2019 Pool C

[Oline89]

I think the 5 Pool C teams as of today would be:

Redlands
UW Platteville
Wesley
Bethel
NCC

with other possibles:

Susquehanna
BW/John Carroll winner

If someone like UW Lacrosse pulls an upset of UWW then this whole thing becomes a dumpster fire pretty quickly. Still some tough games to be played and it could all work itself out but still shaping up to be some tough choices for Pool C.

The Ithaca- Union game will have some bearing here as well.  If Union wins, then Ithaca wins out (beating a potentially undefeated Cortland), then IC certainly will be in the Pool C mix.  If Ithaca wins, it may be tougher for Union (their RRO may include Hobart only)

[wm4]

I think the 5 Pool C teams as of today would be:

Redlands
UW Platteville
Wesley
Bethel
NCC

with other possibles:

Susquehanna
BW/John Carroll winner

If someone like UW Lacrosse pulls an upset of UWW then this whole thing becomes a dumpster fire pretty quickly. Still some tough games to be played and it could all work itself out but still shaping up to be some tough choices for Pool C.

The subtext to this post ... a ton rides on how the West Region ranks Redlands, UWP, and Bethel and by extension teams like UST, Linfield, UWL, etc (for RRO aspects of West Pool C candidates). Also a lot riding on how the North Region ranks NCC, BW, and John Carroll. Per usual, two very tough regions, with some good teams that will no doubt get left home.

This is shaping up to be a great last 3 weeks of the season.  The West will be a blast to watch and see how teams play on the field, but also how the RRO's play out a well.  Get your popcorn ready.  We've had some nice fireworks so far this year and I don't think they're done yet.

[hazzben]

Absolutely.

And don't sleep on Gustavus Adolphus. Two losses and an SOS of 0.542.

But if GAC beats UST (lost a heartbreaker 14-13 in the final minute last year) and Bethel beats UST. GAC would have two losses, but only to top 10 SJU and Bethel, and it was competitive in both games. GAC getting Regionally Ranked would also be big for SJU and their 1 seed resume and Bethel and their Pool C.

[USee]

Bethel is not gonna need GAC most likely. They are in if they win out. #1 seeds are going to be very interesting and down to the wire it would appear. Regardless, there are likely going to be some top teams playing each other early in the bracket this year.

[Captainred81]

I occasionally go back and look at past brackets to see how they shake out.  Here's the 2013 bracket.

https://d2o2figo6ddd0g.cloudfront.net/g/7/lu3r9gtmvhoo9s/football-bracket-2013.pdf

It seems as though Mount gets the nod as the East Region bracket, while Bethel got the north region, Whitewater got the west, and UMHB got the south.  It could happen this year as well, that Mount moves to the east, with SJU/UWW splitting the West and North and UMHB taking the south. 

Also, in 2015, it seems to be the same scenario, with mount in the East, Linfield in the west, St. Thomas in the North, and Oshksoh being South?
https://d2o2figo6ddd0g.cloudfront.net/u/m/flx1g4yytme2ni/2015-football-bracket.pdf

I would like to point out that every year except 2017 the runner-up in the OAC has received a bid to the playoffs, including 2015 8-2 Ohio Northern.  My point with this, is that I don't see John Carrol/BW winner getting left at home. 

So i have the first 3 pool C bids at
Redlands
JCU (Cuz I think they'll win)
Wesley

Each of these team will have multiple results against RRO and each will have (1) win (assumptions: BW is RR and the other win out)

The next 2 are going to interesting.  I think the favorites for those spots are Susquehanna, NCC, Bethel and UW-P.  Each of them will have a RR loass to the #1/#2 seed in their region, but none them will have a RR win.  It is possible that when Bethel plays STU, that they are ranked, but if Bethel wins it could knock STU out, thus they will not garner an RR win.  It is possible that Wash U is ranked and give NCC a win, and it possible that Johns Hopkins is ranked and gives Susque a win, lastly it is possible that UW-Lax is ranked and gives UW-P a win. 

If it happens that all them have 1 RR win, or none of them get an RR win, I think that UW-P and Bethel will get the bid..leaving the field at

Redlands
John Carroll
Wesley
Bethel
UW-P

Then I think you will have UMHB, Mount Union, St. Johns, and UWW as #1's. 

[USee]

I think you can slot that JCU spot as "North #1" as that's where the battle will be. I think it would be hard to leave an OAC 1 loss team out but I also think NCC will be ranked ahead of both JCU and BW and so they will be on the board and will block the OAC runner up.

As for #1 seeds, there are going to be some incredible resumes. Among them may be Wheaton with the best SOS among the #1 seed candidates and a 2-0 RRO (if WashU is ranked). Now, St Johns has a top 10 SOS and will also have 2-0 record (theoretically). UWW might have the worst resume of the bunch. I know previous playoffs comes into the decision making, what I don't know is if it comes in as a tiebreaker or as a primary criteria. Others would know more than me.

Whats crazy is all of these outcomes are really going to hinge on how these RAC's arrange the bottom of their final Regional Rankings to affect RRO records.

[wally_wabash]

I think you can slot that JCU spot as "North #1" as that's where the battle will be. I think it would be hard to leave an OAC 1 loss team out but I also think NCC will be ranked ahead of both JCU and BW and so they will be on the board and will block the OAC runner up.

As for #1 seeds, there are going to be some incredible resumes. Among them may be Wheaton with the best SOS among the #1 seed candidates and a 2-0 RRO (if WashU is ranked). Now, St Johns has a top 10 SOS and will also have 2-0 record (theoretically). UWW might have the worst resume of the bunch. I know previous playoffs comes into the decision making, what I don't know is if it comes in as a tiebreaker or as a primary criteria. Others would know more than me.

Whats crazy is all of these outcomes are really going to hinge on how these RAC's arrange the bottom of their final Regional Rankings to affect RRO records.

It's meant to be a way to break ties amongst undefeated teams...or as it is stated directly "When all criteria are equal among teams with undefeated records in the primary criteria."

[USee]

So assume all top seed candidates have similar RRO records and the SOS are like this:

Wheaton  .644
St Johns  .597
Mt Union .571
UWW  .560
Muhl   .567
Ithaca .500
UMHB  .431

How would previous playoff consideration work here? Or is it ambiguous?

[wally_wabash]

So assume all top seed candidates have similar RRO records and the SOS are like this:

Wheaton  .644
St Johns  .597
Mt Union .571
UWW  .560
Muhl   .567
Ithaca .500
UMHB  .431

How would previous playoff consideration work here? Or is it ambiguous?

UMHB is going to be the top seed in the tournament no matter what their SOS is.  This same thing came up a couple of years ago when Mount Union landed in Pool C and people freaked out about their SOS.  It was never going to prevent them from being selected and it won't prevent UMHB from hosting through the first four rounds of the tournament. 

The question as it pertains to #1 seeds probably comes down Ithaca/Salisbury, SJU, UWW, and Wheaton.  People are going to continue to dismiss the East region team because that's just what everybody does, but I would bet a shiny nickel that Ithaca or Salisbury are a top seed. 

Right this minute, Wheaton has a really nice profile, but that SOS has reached its high-water mark.  In three weeks, this is going to level out more. 

[hazzben]

I would like to point out that every year except 2017 the runner-up in the OAC has received a bid to the playoffs, including 2015 8-2 Ohio Northern.  My point with this, is that I don't see John Carrol/BW winner getting left at home. 

So i have the first 3 pool C bids at
Redlands
JCU (Cuz I think they'll win)
Wesley

Each of these team will have multiple results against RRO and each will have (1) win (assumptions: BW is RR and the other win out)

The next 2 are going to interesting.  I think the favorites for those spots are Susquehanna, NCC, Bethel and UW-P.  Each of them will have a RR loass to the #1/#2 seed in their region, but none them will have a RR win.  It is possible that when Bethel plays STU, that they are ranked, but if Bethel wins it could knock STU out, thus they will not garner an RR win.  It is possible that Wash U is ranked and give NCC a win, and it possible that Johns Hopkins is ranked and gives Susque a win, lastly it is possible that UW-Lax is ranked and gives UW-P a win. 

If it happens that all them have 1 RR win, or none of them get an RR win, I think that UW-P and Bethel will get the bid..leaving the field at

Redlands
John Carroll
Wesley
Bethel
UW-P

Then I think you will have UMHB, Mount Union, St. Johns, and UWW as #1's.

This is my point about GAC v. UST. I think GAC has a legit shot to win this game, they matchup well and know they let it slip away last year. If GAC beats UST, I think they end up regionally ranked.

Even if GAC isn't regionally ranked. JCU's SOS numbers are hovering around the 50th percentile right now. Bethel's numbers are much stronger. If GAC is a RRO for Bethel, they are a lock. If GAC isn't, JCU would maybe be 1-1, but their SOS will still be considerably lower than Bethel.

Redlands is first off IMO.

The issue with how you're looking at this is that each region only gets one team on the board at a time. And the committee takes a fresh look.

For instance, say this is the the first round:
West: Redlands (Bethel - could swap them and Redlands, UWP, GAC)
North: NCC (JCU/BW,
East: Wesley (Union
South: Susquehana (followed by 2 loss teams)

Redlands is in with a monster SOS and positive RRO

Rd 2:

West: Bethel (UWP, GAC)
North: NCC (JCU/BW)
East: Wesley (Union)
South: Susquehana (followed by 2 loss teams)

Rd 2 Bethel is in with solid SOS and RRO

Rd 3:

West: UWP (GAC)
North: NCC (JCU/BW)
East: Wesley (Union)
South: Susquehana (followed by 2 loss teams)

And the pick is ... UWP, Wesley, NCC??

Not sure how the committee divides those three up. I listed them in order of current SOS, not knowing what Regional rankings will look like. My point is that it's possible JCU/BW never even get to the table. Or vice versa for NCC. It's possible all Pool C come from the West (though I'm not predicting this). Point being, there's a lot of competition for some very good one loss teams. And that's without factoring in chaos factor that we've seen take effect in the final weeks of the season before.

I've seen too many times where at this point in the year we've considered 2 loss teams all but dead in the water. Only to watch the field come back to them with upsets in the final weeks. Fun stuff ...

[hazzben]

So assume all top seed candidates have similar RRO records and the SOS are like this:

Wheaton  .644
St Johns  .597
Mt Union .571
UWW  .560
Muhl   .567
Ithaca .500
UMHB  .431

How would previous playoff consideration work here? Or is it ambiguous?

UMHB is going to be the top seed in the tournament no matter what their SOS is.  This same thing came up a couple of years ago when Mount Union landed in Pool C and people freaked out about their SOS.  It was never going to prevent them from being selected and it won't prevent UMHB from hosting through the first four rounds of the tournament. 

The question as it pertains to #1 seeds probably comes down Ithaca/Salisbury, SJU, UWW, and Wheaton.  People are going to continue to dismiss the East region team because that's just what everybody does, but I would bet a shiny nickel that Ithaca or Salisbury are a top seed. 

Right this minute, Wheaton has a really nice profile, but that SOS has reached its high-water mark.  In three weeks, this is going to level out more.

I wouldn't be shocked by the East getting a #1 seed. But the thing in favor of both SJU and UWW is that they both get the trump card of prior years playoff results.

As you said, UMHB is a lock for a #1 seed. Mount is also getting a #1 seed. Book it.

Then you have Ithaca/Salisbury, SJU, and UWW. The latter will have favorable RRO, strong SOS numbers, and deeper previous playoff runs. This isn't a lock for the East. Nor should it be. You can make a very strong case that if SJU hadn't had to face UMHB so early, they could have been matching up in the Stagg Bowl.

Also, to my previous post, Wally's prediction coming later this week will no doubt be much more in depth and accurate. I just wanted to point out that there's no guarantee a conference like the MIAC, CCIW, or OAC is guaranteed their 1 loss runner up making the field. 

[USee]

So assume all top seed candidates have similar RRO records and the SOS are like this:

Wheaton  .644
St Johns  .597
Mt Union .571
UWW  .560
Muhl   .567
Ithaca .500
UMHB  .431

How would previous playoff consideration work here? Or is it ambiguous?

UMHB is going to be the top seed in the tournament no matter what their SOS is.  This same thing came up a couple of years ago when Mount Union landed in Pool C and people freaked out about their SOS.  It was never going to prevent them from being selected and it won't prevent UMHB from hosting through the first four rounds of the tournament. 

The question as it pertains to #1 seeds probably comes down Ithaca/Salisbury, SJU, UWW, and Wheaton.  People are going to continue to dismiss the East region team because that's just what everybody does, but I would bet a shiny nickel that Ithaca or Salisbury are a top seed. 

Right this minute, Wheaton has a really nice profile, but that SOS has reached its high-water mark.  In three weeks, this is going to level out more.

I wouldn't be shocked by the East getting a #1 seed. But the thing in favor of both SJU and UWW is that they both get the trump card of prior years playoff results.

As you said, UMHB is a lock for a #1 seed. Mount is also getting a #1 seed. Book it.

Then you have Ithaca/Salisbury, SJU, and UWW. The latter will have favorable RRO, strong SOS numbers, and deeper previous playoff runs. This isn't a lock for the East. Nor should it be. You can make a very strong case that if SJU hadn't had to face UMHB so early, they could have been matching up in the Stagg Bowl.

Also, to my previous post, Wally's prediction coming later this week will no doubt be much more in depth and accurate. I just wanted to point out that there's no guarantee a conference like the MIAC, CCIW, or OAC is guaranteed their 1 loss runner up making the field.

Wally has said, and I have no reason to believe he isn't correct, that previous playoff exp is a tie breaker, not a primary criteria. So if a team is clearly better on the criteria than StJU and UWW, it won't matter. Now what does "clearly better" mean? I have no clue. Obviously if they are all undefeated and that invokes the tie breaker then we can all stop talking about this now. But if SOS and RRO's are differentiators, then the story has yet to be told.

[USee]

Wally,

Who are these "people" who dismiss the east region? And on what basis are they going to be rewarded with a top seed as if they are UMU or UMHB? If 4 teams are battling for 2 #1 seeds (StJ, UWW, Wheaton, Ithaca/Salisbury) are you suggesting its actually 3 teams battling for 1 spot for top 4, criteria be damned?

[wally_wabash]

Wally,

Who are these "people" who dismiss the east region? And on what basis are they going to be rewarded with a top seed as if they are UMU or UMHB? If 4 teams are battling for 2 #1 seeds (StJ, UWW, Wheaton, Ithaca/Salisbury) are you suggesting its actually 3 teams battling for 1 spot for top 4, criteria be damned?

I believe the UMHB and UMU are top seeds as long as they don't lose.  Then I think the top seed in the West region is a certain #1. Then you have Wheaton, the #2 West team, and the #1 East team left for the last spot.  I believe that the East #1, so long as they have a 1.000 win pct, a decent SOS (not something like .450), and a one or two RRO wins would be selected. 

Surely you aren't suggesting that Mount Union and/or UMHB are not going to be top seeds in this tournament. 

[USee]

Wally,

Who are these "people" who dismiss the east region? And on what basis are they going to be rewarded with a top seed as if they are UMU or UMHB? If 4 teams are battling for 2 #1 seeds (StJ, UWW, Wheaton, Ithaca/Salisbury) are you suggesting its actually 3 teams battling for 1 spot for top 4, criteria be damned?

I believe the UMHB and UMU are top seeds as long as they don't lose.  Then I think the top seed in the West region is a certain #1. Then you have Wheaton, the #2 West team, and the #1 East team left for the last spot.  I believe that the East #1, so long as they have a 1.000 win pct, a decent SOS (not something like .450), and a one or two RRO wins would be selected. 

Surely you aren't suggesting that Mount Union and/or UMHB are not going to be top seeds in this tournament.

Of course not. I was just wondering why you think the East #1 would get the UMU/UMHB treatment over the others.