Covid Impacts on Upcoming Season

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Keep something in mind... the NCAA is likely to do everything it can NOT to cancel the postseasons at this time. They don't want to do anything that will scuttle schools from bringing in their students or having seasons if they are able to in their parts of the country. This isn't like the winter/spring right now ... though, it could end up being that way. The NCAA is going to let schools and conferences do what they need to do for their own well being and such. They may make a decision at some point, but I've been told and I've read that the NCAA (and especially DIII) would like to not cancel postseasons if they can avoid it - even with smaller number of schools having seasons.

I know of institutions who are going to do everything they can to have some kind of seasons. They have to or they likely could not open their doors in the future.

[College Soccer Observer]

An essential part of the college experience is being around other people, in classes, in dorms, in dining halls, and yes, in athletics.  Williams today announced a plan to test every student on return, and then test every student weekly.  Dining halls will be closed except for grab and go.  No sports.  If we are going to live in such fear of a virus that in Massachusetts has killed 0 people from 0-19 and 15 under the age of 30 (a rate of 1 per 100,000 people, with 98.2 % of all deaths in MA having 1 or more significant underlying health conditions), we are not living at all.  In their zeal to avoid any kind of risk to anyone, colleges may cause themselves significant loss of enrollment.  What is the point of paying big $ for a college education that is increasingly likely to be at least partially remote and which does not include athletics (varsity or club)?  According to Williams, 60% of their student body participates in either varsity or club sports.   

[4231CenterBack]

Stop it!  CSO you are making too much sense!  There's also a chance of the kids being struck by lightning when they play or the bus could have an accident on the way to a match!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

An essential part of the college experience is being around other people, in classes, in dorms, in dining halls, and yes, in athletics.  Williams today announced a plan to test every student on return, and then test every student weekly.  Dining halls will be closed except for grab and go.  No sports.  If we are going to live in such fear of a virus that in Massachusetts has killed 0 people from 0-19 and 15 under the age of 30 (a rate of 1 per 100,000 people, with 98.2 % of all deaths in MA having 1 or more significant underlying health conditions), we are not living at all.  In their zeal to avoid any kind of risk to anyone, colleges may cause themselves significant loss of enrollment.  What is the point of paying big $ for a college education that is increasingly likely to be at least partially remote and which does not include athletics (varsity or club)?  According to Williams, 60% of their student body participates in either varsity or club sports.   

It isn't the fear of those in the age group who attend a college dying from this ... but that they pass it on to others who are more at risk including, but not limited to, professors, parents, grandparents, and many, many others.

Also, while no one in that age group has died in Massachusetts, Williams students come from far outside the state and those states those numbers aren't the same.

There is more going on here than just what is happening in Massachusetts and what the death numbers are for this age group. This age group can easily transport this virus to many other places without ever realizing they had it.

[PaulNewman]

I don't think there is a school, team, player, family or fan who doesn't want to see something resembling a real season happen.  I would bet that the desire to play was extremely high at all these colleges.  Sure, schools like Williams and Bowdoin can weather a lost season (or semester) way better than most, but canceling a season at a place like Williams where athletics are a huge part of the school was not a decision that they reached without very considerable and deliberate thought I would assume.  I also doubt Williams wanted to cut tuition by 15% either.  Clearly, not playing is more critical for some other schools worried about survival, but they can't play just because of financial viability.  They have to believe it is actually a good decision, as no one wants to get to mid-October and have a total mess on their hands that made everything worse (and they also have to have enough other schools joining them). 

Everyone is struggling with the pandemic and what to do.  The NBA is desperate to play.  They may not.  The list of NBA players already opting out is growing.

All states want to open.  Some appear to be paying for that now.  We all know that October, November and December could get really bad.

Postseason?  That seems very, very unlikely.  Any season beyond a club or reserve team type of schedule seems unlikely.  And at what point do enough schools decide not to play that a season feels so diluted as not to accomplish anything close to what participating schools hoped for?

And where is the NCAA's leadership on this?  It sounds generous to allow schools and conferences to make their own decisions.  But is that generous or simply declining to step up and provide some guidance --either way -- for schools to hang their hats on?  Is the NCAA going to let all D1 schools decide on their own?  And is there anyone who could see the NCAA shutting down D1 Fall athletics while allowing D3 schools to play?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

NCAA "leadership" is DIII deciding things as a division as they always do.

The higher ups - being directed by their membership as always - have been trying to give schools as much leeway as possible. At the DIII level, they are making things as easy as possible.

There is a known side of things that they can't just shut things down because it will kill schools off - that is NCAA membership. There are guidelines in place that change when necessary and it is a constant discussion for basically any committee I've been catching up on. I also know ADs and coaches are talking constantly about the what ifs and such.

Remember ... "NCAA" is schools and conferences as members. Those in Indy don't make blanket decisions without membership telling them what they want or need. If membership says, "don't cancel postseasons at this time, we want to give schools a chance to figure out what is best of them in their geographic regions," then the "NCAA" (as in those in Indy) will follow suit.

That is how things work. The decision to cancel winter and spring sports involved NCAA membership at all division levels before it was finally made official.

I think at this time you will see sports from an overall perspective stay in place until there is indications from membership that a full shutdown is necessary. We aren't at that point right now and making that type of decision as we enter July would likely permanently close a number of institutions - if not immediately, within six months to a year.

[Ejay]

Maybe this is Calvin's year!

[PaulNewman]

So for the Winter and Spring seasons, did DIII decide on their own, or allow member schools to decide or their own, or was there a NCAA-wide decision?

Are you saying that D1 football in theory could be canceled while D3 soccer presses on?

[PaulNewman]

Maybe this is Calvin's year!

LOL.  Or Kenyon's!

[Ejay]

Maybe this is Calvin's year!

LOL.  Or Kenyon's!

I thought of saying Kenyon, but wanted to give you the satisfaction :-)

[PaulNewman]

Maybe this is Calvin's year!

LOL.  Or Kenyon's!

I thought of saying Kenyon, but wanted to give you the satisfaction :-)

I would be more than happy to wrap my arms around an asterisk championship! 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

So for the Winter and Spring seasons, did DIII decide on their own, or allow member schools to decide or their own, or was there a NCAA-wide decision?

Are you saying that D1 football in theory could be canceled while D3 soccer presses on?

Two things... the Board of Governors and other Presidential committees were involved with the Winter/Spring decisions. DIII was involved, though a lot of that was being driven by the medical panel they had. Ultimately the Chair of each division's Presidential Committee and the BOG are the ones who spearheaded the decision to scuttle things in the winter/fall championships. So yes, DIII had a say, but remember also ... DIII was already making hard decisions like closing gyms to NCAA tournament games and severely limiting who was in attendance at swim, diving, wrestling championships. DIII was already heading down this road before DI had to start making any kind of decision.

The decision ALSO came AFTER Division III institutions started shutting down spring sports and campuses ... followed by Ivy League and then many, many others. NCAA had already made decisions on tournament games and attendance, but they didn't decide to shut everything down until pretty much all of the schools and conferences I work for plus many, many others had already ended winter and spring efforts. The NCAA didn't follow, but because membership had decided to end things the NCAA had info from their members to end everything as such.

Right now, they are letting members make their decisions. If there comes a time when it is no longer relevant to hold championships, the NCAA will make such a decision.

D1 football - i.e. FBS - is a different beast. Remember, NCAA doesn't hold a championship in that division of the sport (just FCS in D1). The bowl games have nothing to do with the NCAA and the NCAA gets not a single penny from those bowl games. So ... yeah, D1 football could ultimately do something completely different than DIII soccer.

At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised as some sports do split things per division on what is best for each division. We shall see how it all plays out.

[PaulNewman]

That is all very difficult to follow... who makes what decision and in what order, and/or whether there can be a point where all of that is out the window, and a decision is made at one level that trickles down, or just events writ large that have a domino effect even if not technically under the same jurisdictions (like NBA/NFL>D1 Football>D1 sports>D3 sports).

What is your bottom line best guess on what we are going to see with D3 soccer in the Fall?  I personally am guessing that there will not be anything resembling what we are used to in terms of a D3 season or anything that we would call a season, period.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

That is all very difficult to follow... who makes what decision and in what order, and/or whether there can be a point where all of that is out the window, and a decision is made at one level that trickles down, or just events writ large that have a domino effect even if not technically under the same jurisdictions (like NBA/NFL>D1 Football>D1 sports>D3 sports).

What is your bottom line best guess on what we are going to see with D3 soccer in the Fall?  I personally am guessing that there will not be anything resembling what we are used to in terms of a D3 season or anything that we would call a season, period.

Right now ... I think we have DIII soccer in some form in the fall. But I am going to reserve the right to come back and change that depending on how things progress in the coming weeks.

We have seen a few schools decide to forgo sports. I know of a few more that I've been told will likely be on that list as well. But I also know of a number of other schools who are either forging ahead or are not planning to shutdown sports altogether. (I've had more calls, texts, emails with people regarding the upcoming seasons in the last few weeks than I think all of my post-seasons covering DIII combined.)

The thing that is hard to read right now ... is it all could change. If you asked me in March, I saw winter sports shutting down, but not spring (I thought there would be a brief stoppage, but not a cancellation as of March). Come April and into May, I thought we wouldn't see any professional sports restart in any capacity. In the beginning of June, I thought fall sports might look a little different, but they would move forward just fine with even MLB trying to finish up a season (NBA and NHL having maybe done some kind of finals, but ...). And then in the last week, I started to wonder if there would be enough schools to play certain sports, if other sports like basketball would shift the start of the season to, say, Jan. 1 or so, and other things as I saw numbers skyrocketing in parts of the country.

Right now, I have work (first since March 11) starting on July 10 and then another gig starting, hopefully, July 24. I know the July 10 one is good unless things explode in far crazier ways. The July 24 one I am starting to worry about. But the fall and winter sports are far enough away that my mentality is things could calm down ... maybe.

So right now ... I think fall sports will take place, but look pretty different. Fall championships likely take place in some capacity. Winter sports ... lots of questions.

Next week or late July ... this could look completely different.

[Buck O.]

An essential part of the college experience is being around other people, in classes, in dorms, in dining halls, and yes, in athletics.  Williams today announced a plan to test every student on return, and then test every student weekly.  Dining halls will be closed except for grab and go.  No sports.  If we are going to live in such fear of a virus that in Massachusetts has killed 0 people from 0-19 and 15 under the age of 30 (a rate of 1 per 100,000 people, with 98.2 % of all deaths in MA having 1 or more significant underlying health conditions), we are not living at all.  In their zeal to avoid any kind of risk to anyone, colleges may cause themselves significant loss of enrollment.  What is the point of paying big $ for a college education that is increasingly likely to be at least partially remote and which does not include athletics (varsity or club)?  According to Williams, 60% of their student body participates in either varsity or club sports.   

It isn't the fear of those in the age group who attend a college dying from this ... but that they pass it on to others who are more at risk including, but not limited to, professors, parents, grandparents, and many, many others.

Also, while no one in that age group has died in Massachusetts, Williams students come from far outside the state and those states those numbers aren't the same.

There is more going on here than just what is happening in Massachusetts and what the death numbers are for this age group. This age group can easily transport this virus to many other places without ever realizing they had it.

Exactly right, Dave.  A few months ago, FL was imposing quarantines on visitors from NY.  Now the shoe is on the other foot.

CSO, it's important to recognize that when you hear that R0, the transmission rate, is less than one, that does mean that if that rate is sustained, it would die out eventually, but the emphasis is on the word "eventually."  If R0 = 0.95, for example, then each additional college student who is infected would infect another 0.95 people on average, who would infect another 0.95^2 = 0.9025 people, and so on.  The total number of people infected in that chain?  20.   So the one college student who starts that chain is just the tip of the tip of the iceberg.

One other thing: Yes, most of the people who die from COVID-19 have co-morbidities.  If it kills me, I'll be one of them.  But lots of people have these co-morbidities, and many, likely most, of those co-morbidities wouldn't have killed those people in the absence of COVID.  So let's not pretend that the effects of the disease are limited to a few people who are easily isolated and had one foot in the grave anyway.