Covid Impacts on Upcoming Season

[Ejay]

Is a cross-country kid in his senior year not going to come back because there's no cross-country season?  Is a soccer player who usually is a sub going to skip a year just for that?

Speaking from personal experience, I played at a school that was occasional ranked but always finished outside the tournament and the T25.  I was all-conference and had a year of eligibility left when I graduated. Coach tried to convince me to come back for grad school to use that year.  While it sounded fun, I realistically never gave it serious consideration. I suspect a large majority of today's current players would do likewise. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised to see an incoming freshman decide to wait a year to start school.

[WUPHF]

It's not entirely clear to me if the financial hit is as big as advertised, in terms of the impact of whether athletes come back or not.  I know athletes can be as much as 35-40% of a student body, but the number not coming back specifically because of a missed Fall season has got to be significantly less, and I would think there is some variance among sports and maybe also to some degree gender. 

Two thoughts...

If the Fall season had been cancelled last Fall for whatever reason, a certain percentage of students may have imagined a gap-year that involved an internship, research, backpacking through Europe and so on.  This Fall, the alternatives are what?

The financial hit is going to be big for everyone who brings in a lot of auxiliary revenue and that is a lot of institutions.  This is not only revenue from dormitories, food service, summer camps and so on, but also revenue from medical care and much more.

People go back to the notion of institutional wealth (e.g. endowments) and such...

If you are Johns Hopkins, of course, you are going to be open 100 years from now, but for the short term, you are going to be facing budget cuts, reductions, etc. 

Unfortunately, the auxiliary revenues are going to kill off a number of Division III schools this year without a state or federal bailout.  Hard to know how many.

[WUPHF]

No one should feel sorry for Stanford, but: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/08/stanford-eliminates-11-varsity-sports/

[Ron Boerger]

The UAA has weighed in, basically teams have the freedom to do what they want, there won't be a conference schedule per se (tho teams can play each other):  https://uaa.prestosports.com/sports/general/2020-21/uaafallstatement

It makes sense, at this time, to move away from a conference-adopted schedule.  While we will continue to try to maintain UAA playing relationships as a priority, each UAA institution needs the flexibility to find additional local sport partners with which to compete, as they are able.

...

This resolution applies only to those sports for which the UAA sponsors championship competition during the fall (i.e., soccer, volleyball, and cross country).

[WUPHF]

I think we can assume that we will have a few more changes before the Fall begins, but if the UAA is able to continue as planned, that would leave a team such as Washington University needing 5 games in October and 1 game in November assuming that they play Chicago.

Hard to think about these with so much left to be determined...

[stlawus]

SLU's AD announced yesterday fall sports are still on but with a start date no earlier than September 26th with reduced OOC matchups which make sense.  I know RPI scrapped fall sports but I'm assuming most LL schools will be taking a similar approach to SLU.   I know the schedules will be reduced but I am wondering if they will schedule additional in conference games.   It would obviously lead to unbalanced schedules but I'm just curious if that would be an option. 

[Red Dog]

LL has posted a statement on their website. League games plus two out of league games and a playoff and championship. First game Sept 26. There may be one other LL school on the fence with RPI but every other school is apparently intending to participate pending approval from NY and circumstances as they unfold beyond their control.

[jaybird44]

Carnegie Mellon cancelling fall sports for 2020:

https://athletics.cmu.edu/generalnews/2019-2020/cmu2020fallstatement

Decision came after the UAA made this statement:

https://washubears.com/general/2020-21/releases/20200708fnfmig

[Gregory Sager]

Jay and WUPHF, my guess is that Wash U and Chicago are going to contact the CCIW and/or the MWC and try to fill out their schedules for men's and women's soccer, men's and women's XC, and for women's volleyball by attaching to one league or the other on a temporary basis. (I doubt that the invitation would extend to formally taking part in the standings and conference tournaments and possibly taking the AQ, but who knows?) Given that the various teams in both of those leagues are going to have to alter their schedules for those sports, anyway, this might be feasible.

[jknezek]

Jay and WUPHF, my guess is that Wash U and Chicago are going to contact the CCIW and/or the MWC and try to fill out their schedules for men's and women's soccer, men's and women's XC, and for women's volleyball by attaching to one league or the other on a temporary basis. (I doubt that the invitation would extend to formally taking part in the standings and conference tournaments and possibly taking the AQ, but who knows?) Given that the various teams in both of those leagues are going to have to alter their schedules for those sports, anyway, this might be feasible.

My guess is neither of those schools are going to play. Neither need to and with peer schools like CMU and now hearing Case about to let go of the season, it wouldn't surprise me to see these fall away also. I truly believe that the vast majority of schools that aren't afraid of losing significant student athlete dollars won't play.

[WUPHF]

Yeah, I was hesitating on building my own schedule because I do not expect them to play.

I feel like everything is going to come crashing down in August.

I mean, why repopulate the dorms, dining halls, libraries and then say sorry, but no soccer?

[PaulNewman]

It's not entirely clear to me if the financial hit is as big as advertised, in terms of the impact of whether athletes come back or not.  I know athletes can be as much as 35-40% of a student body, but the number not coming back specifically because of a missed Fall season has got to be significantly less, and I would think there is some variance among sports and maybe also to some degree gender. 

Two thoughts...

If the Fall season had been cancelled last Fall for whatever reason, a certain percentage of students may have imagined a gap-year that involved an internship, research, backpacking through Europe and so on.  This Fall, the alternatives are what?

The financial hit is going to be big for everyone who brings in a lot of auxiliary revenue and that is a lot of institutions.  This is not only revenue from dormitories, food service, summer camps and so on, but also revenue from medical care and much more.

People go back to the notion of institutional wealth (e.g. endowments) and such...

If you are Johns Hopkins, of course, you are going to be open 100 years from now, but for the short term, you are going to be facing budget cuts, reductions, etc. 

Unfortunately, the auxiliary revenues are going to kill off a number of Division III schools this year without a state or federal bailout.  Hard to know how many.

Absolutely, everyone is going to suffer, paralleling the crisis at large for most of the country.  Yes, some will suffer more than others, but no one wants to be canceling sports and limiting students on campus.  I have to think that the schools, going in both directions, have tried to think through all the details very carefully.

My question is more about the impact of athletics alone.  Some schools already are limiting how many can be on campus, period.  What portion of revenue loss can be attributed directly to not having a Fall season, aside from the school's general restrictions and mitigation efforts?  And for those who intended to come back to campus if permitted to do so, how many are athletes who will decide not to return if the season is shut down?  Unless I am really missing something, it is the virus that is causing hardship....not whether or not colleges have a Fall season. 

I looked at the Hopkins website regarding overall plans for having students return.  They may be welcoming them back, but the restrictions are pretty extensive...masks everywhere inside and out and all other kinds of precautions.  While reading all of it I had a hard time picturing sports teams playing there.

If there is some real substance to the possibility of schools/conferences moving soccer to the Spring that clearly would be a far from normal season unless the whole division followed suit.  I assume they wouldn't have two NCAA tournaments.

The CWRU reference struck me as Case easily could put together a very local schedule with OAC, some NCAC, northwestern PA schools, and even Rochester.

[PaulNewman]

NYT.....Ivy League announces all sports on hold until January.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Again... notice that the decisions are high-endowment schools which are suspending sports. I just don't think this is going to be a huge wave in general ... not at this time.

Random: I realized today that half of last year's championship weekend teams will not be playing soccer this fall. Amherst men, RPI men, Pomona-Pitzer women, Carnegie Mellon women.

That was a gut check to realize.

[jamtod]

I just don't think this is going to be a huge wave in general ... not at this time.

So will it be a second wave... or just a mini-plateau and then continuation of the first wave?