2021 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

PN RE:  Fan poll #2

My top 10 for this week's poll....

1 Washington & Lee
2 Messiah
3 Tufts
4 Amherst
5 OWU
6 NYU
7 Trinity
8 Emory
9 Oneonta St
10 Johns Hopkins

For whatever reasons I felt more squeezed this week.  I knew I would be dropping Midd, Calvin, Rochester, (and Hope who was in my first top 20 but got edged out in the group poll) significantly, but I initially expected the first three of those to squeeze into the back end of my top 20.  Much tougher than a top 25 (obviously).  At any rate all four of those dropped out of my top 20 while suspecting that at least 2 or 3 will re-enter down the road.

My new additions were F&M at #12, RPI at #14, Wash U at #18, and Conn Coll at #19.  I have Otterbein clinging to the #20 spot.

The four divergences this week compared to the full voter outcome are Midd, Calvin, and Rochester dropping out and my vote of RPI at #14 while RPI only makes the RV category in the group poll.  The other two divergences happened both weeks, as I have had St. Olaf and Pac Lutheran in (and this week have St Olaf at #15 and Pac Luth at #17).  I'm feeling even more confident about putting the Oles and Lutes in, so we'll see.

Below is where I informally had another group of teams, some of whom were strongly considered for one of the last few top 20 spots.

21 Rowan
22 Midd
23 Calvin
24 Rochester
25 Kenyon
26 Redlands
27 North Central
28 North Park
29 Hope
30 Wheaton (Ill)
31 UWW
32 MIT
33 GAC

I'm ambivalent about a few teams that I know are very good like Chicago and JCU (both with big wins last night) but imo they have work to do to warrant a ranking.  I'm also unsettled on North Central who I haven't had in the top 20 in either of the first two polls, so that may be a big error.  UWW has already stumbled this week after I considered placing them higher.   MIT won against Brandeis last night in a very tight game and that is a team I suggest keeping an eye on. 

[FBALLISLIFE]

Man, when's the last time that a Steve Domin Carthage team was goose-egged three straight games? Inquiring minds want to know.

October 2014.  A couple of back-to-back goose eggs since then, but 2014 for a triple.

[Gregory Sager]

That's a pretty healthy stretch of avoiding such prolonged offensive malaise. By contrast, among the two other perennial CCIW powers, Wheaton's last three-goose-eggs streak came in 2016 and North Park's came in 2009. NPU's streak included a scoreless tie against Elmhurst in the middle of those three games, however; the last time that the Vikings lost three straight by shutout was 1999, which was not coincidentally North Park's most recent losing season.

Wheaton's goose-egg streak in 2016 started with a scoreless tie against Kalamazoo, so to find the last three goose eggs Wheaton has posted in a row that were all losses you have to go clear back to 1987, when the Orange and Blue were shut out five straight times, the first in a scoreless tie and the next four via losses. The next season the CCIW made men's soccer an official sport, and the plethora of brand-new and/or sorely neglected men's soccer programs among CCIW schools in that era guaranteed that Wheaton would never starve for goals for very long.

Carthage wasn't exactly rockin' it at the offensive end prior to this current streak, either. The Firebirds had scored only one goal in each of their three games prior to this goose-egg streak, including a 1-1 tie vs. Millikin (1-8-2) and a 1-0 win over Lake Forest (3-9-1).

[PaulNewman]

I was going to post this is in the NESCAC thread and realized a few might have fun adding to this trivia question...

I hadn't realized that Middlebury sort of has become a "cradle of coaches" in NESCAC, with three Middlebury grads as HCs...Tufts, Midd, and Bowdoin...and course the very recent 4th was Shapiro.

I know there are a bunch of coaches with Messiah ancestry, and I can think of three from OWU off the top of my head (St Olaf, Denison, Springfield).

I would guess there are other schools who have produced a few.

[d4_Pace]

Yeah interesting in that the NESCAC had two legendary coaches that were contemporaries in Russo and Seward. Seward mentored those 4 and deserves a lot of the credit for their careers. On the other hand I don't believe there are any current Williams alums coaching in the NESCAC after Sullivan's unceremonious departure. Mr. Right you would be the expert on this subject, do you know of any factors that might explain the difference? 

[PaulNewman]

D4, how are you managing to resist those Tufts program/Shapiro/Dezotell questions/comments from yesterday?  I'm sure you have a ton to say, but no worries if that puts you in a bad spot.

[D3_Slack]

While on the subject of Shapiro.  Is anyone else of the opinion (like I am) that the guy is going to have a huge career?  My prediction - finds his way to MLS and/or the national team.  I played hoops at Tufts in the 90's and my son was recruited by Shapiro but didn't go (at Carnegie Mellon).  But I watched a ton of Tufts soccer and haven't seen a coach organize a team offensively as good as him...not even close.

[PaulNewman]

OK, come clean.  You're either Joe Braun, Sterling Weatherbie, one of the Halliday brothers, or Josh's agent.  Just joking.

Phenomenal coach who fully earned the very high praise he gets routinely on this site, but can we let him win a couple of Ivy League titles before we put him in the MLS or leading the national team?  He's already had (and having) a great career.

I've watched a ton of Tufts soccer myself both live and via streaming and always thought of Tufts as extremely organized, well-balanced, able to make adjustments, and with some firepower, but not necessarily as an offensive juggernaut.  Martin, Brandt, McCarty, Souders, etc have a history of implementing some pretty good offensive systems as well.  Shapiro over the last few years also arguably had the most talent to work with than any coach in D3 (which certainly is a credit to him from a recruiting ability perspective).

[D3_Slack]

Why wait until he's done it to predict it.  I've watched a ton of soccer and his teams look different.  Granted, your frame of reference is so much more rich and informed than mine.  That said, I stand by my viewpoint. 

[Ejay]

Shapiro is certainly on the right trajectory. But if any college coach deserves a big time shot, it's Dave Brandt.  Guy's been a winner everywhere - at all levels.   

Edit to add - not that he wants it and I don't see him leaving Hope anytime soon.

[jknezek]

Why wait until he's done it to predict it.  I've watched a ton of soccer and his teams look different.  Granted, your frame of reference is so much more rich and informed than mine.  That said, I stand by my viewpoint.

It's going to be hard to make that jump. He's roughly 45 now. He's going to need to do something at the D1 level in the next 5 years to gain a bigger D1 job in a hurry, where he can make a real splash, or he's going to need to go be on an MLS staff before he turns 50 so he has a few years to earn an MLS rep. And hiring first time 60 year old head coaches isn't really an MLS MO because there are so many coaches, globally, it's just not needed.

Then you look at the fact that college coaches and professionals rarely work out. Hello Urban Meyer! Or Caleb Porter if you prefer.

Coaching college students, and coaching professionals, is a totally different thing. College coaches, especially at the D1 level in charge of scholarships, can be little Napoleans (a little less with the transfer portal, but still...) At the pro level, you are the most easily interchanged part. The players are basically in charge. At the college level, you are the only part that doesn't move on after 4 or 5 years, so you are the one with all the power.

I doubt he makes an MLS head coaching job. He's just too late to the party. If that's what he wanted to do, he should have found an MLS assistant position rather than the Harvard job.

That being said, I could easily see him moving on to a big-time D1 program in a few years. Way more likely than MLS in my opinion.

[PaulNewman]

Why wait until he's done it to predict it.  I've watched a ton of soccer and his teams look different.  Granted, your frame of reference is so much more rich and informed than mine.  That said, I stand by my viewpoint.

You clearly don't think my frame of reference is more informed, and I have no idea whether it is or not.  There are plenty of folks here who have far more knowledge than I do...like by far.  My soccer coaching experience topped out at U12 town soccer.  I wasn't a soccer player.  I played tennis at Davidson.  I'm a big college and pro basketball fan.  My son wasn't recruited by Shapiro (or really anyone) and played at Kenyon.  I've just hung out on this site for a long time.  You keep saying you went to Tufts and played basketball and watched a ton of Tufts soccer.  OK.  A lot of people here have seen a ton of Tufts soccer...and a ton of soccer in general.  Can you say more about Tufts' offensive prowess under Shapiro's direction?  Did you see any of their losses, or many of the 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 games?

And I'm gonna say no to MLS and the national team.

[D3_Slack]

Tufts was a bit ahead of the curve streaming games.  They have a service called JumboCast that streams games.  I've watched a ton of Tufts hoops as well.  My Tufts basketball coach who I have an excellent relationship with "partnered up" with the soccer program (players would work the clock, etc.) and from the moment he was hired told me to pay attention to Josh (knowing my connection to Tufts and my son playing soccer).  That got me started watching their games.  I am not qualified to offer too deep of an opinion on Shapiro.  The folks on this site with real soccer knowledge would probably laugh.  And the points made earlier about his age, etc. are really good ones.  I happen to be a big fan.  I know what I don't know and I want to stay in my lane.  I do have an opinion however.  Regardless of win or lose, what I noticed from watching the Tufts team is players understand their role and most likely fit the role.  Wingers were fast, able to take on defenders 1v1 really well, etc. and many, many more times in a game than the opponent would be organized in the offensive third with a coordinated set of runs creating space for the person on the ball and options to pass to to goal.  Again, not very technical but my best recollection. 

[PaulNewman]

Agree 100% with everything you wrote.  I think virtually everyone here is extremely impressed with Shapiro, and 4 national titles in six years speaks for itself.

[Hopkins92]

Wait... I'm not a flamethrower or anything, but a guy that has won 2 MLS Cups is considered a failure at the pro level? (ETA - Sorry, talking about Caleb Porter, if not clear.) He was very seriously considered for the NT job on at least two occasions.

I take the overall point, it's very difficult to make that transition. I just don't CP is a very good poster child. You already trotted out a great one, but Nick Saban is probably the very best example in the CFB-->NFL universe.

I would also trot at Bruce Arena as a very strong counter to this argument. Just to continue to e contrary.