2019 Pool C bid "stealers"

[Domino1195]

Lynchburg and H-SC play in one ODAC semifinal, neither are ranked. W&L and Roanoke play in the other, both are ranked. H-SC is hosting since they had the best conference record, but they didn't play either W&L or Roanoke, the 2 and 3 seed. They tied Lynchburg at home, which is probably their best result all season. W&L, Roanoke, and Lynchburg have all tied each other this season, Roanoke also beat Lynchburg in a non-conf game.

Regardless, one of H-SC or Lynchburg is going to the conference finals, unranked, and either W&L (1 South Atlantic) or Roanoke (7 South Atlantic) will go home. I suspect Roanoke needs to earn the AQ. A loss to W&L or an unranked Lynchburg or H-SC would be tough to fit on their resume. I suspect W&L losing to Roanoke could drop them to 6th or 7th and possibly put them out of a bid. So tonight's game will be huge for those teams.

Regardless, the worst result would be H-SC winning through on their home field. H-SC would be a pure bid stealer, especially if W&L takes out Roanoke and the finals are close or penalties. That would most likely put W&L through on a C and give the ODAC 2 teams.

This could be the theft of the NCAA tournament - and the selections haven't even been made yet!  But it's up to the ODAC - Lynchburg today and whomever on Sunday - to prevent it.  And H-SC can shut down all the neigh-sayers by winning the tournament.

Hampden-Sydney	13-5-1	0-2-0	0.489
Lynchburg	8-4-5	1-4-3	0.602

[gustiefan04]

While I certainly agree that SOS is a very important factor, what nobody has yet to mention is the consideration the committee must make as it relates to travel expenses. This has traditionally been a pretty significant factor in determining 1st and 2nd round match ups, and the committee will likely need to allocate more than the suggested 4 Pool C bids across the North and Central regions to make it all work...

Between these two regions you have 3 conferences that will have representation in the tournament by way of their AQ, but they do not have  representation in the NCAA Regional Rankings - UMAC, SLIAC and NCAC. You also have the likely Pool B selection in UW-Whitewater, who is also un-ranked.

Right or wrong, the committee is going to need more Pool C teams from the North and/or Central regions to keep teams from flying all over the country. This plays into the favor or ARC and MIAC teams vying for Pool C bids.

That being said, I'm definitely nervous that Gustavus would end up on the wrong side of the bubble in the Pool C discussion, as I think its very likely that the ARC will get 2 Pool C bids.

[Domino1195]

How does the committee factor in that you have to play everyone in your conference and you can't control how strong your conference is?

Calvin had this problem for years when the MIAA made each team play one another twice year.  With only 4 non conference games they would challenge themselves.  Coaches know full well when they are competing in a "one-bid" league, and I believe they should acknowledge this with their non conference scheduling.

I'm preparing another spreadsheet which I may entitle the "PSU-B In Memoriam" list:  schools with gaudy W-L records and low SOS.  Two schools vying for first place this year, for this dubious achievement are:

Penn St.-Behrend	17-1-0	1-0-0	0.460
Covenant	18-2-1		0.493

[Shooter McGavin]

While I certainly agree that SOS is a very important factor, what nobody has yet to mention is the consideration the committee must make as it relates to travel expenses. This has traditionally been a pretty significant factor in determining 1st and 2nd round match ups, and the committee will likely need to allocate more than the suggested 4 Pool C bids across the North and Central regions to make it all work...

Between these two regions you have 3 conferences that will have representation in the tournament by way of their AQ, but they do not have  representation in the NCAA Regional Rankings - UMAC, SLIAC and NCAC. You also have the likely Pool B selection in UW-Whitewater, who is also un-ranked.

Right or wrong, the committee is going to need more Pool C teams from the North and/or Central regions to keep teams from flying all over the country. This plays into the favor or ARC and MIAC teams vying for Pool C bids.

That being said, I'm definitely nervous that Gustavus would end up on the wrong side of the bubble in the Pool C discussion, as I think its very likely that the ARC will get 2 Pool C bids.

Geography and travel certainly is a factor with some selections, but for the most part the committee tends to do a good job of getting the teams in the tourney that deserve to be in and figure out how to make it work with the pods and geography. The exception here and there is traditionally the west region, as sometimes they get a team in because of this (deserving or not) and sometimes it works the other way and they don't get a team in as it would cause more problems. Now none of this can be proven and I don't find it to be done maliciously but more for costs and logic geographically as you mentioned earlier. It's hard to judge right now until we know which teams get the AQs and which teams are vying for a Pool C. 

[D3Grad]

The St. Thomas and Gustavus matchup is looking to be a great game.  Both teams hitting stride at the right time with St. Thomas' comfortable 3-0 win over Carleton and Gustavus lighting up the score sheet 6-2 over St. Johns.  I do think both teams deserve a chance in the NCAA tournament but with the way the ARC is set up it could be a winner take all situation.  It can be a lesson for Gustavus to schedule better non conference games and for St. Thomas to get better results out of theirs.  I do think St. Thomas' current playing form would fare better in those dropped games from the beginning of the season. 

[Gregory Sager]

How does the committee factor in that you have to play everyone in your conference and you can't control how strong your conference is?

It doesn't factor that in at all. That's not part of either the primary or the secondary criteria.

While I certainly agree that SOS is a very important factor, what nobody has yet to mention is the consideration the committee must make as it relates to travel expenses. This has traditionally been a pretty significant factor in determining 1st and 2nd round match ups, and the committee will likely need to allocate more than the suggested 4 Pool C bids across the North and Central regions to make it all work...

The committee will not allocate Pool C berths upon the basis of geography. Geography is neither a primary nor a secondary criterion. In fact, in men's basketball the committee members are explicitly told not to take geography into consideration when selecting Pool C teams -- and I would imagine that the same instructions are specifically made clear to the championship committee members of other D3 sports as well.

If there was a dearth of teams available in a specific part of the country, the committee would have to take the teams that earned their way in, either through Pool A or the Pool B and Pool C selection processes, and then design a bracket with them that somewhat distorts what the primary criteria would seem to indicate are natural seeding combinations. Of course, that would be contingent upon their being no extra money left over for more first-weekend flights aside from the airfare typically doled out to the teams on D3's geographical islands in the West Region. But, as I will demonstrate further on in this post, that's not likely to happen even if the North and Central regions get few Pool C berths or none at all.

Right or wrong, the committee is going to need more Pool C teams from the North and/or Central regions to keep teams from flying all over the country. This plays into the favor or ARC and MIAC teams vying for Pool C bids.

No, it doesn't. An ARC or MIAC at-large will get a Pool C berth based upon its merits as defined in the primary or secondary criteria, nothing else.

It's possible to construct a bracket even if the North and Central regions don't supply an adequate number of Pool C teams. The bracket would then be designed to shift everything westward. F'rinstance, every team ranked on Wednesday in the East Region ranking, with the exceptions of Clarkson and Vassar, is within the 500-mile bus radius of both Gambier, OH (Kenyon) and University Heights, OH (John Carroll). Likewise, all ten teams currently ranked within the Middle Atlantic Region can get to Gambier or University Heights by bus, and so can all of the currently-ranked South Atlantic Region teams except for Ramapo, Rowan, and Oglethorpe.

The 500-mile radius rule opens up tournament travel for the midwestern states much more than you think it does -- especially for northern and central Ohio, which can cover a huge swath of D3 within those 500 miles. If what you consider to be the worst-case scenario takes place, then Kenyon and John Carroll (should the NCAC and OAC tournaments run chalk and the Lords and Blue Streaks host first-weekend pods) would entertain a bunch of teams from New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, DC, and/or Viriginia, while Great Lakes teams such as the AMCC rep, the PrAC rep, and Ohio Wesleyan, plus Centre from the SA Region, were moved farther west to locales such as Grand Rapids and the Windy City.

Geography and travel certainly is a factor with some selections, but for the most part the committee tends to do a good job of getting the teams in the tourney that deserve to be in and figure out how to make it work with the pods and geography. The exception here and there is traditionally the west region, as sometimes they get a team in because of this (deserving or not) and sometimes it works the other way and they don't get a team in as it would cause more problems. Now none of this can be proven and I don't find it to be done maliciously but more for costs and logic geographically as you mentioned earlier. It's hard to judge right now until we know which teams get the AQs and which teams are vying for a Pool C. 

The reason why you can't prove it is because it doesn't happen. Again, geography is not listed as a criterion in the selection process. Dave McHugh, who does the Final Four PBP in Greensboro and who has probably talked to more NCAA officials and to members of various D3 championships committees than the rest of us combined, will back me up on this.

Everything pertinent to the selection process is listed on pages 20-24 of the NCAA Division III Soccer Championships Pre-Championships 2019-20 Manual.

[jknezek]

Lynchburg beats H-SC in OT. W&L tops Roanoke in the other semi. Lynchburg is a solid team that played a hard schedule. I expect W&L is a lock win or lose. Lynchburg would be something of a bid stealer if they take the AQ given their blemishes, but their schedule was tough and way more acceptable than H-SC would have been. Still hoping the Generals take care of business. I suspect Roanoke to be very much on the bubble now and need a W&L win at least.

[Domino1195]

Lynchburg beats H-SC in OT. W&L tops Roanoke in the other semi. Lynchburg is a solid team that played a hard schedule. I expect W&L is a lock win or lose. Lynchburg would be something of a bid stealer if they take the AQ given their blemishes, but their schedule was tough and way more acceptable than H-SC would have been. Still hoping the Generals take care of business. I suspect Roanoke to be very much on the bubble now and need a W&L win at least.

Not sure if it was just me but the video feed did not show the OT of the Lynchburg game. There I am stuck in traffic and can't get to see the end of the game. H-SC played tough but - from the portions of the game I saw Lynchburg was the better side. Kind of refreshing to listen to the H-SC announcers give so much credit to Lynchburg.

If there is one region I'd consider for additional bids it would be the south Atlantic - lots of quality in this region this year. I commented previously that there is a new dynamic on the selection committee this year - new reps and chair. Wonder how that will impact selections. The GL is now represented by the Kenyon Asst. AD, replacing Bianco - who was also the committee chair.

[jknezek]

I think H-SC vs Lynchburg went to penalties.

[D3Grad]

St. Thomas narrowly avoids a Gustavus counter attack.  Shot off the post and second shot saved on the goal line.  UST goes back and scores a few minutes later.  Now prolific goal scorer Cattelin for Gustavus goes down with a hamstring(?) injury.  Game is fast paced with very little passing around the back lines.

[gustiefan04]

Add St Thomas to the list of pool C candidates.

Gustavus with a 3-1 win to take the MIAC AQ!

[D3Grad]

Gustavus comes back and wins 3-1.  Scoring late in the first half, mid second half and last minutes of the game as UST looked confused with each other on who was taking the ball and a Gustavus player comes sweeping in and takes it 1v1 with the keeper.  I do think UST played the better soccer game as far as style and possession is concerned.  Gustavus did not impress in the ability to build up play and resorted to long balls and winning the second ball the majority of the time.  With Gustavus now the AQ the question remains does UST have enough on the resume to get a bid? 

[PaulNewman]

RE:  STU....12-4-3 is OK...SoS will be OK/good....0-4-2 RvR.  The last category is the problem.  Will they get a bid without a single ranked win?

[Gregory Sager]

It depends upon how heavily the committee weighs the respectable total of six RvR matches played, as opposed to the ugly 0-4-2 record UST accumulated in those six matches. The committee has the leeway to look at it from both angles, and can use those numbers any way it likes.

[Ommadawn]

Another Pool C bid bites the dust as RPI falls in PKs to Clarkson in the Liberty League semifinals.