2019 Pool C

[bluestreak66]

RE: West

1. UWW/SJU is gonna come down to the wire, hinging on how the rest of their leagues play out.
2. Wartburg still has to play a dangerous Central team and Coe, both have only 1 loss. The ARC could still cannibalize itself, making room for MIAC/WIAC's third team in the rankings.
3. Linfield v. Whitworth looms large, especially for Redlands.
4. Redlands v. Bethel. Does the committee favor SOS or RRO criteria. My gut says Bethel wins out (on the strength of it's own rep and the MIAC's) and Bethel is slotted above Redlands. At least initially. Bethel also has a much more difficult path ahead of it.
5. UWO: If they lose to UWW, and beat UWL and UWP, they will have effectively knocked the WIAC out of Pool C.

Key Games for West Pool C Candidates:
Bethel: @ Concordia, @ UST
Redlands: (just Linfield v. Whitworth result)
Linfield: @Whitworth
UWO: @UWL, @UWO, UWW (likely out of contention with UWW loss, but could reek havoc)
UWP: UWO
Central: Simpson, @Wartburg, Coe (not really a Pool C candidate, but how they finish could knock Wartburg into the discussion)
Whitworth: Linfield

Redlands is the most likely to win out. If Bethel wins out their resume with the UST win improves. WIAC could be a mess, though UWP appears the best Pool C candidate and has the clearest path. Keep an eye on the ARC, I think Central (and their QB) might be a dark horse Pool A.

Abosolutley agree on this point. In addition to UWO winning out (sans the UWW game) I could envision a world where most of the usual suspects for two bids get left out of pool c, if the following occur:
Bethel losing to St. Thomas
John Carroll losing to Heidleberg but beating Baldwin Wallace
North Central losing to IWU.
I would say those scenarios have at least a decent chance at happening, so we may see some unusual pool c representation this year!

[wally_wabash]

Is it farfetched to think UWO may get in with 2 losses, if those 2 losses are to Salisbury and UWW?

This is an interesting scenario, particularly if UWW and Salisbury both wind up #1 ranked teams in their regions.  It depends on where UWO ends up in the West rankings, but they would be a fascinating case for sure. 

[hazzben]

Is it farfetched to think UWO may get in with 2 losses, if those 2 losses are to Salisbury and UWW?

It's too early to say. It really depends on the quality of the other 1 loss Pool C candidates. If there is a lack of quality 1 loss teams, or just a lack of one loss teams it could happen. Right now we've listed 13 1 loss teams with a SOS over .500. Not all will finish that way, but we are also a long way from there being short of quality 1 loss teams. But stranger things have happened. And they'd have about the best resume possible for a two loss team.

[Captainred81]

Round 5

N: BWC;  North Central
E:  Union
S: After that we have 2-loss Randy-Mac (JHU and Bridgewater), TLU (Hendrix and UMHB); HSU (TLU and UMHB)
W: UWP/UWO winner is next.  The winner of this game might have a 2-1 record against RR teams, i.e., loss to UWW, win over the other and maybe UWL.  UWP/ UWO winner comes off last. UWP/UWO Loser is left on the table or maybe NWC runner up, Whitworth/Linfield.

I like what you did up until this point.  I think the only chance for a WIAC team to earn Pool C is for UWP to win out and finish 9-1, or UWO to win (beat UWW) and win the Pool A which puts UWW in line for Pool C.

If these are the teams left for the final pool C  I would expect the committee to take NCC, unless BW is ranked higher.  Also, if Union's loss to Ithaca is by a few points, it could be them.  I don't think the committee takes a two loss team this year. 

[Baldini]

With 4 weeks to play I would guess that #15 Hardin-Simmons is already playing an elimination game for themselves this weekend against #1 Mary Hardin-Baylor? Hard to believe their is any scenario where HSU could get in with 2 losses or am I missing something? 

[hazzben]

With 4 weeks to play I would guess that #15 Hardin-Simmons is already playing an elimination game for themselves this weekend against #1 Mary Hardin-Baylor? Hard to believe their is any scenario where HSU could get in with 2 losses or am I missing something?

I tend to think so. Their 2 loss resume wouldn't stack up well against say, UWO's potential 2 loss resume.

[wally_wabash]

With 4 weeks to play I would guess that #15 Hardin-Simmons is already playing an elimination game for themselves this weekend against #1 Mary Hardin-Baylor? Hard to believe their is any scenario where HSU could get in with 2 losses or am I missing something?

As is the case with any two-loss team, they kind of have to hope that the field comes back to them over the last few weeks of the season.  In Hardin-Simmons' case, you want to start with the South region and watch the scoreboard for those other 1-loss runners up to find a loss in the last few weeks. 

[MonroviaCat]

With 4 weeks to play I would guess that #15 Hardin-Simmons is already playing an elimination game for themselves this weekend against #1 Mary Hardin-Baylor? Hard to believe their is any scenario where HSU could get in with 2 losses or am I missing something?

As is the case with any two-loss team, they kind of have to hope that the field comes back to them over the last few weeks of the season.  In Hardin-Simmons' case, you want to start with the South region and watch the scoreboard for those other 1-loss runners up to find a loss in the last few weeks.

And I'm assuming they'd be stuck behind TLU assuming they both finish with 2 losses....

[UfanBill]

I thought the Crew stole one today. The play clock expired. In reality all those teams that are in Pool C contention dodged a bullet. It's very unlikely the ASC will get 2 bids now but if UMHB had lost... 

[Pat Coleman]

I thought the Crew stole one today. The play clock expired.

The video showed otherwise.

[UfanBill]

I thought the Crew stole one today. The play clock expired.

The video showed otherwise.

At the time I made this comment I had just watched the UMHB video with their announcing crew. I believe they said the play clock was running down, 9 seconds, and the Cru FG unit wasn't out there yet. Their comments and the subsequent reaction of the officials led me to believe the play clock probably had expired. All credit to UMHB and the kicker to get the kick off and make it.

[Pat Coleman]

I thought the Crew stole one today. The play clock expired.

The video showed otherwise.

At the time I made this comment I had just watched the UMHB video with their announcing crew. I believe they said the play clock was running down, 9 seconds, and the Cru FG unit wasn't out there yet. Their comments and the subsequent reaction of the officials led me to believe the play clock probably had expired. All credit to UMHB and the kicker to get the kick off and make it.

That's this one:
https://twitter.com/UMHB/status/1188237617462218752

It was fourth down and game clock was running and under 25. Play clock wasn't relevant in that situation.

[hazzben]

UWO out of the running. UWP looking stronger for Pool C.

SJU knocked longshot St. Olaf out.

UMHB winning a squeaker keeps Pool C from falling into chaos.

[USee]

I think the 5 Pool C teams as of today would be:

Redlands
UW Platteville
Wesley
Bethel
NCC

with other possibles:

Susquehanna
BW/John Carroll winner

If someone like UW Lacrosse pulls an upset of UWW then this whole thing becomes a dumpster fire pretty quickly. Still some tough games to be played and it could all work itself out but still shaping up to be some tough choices for Pool C.

[hazzben]

I think the 5 Pool C teams as of today would be:

Redlands
UW Platteville
Wesley
Bethel
NCC

with other possibles:

Susquehanna
BW/John Carroll winner

If someone like UW Lacrosse pulls an upset of UWW then this whole thing becomes a dumpster fire pretty quickly. Still some tough games to be played and it could all work itself out but still shaping up to be some tough choices for Pool C.

The subtext to this post ... a ton rides on how the West Region ranks Redlands, UWP, and Bethel and by extension teams like UST, Linfield, UWL, etc (for RRO aspects of West Pool C candidates). Also a lot riding on how the North Region ranks NCC, BW, and John Carroll. Per usual, two very tough regions, with some good teams that will no doubt get left home.