2019 Pool C

[MonroviaCat]

Monmouth is a curious case.  On the one hand, #1 SOS! How great is that, right?!  Monmouth's SOS is bolstered by Grinnell's decision to not play the full season.  Not only does Monmouth not have to take Grinnell's likely 0-10 record in their SOS, they don't even have to take Grinnell's 0-3 as their scheduled game was never played.  They were noncompetitive in their two games against ranked teams.  I'm not sure I would be voting them in the top 10 of the West region, but certainly yesterday's carnage gets them in the conversation. 

If Pomona had beat Chapman last night and Taken the pool A (assuming finish in 3 way tie), it would have been fascinating to see what the committee did with Chapman and Redlands (each would have been 1 loss with wins over RRO).  Could have created a scenario where the SCIAC could have potentially had 3 playoff teams....alas, Pomona fell short. 

I think Pomona beating Chapman and maybe claiming that conference's auto bid (I'm not sure anybody has confirmed this would have been the case) would have been much more likely to turn the SCIAC into a one bid league than it would have a three bid league.

perhaps....but it would have been intriguing...especially if St. Thomas were to knock of Bethel.....

[edward de vere]

Just for curiosity's sake, what is the highest ranked team in the final regular season d3football.com Top 25 poll to not be selected by the committee as an at-large team in the 32-team playoff era?

[Baldini]

Just for curiosity's sake, what is the highest ranked team in the final regular season d3football.com Top 25 poll to not be selected by the committee as an at-large team in the 32-team playoff era?

2018 - #15 St. Thomas
2017 - #21 Concordia-Moorhead
2016 - #24 St. Lawrence
2015 - #14 UW-Platteville
2014 - #15 North Central
2013 - #11 UW-Oshkosh
2012 - #13 UW-Platteville
2011 - #12 Cal Lutheran
2010 - #20 Pacific Lutheran
2009 - #13 Ohio Northern

That is the past 10 years, someone else will need to dig deeper.

[TheChucker]

Just for curiosity's sake, what is the highest ranked team in the final regular season d3football.com Top 25 poll to not be selected by the committee as an at-large team in the 32-team playoff era?

2018 - #15 St. Thomas
2017 - #21 Concordia-Moorhead
2016 - #24 St. Lawrence
2015 - #14 UW-Platteville
2014 - #15 North Central
2013 - #11 UW-Oshkosh
2012 - #13 UW-Platteville
2011 - #12 Cal Lutheran
2010 - #20 Pacific Lutheran
2009 - #13 Ohio Northern

That is the past 10 years, someone else will need to dig deeper.

Interesting that 8 of the 10 are Western teams.

[hazzben]

Interesting that 8 of the 10 are Western teams.

I don't read that as a snub of the West. Without doing the deep dive, it typically speaks to two things:
1) the quality of the Pool C candidates the West does get in (i.e. there are probably 2 or even three teams that made it before said West team got left out).
2) the Depth of the West, where good ranked teams get left home because they've picked up a second loss running a gauntlet schedule.

IMO teams outside the Top 15 aren't as egregious, since it usually gets a little dicey trying to slot teams past that point. Those top 15 teams could probably do some damage for a few rounds.

The other side of this exercise is wondering which teams would have been left out of Pool C if these teams had been selected. I'm guessing you'd have a similar list of ranked teams, and most years, probably a touch higher in the rankings.

How about this question (with no one in particular in mind) ... Who would people argue is the best 1 loss team not to get a Pool C bid? The previous list is populated with mostly 2 loss teams from top conferences.

[hazzben]

Just for fun (coming off of a couple of upsets this week), let's imagine some Pool C chaos.

1. UST beats GAC. Then beats Bethel. All 3 now have two second loss, but UST's UWEC loss is most glaring. - very possible
2. Ithaca gets upset by RPI. Then beats Corland in Cortaca Jug, giving both 2 losses. - former unlikely, latter very possible
3. IWU channels it's preseason aspirations and upsets North Central, giving NCC a second loss. - very unlikely
4. Wartburg beats Central, knocking the Dutch out. - likely
5. Heidelberg upsets JCU. JCU beats Baldwin Wallace. Both now 2 loss teams. - former unlikely, latter very possible
6. Linfield beats Whitworth, Pirates are out. - likely
7. Stevenson beats Wilkes, putting both at 2 losses. - very possible
8. Trinity beats Berry, knocking them from Pool A and Trinity & Birm So winner gets Pool A. - very possible Trinity already beat Berry.
9. Bridgewater beats Randolph-Macon, two losses for R-M. - likely
10. CWRU beats Carnegie Mellon, two losses for CM. - likely
11. UMHB beats TLU, giving TLU two losses - very likely
12. UWO loses to UWW, three losses - very likely
13. UWP drops one to UWRF or UWSP, getting a third loss. - not likely

Susquehana, Redlands, and Wesley look very good to win out.

No way do all of these things play out, and many of these results we are expecting. But it shows how much a few upsets can swing things either way, killing off a likely Pool C candidate or throwing another team into contention.

[wm4]

Just for fun (coming off of a couple of upsets this week), let's imagine some Pool C chaos.

1. UST beats GAC. Then beats Bethel. All 3 now have two second loss, but UST's UWEC loss is most glaring. - very possible


No way do all of these things play out, and many of these results we are expecting. But it shows how much a few upsets can swing things either way, killing off a likely Pool C candidate or throwing another team into contention.

GAC would have 3 losses.  And UST's wins would be better than Bethel's, not to mention beating Bethel head to head.

[hazzben]

Just for fun (coming off of a couple of upsets this week), let's imagine some Pool C chaos.

1. UST beats GAC. Then beats Bethel. All 3 now have two second loss, but UST's UWEC loss is most glaring. - very possible


No way do all of these things play out, and many of these results we are expecting. But it shows how much a few upsets can swing things either way, killing off a likely Pool C candidate or throwing another team into contention.

GAC would have 3 losses.  And UST's wins would be better than Bethel's, not to mention beating Bethel head to head.

Good catch. more chaotic scenario is GAC beating UST and UST beating Bethel. With Bethel and GAC sitting with 2 losses and UST with 3. Bethel would own the H2H.

[Ron Boerger]

Just for fun (coming off of a couple of upsets this week), let's imagine some Pool C chaos.

8. Trinity beats Berry, knocking them from Pool A and Trinity & Birm So winner gets Pool A. - very possible

Except Trinity already played Berry (and lost).   If Trinity beats B-SC this weekend Berry gets the A, otherwise B-SC gets it (barring very unexpected losses by either Berry or B-SC the rest of the way).

[HScoach]

Berg beating JCU isn't a long shot.  Berg should have beaten BW and this version of JCU is lacking offensive firepower to blow Berg away.  I'd favor JCU by 7 to 10, but Berg vs JCU should be a good game. 

[hazzben]

Just for fun (coming off of a couple of upsets this week), let's imagine some Pool C chaos.

8. Trinity beats Berry, knocking them from Pool A and Trinity & Birm So winner gets Pool A. - very possible

Except Trinity already played Berry (and lost).   If Trinity beats B-SC this weekend Berry gets the A, otherwise B-SC gets it (barring very unexpected losses by either Berry or B-SC the rest of the way).

Good catch Ron. Not sure where I crossed my wires on that one.

@HSCoach. I actually had that as possible initially and then thought I was maybe overhyping H-berg and backed off. Defer to your OAC expertise there.

Bottom line, there's A LOT that is still in play these final two weeks.

[bluestreak66]

Just for fun (coming off of a couple of upsets this week), let's imagine some Pool C chaos.

8. Trinity beats Berry, knocking them from Pool A and Trinity & Birm So winner gets Pool A. - very possible

Except Trinity already played Berry (and lost).   If Trinity beats B-SC this weekend Berry gets the A, otherwise B-SC gets it (barring very unexpected losses by either Berry or B-SC the rest of the way).

Good catch Ron. Not sure where I crossed my wires on that one.

@HSCoach. I actually had that as possible initially and then thought I was maybe overhyping H-berg and backed off. Defer to your OAC expertise there.

Bottom line, there's A LOT that is still in play these final two weeks.

You can also defer to my JCU expertise. I'm actually expecting Berg to win that game. They've been better over the course of the year (hanging tough with Mount, having an easier time against the OAC dreads, ect.) Maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but I think that there is a very good chance the OAC doesn't have a 1 loss runner up this year

[Ithaca798891]

You all seem to have a better grasp on this than me, so I'll ask: What's IC's path to a Pool C bid, assuming Wesley doesn't get upset? What one-loss teams do you think the Bombers' need to lose?

[hazzben]

You all seem to have a better grasp on this than me, so I'll ask: What's IC's path to a Pool C bid, assuming Wesley doesn't get upset? What one-loss teams do you think the Bombers' need to lose?

List of Top 1 Loss Pool C Candidates by SOS (In Parenthesis)

1. Redlands 7-1 (.620) - should win out
2. Wesley 6-1 (.577) - should win out
3. Susquehanna   7-1 (.565) - should win out
4. Randolph-Macon 7-1 (.553) - plays Bridgewater
5. Bethel 7-1 (.540) - Plays UST
6. Ithaca 7-1 (.520) - plays Cortland
7. Texas Lutheran 7-1 (.515) - plays UMHB
8. Baldwin Wallace 7-1 (.504) - Plays one loss JCU final game
9. Cortland 7-1 (.504) - plays Ithaca
10. North Central 7-1 (.496) - plays IWU

I'm assuming Ithaca is still taken above any two loss teams. You also don't want Central to upset currently unbeaten Wartburg (SOS .577)

Assuming the top 3 win out, you want Randolph-Macon, Bethel, TLU, Central, and probably Baldwin Wallace and North Central to lose. Assuming TLU loses to UMHB, you want at least 3 of the remaining 4 the teams just listed to lose. R-M, TLU are likely to lose but upset happen. Baldwin Wallace and Bethel could go either way. North Central should win. Cortland is your problem 

IMO you probably get selected before Baldwin Wallace and North Central. Wally and others can weigh in if this seems off or I forgot someone. Also, keep in mind this doesn't include RRO, since we don't have a clear picture of that. It's possible the East Region Committee Ranks Ithaca above Wesley and then it's probably beat Cortland and you're sitting pretty.

[WW]

Appears quite unlikely that a 2-loss team gets a sniff.