2021 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[d4_Pace]

Paul you are absolutely correct. In your example Middlebury was employing an embarrassing out of conference schedule and then usually sitting at 10-11 wins out of 16 games. I remember at Tufts during our early years our goal was to hit 10 wins. At the time we always had a top 5 SOS in the country and hitting 10 was the magic number for us to sweat it out but ultimately get in. I think one of those years in particular we jumped a Midd team with 12 wins but a far worse SOS and less ranked wins.

[PaulNewman]

Paul you are absolutely correct. In your example Middlebury was employing an embarrassing out of conference schedule and then usually sitting at 10-11 wins out of 16 games. I remember at Tufts during our early years our goal was to hit 10 wins. At the time we always had a top 5 SOS in the country and hitting 10 was the magic number for us to sweat it out but ultimately get in. I think one of those years in particular we jumped a Midd team with 12 wins but a far worse SOS and less ranked wins.

Yup.

In fairness, Midd is geographically challenged....even more so than Hamilton (in terms of non-conference options).  Actually, Williams may be almost as challenging as Midd.

That said, Plattsburgh, RPI, and Skidmore are all 1.5 to 2.25 hours away.  SLU, Potsdam, and Springfield are 3 hours, Vassar and Oneonta 3.5 hours, Boston area schools around 3.5 hours (MIT, Brandeis, Wheaton, Babson, etc),  WPI 3.75 hours, Cortland 4.5 hours, and Hobart about 5 hours.

[D3_Slack]

@d4_Pace - I'm also a Tufts grad.  1992.  Played hoops for Sheldon.  So basically if you're in the UAA, NESCAC you schedule 1-2 teams you think will be ranked out of conference (but that aren't top, top teams) and hope to win or tie, then feast on the local mid tier teams to get your win total up and fine tune for the conference season, then go all out in conference games and control your destiny.  If you're good enough you'll win enough games against good teams to get in...even if you're not an AQ.  My son is a freshman at Carnegie Mellon and that seems to be their strategy.  I'd like to see them do what UChicago does and play the best you can.

[PaulNewman]

CMU consistently plays a good schedule and will have a very good SoS.  If CMU played an even tougher schedule they would be at high risk for not winning enough games to have a realistic shot at at-large bids.  In addition to their UAA schedule, CMU usually has at least two games against opponents like JCU, Kenyon, OWU, Messiah, Dickinson (historically solid), Lycoming, etc.  I will say the Tartans appear to have a couple more cupcakes than usual.

[PaulNewman]

Big time, gut check win for Chicago over Calvin after two truly heartbreaking losses.  Just as JCU delivered when desperately needing a major win, Chicago does the same.  Chicago is a very talented team.

I'm getting the impression that Calvin does not have one of their signature teams this year (which doesn't mean they won't be a Final 4 threat and very tough to knock out when the time comes). 

I also have a little bit of that feel with Tufts.  IMO there are only a handful of teams that could knock Tufts out and I would still consider them a favorite to get to Elite 8 or Final 4, but I'm not sure they have a Tasker, Braun, Rojas and/or Lane on the offensive end.  Amherst has that kind of threat with their NPOY candidate.  Could that be the difference?

Meanwhile, OWU is rolling along and Hector Gomez is so far having a NPOY kind of season.  The Jaggar kid is obviously a handful as well.

And of course Messiah is sitting there along with emergent W&L.

I think we're starting to see some separation between the top 5-6 teams and the next tier.

[d4_Pace]

Paul yep a huge win for Chicago tonight. I think you are correct in your assessment. I even think the 2019 team was a big step down from the 2018 team that had Vegter and a few other players that had no business playing d3. They obviously made it back to the final four but a 4-0 loss to Tufts showed they weren't quite at the previous level.

I think Messiah is good like always. I think people are really underrating Amherst off of one result, but they just smoked a good Conn College team on the road this past weekend and still have a player many in the know consider one of the best in NESCAC history.

Tufts graduated probably their strongest class ever last year so a step back was expected. That being said they have been suffering through quite an injury crisis so far this year and have still been able to get results. Hopefully they can reintegrate some of those guys and make another run.

[Ron Boerger]

One more thing that wasn't mentioned in the excerpt I pulled from the NCAA manual.  The Pool C-eligible teams (AQ conferences non-winners, and anyone left from a non-AQ conference that wasn't selected in Pool B, if there are any) in *each NCAA region* are ranked according to those criteria.  The top team from each region is put on the table.  Those teams are then compared against each other, the top one is selected and replaced by the next highest ranked team from that region, and the process repeats until all the Pool C bids are exhausted.  You can be the top eligible team in a weak region and never make it off the table, especially when there are many upsets in conferences whose bid is determined by the winner of a regular season-ending conference tournament.   

[PaulNewman]

Paul yep a huge win for Chicago tonight. I think you are correct in your assessment. I even think the 2019 team was a big step down from the 2018 team that had Vegter and a few other players that had no business playing d3. They obviously made it back to the final four but a 4-0 loss to Tufts showed they weren't quite at the previous level.

I think Messiah is good like always. I think people are really underrating Amherst off of one result, but they just smoked a good Conn College team on the road this past weekend and still have a player many in the know consider one of the best in NESCAC history.

Tufts graduated probably their strongest class ever last year so a step back was expected. That being said they have been suffering through quite an injury crisis so far this year and have still been able to get results. Hopefully they can reintegrate some of those guys and make another run.

I'm certainly not underestimating Amherst.  Spoiler alert:  Amherst in my top 5.

It is amazing what confidence and vibe does to a program.  I don't think Tufts is quite as good but I also can't picture anyone beating them (probably even Amherst).  We've never gotten the Tufts-Messiah rematch.  Maybe this is the year, and if so I hope it's in the Elite 8.

[PaulNewman]

D4, I'm actually curious about your take on something.  My gut tells me Elite 8 games are more nerve-wracking and on edge than Final 4 games or maybe at least the semis.  Or maybe this is more true for programs who would be going to the Final 4 for the first time or first time on a long time.  Would be curious for any other Final 4 participants from any schools chiming in.

Just popped in my head when I was asking myself why I want a Tufts-Messiah Elite 8 game.  In all honesty, at least part of that is me not wanting both (either really) in the Final 4.

[PaulNewman]

Oh my, JCU loses to Penn State-B?

PS-B can be pretty good and almost always wins their league and makes the tournament, but still...

And I'm gonna have to pay more attention to RPI and Washington Coll.

[d4_Pace]

My career ended in the Elite 8 so obviously a little biased there versus my fond memories of the final four. I think there are a few factors. One elite 8 games are on campus which makes it a huge deal. Winning the elite 8 means you're season is still going over Thanksgiving break which makes for a much more enjoyable holiday versus coming off a loss. Finally, the final four is weird. There are so many events and activities leading up to the game that you almost have less time to be nervous.  Our first experience we were the new kids who didn't know any better and had nothing to lose.  then in subsequent years we felt like we know how this works and we're here to win and it doesn't really matter who else is there.

[PaulNewman]

My career ended in the Elite 8 so obviously a little biased there versus my fond memories of the final four. I think there are a few factors. One elite 8 games are on campus which makes it a huge deal. Winning the elite 8 means you're season is still going over Thanksgiving break which makes for a much more enjoyable holiday versus coming off a loss. Finally, the final four is weird. There are so many events and activities leading up to the game that you almost have less time to be nervous.  Our first experience we were the new kids who didn't know any better and had nothing to lose.  then in subsequent years we felt like we know how this works and we're here to win and it doesn't really matter who else is there.

Thanks.  I think for me it's that the stakes of the Elite 8 in terms of winning or losing are just bigger than the Final 4 games.  It determines whether you get to the final 4 or not...and the meaning/significance of getting to a Final 4 compared to getting only to the Elite 8 is massively different. 

[blue_jays]

Big time, gut check win for Chicago over Calvin after two truly heartbreaking losses.  Just as JCU delivered when desperately needing a major win, Chicago does the same.  Chicago is a very talented team.

I'm getting the impression that Calvin does not have one of their signature teams this year (which doesn't mean they won't be a Final 4 threat and very tough to knock out when the time comes). 

After two head-scratching stunners, UChicago played its best game of the season against Calvin. The fact the Maroons kept possession so well was eye-opening (65 percent I bet). This is nothing new for Maroon teams over the past 7 years or so, but it was kinda shocking that Calvin had no real answer for it, and only got off one shot on goal. UChicago kept the ball moving and didn't fall into their typical habits of trying to execute the perfect pass or the cheeky dribble.
The main thing the Maroons showed was they can change their play style and hang with anyone in the nation. They are a very technical team that can play beautiful soccer when they make the right decisions with the ball. The defense is elite (CB Wada in particular). The offense is still a huge question mark though - they simply don't score enough. If they can fix that during UAA play, they will prove dangerous at the NCAAs. That's a big if though.
After watching Calvin, I can definitely say this team is not on the level of the pre-2019 squads. The Knights didn't have that rarefied air about them tonight, and the Maroons made them look very vulnerable. Is Calvin a top 5 team? Nope. But NCAA postseason is a whole other animal, and they know how to win on that stage.

[Gregory Sager]

I'm getting the impression that Calvin does not have one of their signature teams this year (which doesn't mean they won't be a Final 4 threat and very tough to knock out when the time comes). 

I would agree with that. I've seen Calvin twice, not counting about five minutes of watching the Knights pull the wings off of a fly against Finlandia before I switched to another game in disgust. Both of those occasions (Aurora and Carthage) were when the Knights were home at Zuidema, and I was not at all impressed by them. That surprised me, because they returned a ton of good players from 2019. But Ryan Souders always seems to round his team into something dangerous by the time November rolls around, so I wouldn't write them off yet.

Meanwhile, North Park absolutely buried Carthage this evening, 4-0. The Firebirds didn't even get off a shot in the first half, and ended the game with only three, with the lone SOG coming from an extreme angle 20 yards out on a Sunday hop. Carthage had zero good looks in the forward third, largely because they rarely even got there; I'm pretty sure possession time tonight was at least 70/30 in favor of NPU. This was a glimpse of the Vikings team that I've been waiting to see all season.

[PaulNewman]

Inside the Paul Newman Top 20 Voting War Room....

PN's Top 10

1)   WASHINGTON & LEE
2)   MESSIAH
3)   TUFTS
4)   AMHERST
5)   OWU
6)   MIDDLEBURY
7)   TRINITY (TX)
8)   NYU
9)   CALVIN
10)   EMORY


-- The 3 I did NOT vote for that make the "official" poll are N. Central, F&M, and Carthage (all close, especially the first two, but was actually closer to voting for Wheaton (ILL) than N. Central or Carthage...those as well as F&M for me fell in the category of need more data).

-- The 3 I DID vote for that did not make it are Hope (in 10 minutes ago but now out lol), St Olaf (Travis Wall haha), and Pacific Lutheran (in my final spot and maybe a bit of a flyer but they have destroyed last 4 or so opponents who I don't think were all cupcakes).

-- I did NOT vote for Kenyon...haven't earned it and need more data and 3 game stretch @Denison, OWU, and @ Wabash will be telling.

-- Strongly considered JCU and North Park (and view both as top 20 teams big picture).  And of course JCU went out last night and lost at HOME to PS-B (but did have overwhelming stats edge which can happen).

-- Kind of developing my own rules and criteria as I go, but would call my approach a combo or mix of who I truly think the best teams are AND actual results to date.

Putting this post here so as not to mess with the actual poll thread.

Addendum:  Same rationale for NOT including Chicago as JCU and NP...definitely one of best 20 but have to earn it back and certainly last night will help Maroons get back on track.

Addendum #2...The PN War Room is at an abandoned service station with a faded ESSO sign, down a set of stairs in one of the garage stalls, down a hall, through a room, and then into another room with a huge white board and a single lightbulb dangling from a cord.  My happy place.  When you show up, walk up to the two old codgers on the stoop of the station smoking Winstons and give them the password....which is MAJUMDER...if they demand a second one say NUTMEG.