2021 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[d4_Pace]

Thats certainly a fair point. But Tufts has played a top St Joes team and barely beat a solid WPI last time out in second round games. I think in general those teams are a little stronger. But overall you're right.

[d4_Pace]

Another very valid point. We definitely lucked into hosting that year.

[PaulNewman]

Another very valid point. We definitely lucked into hosting that year.

I really should blame Haverford for a stunning loss to UMass-Boston, AT Haverford, with UMass going for a long stretch in regulation and both OTs with 9 (or was it 8) men before ending their season with PKs.  The sectional almost certainly would have gone to Haverford who would have been a bigger challenge to Tufts.....but alas, that didn't happen.

[Gregory Sager]

So W&L retains their top spot in the national polls and may do so for the rest of the season since i suspect they should be favored in most contest moving forward. I do think are argument can be made that the winner of Tufts-Amherst in two weeks will have a strong claim if they can both take care of business this week.

I have to say I really don't believe Trinity is the second best team in the country. My opinion on their program is largely influenced by when they came to play at Tufts and were blown out by Kenyon 4-0 in the sweet 16 despite being ranked #1 in the country at the time. Ever since then I have been suspicious of their gaudy win loss records.

The 2018 season comes to mind for me. UChicago went down to Texas in the first week of the season and should have won, but couldn't hold a two-goal lead and settled for a 3-3 tie (the game had 9 total cards handed out and it definitely got contentious).

I watched that game! It was about 120 degrees on the field. The PBP guy couldn't stop complaining about the heat, which I gotta figure for San Antonio meant that it must've been like playing inside a blast oven. Just watching that game on the Internet made me sweat. I thought that the poor guys from Chicago were going to melt into little maroon puddles on the pitch. No wonder they got chippy (and they were the chippier team). I was amazed that they hung on enough to salvage a tie.

[blue_jays]

So W&L retains their top spot in the national polls and may do so for the rest of the season since i suspect they should be favored in most contest moving forward. I do think are argument can be made that the winner of Tufts-Amherst in two weeks will have a strong claim if they can both take care of business this week.

I have to say I really don't believe Trinity is the second best team in the country. My opinion on their program is largely influenced by when they came to play at Tufts and were blown out by Kenyon 4-0 in the sweet 16 despite being ranked #1 in the country at the time. Ever since then I have been suspicious of their gaudy win loss records.

The 2018 season comes to mind for me. UChicago went down to Texas in the first week of the season and should have won, but couldn't hold a two-goal lead and settled for a 3-3 tie (the game had 9 total cards handed out and it definitely got contentious).

I watched that game! It was about 120 degrees on the field. The PBP guy couldn't stop complaining about the heat, which I gotta figure for San Antonio meant that it must've been like playing inside a blast oven. Just watching that game on the Internet made me sweat. I thought that the poor guys from Chicago were going to melt into little maroon puddles on the pitch. No wonder they got chippy (and they were the chippier team). I was amazed that they hung on enough to salvage a tie.

Then when they played again on Nov. 17 in Chicago, it was rainy and temps in the 30s, much more of what UChicago is used to, lol. Only 4 cards in the rematch. Looking back at the box score, UChicago outshot TUT 13-0 in the second half.
The 120 degrees reminds me of when UChicago football went down to Millsaps in Sept. 2015 and the turf was so hot that Jackson Garrey's cleats melted.

[D3_Slack]

With so many games being available via stream I have watched (literally) almost every top team.  I've also caught a bunch of teams at the top of their conference tables to get a sense for what each of the leagues are like.  Watching so much D3 soccer has been really interesting and fun.  That said, here's what I've seen thus far.  There is a ton of parity across the country.  I don't see it as the top x number of teams have separated themselves.  In fact, I think the championship is completely wide open.  I just haven't seen a team that has it all yet.  Looking back at those Tufts teams that won under Shapiro they were amazing offensively and defensively with great GK play.  I just haven't seen that complete team yet.  Not from Tufts, Amherst, NYU, W&L, Messiah, etc.  A team to keep an eye on - Emory.  Their level of play over the course of the season has improved significantly...but they need to go through a very tough UAA slate.  We'll see.  Bottom line.  This thing is wide open.

[jknezek]

Mostly agree with your sentiments.  I'm trying to recall how W&L jumped Tufts (and maybe Messiah?), including in my own fan poll.  Maybe because W&L had their one blemish right out of the gate, and maybe because the draw with Emory was with a more highly rated opponent than Tufts' draw with Colby which also occurred later.  All of the top few teams had some close calls but Tufts seemed perilously close to another blemish or two with very late 2OT GWs.  That's not to say W&L wouldn't have been challenged in a game in Waterville.  It's also true that while W&L has had what I would term a nicely competitive schedule, it hasn't been as brutal as some have faced and the Generals certainly as you suggested are not facing a NESCAC-type schedule the rest of the way.  All that said, and perhaps this is wrong, but I don't necessarily think whoever is ranked #1 at any given time is the best team....sort of like the best player in the NBA doesn't necessarily win MVP.  I will probably keep W&L at #1 until they get another blemish barring something unforeseen, but that doesn't mean I think they are the best out of the top 4.  I do think the top 4 have separated themselves in my mind but in terms of best team or odds to win the title I'd probably put W&L 4th (with Tufts, Messiah, and Amherst in some order above them).

This is just one of those things that polls don't tend to do very well. I love my Generals. Proud alumni. But do I think they are the best team in the country? I have my doubts. Do I think they are a very good team with a solid chance of winning the tournament? Absolutely. But I think there are other teams that have consistently vaulted that hump the Generals have yet to get over. And that experience matters. Maybe not as much this year, given the cluster that was last year, but teams that know they can get to the Final Four because they already have... well, that is a psychological advantage come tournament time.

Fortunately we will get the tournament to shake all this out. Maybe this will be the Generals' year. I certainly hope so. But best in the country? Well... they've kept on winning while playing a decent schedule. Roanoke is yet to come, and the ODAC tournament is never easy. So challenges still lie ahead. Just not the same challenges a NESCAC or UAA team will face.

[PaulNewman]

With so many games being available via stream I have watched (literally) almost every top team.  I've also caught a bunch of teams at the top of their conference tables to get a sense for what each of the leagues are like.  Watching so much D3 soccer has been really interesting and fun.  That said, here's what I've seen thus far.  There is a ton of parity across the country.  I don't see it as the top x number of teams have separated themselves.  In fact, I think the championship is completely wide open.  I just haven't seen a team that has it all yet.  Looking back at those Tufts teams that won under Shapiro they were amazing offensively and defensively with great GK play.  I just haven't seen that complete team yet.  Not from Tufts, Amherst, NYU, W&L, Messiah, etc.  A team to keep an eye on - Emory.  Their level of play over the course of the season has improved significantly...but they need to go through a very tough UAA slate.  We'll see.  Bottom line.  This thing is wide open.

You could be right.

I'd make a distinction between any team within the top 40 might beat another team on the day, like no shock if any UAA team beats another UAA team regardless of record and pretty much same with NESCAC, BUT, in terms of a title....I can't recall a true surprise winner in my recent memory with the possible exception of the 1st Tufts title which in some ways seemed to come out of nowhere even though that was a super-talented team.  I mean, since 2010...Messiah, OWU, Messiah, Tufts, Amherst, Tufts, Messiah, Tufts, Tufts.  There has been an occasional surprise to make the Final 4 but not winning it.

I know what you mean about previous Tufts teams, but it's easy to forget that at least a couple of those Tufts national title winners had a handful of losses and draws going into the tournament, including a couple of quarterfinal NESCAC tourney losses.  A loss for Tufts these days, along with Messiah and Amherst, has become a rare event.  Bottom line...there may be a little more separation than you think.  We'll see.  And I agree about Emory.

RPI after grabbing some attention finally drew last night with Western New England who probably is decent, but still, not a great result.  Engineers gave up a 90th minute goal to WNE.  I see Vassar is lurking and curious if anyone has an insight on the Brewers.

Wesleyan got a big 1-0 win over Coast Guard.  I could be wrong or maybe just finally accepting how strong the NESCAC is top to bottom, but NESCAC seems stronger with more parity than even with Tufts and Amherst still favorites and the emergent Conn Coll.

MIT is another team I'm watching.  They gave Tufts a go and get Brandeis tonight.

Other key games tonight are Otterbein at Marietta, Mt Union at JCU, Lynchburg at Roanoke, C-M-S at Pomona-Pitzer, Carthage at Chicago, and of course North Park at Wheaton.

[d4_Pace]

I often wonder about the psychological side talked about here. I personally remember the first run feeling like no one expects anything and we have nothing to lose. We played so loose and care free. I think in subsequent years after having won I felt a little bit more pressure but that also may speak to more to the difference in mentality between freshmen and senior years in general.

[d4_Pace]

My breakdown on this has always been that there are 20-25 teams that can win a national championship if everything goes right. I think the first Tufts teams fell more into that bracket where we avoided most major injuries and got some bounces here and there. Then there are 4-5 teams who can weather a whole bunch of adversity and still pull it off. Obviously, things usually don't all come together, so those teams that are talented enough to not have it all go to plan and still win are much more likely to do so.

[PaulNewman]

I often wonder about the psychological side talked about here. I personally remember the first run feeling like no one expects anything and we have nothing to lose. We played so loose and care free. I think in subsequent years after having won I felt a little bit more pressure but that also may speak to more to the difference in mentality between freshmen and senior years in general.

Very much agree.  That first one imo was as talented or more so than the next three, but it did seem a surprise at the time.  And you may have felt more pressure later but now there is almost a sense of inevitability with Tufts, Messiah, Amherst that I think works very much in your favor.  I have no doubt that the psychology of it all is HUGE, both internally for those programs and externally with opponents.

[PaulNewman]

And it's the psychological advantage that W&L doesn't have....and that's why you have to break through and then all that changes.

[jknezek]

And it's the psychological advantage that W&L doesn't have....and that's why you have to break through and then all that changes.

Which is what I was getting at. And I think being #1 in the polls carries it's own weight for a team not used to it. To carry that weight much of the season, possibly into the tournament, without that experience... it's a psychological challenge. Is it a deal breaker? Of course not. But it can be an issue.

I'm fascinated to see how W&L does. So far they have carried it extremely well. But, looking at their schedule, they hit a string of games that they should win comfortably between now and Roanoke on 10/20. At Ferrum (2-6), at H-SC (4-3-1), home for Shenandoah (6-5), at EMU (0-10), obviously H-SC and Shenandoah aren't bad teams, but for a top 10 let alone #1 team in the country... they shouldn't be the hardest challenge. And this type of run is where it can be a challenge to maintain intensity.

Coach Singleton is excellent and I have great faith in him and what he has done with the program, so I have faith that he knows a way to keep heads on straight and focused. I'm super excited about, and especially FOR, these players. I'm hoping this is their breakthrough season. All that said... I'm so curious as well. That "next level", in this case the last level, is a huge step to make.

[PaulNewman]

With so many games being available via stream I have watched (literally) almost every top team.  I've also caught a bunch of teams at the top of their conference tables to get a sense for what each of the leagues are like.  Watching so much D3 soccer has been really interesting and fun.  That said, here's what I've seen thus far.  There is a ton of parity across the country.  I don't see it as the top x number of teams have separated themselves.  In fact, I think the championship is completely wide open.  I just haven't seen a team that has it all yet.  Looking back at those Tufts teams that won under Shapiro they were amazing offensively and defensively with great GK play.  I just haven't seen that complete team yet.  Not from Tufts, Amherst, NYU, W&L, Messiah, etc.  A team to keep an eye on - Emory.  Their level of play over the course of the season has improved significantly...but they need to go through a very tough UAA slate.  We'll see.  Bottom line.  This thing is wide open.

The psychology of the perception of inevitability really is fascinating...and what portion of that is anticipation of an event and what portion is a mirage that grows in hindsight after the event.

I just did a little research and was stunned to find that in the final D3soccer poll (speaking of polls and poll psychology) before the 2016 tournament Tufts not only wasn't ranked but wasn't even in the RV category.  They had been in RV the week before in Week 9 and at #16 in Week 8.

Tufts entered the 2016 tournament with a not so intimidating 10-5-2 record after I believe a quarterfinal NESCAC loss and sweating out even getting a bid.  They didn't host a pod and in fact were on the road at Rowan who was significantly favored with a record of 17-2-1 and a D3soccer ranking at #8.  Chicago was #1, followed by Messiah, Amherst and Trinity.  Kenyon was #5.  UMass-B was #10 and Haverford was #15.  So in just Tufts' 2016 quadrant there were at least five teams ranked above them [changed from five to four and back to five upon seeing Springfield at #18 who Tufts beat 1st round] and yet I'm sure Rowan wasn't thrilled that they likely would be getting Tufts in the 2nd round.  Tufts eked out a 1-0 win, a series of unlikely events led to them hosting and playing a UMass-B team that was missing 2-3 of their best players (including their huge, talented striker) on red cards from the Haverford debacle and then an Elite 8 game with Kenyon to redeem a narrow, last minute loss to Kenyon the prior year.  I was at that game and I can vouch that the Tufts crowd definitely provided a boost for the Jumbos.  A minute before Majumder ended it in the 109th minute, I watched Kenyon's Brice Koval (whose brother played at Conn Coll) the minute before that miss wide right by a foot or two from about 5-6 yards out.  But once Tufts reached the Final 4 the conclusion seemed pretty inevitable and in hindsight one can fall into thinking that it was Tufts' to lose all along.

That 2016 Week 10 poll is linked below.  Again, Tufts wasn't even in RV.  Some of the names in RV at the time?  How about PS-Behrend, Oberlin, Hanover, Geneva, Morrisville St.

https://d3soccer.com/top25/men/2016/week10

[PaulNewman]

And it's the psychological advantage that W&L doesn't have....and that's why you have to break through and then all that changes.

Which is what I was getting at. And I think being #1 in the polls carries it's own weight for a team not used to it. To carry that weight much of the season, possibly into the tournament, without that experience... it's a psychological challenge. Is it a deal breaker? Of course not. But it can be an issue.

I'm fascinated to see how W&L does. So far they have carried it extremely well. But, looking at their schedule, they hit a string of games that they should win comfortably between now and Roanoke on 10/20. At Ferrum (2-6), at H-SC (4-3-1), home for Shenandoah (6-5), at EMU (0-10), obviously H-SC and Shenandoah aren't bad teams, but for a top 10 let alone #1 team in the country... they shouldn't be the hardest challenge. And this type of run is where it can be a challenge to maintain intensity.

Coach Singleton is excellent and I have great faith in him and what he has done with the program, so I have faith that he knows a way to keep heads on straight and focused. I'm super excited about, and especially FOR, these players. I'm hoping this is their breakthrough season. All that said... I'm so curious as well. That "next level", in this case the last level, is a huge step to make.

Totally agree and get it.  Kenyon was ranked #2 most of 2014 and #1 for at least 4-5 weeks in 2015.

I'm confident about Singleton as well.