2019 Pool C

[hazzben]

Wally,

Who are these "people" who dismiss the east region? And on what basis are they going to be rewarded with a top seed as if they are UMU or UMHB? If 4 teams are battling for 2 #1 seeds (StJ, UWW, Wheaton, Ithaca/Salisbury) are you suggesting its actually 3 teams battling for 1 spot for top 4, criteria be damned?

I believe the UMHB and UMU are top seeds as long as they don't lose.  Then I think the top seed in the West region is a certain #1. Then you have Wheaton, the #2 West team, and the #1 East team left for the last spot.  I believe that the East #1, so long as they have a 1.000 win pct, a decent SOS (not something like .450), and a one or two RRO wins would be selected. 

Surely you aren't suggesting that Mount Union and/or UMHB are not going to be top seeds in this tournament. 

UMHB and Mount are off the board in this exercise as the top 2 #1 seeds:

Team A: SOS .500; RRO 2-0 (no Playoffs in 2018)
Team B: SOS .560; RRO 2-0 (Deep Playoff run in 2018)
Team C: SOS .597; RRO 2-0 (Deep Playoff run in 2018)
Team D: SOS .644; RRO 1-0 (No Playoffs in 2018)

Team C gets 3rd #1 seed due to strong balance of SOS and RRO. And if it went to it, tie breaker criteria

Team A vs. Team B vs. Team D ... SOS favors Team D, but not RRO. RRO favors Team A and B, but Team A has the weakest SOS. Team's A and D didn't make the playoffs. (Keep in mind  SOS numbers will naturally narrow over the final weeks). Team B made a deep playoff run in 2018. Team A didn't make the field.

Team B gets the nod right?

Team A: Ithaca
Team B: UW-Whitewater
Team C: SJU
Team D: Wheaton

I guess the thing that bugs is that there's also no criteria that says, we need to make sure the East gets a team unless they have zero good options. But we seem to act like that's some sort of tie breaker.

[wally_wabash]

Wally,

Who are these "people" who dismiss the east region? And on what basis are they going to be rewarded with a top seed as if they are UMU or UMHB? If 4 teams are battling for 2 #1 seeds (StJ, UWW, Wheaton, Ithaca/Salisbury) are you suggesting its actually 3 teams battling for 1 spot for top 4, criteria be damned?

I believe the UMHB and UMU are top seeds as long as they don't lose.  Then I think the top seed in the West region is a certain #1. Then you have Wheaton, the #2 West team, and the #1 East team left for the last spot.  I believe that the East #1, so long as they have a 1.000 win pct, a decent SOS (not something like .450), and a one or two RRO wins would be selected. 

Surely you aren't suggesting that Mount Union and/or UMHB are not going to be top seeds in this tournament.

Of course not. I was just wondering why you think the East #1 would get the UMU/UMHB treatment over the others.

Oh, sorry.  I do not think East 1 gets an auto waive through to a top seed.  There's a discussion to have there between East 1, West 2, and Wheaton.  I think East 1 will end up winning that vote, but it isn't a slam dunk. 

[USee]

Wally,

Who are these "people" who dismiss the east region? And on what basis are they going to be rewarded with a top seed as if they are UMU or UMHB? If 4 teams are battling for 2 #1 seeds (StJ, UWW, Wheaton, Ithaca/Salisbury) are you suggesting its actually 3 teams battling for 1 spot for top 4, criteria be damned?

I believe the UMHB and UMU are top seeds as long as they don't lose.  Then I think the top seed in the West region is a certain #1. Then you have Wheaton, the #2 West team, and the #1 East team left for the last spot.  I believe that the East #1, so long as they have a 1.000 win pct, a decent SOS (not something like .450), and a one or two RRO wins would be selected. 

Surely you aren't suggesting that Mount Union and/or UMHB are not going to be top seeds in this tournament. 

UMHB and Mount are off the board in this exercise as the top 2 #1 seeds:

Team A: SOS .500; RRO 2-0 (no Playoffs in 2018)
Team B: SOS .560; RRO 2-0 (Deep Playoff run in 2018)
Team C: SOS .597; RRO 2-0 (Deep Playoff run in 2018)
Team D: SOS .644; RRO 1-0 (No Playoffs in 2018)

Team C gets 3rd #1 seed due to strong balance of SOS and RRO. And if it went to it, tie breaker criteria

Team A vs. Team B vs. Team D ... SOS favors Team D, but not RRO. RRO favors Team A and B, but Team A has the weakest SOS. Team's A and D didn't make the playoffs. (Keep in mind  SOS numbers will naturally narrow over the final weeks). Team B made a deep playoff run in 2018. Team A didn't make the field.

Team B gets the nod right?

Team A: Ithaca
Team B: UW-Whitewater
Team C: SJU
Team D: Wheaton

I guess the thing that bugs is that there's also no criteria that says, we need to make sure the East gets a team unless they have zero good options. But we seem to act like that's some sort of tie breaker.

I agree. Another part of the problem is we are solving for incomplete data. As Wally notes, Wheaton's SOS will come down as they play 2 of 3 weakest teams in the league over the final  weeks so I expect them to be at or below St Johns and UWW (who will probably see an uptick in their SOS with their remaining schedule). Ithaca will get a serious uptick in their SOS and Salisbury will be flat to lower I think. I think a team like Wheaton's only chance at a 1 seed is to get that 2nd RRO (Hazzbeen, in your analysis above if they are 2-0 they are the pick) and have the best SOS of the field. I think I am starting to agree with Wally, certainly as it relates to Ithaca. If they are undefeated they will be a 1 seed. I don't think Salisbury will be though if they are the top East team. Then the battle for the remaining spot is StJ and UWW.

[wally_wabash]

I think I am starting to agree with Wally, certainly as it relates to Ithaca. If they are undefeated they will be a 1 seed. I don't think Salisbury will be though if they are the top East team. Then the battle for the remaining spot is StJ and UWW.

Unfortunately, Salisbury has just 9 games and doesn't have a shot to either get another RRO opportunity or boost their SOS with that 10th game.  It's also unfortunate that the NJAC got beat up in the non-league part of their schedule because normally they'd get more help from their usually good conference.  Oshkosh, barring something unforeseen, is also not going to be a huge help which is too bad.  Salisbury probably deserves more credit than they'll end up getting for taking that game and then handling the Titans the way they did. 

Cortland has games left with Brockport and Ithaca as well and those are two massive, likely RRO opportunities for the Red Dragons.  They could be the top choice in the East if they can survive their last three games.  There's a lot of stuff to work out in the East. 

[MRMIKESMITH]

I think I am starting to agree with Wally, certainly as it relates to Ithaca. If they are undefeated they will be a 1 seed. I don't think Salisbury will be though if they are the top East team. Then the battle for the remaining spot is StJ and UWW.

Unfortunately, Salisbury has just 9 games and doesn't have a shot to either get another RRO opportunity or boost their SOS with that 10th game.  It's also unfortunate that the NJAC got beat up in the non-league part of their schedule because normally they'd get more help from their usually good conference.  Oshkosh, barring something unforeseen, is also not going to be a huge help which is too bad.  Salisbury probably deserves more credit than they'll end up getting for taking that game and then handling the Titans the way they did. 

Cortland has games left with Brockport and Ithaca as well and those are two massive, likely RRO opportunities for the Red Dragons.  They could be the top choice in the East if they can survive their last three games.  There's a lot of stuff to work out in the East.

I heard there were many phone calls made around the South and East to North East, even D2 teams locally that didn't want to play Salisbury,  UW-Oshkosh and other WIAC schools were the only ones willing.  There were teams that decided to play less than 10 games, club or non-DIII teams.  I'm sure this was discussed with Pat when he interviewed Coach Wood earlier in the season. I'm hoping that we get at least two home games if we finish undefeated.  Regardless, I'm just excited that we have a chance in the playoffs. However, we have to beat CNU this weekend first,  one game at a time.

[bleedpurple]

I find this discussion fascinating every year. Every year we break down the criteria and make the arguments. Try to anticipate how the committees will choose to split the hairs.  But, without a rule to support it, the committee takes the previous years' Stagg Bowl participants and gives them the Top two seeds as long as they are undefeated. I don't have a particular problem with that. But I would like to hear the rationale because people who are so adamant about criteria later in the process seem to have zero problem with criteria being thrown out the window at the top of the process.

UMHB is a completely different team this year without KJ and Markeith Miller, no? They have played one decent, not great, team and barely won. They beat 1-6  Belhaven by 10 with no weather mitigation. The NCAA seem to be sticklers for the criteria. Why don't they change the criteria for the top "seeds" or follow the criteria that's  in place?

Anyone who is a stickler regarding the criteria and has no problem with "looking the other way" at UMHB's pathetic SOS, I'd love to hear your reasoning. I'm not even sure I disagree, but I am not comfortable with the inconsistency.

[Pat Coleman]

But, without a rule to support it, the committee takes the previous years' Stagg Bowl participants and gives them the Top two seeds as long as they are undefeated. I don't have a particular problem with that.

I hope not. The rule was put in place because of UWW.

[wally_wabash]

I find this discussion fascinating every year. Every year we break down the criteria and make the arguments. Try to anticipate how the committees will choose to split the hairs.  But, without a rule to support it, the committee takes the previous years' Stagg Bowl participants and gives them the Top two seeds as long as they are undefeated. I don't have a particular problem with that. But I would like to hear the rationale because people who are so adamant about criteria later in the process seem to have zero problem with criteria being thrown out the window at the top of the process.

UMHB is a completely different team this year without KJ and Markeith Miller, no? They have played one decent, not great, team and barely won. They beat 1-6  Belhaven by 10 with no weather mitigation. The NCAA seem to be sticklers for the criteria. Why don't they change the criteria for the top "seeds" or follow the criteria that's  in place?

Anyone who is a stickler regarding the criteria and has no problem with "looking the other way" at UMHB's pathetic SOS, I'd love to hear your reasoning. I'm not even sure I disagree, but I am not comfortable with the inconsistency.

They added the ability to consider the previous year's championship so that we wouldn't repeat the injustice done to UWW  in 2010.  It's literally the UWW rule.

[USee]

Come on guys, Bleed is a changed man. He has seen the light. None of your fact repeating answers his question. Its a good question.

[wally_wabash]

I don't recall UMHB's bad SOS getting this much attention last year.  What changed?

[repete]

Wally ... can you expand on the Gulls "handling the Titans the way they did"? Watched some of that game and it seemed it could have gone either way ... unlike UWO's game last week.

[wally_wabash]

Wally ... can you expand on the Gulls "handling the Titans the way they did"? Watched some of that game and it seemed it could have gone either way ... unlike UWO's game last week.

My impression was different, I guess.  I saw UWO take two quick drives into the red zone and not score.  Then Salisbury had the Titans on skates for the next 35 minutes or so, led 24-0 in the 4th before UWO rallied with not enough time left for it to really matter. 

[repete]

You saw more of that one so I'll defer. Saw the early UWO drives and final yardage, so figured it was closer. Thanks.

[wally_wabash]

You saw more of that one so I'll defer. Saw the early UWO drives and final yardage, so figured it was closer. Thanks.

Yeah, after those two drives inside the 10 that produced zero points UWO had three first downs and seven punts on their next seven possessions and were down 24 points before they snapped out of it. 

[Baldini]

The way to early Baldini crystal ball says,

East Bracket

1.) Ithaca
2.) Salisbury
3.) Delaware Valley
4.) Cortland
5.) Wesley
6.) WPI
7.) Endicott
8.) Framington St.

North

1.) Mount Union
2.) Wheaton
3.) North Central
4.) Hope
5.) Hanover
6.) Aurora
7.) Wabash
8.) SUNY-Maritime

South

1.) UMHB
2.) Muhlenburg
3.) CWRU
4.) Chapman
5.) Linfield
6.) Berry
7.) Bridgewater
8.) Huntingdon

West

1.) St. John's
2.) UW-Whitewater
3.) Wartburg
4.) Bethel
5.) Redlands
6.) UW-Platteville
7.) Monmouth
8.) Martin Luther

The C's are Bethel, Redlands, North Central, Wesley and UW-Platteville. First round would have 4 flights with the likelihood of 1 or 2 flights in the 2nd round. The crystal ball is a bit on the dirty side and I may not of seen everything clearly, but that is what I think I saw anyways. Where did I go wrong?