Covid Impacts on Upcoming Season

[WUPHF]

Colleges are worried that infection rates among students will become high enough that they will have no choice but to close campuses again. And the public will go looking for answers and ask why did you do X or Y, prompting more lawsuits.

[Dubuquer]

Here is what can be an easy determination ... look at endowments.

So far many of the schools (15?) who have decided to forgo fall/first semester sports have pretty healthy endowments. Those who need enrollment, especially from athletics, to keep strong as an institution aren't going to make the same decisions unless there is absolutely no other choice.

I think Dave hit the nail on the head with this one.  Not having fall sports could be an existential crisis for private schools with small enrollments, small endowments and large (and/or successful) athletic departments. If you're a school with 50% of your students participating in athletics and sports are canceled some of those students are not going to enroll - they may take a year off, or take classes at their local CC or transfer to a big state school.  If half of the athletes choose that option (which I think is probably high, but it might be in the realm of possibility) then that school is suddenly down 25% in enrollment.  That's enough to necessitate the drastic cuts that begin the rapid downward spiral of an institution.

Another thing to note is that a lot of colleges in the midwest are in rural small towns that don't have a lot of medical resources to begin with.  And these rural communities generally skew older than average so the residents are more likely to feel the wrath of COVID-19.  Bringing a bunch of kids from all over the country or all over the region practically guarantees that COVID-19 will begin circulating in those communities if it isn't already.

It's a really bad situation all around.  Many colleges and universities were struggling before the virus.  I don't envy college administrators trying to figure out what to do amidst all the uncertainty and trying to balance the livelihoods of students, employees, their communities and their institutions.

[Shamrock]

Is that true though, Dubuquer?

I completely agree that the virus puts college administrators in a real difficult position from a safety, pedagogical, and financial standpoint, but with respect to their athletes, I'm not confident that losing a season (in and of itself) is going to have a significant impact on enrollment.

It comes down to this: is a Div-III student-athlete that invested in his or her athletic career that they are willing to put their education on pause, or materially change their educational environment, by going to a state school or a community college?  It's a difficult question to answer because the educational environment at their Div-III school is likely to be different (at least temporarily) than what they would normally expect at their Div-III institution.  I suppose that every student-athlete's answer to that question is going to be slightly different, but I would assume that, given the fact that they decided to come to a Div-III school in the first place, that student athlete is not going to upset their entire academic career over a single season lost.

I don't know.  We are living in an extraordinary time.  Just my opinion.

[Dubuquer]

I'm not sure how big an impact a season or year of canceled sports would have on enrollment.  That remains to be seen.  I would hope that student athletes are emphasizing the "student" side of the equation, but students are social and if classes are all online and they can't socialize with teammates or other students in person then I have to think that there will be more than a handful that choose to take the semester or year off (although given the job situation and inability to travel that seems unlikely) or, what I think is more likely, the first- and second-year students will choose to go to community colleges or larger, cheaper state schools rather than pay the higher tuition at smaller private schools.  Junior and seniors may have enough invested in their chosen school that they will stay enrolled and take the classes online.  I think the at-risk schools are afraid that they can not afford to be in front of the curve and have to be pitching the line that they will be open for face to face instruction and sports.  Even a modest enrollment decline puts them at risk.  We will see what happens.  I hope I'm wrong and small schools can make this all work out and the 21-22 academic year is business as usual!

[Hopkins92]

what I think is more likely, the first- and second-year students will choose to go to community colleges or larger, cheaper state schools rather than pay the higher tuition at smaller private schools.

As a parent with 2 kids in college, the idea of paying a massively expensive tuition for online classes is really REALLY not appealing. One of my kids is going the CC route in the fall, the other is sticking with the virtual route, as it is clear school is moving toward a hybrid approach that lowers risk but allows for some interaction/class time.

It's their choice, but I'm fully supportive of taking a semester/year off until things become less uncertain on campus.

[Buck O.]

what I think is more likely, the first- and second-year students will choose to go to community colleges or larger, cheaper state schools rather than pay the higher tuition at smaller private schools.

As a parent with 2 kids in college, the idea of paying a massively expensive tuition for online classes is really REALLY not appealing. One of my kids is going the CC route in the fall, the other is sticking with the virtual route, as it is clear school is moving toward a hybrid approach that lowers risk but allows for some interaction/class time.

It's their choice, but I'm fully supportive of taking a semester/year off until things become less uncertain on campus.

As a parent with one kid in college, I would say the same.  But I would also say that the decision as to whether my son's college will participate in fall intercollegiate sports will have virtually no impact on our decision.

[PaulNewman]

I'm hearing MIT although I can't find anything easily on the website.

[Ron Boerger]

I'm hearing MIT although I can't find anything easily on the website.

Pat just posted an update to the page where they are keeping track of these, https://www.d3sports.com/notables/2020/06/schools-call-it-off-for-fall

The MIT update is buried in the student paper's story discussing "seniors only" for the semester:  https://thetech.com/2020/07/07/fall-details-only-seniors - the actual MIT FAQ is apparently restricted.

[Ommadawn]

Here's the scoop from COVID19.mit.edu:

Athletics, physical education, wellness, and recreation

What is the plan for MIT's Fall 2020 varsity athletics program?

To eliminate the possibility of transmission and infection during games and matches, MIT will not participate in athletic competitions during the Fall 2020 season. Institutions around the country in Division III have announced similar decisions.

A final decision about winter sports has not been made yet. Winter sports athletes and coaches should be aware that, if the winter season does in fact move forward, it would begin no earlier than January 1, 2021. Decisions about winter and spring varsity sports will be made in accordance with guidance from federal, state, and local health authorities, as well as any scheduling directives from the New England Women's and Men's Athletic Conference (NEWMAC), the Patriot League (women's openweight crew), and the United Volleyball Conference (men's volleyball).

[Ejay]

Entire Centennial Conference done for the fall  https://www.centennial.org/sports/general/2020-21/fall_2020

LANCASTER, Pa. -- The following is a statement regarding athletic activity for the fall 2020 semester.
In response to the unprecedented challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Centennial Conference Presidents Council has been meeting diligently to address the safety and well-being of students, faculty, staff, and their communities. As institutions finalize their plans for the coming year, federal, state, and local health guidance, as well as institutional policies, will guide their independent decisions regarding reopening. 

Given health and other related concerns, the Centennial Conference Presidents Council has decided to suspend any inter-collegiate competition for sports scheduled for the fall semester. The presidents will reevaluate this decision by the end of September, based on work to be done by the Conference to assess sports-specific activities and the experiences on the schools' campuses. The presidents have determined football will not be played in the fall. The Conference will also explore the possibility of shifting certain fall sports, including football, to the spring.   

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Entire Centennial Conference done for the fall  https://www.centennial.org/sports/general/2020-21/fall_2020

LANCASTER, Pa. -- The following is a statement regarding athletic activity for the fall 2020 semester.
In response to the unprecedented challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Centennial Conference Presidents Council has been meeting diligently to address the safety and well-being of students, faculty, staff, and their communities. As institutions finalize their plans for the coming year, federal, state, and local health guidance, as well as institutional policies, will guide their independent decisions regarding reopening. 

Given health and other related concerns, the Centennial Conference Presidents Council has decided to suspend any inter-collegiate competition for sports scheduled for the fall semester. The presidents will reevaluate this decision by the end of September, based on work to be done by the Conference to assess sports-specific activities and the experiences on the schools' campuses. The presidents have determined football will not be played in the fall. The Conference will also explore the possibility of shifting certain fall sports, including football, to the spring.

So no it is not done for the fall.

Football is done, but all other sports will be reevaluated in September. I am told that this is to evaluate things once students return to the campuses that are still open (majority of the conference, so far). At that time if things are felt to be okay, they will look to start fall sports with in-conference games only. So, fall sports still have access to AQs other than football unless in September the presidents decide otherwise.

I know that much of this is because some presidents wanted a full shutdown and others did not. So, this is a "one foot in, one foot out" approach for now.

[fishercats]

MIAA released a revised schedule for Fall.

A few observations:

- This reverts back to the format from a couple years back where teams play each other twice.
- Not sure if this is just hopeful thinking from the conference or whether all the participating schools have made a decision about the fall.
- Unclear what a non-conference schedule will look like. These teams need to play the likes of Chicago, North Park, ONU, Case and others to see where they fall.

https://www.miaa.org/general/2019-20/releases/MIAA_Fall_2020_Schedules_Announced

[PaulNewman]

The Centennial announcement strikes me as interesting in a number of ways, and can be read in at least several different ways.  An optimistic take (play ends up happening in the Fall) seems very, very hopeful at best.

My first reaction was that the statement is smart in terms of providing wiggle room, and if for some reason we look like we are really in the clear come September the conference and its schools could fashion a season together.  I won't debate here whether the situation will look better or worse in mid-September, and, if better, with also a positive forecast for October and November, but I'm also not sure how one could read that statement and not think that at least right now the conference is leaning heavily towards not having a season and is not expecting to have one (and hence the reference to possibly moving some sports to Spring). 

My second reaction was that the statement is smart in terms of getting athletes back to campus with a vague promise that if things do look really good then there is room for them to change course.  The language about further consideration by the end of September also would not bring me much comfort as a player.  If it is really the end of September, and presuming a need for at least 10 days to 2 weeks of training before official games, then actual play might not start until at least a week or more into October.  Now if they decided to have a season by mid-September, then maybe that works a little better.

My third reaction was that for the segment of D3 soccer players who are making their returns to campus this Fall contingent on the likelihood of there being a season, the statement is not helpful.  I have no idea how many players might fall into this category, but I would think there would be some especially for some with the most competitive programs.

Finally, the Centennial is one of the conferences with a big mix of schools in terms of financial health/wealth.  Hopkins, Swat, and Haverford, and I assume F&M, Dickinson, and maybe Gettysburg, can weather the storm more easily than the others.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

A coupe of things per the Centennial ... there are no limits on what campuses do with teams between the time they arrive and if sports possible start up in late September. So, coaches and such could have practices. The only thing suspended are the games at this time and they could be restarted in-conference in late September.

I can tell you that there is no agreement on one plan or another in the conference. There are presidents who tend to dictate how things will be that seem to want things shut down, but they have run into presidents who are clearly not of that opinion and this was the "compromise." Football squashed for the season, but all other sports temporarily suspended pending how things look when students are back on campus for awhile.

And moving to spring can be mentioned, but the Centennial is full of national powerhouse lacrosse programs ... I think moving sports to the spring will be pretty much impossible in terms of facility usage, athletic training staff abilities and availabilities, sports information availability, game day staffing, locker room space, etc., etc., etc. and that is assuming the pandemic hasn't still got things pretty complicated.

While some of the teams in the conference seem to have financial wealth, I know things are tough right now. Don't assume even schools like Dickinson and Gettysburg could weather the storm. Some endowments aren't as large as you would think and some couldn't bail them out anyway. I also am told that Hopkins is expecting to lose half-a-billion-dollars where things stand NOW and they are expecting students back on campus this fall (more on that in a minute). The loss of international students potentially at Hopkins is going to have a devastating affect. Now throw in the athletics student body and that is another major hit. Not that Hopkins isn't going to survive this, but if this is the impact facing them imagine what smaller institutions are dealing with.

Odd note about the conference: Back in the NCAA tournament for basketball, Hopkins was the first to shut their doors per COVID for competition and have no fans in attendance (though, they were inconsistent; basketball was closed by lacrosse had thousands of fans that same weekend and baseball had fans in attendance as well). Hopkins being a research hospital school certainly knows their stuff, though it was a crazy few weeks in March. Fast forward to now and the school is planning to welcome students back. They still have access to the best scientists and doctors and they are moving forward. Others in their own conference, likely having heard the same information Hopkins itself has heard, is not. Just interesting.

[PaulNewman]

It will be more interesting if it turns out that Hopkins is one of the schools strongly endorsing going ahead and playing.  I mentioned elsewhere that such a pronouncement from a Hopkins, Wash U, Chicago, Emory, etc would be highly influential and give other schools cover for proceeding.  Welcoming students back is not by itself an endorsement of athletics going ahead.

If teams can do full practices right away and even show up on the dates they originally were supposed to report, then I'm not sure why they wouldn't just go ahead and play. 

It's not entirely clear to me if the financial hit is as big as advertised, in terms of the impact of whether athletes come back or not.  I know athletes can be as much as 35-40% of a student body, but the number not coming back specifically because of a missed Fall season has got to be significantly less, and I would think there is some variance among sports and maybe also to some degree gender.  Is a cross-country kid in his senior year not going to come back because there's no cross-country season?  Is a soccer player who usually is a sub going to skip a year just for that?  I'm sure colleges are anxious about people not returning in general if the plan involves limited residential and campus life and virtual classes.

And I have viewed the "maybe in the Spring" suggestion as mostly an appeasement and "let 'em down easy" kind of strategy.

At any rate, the wording is what it is.  And I'm not sure how a message of "for now, we won't be playing, but we'll consider the matter again by late September" gives a strong enough signal for athletes on the fence about going to school or opting out to go ahead and come.