Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Couple things...I think Lyco will jump both Dickinson and Haverford in the MA. Also, North Central IL is in the Central Region aren't they? You have them coming from the North Region. Just checking as they could switch things for your picks maybe? Maybe not?    Also think you are undervaluing Rowan's resume a bit IMO. Also don't think we will see both Ithaca and Clarkson. Maybe 1. Maybe none. But not both IMO.

[Gregory Sager]

First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Couple things...I think Lyco will jump both Dickinson and Haverford in the MA. Also, North Central IL is in the Central Region aren't they? You have them coming from the North Region. Just checking as they could switch things for your picks maybe? Maybe not? 

He may be confusing the two North Centrals. There's a North Central in Minnesota that plays in the UMAC and is in the North Region. And there's a North Central in Illinois that plays in the CCIW and is in the Central Region. The Minnesota team (the Rams) is a terrible team in a subpar league: 3-15, 1-7, while the Illinoisan North Central (the Cardinals) are quite solid -- they finished second in the CCIW but bowed out in the semifinals of the CCIW tourney on PKs, and are currently fifth in the region at 11-5-3, 6-2.

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

I wouldn't be so sure that Calvin won't be hosting a mostly- or all-Great Lakes pod. Remember, regions don't affect bracket construction; only the 500-mile bus radius does. And Lake Michigan acts as a significant impediment to getting teams from Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to Grand Rapids; Gustavus Adolphus, St. Thomas, and UW-Superior are all outside of Calvin's 500-mile bus radius, limiting the ability of the committee to construct a bracket with a Calvin-based pod that features North and Central Region teams. I'm not saying that Calvin will definitely be hosting a pod that's oriented more to the east than to the west, but it's a likely scenario.

Plus, you left out Ohio Wesleyan in your John Carroll and Kenyon pods. Although the Bishops obviously won't be going to Kenyon next weekend, they are pretty much a mortal lock to be going somewhere as a Pool C team. Calvin's as likely a place for them to go as is John Carroll, with a couple more teams being imported into the Ohio- and Michigan-based pods to fill out the three of them.

[Flying Weasel]

What a weird year that a 7-loss team and two teams that won less than half their games are not only expected to be selected, but "comfortably" so (i.e. not on the bubble).  Is this year going to be an anomaly, or will the parity (and maybe inconsistency/mediocrity) that we are seeing continue to give us these types of scenarios for the next couple years or even longer? 

[Gregory Sager]

I don't think that the quality of play in D3 men's soccer has gone down at all, at least from what I've seen. Parity? Sure. It's obvious that more schools are focusing on the sport and are making a concerted effort to get better at it, rather than simply fielding a team for admissions purposes. That's a good thing; it's part of a sport's growth at the collegiate level, and it's what we should expect given the increasing prominence of soccer in American sports culture.

The downside for some of the traditional powers is that it means that the members of the old boys club that has dominated D3 men's soccer from time immemorial will as time goes on take more losses and draws from interlopers that lack the pedigree. Believe it or not, that's a good thing, too. There are 419 schools that play D3 men's soccer, and the more of those 419 that can challenge a Tufts or an Ohio Wesleyan or a Wheaton (IL) or a Messiah or a Calvin, the better. I say, good on you, Central, Lycoming, Oglethorpe, Covenant, Texas Lutheran, Hampden-Sydney, and North Central (IL) -- you guys are the vanguard of a lot more no-names to follow.

[Flying Weasel]

I do think you can make a case for increased inconsistency, which is partially a by-product of increased parity as you can't get away with an off day as much as before.  I've never seen a year in which so many teams have so many "contradictory" results on their resume. 

The issue of mediocrity was intended much more as a question.  For me personally, though, it seems like a down year across the board.  Just my personal opinion.  Just because the long-term trend is on of rising quality (which I think is the case), doesn't mean there aren't ebbs and flows that make some years weaker/stronger than others.  We see this and acknowledge this on the conference level.

And I'm not bemoaning parity or saying it's a bad thing.

[Domino1195]

First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Couple things...I think Lyco will jump both Dickinson and Haverford in the MA. Also, North Central IL is in the Central Region aren't they? You have them coming from the North Region. Just checking as they could switch things for your picks maybe? Maybe not?    Also think you are undervaluing Rowan's resume a bit IMO. Also don't think we will see both Ithaca and Clarkson. Maybe 1. Maybe none. But not both IMO.

Sorry I just copied NC into the wrong region.

I know both Dickinson and Haverford won't get in, but I had trouble leaving such a high SOS out.  Dickinson is probably out, but Lyco with a RvR of 1-5 ?? Since the third rankings they beat a .500 team and lost to Messiah - not sure how much of a boost that gives them.  If anything my MA pick goes outside the region.  Maybe Colorado College?

Clarkson, Rowan and Ithaca - depends on the criterion that receives the heaviest weight.  SOS for Rowan but only one ranked win; 3 ranked wins for the other two. Clarkson with two wins over Ithaca and making it to the LL final - if someone is left out of this group it may be Ithaca.  I wonder if current for is evaluated as it is for NCAA BB picks.

Thanks!

[Shooter McGavin]

Not looking to the women's side of things in regards to hosts, but what are we thinking for top 4 seeds? And other "seeds" after that?

Hopkins
Tufts
Calvin
John Carroll
------------------------
Amherst
F&M
RPI
W&L
------------------------
Messiah
Kenyon
Mary Wash
Chicago/Luther
------------------------
Luther/Chicago
Centre
Conn Coll
Claremont MS/Hobart

[Shooter McGavin]

First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Couple things...I think Lyco will jump both Dickinson and Haverford in the MA. Also, North Central IL is in the Central Region aren't they? You have them coming from the North Region. Just checking as they could switch things for your picks maybe? Maybe not?    Also think you are undervaluing Rowan's resume a bit IMO. Also don't think we will see both Ithaca and Clarkson. Maybe 1. Maybe none. But not both IMO.

Sorry I just copied NC into the wrong region.

I know both Dickinson and Haverford won't get in, but I had trouble leaving such a high SOS out.  Dickinson is probably out, but Lyco with a RvR of 1-5 ?? Since the third rankings they beat a .500 team and lost to Messiah - not sure how much of a boost that gives them.  If anything my MA pick goes outside the region.  Maybe Colorado College?

Clarkson, Rowan and Ithaca - depends on the criterion that receives the heaviest weight.  SOS for Rowan but only one ranked win; 3 ranked wins for the other two. Clarkson with two wins over Ithaca and making it to the LL final - if someone is left out of this group it may be Ithaca.  I wonder if current for is evaluated as it is for NCAA BB picks.

Thanks!

Rowan is going to be 4-2-2 RvR if Montclair gets ranked in the final rankings and if not then they will be 3-1-2 RvR. Strong SOS and that RvR will easily see them into a Pool C berth.

[Gregory Sager]

I do think you can make a case for increased inconsistency, which is partially a by-product of increased parity as you can't get away with an off day as much as before.

Fair point.

The issue of mediocrity was intended much more as a question.  For me personally, though, it seems like a down year across the board.  Just my personal opinion.  Just because the long-term trend is on of rising quality (which I think is the case), doesn't mean there aren't ebbs and flows that make some years weaker/stronger than others.  We see this and acknowledge this on the conference level.

I guess that I just don't see that. I think that it's quite possible that the top tier isn't any better than it's been over the past season or two, and it may even be down a bit. But the mass of teams that constitutes the overall population of D3 seems to me to be getting better. On the one hand you can argue that it makes this season a more mediocre one, because that's what "mediocre" literally means -- trending to the middle, although it's usually just meant to convey the idea that the top moved downward. But if the middle is growing bigger, it's also because the bad teams are getting better. And you measure a season's caliber by the entire 419, not just by the upper echelon.

[Domino1195]

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

I wouldn't be so sure that Calvin won't be hosting a mostly- or all-Great Lakes pod. Remember, regions don't affect bracket construction; only the 500-mile bus radius does. And Lake Michigan acts as a significant impediment to getting teams from Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to Grand Rapids; Gustavus Adolphus, St. Thomas, and UW-Superior are all outside of Calvin's 500-mile bus radius, limiting the ability of the committee to construct a bracket with a Calvin-based pod that features North and Central Region teams. I'm not saying that Calvin will definitely be hosting a pod that's oriented more to the east than to the west, but it's a likely scenario.

Plus, you left out Ohio Wesleyan in your John Carroll and Kenyon pods. Although the Bishops obviously won't be going to Kenyon next weekend, they are pretty much a mortal lock to be going somewhere as a Pool C team. Calvin's as likely a place for them to go as is John Carroll, with a couple more teams being imported into the Ohio- and Michigan-based pods to fill out the three of them.

Trying to keep first round opponents from playing one another is fairly impossible with these GL/Central teams.  And with Chicago and NP you have 5 very deserving teams vying for hosting.  I do think OWU and or ONU could be sent to Chicago or Calvin, but since both played Calvin during the year I didn't think they'd have a first round game up there. Chicago is a strong possibility for a couple GL teams if Calvin or Kenyon don't host.  Otterbein and Cap went to Chicago in 2017.

If Calvin hosts their bracket might include Hanover, North Central (IL), OWU/ONU - or Kenyon if they don't host?

One of these schools won't be hosting  . . .

[Domino1195]

First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Couple things...I think Lyco will jump both Dickinson and Haverford in the MA. Also, North Central IL is in the Central Region aren't they? You have them coming from the North Region. Just checking as they could switch things for your picks maybe? Maybe not?    Also think you are undervaluing Rowan's resume a bit IMO. Also don't think we will see both Ithaca and Clarkson. Maybe 1. Maybe none. But not both IMO.

Sorry I just copied NC into the wrong region.

I know both Dickinson and Haverford won't get in, but I had trouble leaving such a high SOS out.  Dickinson is probably out, but Lyco with a RvR of 1-5 ?? Since the third rankings they beat a .500 team and lost to Messiah - not sure how much of a boost that gives them.  If anything my MA pick goes outside the region.  Maybe Colorado College?

Clarkson, Rowan and Ithaca - depends on the criterion that receives the heaviest weight.  SOS for Rowan but only one ranked win; 3 ranked wins for the other two. Clarkson with two wins over Ithaca and making it to the LL final - if someone is left out of this group it may be Ithaca.  I wonder if current for is evaluated as it is for NCAA BB picks.

Thanks!

Rowan is going to be 4-2-2 RvR if Montclair gets ranked in the final rankings and if not then they will be 3-1-2 RvR. Strong SOS and that RvR will easily see them into a Pool C berth.

I see they pick up a RvR for Ramapo but where is the 3rd ranked win coming from since week 3?

[Shooter McGavin]

Wins over NP, Cortland and Ramapo. Ties with Haverford and Chicago. Loss to Ramapo.

[Gregory Sager]

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

I wouldn't be so sure that Calvin won't be hosting a mostly- or all-Great Lakes pod. Remember, regions don't affect bracket construction; only the 500-mile bus radius does. And Lake Michigan acts as a significant impediment to getting teams from Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to Grand Rapids; Gustavus Adolphus, St. Thomas, and UW-Superior are all outside of Calvin's 500-mile bus radius, limiting the ability of the committee to construct a bracket with a Calvin-based pod that features North and Central Region teams. I'm not saying that Calvin will definitely be hosting a pod that's oriented more to the east than to the west, but it's a likely scenario.

Plus, you left out Ohio Wesleyan in your John Carroll and Kenyon pods. Although the Bishops obviously won't be going to Kenyon next weekend, they are pretty much a mortal lock to be going somewhere as a Pool C team. Calvin's as likely a place for them to go as is John Carroll, with a couple more teams being imported into the Ohio- and Michigan-based pods to fill out the three of them.

Trying to keep first round opponents from playing one another is fairly impossible with these GL/Central teams.  And with Chicago and NP you have 5 very deserving teams vying for hosting.

Yeah, I'll come clean: I've got my fingers crossed that NPU gets to host, since it seems to me that the Vikings are probably third in line among the Illinois/Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa group of teams behind Chicago and Luther. But I'm not just making that stuff up about Calvin being just as viable a candidate to host teams from east of Grand Rapids as it is to host teams from the other side of Lake Michigan. Two years ago Calvin was sent to John Carroll. Three years ago Calvin was sent to Carnegie Mellon. Four years ago Calvin was sent to Ohio Wesleyan, and five years ago the Knights played host to a pod that also included Ohio Wesleyan, Rose-Hulman and PSU-Behrend. So the trend actually favors the Knights getting paired with Great Lakes teams.

I do think OWU and or ONU could be sent to Chicago or Calvin, but since both played Calvin during the year I didn't think they'd have a first round game up there. Chicago is a strong possibility for a couple GL teams if Calvin or Kenyon don't host.  Otterbein and Cap went to Chicago in 2017.

Yes, that possibility exists. But it actually enhances NPU's chances of hosting, because it would mean that some other location would have to soak up the surplus of Central and North teams. Heck, NPU could even host the same Great Lakes teams that you're mentioning with regard to a Maroons-hosted pod.

If Calvin hosts their bracket might include Hanover, North Central (IL), OWU/ONU - or Kenyon if they don't host?

One of these schools won't be hosting  . . .

Yep and yep.

Well find out fifteen minutes from now ...

[Gregory Sager]

I'll also come clean that I'm almost as excited by the thought of calling PBP for D3 tourney games at NPU's Hedstrand Field next weekend as I am by the thought of NPU getting to host rather than having to go on the road.

Almost.

[Domino1195]

Wins over NP, Cortland and Ramapo. Ties with Haverford and Chicago. Loss to Ramapo.

Interesting the third data sheet has their RvR at 1-1-2