Big Dance

[Bobcat1]

Its absolutely ridiculous. Not only is the lowest seed remaining in the pod getting to host, they also are getting the early game and therefore more rest and the opportunity to scout the full second game. Would love to hear the explanations around these decisions? You can be sure the Jumbos will show up in PA with a huge chip on their shoulder ready to go.

PN, 2016 is different in that 3 teams would have had to fly to TX.  This year, its one team taking a 1 hour flight to Boston...

[PaulNewman]

Its absolutely ridiculous. Not only is the lowest seed remaining in the pod getting to host, they also are getting the early game and therefore more rest and the opportunity to scout the full second game. Would love to hear the explanations around these decisions? You can be sure the Jumbos will show up in PA with a huge chip on their shoulder ready to go.

PN, 2016 is different in that 3 teams would have had to fly to TX.  This year, its one team taking a 1 hour flight to Boston...

Where do you draw the line?  One flight would be OK but not two or three?  Kenyon was the other choice and their field had been eaten by some fungus.  "Earning" or "deserving" is OK but only up to some line?

But the idea of Tufts with a chip on its shoulder is a bit much.

[RollToms]

Not sure I fall in line with the seeming consensus that Chicago is a contender this year. I understand the legacy and recent success etc.. but looking at their record this year (11-1-5), they played out to 5 draws and a loss. That loss came to Calvin, and most of the draws (bar maybe Carthage) came against very respectable programs who are all discussed in the national perspective, so at first glance not a lot to worry about. But, this is the national tournament, so at this point you are playing programs of that high caliber almost strictly. Chicago is no exception w/ potential 2nd round matchup with winner of OWU and Hope and beyond. The seeming inability of Chicago to find that winning goal in overtime, at least in a decent # of games vs respected opponents, could come back to bite them in the tournament. As we all know, a shootout is not about who the better team is whatsoever. If Chicago gets into a penalty shootout, anything could happen.

Wow. What a weekend of soccer. Hate to be that guy that quotes his own correct prediction, but I'm going to be that guy for a sec because I want to make a point. I think many just assumed that Chicago would be a contender, because, well it's Chicago. Let this be a reminder that just because a team has legacy, does not mean that that legacy will shine through each year. I think there are some schools that people automatically assume will contend, and they largely have earned the right to have that assumption made, but remember that each year it's a new team, and that teams should be judged on what they did during the year (as is protocol for selection committee) not what they have done in years prior. Some people may not like this comment, but I think many know it's true whether or not they like it.

BTW, take nothing away from the performance of OWU and one of the best coaches in college soccer, Jay Martin. OWU looks hungry.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Its absolutely ridiculous. Not only is the lowest seed remaining in the pod getting to host, they also are getting the early game and therefore more rest and the opportunity to scout the full second game. Would love to hear the explanations around these decisions? You can be sure the Jumbos will show up in PA with a huge chip on their shoulder ready to go.

PN, 2016 is different in that 3 teams would have had to fly to TX.  This year, its one team taking a 1 hour flight to Boston...

Where do you draw the line?  One flight would be OK but not two or three?  Kenyon was the other choice and their field had been eaten by some fungus.  "Earning" or "deserving" is OK but only up to some line?

But the idea of Tufts with a chip on its shoulder is a bit much.

As indicated, there has to be a line and those who watch the budgets in DIII are not going to allow flights for the heck of it. There is a 500 mile rule for a reason. If they started letting one, two, three slide through then everyone gets those in all sports and the next thing we know there is another budget shortfall in DIII. The last time that happened, brackets got tightened severely - too severely.

DIII isn't alone on this, but it is the largest and thus is happens with a lot of regularity. It might not but what some people like, but it's the reality of the tournaments.

As for scouting, every team gets a chance to scout at the pods. Those playing in the second game will be sitting there scouting the first game as well.

BTW - from what I can see, that bracket was set-up for JHU to host. The Blue Jays losing is what caused this to go sideways. Tufts and W&L weren't going to host this upcoming weekend anyway - maybe W&L had Catholic gotten through. So, we are upset because ...

[Bobcat1]

Not upset, just feel that if you earn the right to host and you have the facility to host then you should be able to host. I agree had the Blue Jays won the pod would be at Hopkins and from a travel and ranking standpoint that makes sense. With Conn winning it seemed logical Tufts would host given their ranking and location as it involved only flying one team (which probably is not much more expensive than taking a team on a 6 hour bus ride). Anyway, its water under the dam now. On to the round of 16 where there are some great matchups.

[PaulNewman]

Just to clarify...and then moving ahead.

I DO think Tufts should be hosting.  A very good facility and atmosphere for hosting as well.  I was just saying that the hosting logistics and unforeseen consequences have benefited Tufts directly in the past, so let's at least acknowledge that in a discussion about how utterly ridiculous something is.  As Shapiro says, the margins get smaller and smaller as you progress in the tournament, so if we're going to talk about advantages that should be earned then we at least should mention advantages that aren't "earned."  Other than myself who had a vested interest, I can't think of another poster commenting on or acknowledging what fell in Tufts' lap in 2016, and in addition to the items already mentioned that year (Trinity too far away and a field problem elsewhere was the fantastical inability of Haverford to close out a 9-man UMass-Boston team...or was it 8?). Anyway, merit is merit and logistics are logistics.  Clearly the NCAA uses a hybrid approach.  And Tufts has thrived in these situations before....beating Messiah, Montclair and Rowan (all favored at the time) on the road.

The other thing unless this is a mistake....Amherst is the only "top seed" playing the early game.  The other top seeds are currently scheduled for the later game.

On another topic, Conn College has sort of flown under the radar.  The Camels have a real chance to reach the Final Four which would be enormous for that program and that school.  in addition to their obvious defensive stinginess anchored by Marcucci, I was surprised at Conn's ability to sustain real offensive pressure on an excellent JHU squad (at least in the 2nd half from what I saw).

[rudy]

Just to clarify...and then moving ahead.

I DO think Tufts should be hosting.  A very good facility and atmosphere for hosting as well.  I was just saying that the hosting logistics and unforeseen consequences have benefited Tufts directly in the past, so let's at least acknowledge that in a discussion about how utterly ridiculous something is.  As Shapiro says, the margins get smaller and smaller as you progress in the tournament, so if we're going to talk about advantages that should be earned then we at least should mention advantages that aren't "earned."  Other than myself who had a vested interest, I can't think of another poster commenting on or acknowledging what fell in Tufts' lap in 2016, and in addition to the items already mentioned that year (Trinity too far away and a field problem elsewhere was the fantastical inability of Haverford to close out a 9-man UMass-Boston team...or was it 8?). Anyway, merit is merit and logistics are logistics.  Clearly the NCAA uses a hybrid approach.  And Tufts has thrived in these situations before....beating Messiah, Montclair and Rowan (all favored at the time) on the road.

The other thing unless this is a mistake....Amherst is the only "top seed" playing the early game.  The other top seeds are currently scheduled for the later game.

On another topic, Conn College has sort of flown under the radar.  The Camels have a real chance to reach the Final Four which would be enormous for that program and that school.  in addition to their obvious defensive stinginess anchored by Marcucci, I was surprised at Conn's ability to sustain real offensive pressure on an excellent JHU squad (at least in the 2nd half from what I saw).

I hate to jinx Kenyon Paul but right now they have a pretty favorable shot at the final 4. No tufts, Messiah, Amherst or Calvin to play through and they appear to be peaking. Could be the year.

[PaulNewman]

Not sure I fall in line with the seeming consensus that Chicago is a contender this year. I understand the legacy and recent success etc.. but looking at their record this year (11-1-5), they played out to 5 draws and a loss. That loss came to Calvin, and most of the draws (bar maybe Carthage) came against very respectable programs who are all discussed in the national perspective, so at first glance not a lot to worry about. But, this is the national tournament, so at this point you are playing programs of that high caliber almost strictly. Chicago is no exception w/ potential 2nd round matchup with winner of OWU and Hope and beyond. The seeming inability of Chicago to find that winning goal in overtime, at least in a decent # of games vs respected opponents, could come back to bite them in the tournament. As we all know, a shootout is not about who the better team is whatsoever. If Chicago gets into a penalty shootout, anything could happen.

Wow. What a weekend of soccer. Hate to be that guy that quotes his own correct prediction, but I'm going to be that guy for a sec because I want to make a point. I think many just assumed that Chicago would be a contender, because, well it's Chicago. Let this be a reminder that just because a team has legacy, does not mean that that legacy will shine through each year. I think there are some schools that people automatically assume will contend, and they largely have earned the right to have that assumption made, but remember that each year it's a new team, and that teams should be judged on what they did during the year (as is protocol for selection committee) not what they have done in years prior. Some people may not like this comment, but I think many know it's true whether or not they like it.

BTW, take nothing away from the performance of OWU and one of the best coaches in college soccer, Jay Martin. OWU looks hungry.

I think I follow your point and your caveat at the end is appreciated, but just because a team loses or is upset doesn't necessarily mean they were overrated.  I mean, come on, Chicago was undefeated (7-0-0) in one of the two top conferences in the country and DID NOT ALLOW A SINGLE GOAL.  They looked to be in decent shape versus OWU for much of the game too.  OWU has said they made some adjustments, but the game really turned once OWU scored to draw even.  That happened late enough for OWU to get a burst of momentum that led to a go-ahead goal and then Chicago just didn't have much time to respond.  I'm sure the Maroons were shell-shocked at the final whistle wondering what had just happened to them.  And it does take away from OWU's gutsy win to suggest that Chicago wasn't really that good.  There rightfully is a lot of focus on Tufts and Messiah, but OWU has done this NCAA thing a couple of times....a record 41 NCAA appearances to be exact, and the Battling Bishops are unlikely to ever be eclipsed on that measure.

[PaulNewman]

Just to clarify...and then moving ahead.

I DO think Tufts should be hosting.  A very good facility and atmosphere for hosting as well.  I was just saying that the hosting logistics and unforeseen consequences have benefited Tufts directly in the past, so let's at least acknowledge that in a discussion about how utterly ridiculous something is.  As Shapiro says, the margins get smaller and smaller as you progress in the tournament, so if we're going to talk about advantages that should be earned then we at least should mention advantages that aren't "earned."  Other than myself who had a vested interest, I can't think of another poster commenting on or acknowledging what fell in Tufts' lap in 2016, and in addition to the items already mentioned that year (Trinity too far away and a field problem elsewhere was the fantastical inability of Haverford to close out a 9-man UMass-Boston team...or was it 8?). Anyway, merit is merit and logistics are logistics.  Clearly the NCAA uses a hybrid approach.  And Tufts has thrived in these situations before....beating Messiah, Montclair and Rowan (all favored at the time) on the road.

The other thing unless this is a mistake....Amherst is the only "top seed" playing the early game.  The other top seeds are currently scheduled for the later game.

On another topic, Conn College has sort of flown under the radar.  The Camels have a real chance to reach the Final Four which would be enormous for that program and that school.  in addition to their obvious defensive stinginess anchored by Marcucci, I was surprised at Conn's ability to sustain real offensive pressure on an excellent JHU squad (at least in the 2nd half from what I saw).

I hate to jinx Kenyon Paul but right now they have a pretty favorable shot at the final 4. No tufts, Messiah, Amherst or Calvin to play through and they appear to be peaking. Could be the year.

All you can ask for is a fair chance to keep competing.  If the Lords keep upping their intensity, cut out the unforced errors in the back, keep up the attacking pressure, and realize that any of the other three teams can take them out I think they'll have a chance.

One game at a time, and play that next game like it is the national championship game.

[Domino1195]

Kind of ironic that both UAA teams lost to NCAC teams, the turning point in both games very tough PK's.  Tried to see what happened in the OWU game - the alleged foul was far enough away from the under served ball in. Got to be more of a significant chance negated by a foul for me to whistle that one. But that seemed to change the energy in the game - UC no excuses on the second goal, got caught pressing for an equalizer on the third.

But the deciding PK in the Kenyon game - wow. #27 for UR was having a MOTM game - several Kenyon fans said the same. Second half I was stationed on the fence at the attacking end for Kenyon - oh the chances they missed! #27 loses his footing, falls chest-first on the ball, ball touches his arm. I was 10 yards away - harshest decision - still not sure it meets the current criteria for handling. But the gentlemanly way he accepted the decision - unheard of in this era. My heart goes out to him. Class act in the face of such a decision.

Amended after finding the exact passage from the IFAB changes to handling, March 2019: (page 16:  http://static-3eb8.kxcdn.com/documents/791/171520_110319_IFAB_LoG_changes_and_clarifications.pdf)

"Except for the above offences, it is not usually an offence if the ball touches a player's hand/arm: 
•directly from the player's own head or body (including the foot) 
•directly from the head or body (including the foot) of another player who is close
•if the hand/arm is close to the body and does not make the body unnaturally bigger
•when a player falls and the hand/arm is between the body and the ground to support the body, but not extended laterally or vertically away from the body"

[Mr.Right]

The Amherst quad is really interesting with RPI, Messiah, Rowan and Amherst. All 4 teams have their own identities and will go at this in totally different ways. Messiah on a field 65 yards wide against an organized defensive team that will be sitting in and digging deep. They will let Messiah do whatever it wants with the ball until they cross half. Then RPI will go into full suffocate mode and the field will be their 12th teammate. RPI has some creativity in midfield that allows them dangerous looks on the counter. RPI looked solid last night against Midd showing vision in midfield and were physically ready to battle MIDD for every ball. The recruiting job Adam Clinton has done with this bunch has been phenomenal and if he ever could get this RPI side to the NCAA Final 4 it could be his last chance at a golden ticket out of Troy, NY. No offense to RPI but their administration has never cared about Mens Soccer and at least in the past gave Clinton minimal support. He wanted the Skidmore job when it opened in 2013 which should tell you everything. Now maybe things have changed because I do notice a bigger staff, which doesn't really mean anything but I doubt it..RPI is and always will be a Hockey and Football school. The best way to beat RPI is to score as early as you can before they can get comfortable defensively especially on a neutral field. The longer Messiah waits to score the harder it will get against RPI.

Amherst is starting to build its own little rivalries with the top half of the NJAC. They usually have one NJAC on the Regular Season schedule now and are also finding themselves having to go thru them in their NCAA pursuits. I did not see a lick of Amherst this past weekend nor have I seen Rowan play this year. I have absolutely no statistics to back this up but I get the sense that NJAC teams might have a bad record when game time is at 11am. IF Rowan comes out the least bit flat then it will be lights out. THEY must be ready to go. If they can do that and settle into the game without conceding than it should be a great D3 Soccer match with some possible fireworks if everything goes well especially 2nd Half...


Just a quick shout out to the Tufts broadcasting team. They provided a good play by play and color the whole game. They obviously know the guys off the field so that insider knowledge is what the neutral is looking for. Like when the play by play guy noticed a fan yelling at the ref and the color guy say's all nonchalantly "oh that's so and so Dad". Stuff like that can be invaluable to the viewer whether they realize they are giving them that or not. Also, BOTH were very fair and could be heard even grumbling about Tufts at times and their play PLUS it was snowing. Im a sucker for the whole snow thing when watching a game once in a while.

[blooter442]

Kind of ironic that both UAA teams lost to NCAC teams, the turning point in both games very tough PK's.  Tried to see what happened in the OWU game - the alleged foul was far enough away from the under served ball in. Got to be more of a significant chance negated by a foul for me to whistle that one. But that seemed to change the energy in the game - UC no excuses on the second goal, got caught pressing for an equalizer on the third.

But the deciding PK in the Kenyon game - wow. #27 for UR was having a MOTM game - several Kenyon fans said the same. Second half I was stationed on the fence at the attacking end for Kenyon - oh the chances they missed! #27 loses his footing, falls chest-first on the ball, ball touches his arm. I was 10 yards away - harshest decision - still not sure it meets the current criteria for handling. But the gentlemanly way he accepted the decision - unheard of in this era. My heart goes out to him. Class act in the face of such a decision.

Even as a UAA fan, I'll be the first to admit that this year's UAA was hardly a vintage edition. Chicago was better than I thought it would be, no doubt, and going 7-0 (and conceding no goals!) in the UAA is impressive and historic. That said, Chicago rolling through the competition — including the other UAA representative, Rochester, whose late-season clutch results got it a bid that would have seemed unlikely in October — perhaps says a lot of the strength of the conference this year: Brandeis' 3-3-1 conference record included no ranked wins in conference play; NYU's 3-0 UAA start came crumbling down; Emory's 2-2-3 conference record put it above .500 (still winning less than 1/3 of its games); and the other three teams were not in the running. Put it this way, there only looked like two bids (including the AQ) realistically for the UAA come Selection Monday; in my experience, there are usually more than that.

I didn't see the penalty incident, just the Kenyon player lining up to take (and scoring) the kick. Sounds like Rochester got hosed. That's unfortunate, and #27 is Will Eisold, the Rochester CB who stood out as a FY and was UR's standout player this year, for me. A bit surprised he didn't get all-UAA commendation. Anyway, Rochester defended well against Kenyon — keeping its shape while pressing from the front — but even with the unfortunate ending I think most will agree that the Yellowjackets were second-best on the day in terms of general play. Once Kenyon got the equalizer, you kind of had the sense that there would only be one winner (and so it proved). Grit can get a team far, and Rochester has that in abundance, but generating offense beyond being opportunistic on goalmouth scrambles is important. Aside from one half-chance to make it 2-0, they never really did that. Put it this way, I would have been surprised if they made it to the second weekend (then again, I said the same thing two years ago when they then knocked out Oneonta and Amherst en route to an Elite 8 appearance). Either way, that's a brutal way to end the season.

As for OWU, really interested to see that Sectional! Luther in its second-successive Sweet 16 against an OWU side that many rated but perhaps didn't see getting by Chicago; Calvin and North Park doing battle in the other. Potential for great theater in all three games.

[GoThunder1]

Incredibly entertaining first weekend. I feel like we have 16 extremely deserving teams remaining, with 4 very even pods left. The pod I am personally most interested in is the central region pod (mostly because I live in Illinois, I am a Wheaton fan, and am most familiar with these teams), as it is has 4 extremely talented teams in it. I think we all assumed Chicago was going to make it here (and would be hosting) - which has thrown quite the wrench in this.

The OWU-Luther match pits a lot of technical skill against each other. In watching their 2 games this weekend, I was quite impressed with both teams and I wouldn't be surprised to see this match go into OT/PK's - as they appear to be quite evenly matched. Both teams are playing some of their best soccer at the right time and I can't help to think that Jay Martin's experience in these situations may be the difference maker. Prediction 2-1 OWU (2 OT).

The nightcap (or daycap in this case) puts the last 2 national runner-ups against each other, as Calvin takes on the home side, North Park. Obviously, NP caught a significant break with Chicago bowing out - allowing them the chance to host this Pod. However, I don't think it will change the outcome of the game, as every team is comfortable on turf (compared to having to play on grass, when you have only played on turf all year). Calvin goes as Olson/Twigg go, so it will be interesting to see the defensive tactics that Kris Grahn puts into place to minimize the impact. Similarly, North Park is at it's best when Olsen/Ericsson are allowed space in the midfield to attack. When that space is tightened up and team's play physical with them, it tends to lead to the ball being stagnant and NP becomes ineffective. I expect this game to be up and down the pitch, quite entertaining for the fans. One key factor will be the health of 2 NP players (GK-Stuhlen and F-Khoury). Khoury went down in the first half and didn't return. Stuhlen went out before OT and didn't return. The one part of the field where NP seems to lack depth is up top, so it will be critical for them that Khoury is able to go. I think it goes one of two ways, either Calvin scores early and wins big (3-0) or NP wins a 2-1 or 1-0 game. My gut is telling me the latter, so from a prediction perspective, I will take an NP win 2-1 in regular time.

This sets up a unique battle between NP and OWU, as you have a first year head coach going up against a legend. I think NP has a pace advantage, especially on the wings, and will be able to create quality scoring chances. I like NP winning this one 2-0 and heading back to Greensboro for the 2nd time in 3 years.     

[PaulNewman]

Kind of ironic that both UAA teams lost to NCAC teams, the turning point in both games very tough PK's.  Tried to see what happened in the OWU game - the alleged foul was far enough away from the under served ball in. Got to be more of a significant chance negated by a foul for me to whistle that one. But that seemed to change the energy in the game - UC no excuses on the second goal, got caught pressing for an equalizer on the third.

But the deciding PK in the Kenyon game - wow. #27 for UR was having a MOTM game - several Kenyon fans said the same. Second half I was stationed on the fence at the attacking end for Kenyon - oh the chances they missed! #27 loses his footing, falls chest-first on the ball, ball touches his arm. I was 10 yards away - harshest decision - still not sure it meets the current criteria for handling. But the gentlemanly way he accepted the decision - unheard of in this era. My heart goes out to him. Class act in the face of such a decision.

Amended after finding the exact passage from the IFAB changes to handling, March 2019: (page 16:  http://static-3eb8.kxcdn.com/documents/791/171520_110319_IFAB_LoG_changes_and_clarifications.pdf)

"Except for the above offences, it is not usually an offence if the ball touches a player's hand/arm: 
•directly from the player's own head or body (including the foot) 
•directly from the head or body (including the foot) of another player who is close
•if the hand/arm is close to the body and does not make the body unnaturally bigger
•when a player falls and the hand/arm is between the body and the ground to support the body, but not extended laterally or vertically away from the body"

I didn't realize that was Eisold (#27).  Great player and I recall him being touted last year as a frosh including against Messiah.  He had an excellent game and the goal for UR.  He seemed to perhaps tire in the latter stages as I noticed him having to resort to slide tackles a couple of times before the fateful play.  I didn't see it and I'm no ref expert.  What I saw and then heard described afterwards is that the increasingly dangerous right back (Muther) for Kenyon made a terrific run with the ball into the box, had the angle on Eisold  for a good short cross through the goal mouth, and when Eisold did his slide tackle Muther jumped the tackle and left the ball next to Eisold who then supposedly handled.  Kenyon led the stats by a decent margin, but the game obviously could have gone either way.  Would be interested in Domino's overall impressions in addition to the PK foul analysis.  IMO Rochester had their chance to take the game in the first few minutes of OT when Kenyon could not clear and UR got at least two free kicks and I think three corners in a very short span.  Kenyon almost put the game away a couple of times in regulation after drawing level with about 15 min to go.

[YoungBuck]

YB's Predictions:

32: Amherst, Ithaca, Mary Washington, Rowan, RPI, Middlebury, Messiah, Oneonta, JCU, Centre, CMS, Trinity TX, F&M, Montclair, Kenyon, Rochester, Hopkins, Conn, CNU, Roanoke, Tufts, WPI, W&L, Gettysburg, Chicago, OWU, Luther, UW-Superior, Calvin, Ohio Northern, North Park, Gustavus

16: Amherst, Mary Wash, Middlebury, Messiah, JCU, Trinity TX, Montclair, Kenyon, Hopkins, Roanoke, Tufts, W&L, Chicago, Luther, Calvin, North Park

8: Amherst, Messiah, JCU, Kenyon, Hopkins, Tufts, Chicago, Calvin

4: Messiah, JCU, Hopkins, Calvin

Final: Messiah 3-1 Hopkins

30/32 in First Round
9/16 in Second Round 

Not that I have any credibility with which to make predictions, but here's how I'd rank the remaining teams going forward, from most likely to take it home to least.  As others have mentioned, the paths to Greensboro have really opened up for Tufts and Kenyon.  I still like a healthy Messiah over Amherst, and it's hard to bet against Calvin to make it there.  Can't see the home field advantage helping Swat too much, but I've been wrong before.

1. Tufts
2. Calvin
3. Messiah
4. Kenyon
5. Amherst
6. North Park
7. OWU
---------------------
8. Conn
9. Montclair
10. Rowan
11. W&L
12. RPI
13. Luther
---------------------
14. CMS
15. Centre
---------------------
16. Swat (sorry, no way)