Covid Impacts on Upcoming Season

[PaulNewman]

A few reactions...

I would love to see detailed projected attrition rates....like how many won't be going to their schools regardless of how "normal" or how much campus life is being proposed, how many truly will base a decision on their school's intended plan to play, how many will decide based on their own assessment of the likelihood of a season aside from what their school is telling them, and how many will go back no matter what because after all I'm a senior, this is D3 after all, and I have plans for a job or grad school after graduation.

Schools with lesser endowments can be sued too.

My read of the Centennial statement is very different.  Yes, so far, Swat and Haverford have made more definitive statements.  But while some Centennial schools may be hoping, the lean in the statement is pretty strongly towards not playing.  As it stands, they aren't playing, but the door is open to reconsider.  Football already is out across the board in the CC.  And wrt to the NESCAC, I'd be surprised if any play, and I'd shocked if it's more than two.  Trinity has a much higher endowment than I thought, so the only ones with relatively low endowments are Conn and Bates.  The rest are over 700-800 million with several well over a billion.

In addition to my ongoing "watch what happens with the NBA" closely theme, I now would add keeping an eye on the OAC which currently appears to be strongly intending to play.  CWRU and Oberlin are right there in that backyard (yeah, I know).  And I would assume whatever happens with Ohio State could ripple.  I of course will be interested in what Kenyon does, which has an OK endowment (400 mill+) compared to peers but not nearly as high as Oberlin, Denison and DePauw.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The attrition rates will have to come after the fact. As one coach pointed out to me and an AD confirmed, some of these decisions may not come until the student is climbing into the car with their parents - or on the drive - and suddenly decides they are not coming or decides to go through with it. Heck, a gig I am working (I am finally working after four months - at least for a few weeks) starting this weekend had a few people back out this week. I thought it was because of testing results (positive COVID tests). It turns out it is because their families (or wife specifically) suddenly didn't want them to go as the moment arrived.

Yes, schools with lesser endowments can be sued, but the hit of not reopening fully will be a bigger and more assured toll than the possibility of being sued. A larger endowed school knows they can withstand the financial hit of not having students on campus and fear the lawsuit more.

And high endowments doesn't mean they absolutely will keep students home and not have athletics. Johns Hopkins is planning on students on campus and wants to have sports ... I'm simply pointing out that not a lot of low-endowment schools will make the same decisions as high-endowment schools right now.

Understand my "read" on the Centennial Conference is talking to people in the conference. This is what I've been doing around the country for the last month-plus. I know you don't know me as much as other sports know me, but I work very hard to stay on top of things in the Division in all sports ... and I've been talking to coaches and ADs (and others) around the country. I am also in Centennial country and have a lot of contacts here. My read is more than just "I think I see this happening" and more of "this is what I've been told."

As for the NESCAC... it's the same. I'm talking to people in that conference. There are member institutions who have said "we will play (an in-state, non-conference member) three times in soccer if we have to" rather than shut the doors to students on campus as other schools have decided. I have at least four on my list who fit that description. The simplest way you can read into the NESCAC right now is what is the conference saying. Days before Bowdoin made their decision, the conference came out with a statement of "schools need to do what is best for them" type statement. They knew Bowdoin was going to announce what they announced. And the conference knew what Williams, Amherst, and some others would announce (some have maybe changed their minds, by the way; I was told at least one school that has announced they are hedging their bets was going to announce the same as Bowdoin, but they haven't now). If the NESCAC was killing things off and were speaking as one ... they would have already beaten the Ivy to the punch - as they did last March.

And I am not one to say "watch the NBA closely." I think the Golbert situation just happened to be the breaking point last March. Right now, MLB might be worth watching more closely because they are the ones who will be going in and out of other cities and hot spots with a testing system that right now is a mess.

Other than that... these decisions are going to be geographical and regional at best. What works for the midwest isn't necessarily going to work for Southern California, etc.

[Ejay]

Speaking of attrition... at schools that aren't playing this fall I'd be curious to see how many players say F 'it, and give up the sport.  I don't think it will be a lot, but I can definitely see instances of kids realizing they don't really miss it.  Remember, most of these kids have been playing soccer for 10-12 months a year for the last 10 years.  This forced break might just be the nudge they need to pursue other interests.

[PaulNewman]

Dave, I think it's fair to say that you and I are not the best of pals....which is a little silly because we know virtually nothing about each other at all beyond reacting to and responding to posts on a D3 soccer chat board.

I respect what you do and I think it's great that you support and promote D3 sports.  From what I have consumed over the past handful of years, you do a really nice job as a broadcaster as well.  I also respect your role and view of yourself as an "insider."  I don't think that means that we (or I) should sit around, hold our own thoughts and opinions, and wait for you to tell us "what's really going on" (and then by definition adjust our own views accordingly).  The number of phone calls you have had with really important people "in the know" probably isn't going to impact my thinking a ton, or maybe it will, but not by necessity. I could call "Woj" or even Adam Silver himself right now and hear that the NBA is full steam ahead, the teams have flown in and gotten settled in the bubble, and Lebron is taking selfies with Mickey.  Silver telling me that, completely in good faith, doesn't mean they will pull it off, and I can have my own opinion about whether they will.  I hope they do.  I'm starving for the NBA, I want to see Lebron vs Zion in the first round, and I want to see how far Brad Stevens (DePauw great!) can take the Celtics.  As an aside given your comment above, if the NBA with literally billions and billions on the line and no certainty about '20-'21 cannot make it work inside a bubble, then I have doubts about campuses pulling off athletics no matter what ADs and school Presidents are hoping or insisting today.

I would say that I will now try to refrain from posting, but I really enjoy posting lol, and so I won't make that commitment at this time.

[jknezek]

Second MLS team is removed from Tournament. Nashville had 9 positives. I think the only way we have a DIII season is if we DON'T test... and no, I'm not advocating that kind of idiocy.

I stand by what I posted this a.m., schools are going to try. But with the h.s. and college workouts we are seeing now, let alone the issues we are seeing with the "best of everything" pros, groups of players are regularly testing positive and shutting things down for weeks. It's pretty clear that players are going to test positive all over the place. Then what? Do you skip 2 weeks of your schedule because all the players were in contact? Forfeit 2-4 games? At that point it's not a season, it's just a few scrimmages because everything becomes luck of the draw.

Now if you don't test, you don't know. And at $100 a pop for tests, I'm thinking this will be the way schools go. Only testing when someone has symptoms. But then do you test everyone else on the team, because they all had contact? Everyone on all teams? Shared training space, weight rooms, dorms, classrooms, cafeterias, it's not like Player A hasn't been in contact with just teammates, but other sports players and general student body.

Such a sad mess. I feel so bad for the players who have lost and might lose one of those precious seasons.

[WUPHF]

Speaking of attrition... at schools that aren't playing this fall I'd be curious to see how many players say F 'it, and give up the sport. 

I think this could be a serious problem for schools in conferences such as the SLIAC.

[WUPHF]

Second MLS team is removed from Tournament. Nashville had 9 positives. I think the only way we have a DIII season is if we DON'T test... and no, I'm not advocating that kind of idiocy.

When you test, you have a case.

If we didn't have any testing, we would have very few cases.

Do we reach heard immunity before we get a vaccine?

[jamtod]

Second MLS team is removed from Tournament. Nashville had 9 positives. I think the only way we have a DIII season is if we DON'T test... and no, I'm not advocating that kind of idiocy.

When you test, you have a case.

If we didn't have any testing, we would have very few cases.

Do we reach herd immunity before we get a vaccine?

Not likely. The prospect of achieving herd immunity through infection is almost unheard of in modern times, and any widescale herd immunity would be fairly catastrophic on a short time frame. Without the likelihood of lifetime immunity, at current spread rates, we'd be looking at a few years to reach herd immunity. In that time, a fair number of the early infected are going to be going back into the non-immune pool.

[WUPHF]

+1 Thanks for that.  It is interesting how under control the situation is in some of the European countries.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Dave, I think it's fair to say that you and I are not the best of pals....which is a little silly because we know virtually nothing about each other at all beyond reacting to and responding to posts on a D3 soccer chat board.

I respect what you do and I think it's great that you support and promote D3 sports.  From what I have consumed over the past handful of years, you do a really nice job as a broadcaster as well.  I also respect your role and view of yourself as an "insider."  I don't think that means that we (or I) should sit around, hold our own thoughts and opinions, and wait for you to tell us "what's really going on" (and then by definition adjust our own views accordingly).  The number of phone calls you have had with really important people "in the know" probably isn't going to impact my thinking a ton, or maybe it will, but not by necessity. I could call "Woj" or even Adam Silver himself right now and hear that the NBA is full steam ahead, the teams have flown in and gotten settled in the bubble, and Lebron is taking selfies with Mickey.  Silver telling me that, completely in good faith, doesn't mean they will pull it off, and I can have my own opinion about whether they will.  I hope they do.  I'm starving for the NBA, I want to see Lebron vs Zion in the first round, and I want to see how far Brad Stevens (DePauw great!) can take the Celtics.  As an aside given your comment above, if the NBA with literally billions and billions on the line and no certainty about '20-'21 cannot make it work inside a bubble, then I have doubts about campuses pulling off athletics no matter what ADs and school Presidents are hoping or insisting today.

I would say that I will now try to refrain from posting, but I really enjoy posting lol, and so I won't make that commitment at this time.

I, in no way, expect anyone to not express their opinions. I simply am trying to help understand that my thoughts on the matter aren't coming from me being on the outside trying to read the tea leaves, but from what people are actually telling me has happened. It is the best way to inform people and I don't want it to be confused with me guessing at what might be going on. So, I was simply trying to convey to you that what I was saying is what has happened.

I will say that I have had many an occasion when people will try and indicate that what I have reported is inaccurate or simply will pretend I said nothing ... only to have what I reported be absolutely true. The ACAA/CAC merger comes to mind recently. Does that mean I might get something wrong? Absolutely. I don't expect to have a perfect track record, but I also sit on anything I am unsure of or simply say I am unsure of the information I have received. I break or report far less than I hear - by a healthy margin.

And sure, things change ... I've stated that a lot in this current situation. Anything I am saying or reporting about the Centennial or others could change in a month with the ever-changing world we are living in.

Sure, if the NBA can't make it work I would agree that things are rather clumsy at best for everyone else. My only point with the MLB is that it presents a more real-world scenario of changing cities and locales, even staying in other places, that will cause the biggest stress. Sadly, no college can bubble itself and expect to be playing any competition what-so-ever.

As for the "not the best of pals," I have nothing for you. Sadly, it started on the wrong foot, but that doesn't mean I stay on that same foot for all times. I am simply repying to your comments and supplying information that I have worked on myself. If I don't have anything, I don't say anything. And I don't view myself as an 'insider.' I simply work hard to gather as much information as I can about Division III, it's conferences, and it's members. I do my best to then inform the larger public about what is going on. My goal has never been to get a scoop or to break news. That sometimes happens as it falls in my lap or I work something that ends up giving me an opportunity, but I can tell you that right now I am sitting on several items that I won't break or report on because it isn't my place. Someone like HoopDirt or others won't have the same level of scrutiny and want to show they are more 'insider' - I don't find that helpful. Sometimes it is better to be informed and ready to report and reply to a story than it is to be the one that breaks it and prove one to be an inside. Of course, we may be using the term differently.

And don't worry ... starting this weekend you might not hear much from me. I will be out of town for work - I finally have work for the first time since March 11. It will be the longest I've ever been away from home for work (two weeks; was asked to be gone a month), so it will be new for me.

[Gregory Sager]

Now if you don't test, you don't know. And at $100 a pop for tests, I'm thinking this will be the way schools go.

We may see batch testing, which is cheaper, used as a screening method instead of only testing symptomatic student-athletes, or screening by testing members of a team one-by-one.

[PaulNewman]

Fair reply, Dave.  Appreciated.  Good luck on your trip.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Fair reply, Dave.  Appreciated.  Good luck on your trip.

Thanks. If anyone is a tennis fan ... you might see some of my work (though, it is a team effort) on ESPN2, ESPN+, Tennis Channel, CBS SportsNetwork, and even Facebook Watch.

The job is with World TeamTennis. Producing and AD for something like 16 matches in ten days (roughly). I am only there for half of the entire "season" which finishes Aug. 2.

[midwest]

NCAC announces that there can be a fall season -- though schools can choose to do less than NCAC provides. In-conference play, nothing before mid-September, and no overnight travel.   https://www.northcoast.org/News/2020-21/Releases/NCACFallUpdate20?fbclid=IwAR2JhZe6UYpLYfiLVt29YpEr53CNv0QlnQKPg-Fc_J_YWJ62Ab-iL2GZWbc

Oberlin announced yesterday it will not have any fall sports. 

[gfal5]

MAC Announces Update on Fall 2020

7/10/2020 9:00:00 AM

ANNVILLE, Pa. (Conference News) – The Middle Atlantic Conference (MAC) President's Council met on Thursday to discuss athletics for the fall of 2020 and has made the following statement:

The MAC intends to pursue fall athletics competition, with each campus formulating plans for resocialization that will comply with local, state and NCAA guidelines. Competition will be limited to MAC institutional members beginning no earlier than September 18, 2020 and with the goal of reaching NCAA minimums in all sports.

The MAC will continue to prioritize the health and well-being of student-athletes, coaches, campuses and communities and therefore will continue to evaluate both internal and external factors and revisit this decision if necessary.

"It is paramount that each campus prioritizes the health of its entire campus community," said Megan Morrison, MAC Executive Director. "I am hopeful that with carefully crafted resocialization plans, athletics, as an integral piece in the co-curricular experience for so many student-athletes and campuses, may be able to happen this fall."