2019 Pool C bid "stealers"

[Domino1195]

Thought it might be worthwhile to discuss Pool C candidates for the next 3-4 days, specifically those proceeding through the weekend that might take away a Pool C from a more deserving team.

As I mostly focus on the GL there are two potential bubble teams.  We have two AQ's that will be won by an unranked team - AMCC and PAC.  In the HCAC: Hanover is ranked and plays unranked RHIT, who has no chance of becoming ranked by Monday.  Should Hanover lose they put themselves on the wrong side of the bubble - 2-3 vs ranked and an SOS that will probably drop below the current .529.  I don't think Hanover can steal a bid with these credentials and a loss tomorrow.

NCAC final is the easy as both OWU and Kenyon will get bids regardless of outcome tomorrow.

OAC is a bit trickier with Otterbein at JCU tomorrow night.  JCU is in regardless of outcome; Otterbein will put themselves on the bubble with a loss.  After last night's OT win against MTU, Otterbein will be 3-5 against ranked and an SOS, currently at .565, mostly to rise after playing MTU and JCU.  A loss tomorrow puts Otterbein at 12-7, 3-6 vs ranked, and an SOS north of .570. Of their three ranked wins, only the OWU victory is impressive.

GL has placed between 6 and 8 teams in the NCAA's in recent years. This year it will be 6 for certain - maybe a 7th.

[PaulNewman]

Last year had several surprises, including a couple that no one saw coming if memory serves.  I would expect the same this year with a slew of mid-pack teams with similar profiles (at least at first glance).  There are a good amount of teams with decent to good SoSs and a decent number of ranked wins and/or high number of overall ranked games.  Some of the head to heads also involved a split, and we have the scenario of a couple to several teams possibly getting a bid that few are thinking about because they either didn't even make their conference tourney or already lost early on top of what in at least some cases are middling profiles. 

[jknezek]

Lynchburg and H-SC play in one ODAC semifinal, neither are ranked. W&L and Roanoke play in the other, both are ranked. H-SC is hosting since they had the best conference record, but they didn't play either W&L or Roanoke, the 2 and 3 seed. They tied Lynchburg at home, which is probably their best result all season. W&L, Roanoke, and Lynchburg have all tied each other this season, Roanoke also beat Lynchburg in a non-conf game.

Regardless, one of H-SC or Lynchburg is going to the conference finals, unranked, and either W&L (1 South Atlantic) or Roanoke (7 South Atlantic) will go home. I suspect Roanoke needs to earn the AQ. A loss to W&L or an unranked Lynchburg or H-SC would be tough to fit on their resume. I suspect W&L losing to Roanoke could drop them to 6th or 7th and possibly put them out of a bid. So tonight's game will be huge for those teams.

Regardless, the worst result would be H-SC winning through on their home field. H-SC would be a pure bid stealer, especially if W&L takes out Roanoke and the finals are close or penalties. That would most likely put W&L through on a C and give the ODAC 2 teams.

[PaulNewman]

I can relate to the anxiety but imo W&L is a lock.  They'll get a SoS boost from Roanoke, and I assume they won't lose their ranked wins (as ranked in week 3 or 4 count).  In the "no worries" category.

[gustiefan04]

In the North Region...

Central, who is ranked #2 in this weeks North Region Rankings was bounced by Luther, 3-0, in the ARC Conference tournament semi-finals. Central should be in a good spot and a near lock for a Pool C. Loras and Luther face off tomorrow to battle for the AQ with the losing team also likely to get a Pool C bid.

The MIAC looks pretty good to get 2 teams in the tournament, especially if Gustavus comes out on top with conference AQ. If St. Thomas wins the AQ Gustavus will be on the bubble and could be left out.

[Mr.Right]

Last year it felt like there were 3-4 extra bids for way to many undeserving teams. The "Last 4 "in had some questionable resumes compared to years prior AND  now we have 2 extra bids. I am really not liking the trend toward power conferences eating up all these Regional Rankings. The RvR thing is important but it is killing teams that only get a chance to play 1 or 2 Ranked teams a season. A team like Babson who schedules one of the more difficult schedules I have seen out of conference in a while gets punished for playing 3-4 really bad teams. Babson was one of these teams that played the best in region but also won its fair share of these games.

[PaulNewman]

Not at all sure Loras is safe given RvR profile.  Luther should be.

And I would think loser of WPI vs Babson is firmly on the bubble, along with Midd if Midd loses semi....Conn and Williams look to be safe.

[jknezek]

I can relate to the anxiety but imo W&L is a lock.  They'll get a SoS boost from Roanoke, and I assume they won't lose their ranked wins (as ranked in week 3 or 4 count).  In the "no worries" category.

I tend to agree. But the top of the South Atlantic is really interwoven and, as Roanoke proved, you can drop a lot of spots real fast. Certainly I prefer my Generals to take care of business. They are more than capable. We will see.

[Domino1195]

Here's a short list of teams no longer playing this weekend, ranked by SOS.  Teams with at least 3 ranked wins should feel like they have a chance - depending how many bids are stolen.  Many of the tournaments feature most of the top seeds.
In the ARC you'd think both Luther and Loras are in - kind of crazy looking at Luther, the 5 seed, currently at Luther 13-4-1   4-2-0   0.587.  I see Central's dilemma - they are almost dead-even with Ithaca.
Based on this I do have to give ONU a little more of a chance, especially with wins over OWU, Hope - and now that Otterbein win looks better.


 

Institution	d3WL %	RvR	SOS	Overall WL %
Haverford	9-5-3	2-3-2	0.624	9-5-3
Connecticut Col.	10-3-3	3-3-3	0.603	10-3-3
Ohio Northern	12-5-2	4-4-1	0.601	13-5-2
Wheaton (IL)	10-4-4	1-3-2	0.597	10-4-4
Vassar	9-6-1	2-4-0	0.592	9-7-1
SUNY Cortland	8-6-3	1-3-1	0.581	8-6-3
North Central (IL)	11-5-2	2-2-0	0.580	11-5-2
Ramapo	11-1-5	1-0-1	0.579	11-1-5
Kalamazoo	10-3-2	3-2-0	0.569	11-3-2
Bates	9-6-1	1-5-0	0.565	9-6-1
Ithaca	12-4-2	3-2-1	0.562	12-4-2
Central (IA)	14-2-2	3-1-0	0.560	14-2-2
Capital	8-5-4	1-3-2	0.557	8-5-4
Hardin-Simmons	12-3-1	2-0-0	0.492	14-3-1

[Domino1195]

In the North Region...

Central, who is ranked #2 in this weeks North Region Rankings was bounced by Luther, 3-0, in the ARC Conference tournament semi-finals. Central should be in a good spot and a near lock for a Pool C. Loras and Luther face off tomorrow to battle for the AQ with the losing team also likely to get a Pool C bid.

The MIAC looks pretty good to get 2 teams in the tournament, especially if Gustavus comes out on top with conference AQ. If St. Thomas wins the AQ Gustavus will be on the bubble and could be left out.

I think Gus needs to win - only two ranked games and a .530 SOS - based on past experience a team like Haverford would get in over them.  Good Luck!

Gust. Adolphus

15-3-0

1-1-0

0.530

[GoThunder1]

Neither Wheaton nor North Central made the CCIW championship. Neither will be a Pool C team.

[Shooter McGavin]

I think you will see a slew of at-large bids coming from the NE, MA, and GL regions. The MA looks to have the most teams with strong SOS, ranked results and resumes. NE has a significant drop off after Babson but I think most of those teams in the upper half will come off the board. The East all have solid resumes but all of the teams in that region have weak SOS compared to other regions. I am not saying they have weak resumes or low SOS but only one team is above .590 compared to MA with 6 teams above .590. NE is similar as they only have 3 teams over that threshold. As we know the committee values high SOS the most of any metric even if it is unsaid. The SA region is an interesting one as they have strong win% and SOS but lack of ranked opponents and results. We will see which is valued more on Monday. The GL region is similar to the MA region as top to the bottom the region is strong and almost all of the teams have a shot at an at-large bid. The Central region could have a decent shot at a few more than normal but the North region could be in trouble as St. Thomas and Loras both look like bubble teams at this point if they lose the AQ and are top 4 in that region. As for the West, I am sure they will get a Pool C or two due to geography but those resumes will struggle compared to the other regions.

A lot depends on results this weekend and which teams get the AQ, but I think it will look something like this...

NE: 4 bids
East: 3 bids
MA: 4 bids
SA: 2 bids
GL: 3 bids
Cen: 2 bids
North: 2 bids
West: 1 bid
Total: 21 bids
 

[Shooter McGavin]

Here's a short list of teams no longer playing this weekend, ranked by SOS.  Teams with at least 3 ranked wins should feel like they have a chance - depending how many bids are stolen.  Many of the tournaments feature most of the top seeds.
In the ARC you'd think both Luther and Loras are in - kind of crazy looking at Luther, the 5 seed, currently at Luther 13-4-1   4-2-0   0.587.  I see Central's dilemma - they are almost dead-even with Ithaca.
Based on this I do have to give ONU a little more of a chance, especially with wins over OWU, Hope - and now that Otterbein win looks better.


 

Institution	d3WL %	RvR	SOS	Overall WL %
Haverford	9-5-3	2-3-2	0.624	9-5-3
Connecticut Col.	10-3-3	3-3-3	0.603	10-3-3
Ohio Northern	12-5-2	4-4-1	0.601	13-5-2
Wheaton (IL)	10-4-4	1-3-2	0.597	10-4-4
Vassar	9-6-1	2-4-0	0.592	9-7-1
SUNY Cortland	8-6-3	1-3-1	0.581	8-6-3
North Central (IL)	11-5-2	2-2-0	0.580	11-5-2
Ramapo	11-1-5	1-0-1	0.579	11-1-5
Kalamazoo	10-3-2	3-2-0	0.569	11-3-2
Bates	9-6-1	1-5-0	0.565	9-6-1
Ithaca	12-4-2	3-2-1	0.562	12-4-2
Central (IA)	14-2-2	3-1-0	0.560	14-2-2
Capital	8-5-4	1-3-2	0.557	8-5-4
Hardin-Simmons	12-3-1	2-0-0	0.492	14-3-1

Haverford is 9-6-3 and now 2-4-2 RvR. I believe they are out. Cortland is done as well as Bates and Capital. Believe Ithaca is now 12-5-2 and 3-3-1 RvR? Not sure on the RvR but that region will shift so depends where they land. 2 losses to Clarkson could push them behind them in the region and Clarkson may never come off the board for Ithaca to have a chance due to Clarkson's very low SOS. I also believe Vassar is on the wrong side of the bubble as 6-7 losses is most likely one too many along with a couple ties. They are in a similar boat to Haverford where the wins equal the blemishes and that won't be good enough IMO. ONU and Conn have very good chances to get in.

[susanc]

How does the committee factor in that you have to play everyone in your conference and you can't control how strong your conference is?

[Domino1195]

Neither Wheaton nor North Central made the CCIW championship. Neither will be a Pool C team.

This is a list of teams that were ranked week 3 and who are no longer playing this weekend. I made no adjustments to records from the data sheets - just downloaded and converted into Excel.

Missing the conference tourney isn't necessarily a kiss of death: example 2016 OWU team. Did not make the NCAC tourney, finished the regular season 10-4-3.  Final RR finished 5th, 3-3-1 RvR and SOS of .567.  Lost first round NCAA to CMU - but they got a bid.

North Central has a better chance than Wheaton with a RvR of 2-2-0, SOS .580.  They aren't dead yet . . .