Big Dance

[jknezek]

Annnnnnd the chippiness has begun.  I LOVE it!

The box score doesn't tell you everything.  W&L was very lucky to not come away with a L in our first match.  Noke hit the crossbar late in the 2nd half along with a few other chances.  I watched the match and the starting late in the 2nd half and both OTs were very much even with both teams pressing forward.  It was a fun one.

Didn't catch the ODAC semi match so cannot comment.

This is a fun time of year.

It was also the only good shot Roanoke had outside that beautiful corner/header. Nokes' keeper kept out 3 or 4 of W&L's chances that were really solid. He had a very good game. W&L outshot Roanoke 12-3 in the second half and I remember possession being pretty lopsided until very late when it evened out. I'll grant the overtimes were much more even but I remember the Noke keeper laying out pretty good for one of the overtime shots. But we all remember things differently.

Good luck to you man.   Let's hope the ODAC makes a nice showing this year.

Yes. I'd like to see both go deep. Realistically, I think W&L has a good chance of getting out of their quad, especially at home. Tufts, however, is not a happy opponent for anyone this time of year. We will have to see if everyone can hold serve. So long as W&L holds their scoring touch, they should be ok. Other than the Hopkins game, the defense has been solid. W&L is fairly young, only 3 seniors, and they have relied on scoring coming from lots of places rather than one reliable target. Those two factors can cause some heartburn this time of year. We will see.

I hope Noke gets a shot at JHU if the BlueJays hold serve. Would like a little ODAC redemption there after the Generals early season misery. Don't know much about Swarthmore, but CNU will be no joke either.

[YoungBuck]

Interesting you list Roanoke as a bracket buster when they were twice outplayed by W&L who is overrated. I don't dispute W&L, should they get there, will have a real tough draw against Tufts. But I don't see Roanoke being better. Box score on the W&L/Roanoke tie was 24(7) 11(3) shots in favor of W&L. Corners 10 to 7. Frankly, W&L was very unlucky not to win that game. As for the ODAC tournament semifinal, W&L won 2-1. 11(4) 6(4) shots in favor for W&L 3-3 corners in a much more even game on a neutral site field.

I don't see either going past the round of 16, but I'd put my money on W&L getting there over Roanoke. We will see, however.

For me, a bracket buster is inherently an outsider team (outside the top 16) with a chance to make it further than you might think, due to matchups, bracket draw, etc.  I think that Roanoke has a pretty winnable pod and will make it further than other people are predicting.  Maybe Cinderella would be a good way to describe them (although I don't want to risk offending anyone with a gender normative description... ).

As for W&L, as I've said before, I think that losses by multiple goals are pretty incriminating in D3 soccer.  So by my count, W&L falls in the 12-18 range, and as such, might be one of the bottom teams remaining when we get to the Sweet 16.  I definitely have W&L ranked ahead of Roanoke, but they're too good to be included as a "Bracket Buster".  Sorry, I had to cut my rankings off somewhere, and they just missed the cut.

[jknezek]

Interesting you list Roanoke as a bracket buster when they were twice outplayed by W&L who is overrated. I don't dispute W&L, should they get there, will have a real tough draw against Tufts. But I don't see Roanoke being better. Box score on the W&L/Roanoke tie was 24(7) 11(3) shots in favor of W&L. Corners 10 to 7. Frankly, W&L was very unlucky not to win that game. As for the ODAC tournament semifinal, W&L won 2-1. 11(4) 6(4) shots in favor for W&L 3-3 corners in a much more even game on a neutral site field.

I don't see either going past the round of 16, but I'd put my money on W&L getting there over Roanoke. We will see, however.

For me, a bracket buster is inherently an outsider team (outside the top 16) with a chance to make it further than you might think, due to matchups, bracket draw, etc.  I think that Roanoke has a pretty winnable pod and will make it further than other people are predicting.  Maybe Cinderella would be a good way to describe them (although I don't want to risk offending anyone with a gender normative description... ).

As for W&L, as I've said before, I think that losses by multiple goals are pretty incriminating in D3 soccer.  So by my count, W&L falls in the 12-18 range, and as such, might be one of the bottom teams remaining when we get to the Sweet 16.  I definitely have W&L ranked ahead of Roanoke, but they're too good to be included as a "Bracket Buster".  Sorry, I had to cut my rankings off somewhere, and they just missed the cut.

Oh that makes sense. And yes, I agree with W&L in the 12-18 range. I've said multiple times that I think they are one tier below the true national champ competitors right now. The JHU loss... uggh. Of course, it's the only game all year they gave up more than 1 goal, so it's an outlier of one kind or another. JHU put 5 of their 8 on goal past the goalie, one a PK and the other 4 all during the run of play. I'll give JHU credit for being clinical and merciless with their chances!

I figured it would be a long season given the youth and that result, but the run of form after the JHU loss really sparked the season. We will see how this young W&L team does in the tournament. I hope they get a chance to test themselves against Tufts.

[PaulNewman]

Since walking across the street would be tougher for Tufts than their opening weekend, I am hoping beyond hope that Tufts has to go through W&L AND JHU.  Not that Tufts won't still be favored, but geez, there ought to be some difficulty reaching the Final Four.  And there is enough I don't know about W&L to predict that W&L is not overrated and that W&L can beat the Jumbos if they get the chance.  It's time for W&L to reach another level, and as I think I mentioned a few weeks ago, Singleton I think can match Shapiro on smarts and poise.

[PaulNewman]

Annnnnnd the chippiness has begun.  I LOVE it!

The box score doesn't tell you everything.  W&L was very lucky to not come away with a L in our first match.  Noke hit the crossbar late in the 2nd half along with a few other chances.  I watched the match and the starting late in the 2nd half and both OTs were very much even with both teams pressing forward.  It was a fun one.

Didn't catch the ODAC semi match so cannot comment.

This is a fun time of year.

Yes!  It's great fun to see how many of us start getting amped up...and irritated by the slightest slights and insults.  The next two weeks are like the first two weeks of March Madness.  Will be over in the blink of an eye.  Enjoy!

[d4_Pace]

Paul I wouldn't give Tufts a double bye to the sweet sixteen yet. We already remember what happened the last time Tufts won a NESCAC. They when 330 NCAA minutes with out a goal and escaped the first weekend on penalties. Sure they are going to beat SUNY Maritime barring the biggest upset of the decade. But Stevens game then problems last year and Nazareth should be solid from that conference. And WPI is a team that will be able to come in and soak up pressure and make it difficult for Tufts to play. They are favorites to emerge but it's going to take some moments of magic and discipline in the back to make it happen. The reason soccer is the best game in the world is anyone can truly beat anyone

[PaulNewman]

Paul I wouldn’t give Tufts a double bye to the sweet sixteen yet. We already remember what happened the last time Tufts won a NESCAC. They when 330 NCAA minutes with out a goal and escaped the first weekend on penalties. Sure they are going to beat SUNY Maritime barring the biggest upset of the decade. But Stevens game then problems last year and Nazareth should be solid from that conference. And WPI is a team that will be able to come in and soak up pressure and make it difficult for Tufts to play. They are favorites to emerge but it’s going to take some moments of magic and discipline in the back to make it happen. The reason soccer is the best game in the world is anyone can truly beat anyone

If I told you before the season or even now, Tufts has to beat WPI to get to the Sweet 16, would you take that?  And that's assuming WPI gets by Nazareth.  As for Jeff Van Gundy's alma mater, I would think it is inconceivable to you that Tufts could lose to Nazareth.

As you well know, Tufts has lost two NCAA games since 2014....one in the last minute and the other deep into either the 1st or 2nd OT, and both against legit nationally elite teams, and I"m sure you nor any other Jumbo thinks you should have lost either of those games.  I'm  certainly not opposed to WPI getting by Tufts, but I'm not counting on it.

[d4_Pace]

Sure if you gave me a home game at home against anyone to reach the sweet 16 I'd take it. I think that's got to be the mentality. You make adjustments based on the opponent but at the end of the day it doesn't matter who's on the other side. If you take care of business you're going to be okay.

[PaulNewman]

Sure if you gave me a home game at home against anyone to reach the sweet 16 I'd take it. I think that's got to be the mentality. You make adjustments based on the opponent but at the end of the day it doesn't matter who's on the other side. If you take care of business you're going to be okay.

But would you rather have a home game in the round of 32 against WPI or UMass-Boston OR Messiah or Hopkins or let's say Midd (a week after beating Midd)?

[golordsiamlord]

Bracket time!

32: Amherst, Keene St, Keystone, Rowan, Rensselaer, JWU, Messiah, Oneonta, John Carroll, Centre, Texas Lutheran, Trinity TX, F&M, Montclair St, Kenyon, Rochester, Hopkins, Catholic, Christopher Newport, Swarthmore, Tufts, WPI, W&L, Oglethorpe, Chicago, Ohio Wesleyan, Luther, Wis. Superior, Calvin, Ohio Northern, North Park, Gust. Adolphus

16: Amherst, Rowan, JWU, Messiah, John Carroll, Trinity TX, F&M, Kenyon, Catholic, Chris. Newport, Tufts, W&L, Chicago, Luther, Calvin, North Park

8: Amherst, Messiah, John Carroll, Kenyon, Catholic, Tufts, Chicago, Calvin

4: Amherst, Kenyon, Tufts, Chicago

Final: Kenyon vs. Tufts - Kenyon Wins

[YoungBuck]

YB's Predictions:

32: Amherst, Ithaca, Mary Washington, Rowan, RPI, Middlebury, Messiah, Oneonta, JCU, Centre, CMS, Trinity TX, F&M, Montclair, Kenyon, Rochester, Hopkins, Conn, CNU, Roanoke, Tufts, WPI, W&L, Gettysburg, Chicago, OWU, Luther, UW-Superior, Calvin, Ohio Northern, North Park, Gustavus

16: Amherst, Mary Wash, Middlebury, Messiah, JCU, Trinity TX, Montclair, Kenyon, Hopkins, Roanoke, Tufts, W&L, Chicago, Luther, Calvin, North Park

8: Amherst, Messiah, JCU, Kenyon, Hopkins, Tufts, Chicago, Calvin

4: Messiah, JCU, Hopkins, Calvin

Final: Messiah 3-1 Hopkins

[Soccer is a sport]

32: Amherst, Keene St, Mary Washington, Rowan, Rensselaer, Middlebury, Messiah, SUNY Oneonta, John Carroll, Centre, Texas Lutheran, Trinity TX, F&M, Montclair St, Kenyon, Rochester, Hopkins, Conn C., Christopher Newport, Swarthmore, Tufts, WPI, W&L, Oglethorpe, Chicago, OWU, Luther, Wis. Superior, Calvin, Ohio Northern, North Park, Colorado C.

16: Amherst, Rowan, Middlebury, Messiah, John Carroll, Texas Lutheran, F&M, Kenyon, Hopkins, Christopher Newport, Tufts, W&L, Chicago, Luther, Calvin, North Park

8: Amherst, Messiah, John Carroll, Kenyon, Hopkins, Tufts, Chicago, Calvin

4: Amherst, Kenyon, Hopkins, Calvin

Final: Kenyon/Calvin

Winner: Kenyon

[Mr.Right]

I have seen WPI play twice this season. D4Pace is correct they will be no pushover. They will be parking the bus BUT they have more all around talent than they have in the past. This allows them to be effective on the counter and watch for the Frosh Valagussa in the middle of the park. WPI is your typical "cold weather team". They have enough size to deal with Tufts and are quite organized in the back. They also play with a bit of a chip on their shoulder and are becoming more and more of a physical team each year under this Head Coach. They are 12-3-4 but those 3 Losses were all 1-0 losses in tight games. They are battle tested and have played a challenging schedule and will give Tufts a fight.


Question:  WHERE ARE ALL THE NIGHT GAMES??

[PaulNewman]

I have seen WPI play twice this season. D4Pace is correct they will be no pushover. They will be parking the bus BUT they have more all around talent than they have in the past. This allows them to be effective on the counter and watch for the Frosh Valagussa in the middle of the park. WPI is your typical "cold weather team". They have enough size to deal with Tufts and are quite organized in the back. They also play with a bit of a chip on their shoulder and are becoming more and more of a physical team each year under this Head Coach. They are 12-3-4 but those 3 Losses were all 1-0 losses in tight games. They are battle tested and have played a challenging schedule and will give Tufts a fight.


Question:  WHERE ARE ALL THE NIGHT GAMES??

Fair enough, but would you argue that Tufts didn't get a favorable draw?  Would rather play Rowan or Christopher Newport or Rochester or Conn in the round of 32 over WPI?  Of course the mindset has to be that you can beat anyone, but that wasn't the question.

[d4_Pace]

Id rather play any team from the NJAC... Just look at Montclair state in the elite 8 last year. I'll take Tufts in a wide open game against anyone in the country. 

Also Valgussa is the man. He put in one of the greatest summer camp performances i have ever seen while I was helping out at one of them. Kids gonna be a stud.