMHB)
W: Redlands up next & assuming that Linfield is regionally ranked. Redlands comes off.  UWP/UWO winner is next.

Round 3

N: BWC;  North Central
E: Wesley;  (Win over Del Valley who is reg ranked.) Wesley off.  Union
S: Susquehanna; after that we have 2-loss Randy-Mac (JHU and Bridgewater), TLU (Hendrix and UMHB); HSU (TLU and UMHB)
W: UWP/UWO winner is next.

Round 4

N: BWC;  North Central
E:  Union
S: Susquehanna; Susquehanna is off.  After that we have 2-loss Randy-Mac (JHU and Bridgewater), TLU (Hendrix and UMHB); HSU (TLU and UMHB)
W: UWP/UWO winner is next.  The winner of this game might have a 2-1 record against RR teams, i.e., loss to UWW, win over the other and maybe UWL.  UWP/UWO Loser is next or maybe NWC runner up, Whitworth/Linfield.


Round 5

N: BWC;  North Central
E:  Union
S: After that we have 2-loss Randy-Mac (JHU and Bridgewater), TLU (Hendrix and UMHB); HSU (TLU and UMHB)
W: UWP/UWO winner is next.  The winner of this game might have a 2-1 record against RR teams, i.e., loss to UWW, win over the other and maybe UWL.  UWP/ UWO winner comes off last. UWP/UWO Loser is left on the table or maybe NWC runner up, Whitworth/Linfield.

[Ralph Turner]

I am projecting South Region Pool A bids to go to:

ASC -- UMHB
Centennial -- Muhlenberg
ODAC -- Bridgewater
Pres AC  -- CWRU
SAA -- Berry
USA South -- Averett

[USee]

I might be wrong but I would be shocked NCC isn't the top ranked Pool C from North when the regional rankings come out. they will have a 1-1 RRO and their SOS is getting killed by CNU.

[wally_wabash]

I'm working on some Pool C stuff...will try to post what I think the RRs would look like through results of 10/19 a little later.

[USee]

Actually, I stand corrected. If IWU loses to NCC and wins out otherwise they end up 7-3 and borderline wrong side of the bubble to get ranked in the region which would leave NCC at 0-1 for RRO. That, bad the demise of CNU and the fluke loss to UWL by IWU may end up costing NCC huge come Pool C if there are a lot of 1 loss teams.

[wally_wabash]

Here's what I think is a reasonable look at what the regional rankings might look like if we saw them this week:

East:
1. Salisbury 5-0 overall, 0.566 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO
2. Ithaca 6-0, 0.549, 0-0
3. Cortland 6-0, 0.480, 0-0
4. Wesley 4-1, 0.648, 2-1
5. Union 6-0, 0.459, 0-0
6. Delaware Valley 6-1, 0.535, 0-1
7. Western Connecticut 6-0, 0.434, 0-0
8. WPI 6-0, 0.421, 0-0
9. Endicott 5-1, 0.441, 0-1
10. Brockport 5-1, 0.491, 0-0

The East is difficult to rank because a good number of the New England teams with zero or one loss have yet to play each other and thin that crowd out.  That logjam is preventing a team like Hobart from being ranked, which would be a helper to the other LL teams. 

North:
1. Mount Union 6-0, 0.531, 2-0
2. Wheaton 6-0, 0.655, 1-0
3. North Central 5-1, 0.526, 0-1
4. Baldwin-Wallace 5-1, 0.548, 1-1
5. John Carroll 5-1, 0.482, 0-1
6. Olivet 6-0, 0.520, 0-0
7. Hope 5-1, 0.489, 1-0
8. Aurora 5-1, 0.555, 0-1
9. MSJ 6-0, 0.366, 0-0
10. Heidelberg 5-1, 0.476, 0-1

So obviously these rankings are not going to hold four OAC teams through week 11, but we've still got h2h's with the top four in that league to go.  It's also unlikely that the NCAC is going to not be represented at all when we get to official rankings on 11/6, but for now I don't know how to square 5-1 Denison and OWU with the h2h loss to Wabash, who I'm not ranking here.

South:
1. UMHB 6-0, 0.371, 0-0
2. Muhlenberg 6-0, 0.623, 1-0
3. CWRU 6-0, 0.482, 0-0
4. Randolph-Macon 6-1, 0.584, 1-0
5. Susquehanna 5-1, 0.606, 0-1
6. Texas Lutheran 5-1, 0.573, 1-0
7. Hardin-Simmons 5-1, 0.534, 0-1
8. Bridgewater 6-0, 0.484, 0-0
9. Berry 6-1, 0.512, 0-0
10. Averett 5-1, 0.518, 0-1

I think the South region lays out in a pretty straightforward manner.  Yes, UMHB's metrics are gross.  Doesn't matter.  There's no way they aren't ranked #1 here.  I have Hopkins just out, which made me shuffle Susquehanna and RMC.  Which maybe I shouldn't do since that's a common opponent. 

West:
1. UW-Whitewater 5-0, 0.633, 1-0
2. St. John's 6-0, 0.580, 1-0
3. Chapman 5-0, 0.588, 2-0
4. Wartburg 7-0, 0.583, 0-0
5. Redlands 5-1, 0.651, 1-1
6. Bethel 5-1, 0.691, 0-1
7. UW-Oshkosh 5-1, 0.605, 0-1
8. Whitworth 4-1, 0.539, 0-1
9. Linfield 4-1, 0.525, 0-1
10. UW-Platteville 4-1, 0.620, 0-1

This is just going to be razor thin between UWW and SJU all the way to Selection Sunday.  Right now, with St. Thomas just out of these rankings, SJU doesn't quite have enough to overcome the large SOS difference, IMO.  The top two could certainly be reversed without controversy.  Through 11 games though, I do think the top ranked West team gets decided based on which league (MIAC or WIAC) can get a third team to stick into these rankings. 

[desertcat1]

Nice job wally 

[Captainred81]

East:
1. Salisbury 5-0 overall, 0.566 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO
2. Ithaca 6-0, 0.549, 0-0
3. Cortland 6-0, 0.480, 0-0
4. Wesley 4-1, 0.648, 2-1
5. Union 6-0, 0.459, 0-0
6. Delaware Valley 6-1, 0.535, 0-1
7. Western Connecticut 6-0, 0.434, 0-0
8. WPI 6-0, 0.421, 0-0
9. Endicott 5-1, 0.441, 0-1
10. Brockport 5-1, 0.491, 0-0

The East is difficult to rank because a good number of the New England teams with zero or one loss have yet to play each other and thin that crowd out.  That logjam is preventing a team like Hobart from being ranked, which would be a helper to the other LL teams.

I think you got this one exactly right.  In this case, Wesley would be the first option for pool C

North:
1. Mount Union 6-0, 0.531, 2-0
2. Wheaton 6-0, 0.655, 1-0
3. North Central 5-1, 0.526, 0-1
4. Baldwin-Wallace 5-1, 0.548, 1-1
5. John Carroll 5-1, 0.482, 0-1
6. Olivet 6-0, 0.520, 0-0
7. Hope 5-1, 0.489, 1-0
8. Aurora 5-1, 0.555, 0-1
9. MSJ 6-0, 0.366, 0-0
10. Heidelberg 5-1, 0.476, 0-1

So obviously these rankings are not going to hold four OAC teams through week 11, but we've still got h2h's with the top four in that league to go.  It's also unlikely that the NCAC is going to not be represented at all when we get to official rankings on 11/6, but for now I don't know how to square 5-1 Denison and OWU with the h2h loss to Wabash, who I'm not ranking here.

I agree with you here as well, that there are still too many variables, but i do think if Denison wins this week against Witt, that they will make the list.


South:
1. UMHB 6-0, 0.371, 0-0
2. Muhlenberg 6-0, 0.623, 1-0
3. CWRU 6-0, 0.482, 0-0
4. Randolph-Macon 6-1, 0.584, 1-0
5. Susquehanna 5-1, 0.606, 0-1
6. Texas Lutheran 5-1, 0.573, 1-0
7. Hardin-Simmons 5-1, 0.534, 0-1
8. Bridgewater 6-0, 0.484, 0-0
9. Berry 6-1, 0.512, 0-0
10. Averett 5-1, 0.518, 0-1

I think the South region lays out in a pretty straightforward manner.  Yes, UMHB's metrics are gross.  Doesn't matter.  There's no way they aren't ranked #1 here.  I have Hopkins just out, which made me shuffle Susquehanna and RMC.  Which maybe I shouldn't do since that's a common opponent.

I think you're right on the money here, but many more changes coming...me thinks

West:
1. UW-Whitewater 5-0, 0.633, 1-0
2. St. John's 6-0, 0.580, 1-0
3. Chapman 5-0, 0.588, 2-0
4. Wartburg 7-0, 0.583, 0-0
5. Redlands 5-1, 0.651, 1-1
6. Bethel 5-1, 0.691, 0-1
7. UW-Oshkosh 5-1, 0.605, 0-1
8. Whitworth 4-1, 0.539, 0-1
9. Linfield 4-1, 0.525, 0-1
10. UW-Platteville 4-1, 0.620, 0-1

This is just going to be razor thin between UWW and SJU all the way to Selection Sunday.  Right now, with St. Thomas just out of these rankings, SJU doesn't quite have enough to overcome the large SOS difference, IMO.  The top two could certainly be reversed without controversy.  Through 11 games though, I do think the top ranked West team gets decided based on which league (MIAC or WIAC) can get a third team to stick into these rankings.

Agree, agree , agree...so far,

[wally_wabash]

East:
I think you got this one exactly right.  In this case, Wesley would be the first option for pool C

Wesley looks great for Pool C currently.  They look less great if Endicott loses and doesn't get ranked.  Their SOS is great now, but will come down considerably over the last four weeks.  I think by the time we get to the end, it's going to be difficult to order Wesley/LL runner up/E8 runner up.  That could be a really tough trio to sort. 

North:

I agree with you here as well, that there are still too many variables, but i do think if Denison wins this week against Witt, that they will make the list.

If Denison gets ranked, does that drag Wabash up?  It almost has to.  Then who goes out?  There may be room for two NCACs once we get some more MIAA and OAC attrition. 

South:

I think you're right on the money here, but many more changes coming...me thinks

Yes, HSU and TLU both have UMHB games left.  Muhlenberg has Hopkins left and that's a game with a weird dynamic now that Muhlenberg has a cushion over Hopkins.  Have to keep an eye on Birmingham Southern now as well.  And then there's a big ODAC showdown still to come.  Definitely a lot left to do in the South.  What's strange though is that last year this region had three legitimate at-large teams and this year I'm not sure they have more than one.  And they may not have any if Susquehanna drops a game here in the last month. 

[hazzben]

RE: West

1. UWW/SJU is gonna come down to the wire, hinging on how the rest of their leagues play out.
2. Wartburg still has to play a dangerous Central team and Coe, both have only 1 loss. The ARC could still cannibalize itself, making room for MIAC/WIAC's third team in the rankings.
3. Linfield v. Whitworth looms large, especially for Redlands.
4. Redlands v. Bethel. Does the committee favor SOS or RRO criteria. My gut says Bethel wins out (on the strength of it's own rep and the MIAC's) and Bethel is slotted above Redlands. At least initially. Bethel also has a much more difficult path ahead of it.
5. UWO: If they lose to UWW, and beat UWL and UWP, they will have effectively knocked the WIAC out of Pool C.

Key Games for West Pool C Candidates:
Bethel: @ Concordia, @ UST
Redlands: (just Linfield v. Whitworth result)
Linfield: @Whitworth
UWO: @UWL, @UWO, UWW (likely out of contention with UWW loss, but could reek havoc)
UWP: UWO
Central: Simpson, @Wartburg, Coe (not really a Pool C candidate, but how they finish could knock Wartburg into the discussion)
Whitworth: Linfield

Redlands is the most likely to win out. If Bethel wins out their resume with the UST win improves. WIAC could be a mess, though UWP appears the best Pool C candidate and has the clearest path. Keep an eye on the ARC, I think Central (and their QB) might be a dark horse Pool A.