2019 Pool C

[MonroviaCat]

Keep in mind Bethel's SOS will jump this week with STT on the docket and NCC's will trend lower while playing 4-5 Millikin. And JCU SOS will jump as well playing BW. Some really tenuous waters for these pool C teams.

Redlands SoS will also drop like a rock after playing winless Occidental.

I  just typed and posted this at the same time as you----deleted it as it was redundant!   

[tf37]

I hope common sense prevails in the case of North Central.

It may be that the North RAC is moving JCU up so that if/when NCC gets taken, they will be a higher ranked team on the North board than other teams from other regions. I have no idea why they would bump JCU over Hope and Aurora with inferior criteria.

It is these types of changes that makes it seem like the criteria doesn't truly matter for a region.

[wally_wabash]

I hope common sense prevails in the case of North Central.

It may be that the North RAC is moving JCU up so that if/when NCC gets taken, they will be a higher ranked team on the North board than other teams from other regions. I have no idea why they would bump JCU over Hope and Aurora with inferior criteria.

But their regional rank has no bearing. Doesn't matter if it's N4 vs W6... W6 will still be selected first if they're better.

It might not help, but it definitely can't hurt to put a North #4 sticker on that team.

[AO]

I hope common sense prevails in the case of North Central.

It may be that the North RAC is moving JCU up so that if/when NCC gets taken, they will be a higher ranked team on the North board than other teams from other regions. I have no idea why they would bump JCU over Hope and Aurora with inferior criteria.

But their regional rank has no bearing. Doesn't matter if it's N4 vs W6... W6 will still be selected first if they're better.

It might not help, but it definitely can't hurt to put a North #4 sticker on that team.

I've also heard various committee chairs talk about results versus regionally ranked opponents as if beating the #2 in the one region could be considered equal to beating the #2 team in any other region.

[USee]

Keep in mind Bethel's SOS will jump this week with STT on the docket and NCC's will trend lower while playing 4-5 Millikin. And JCU SOS will jump as well playing BW. Some really tenuous waters for these pool C teams.

Redlands SoS will also drop like a rock after playing winless Occidental.

Probably about .40. And Bethel will bump back up to probably around .530 so Redlands may fall below Wartburg but still ahead of Bethel. And they will be 1-1 vs RRO which will be big after Wartburg gets picked (probably early)

[MRMIKESMITH]

Hopefully I have these numbers all correct

Wesley: 7-1, 1-1 RRO, .560 SOS
Cortland: 8-1, 0-1 RRO, .466 SOS

North Central: 8-1, 0-1 RRO, .498 SOS
John Carroll: 8-1, 0-1 RRO, .489 SOS

Susquehanna: 8-1, 0-1 RRO, .548 SOS
Randolph-Macon: 7-2, 0-1 RRO, .582 SOS

Redlands: 8-1, 1-1 RRO, .596 SOS
Wartburg: 8-1, 1-1 RRO, .576 SOS
Bethel: 8-1, 0-1 RRO, .494 SOS

First three picks seem super easy, fourth round has a clear SOS edge, then 5th round is a photo finish. I'm sure Wally will have a more detailed mock selection soon.
1) Wesley, North Central, Susquehanna, Redlands
2) Wesley, North Central, Susquehanna, Wartburg
3) Wesley, North Central, Susquehanna, Bethel
4) Cortland, North Central, Susquehanna, Bethel
5) Cortland, North Central, Randolph-Macon, Bethel (too close to call)

Wesley is 2-1 RRO, with wins over Delaware Valley and Endicott

[bluestreak66]

I hope common sense prevails in the case of North Central.

It may be that the North RAC is moving JCU up so that if/when NCC gets taken, they will be a higher ranked team on the North board than other teams from other regions. I have no idea why they would bump JCU over Hope and Aurora with inferior criteria.

Time for a hot take. If this seems like blatant homerism, oh well! 
I have for a long time thought that the SOS metric (which appears to give an edge to Hope and Aurora) is flawed. This year kind of supports that. Look at John Carroll vs. BW. They are getting the same SOS from the rest of the OAC (since each has played the 8 other teams), but BW is higher in SOS because according to the metric, Alma, BW's non-con, is a better game than UW Stevens Point, JCU's non-con. I don't think there is anybody who honestly thinks in a hypothetical Alma vs. UWSP game, Alma would have any chance of winning.
That shows an underlying issue where teams from weaker conferences are getting propped up because the general strength of conferences are not taken into account when SOS is calculated. Despite what some people might think, an 8-1 record out of the NACC or MIAA is not as impressive as an 8-1 Record out of the OAC or CCIW.

[AO]

I hope common sense prevails in the case of North Central.

It may be that the North RAC is moving JCU up so that if/when NCC gets taken, they will be a higher ranked team on the North board than other teams from other regions. I have no idea why they would bump JCU over Hope and Aurora with inferior criteria.

Time for a hot take. If this seems like blatant homerism, oh well! 
I have for a long time thought that the SOS metric (which appears to give an edge to Hope and Aurora) is flawed. This year kind of supports that. Look at John Carroll vs. BW. They are getting the same SOS from the rest of the OAC (since each has played the 8 other teams), but BW is higher in SOS because according to the metric, Alma, BW's non-con, is a better game than UW Stevens Point, JCU's non-con. I don't think there is anybody who honestly thinks in a hypothetical Alma vs. UWSP game, Alma would have any chance of winning.
That shows an underlying issue where teams from weaker conferences are getting propped up because the general strength of conferences are not taken into account when SOS is calculated. Despite what some people might think, an 8-1 record out of the NACC or MIAA is not as impressive as an 8-1 Record out of the OAC or CCIW.

It's definitely a bad statistic.  For the purposes of this conversation I think we're just resigned to using it, completely ignoring whether it actually means anything.

[smedindy]

It's better than what they used to have, for sure. The main issue is a very limited set of data points, along with no analytical factors.

Of Redlands their SOS dip won't be big enough to justify Bethel leaping them, nor Bethel leaping Wartburg. Bethel's best move is pray for chaos.

[Baldini]

It's better than what they used to have, for sure. The main issue is a very limited set of data points, along with no analytical factors.

Of Redlands their SOS dip won't be big enough to justify Bethel leaping them, nor Bethel leaping Wartburg. Bethel's best move is pray for chaos.

Bethel first must take care of their own business, but if they do that then a lose by Wartburg OR Central probably gets them in. Baldwin-Wallace beating John Carroll wouldn't hurt either, just to make sure of it.

[WW]

It's better than what they used to have, for sure. The main issue is a very limited set of data points, along with no analytical factors.

Of Redlands their SOS dip won't be big enough to justify Bethel leaping them, nor Bethel leaping Wartburg. Bethel's best move is pray for chaos.

Welp, not too much chaos. An Oshkosh win would effectively end their season.

[hazzben]

Bethel needs to beat a good UST for any of it to matter.

But SNC beating Monmouth, and Coe or Loras winning would go a long ways. As would Ithaca not losing 3 straight. 

[smedindy]

A win of course, and then losses by Cortland, John Carroll, Wartburg, and Central. Berry won't get any help from Austin. I don't think there is any way that Wesley, North Central, Susquehanna, or Redlands loses. That's how Bethel can get in for sure if they win.

A win by Olivet over Albion puts them at 9-1 with a good SOS and probably second on the North board.

[Baldini]

A win of course, and then losses by Cortland, John Carroll, Wartburg, and Central. Berry won't get any help from Austin. I don't think there is any way that Wesley, North Central, Susquehanna, or Redlands loses. That's how Bethel can get in for sure if they win.

A win by Olivet over Albion puts them at 9-1 with a good SOS and probably second on the North board.

IMO you have made this look much more dire then it is. A Bethel win combined with a Wartburg or Central lose probably gets them in.

[hazzben]

Yeah, I think it's just a BU win and win by Coe/Loras as well. Ithaca and SNC are just extra breathing room.