2021 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[deiscanton]

What's the story in the Flour/Flower City?

Thunderstorms and lightning.

[PaulNewman]

PN's key games of the day...

Amherst-Tufts

GAC-St Olaf

North Central-North Park

Swat-F&M

New Paltz St-Buffalo St

Kenyon-Wabash

MIT-Wheaton (MA)

Conn Coll-Bowdoin

Midd-Colby

[midwest]

Kenyon at Wabash is 1-1 at end of regular time. I have the game up in the background as I get some paperwork done so not paying close attention but generally seems like pretty relentless Kenyon attack in the second half. A lot of Wabash fouls in Kenyon's attacking third, allowing some potential dangerous free kicks, but Kenyon didn't convert in regular time. 

[midwest]

And . . . . Kenyon scores in 2nd extra period, winning 2-1.

[PaulNewman]

What.A.Day!  And it's not over.

Didn't see any games yet today via video because of driving to Tufts and then watching the mega-event of the day deep into 2 OTs.  Will circle back to that one, but first what has caught my eye so far, slanted towards rankings shake-ups, conference races, positioning for regional rankings in a week or two.

Driving through Boston trying to watch live stats with your team down 1-0 when you check in, followed by 40+ minutes at 1-1 into 2 OTs is not recommended.  But Kenyon pulled out the win on the road at a gritty Wabash 2-1. completing the gauntlet of at rival Denison, rival OWU, and then away at Wabash unscathed and 3-0.  The Lords can't relax and need to keep getting better but they are in good shape for home field for the NCAC tourney as they could absorb a loss and still prevail in 1st for the regular season given the H2H advantage over OWU.

Staying in the NCAC, Bianco is determined to keep pushing Denison to improvement and a winning attitude as the Big Red go on the road and earn a strong 3-0 win at DePauw.

Yes, the curse of PN strikes again.  New Paltz survived yesterday but not today as surging Buffalo St fresh off a weather-aided draw versus Oneonta grounds the Hawks, 3-1.

St Olaf continues to impress in defiance of pollster hesitancy, getting a huge win against GAC, a squad clamoring for more recognition itself.  4-2.

Hopkins surely wasn't happy dropping an odd neutral site, no video match with heavyweight, Christopher Newport, but following up with a 1-0 loss to Ursinus is not what the doctor ordered, even if this is the Bears' best season since the Civil War.

The best teams always seem to escape.  Messiah comes from behind to nip Eastern in double OT, 3-2.

Nearby, Swat and F&M battle to a 2-2 draw.  F&M battled back from a 2-0 deficit to level, but will be disappointed given a major stats advantage.

MIT engineers another excellent win, 3-1, at Wheaton (MA), and is the clear leader in the NEWMAC with increased national approval no doubt on the way.

C-M-S stays positive with a 2-0 victory over Whittier while fading Pac Lutheran drops another one, this time to Willamette 3-2.

Can KZoo challenge Calvin?  Probably not but the Hornets are putting together a nice and blow out a Trine squad that has had some goods results.  5-1.

In the LL, RIT can't manage to pull off the road trip double, falling to Skidmore 2-1, one day after besting RPI.  Vassar stays quietly strong, adding misery to SLU Nation , 2-0.

OK, as late results trickle in with some drama unfolding in the OAC, let's deal with the almighty NESCAC.

Middlebury finds the trek to Waterville unsatisfying, dropping a 2-1 contest to Colby in a huge win for the Mules.  Conn College after seeming to be firing on all cylinders falls 3-1 at Bowdoin.  And Wesleyan continues with their resurgent campaign, avoiding Sonny Liston's fate, and leaving Lewiston with a 3-1 tally over slumping Bates.

I'll share my impressions of the headliner in a separate post.

[PaulNewman]

Okie, dokie.  Amherst vs Tufts.

First...I didn't engage alums or fans from either.  Great atmosphere.  Both programs had their bro contingents, with Tufts having a larger one as would be expected, but both vocal and loud.

A highly competitive, entertaining match between two heavyweights.  That said, the game was not attractive...at all, except for the Cano goal and another near-goal or two by Tufts also sparked by Cano who has to be the man of the match.  The Amherst goal was a nice, decisive strike into the side netting where the Tufts GK had no chance, but I the chance came off a scrum in the box and was scored I believe by #7, one of the Amherst CBs.

Probably 80% of the unattractiveness was conditions-related.  The wind was just windy enough to impact almost all of the play but not quite enough to game-plan around in advance.  The other 20%, and I don't mean any disrespect at all, but these just aren't pretty teams....EITHER ONE OF THEM.  If anything, I thought Amherst tried to play more, or at least danced with the ball more, and numerous times the Amherst offensive players tried to do too much and either ended up not getting off a shot OR getting the ball to GG.  In general both teams really struggled with a getting a hold of the ball and maintaining possession, but as I think about it Tufts when they did get control did a better job of not holding too long and making quicker passes and having overall the better chances, mainly on 2-3 counters where Amherst looked unbalanced and Cano put them into a 2v1 defensive crisis.  Van Brewer handled the ball some in midfield, but mostly in a very functional way.  His play in the midfield was important and especially his lefty in-swinging corners and the close in set piece where he ended the contest on Aroh's head.  That final play was reminiscent to me of a 4th and 1 on the goal line, and a straight handout to the fullback with a double tight end set to push through to the goal.  There was no way Aroh wasn't getting ball over that line.  I thought a draw would have been a fair result, but soccer c an be brutal, especially with sudden death OTs.  Tufts overall may have had more clean chances, especially in the second via Cano, and #3 I'm sure will dream about the chance he probably should have finished, but Amherst had chances too and nearly scored on what looked like was almost a Tufts GK own goal.  I thought Amherst had the better of the play in the 1st half while Tufts turned the tables in the 2nd.  Amherst did have a couple of spells of leveling the game back out again, and had Tufts under pressure a couple of times in the OTs.

So, the NPOY candidates.  The game was 23 minutes in and I thought to myself "how come GG isn't playing?"  I then realized he was out there and I had not noticed him even once (although I saw in the stats PbP that he logged a shot in the first 10 minutes).  I'm not tactically smart enough to know if Tufts did anything special but GG went for long stretches of having no impact.  He seemed to try and get more involved as the game progressed and as the game got deeper into the 2nd half he both had a couple of half-chances and seemed to become more frustrated with a couple of teammates who were not getting him the ball.  #10 and #23 had some nice moments and created some danger but too often they didn't pull the trigger themselves and did not get the ball to GG and usually lost the ball in the end.  Both of those guys are good players and I thought #10 was very good.  #23 has obvious talent, but either tries to do too much or disappears.  I'm sort of surprised that he played so many minutes because (and this is just my impression as a layman) for long stretches I didn't think he really competed.  GG has a quality to his game and touches, even in bad conditions, but I had to really pay attention.  He did not have nearly the impact I expected.  Wonder if they need Nate from Ted Lasso on the staff because it seems that if he is getting so little service they maybe need to invert him and #10 or #23 and allow him to set the table for them or himself.  Now Aroh.  He got the GW.  Enough said, right?  I thought he also was mostly invisible, although because of his size there is no way not to notice him.  Again, maybe the conditions.  But he did not control this game.  I've seen him control games on video, so I don't know.  Maybe Amherst's game plan had something to do with it.  Before I forget, #8 for Tufts was very good, and I thought Amherst #3 (who got knocked around a ton) played his heart out.  Johnson (#5) didn't have his usual impact with the long throws, and I don't know if that was wind-related or not enough room on the sidelines or what.  The Amherst GK, I guess their backup for the most part was fine and is very athletic, BUT, I don't know what he was doing on the Cano goal as he got caught way, way out and realized too late a streaking 2v1 was coming.  He tried to get back, and Cano probably would have scored anyway.

Now the mildly spicy stuff.  I thought Tufts looked more like Amherst supposedly always looks than Amherst did.  Part of that is just raw size and a high level of athleticism.  Tufts is MUCH bigger than Amherst.  That's obviously Tufts, but I don't recall seeing a Amherst team that wasn't bigger.  Where are the Caracas twins when you need them?  Or a Dane Lind.  At any rate, Tufts has a clear physical advantage, and if they have that over any Amherst team then any other team in D3 is going to find the Jumbos difficult to contend with.  There must be a rule at Tufts that if you don't get stuck in then you aren't playing.  I thought that was Amherst.  FOULS....Tufts 21, Amherst 10.  Otherwise the stats basically even.  And finally, not that the Mammoths were choir boys, but the Jumbos complained and whined A LOT...like seemingly after every call.

But they're like the Patriots.  Not the current version of the Patriots...but the one that a lot of folks found tough to root for.  Repeated winning brings envy...just the way it is.

And I'll say yet again, it will take a massive effort from a very good, talented team that can approximate matching Tufts physically to knock them out again this year.

[Gregory Sager]

North Park got a golden goal 75 seconds into overtime to knock North Central from the ranks of the unbeatens, 2-1.

[PaulNewman]

Submitted my fan poll votes already.

Maybe a mirage but the distance between the top 3 and the rest of the field seems massive.

Trinity just by default has to slot in at #4 but at least that feels right.

And then....no one deserved to be in the #5 spot or even #5-#9 or so imo.  A lot of big moves OUT and IN.

[Ejay]

With the creation of 10 regions this year, how is the tournament structured?

[jknezek]

With the creation of 10 regions this year, how is the tournament structured?

I suspect it will involve as little travel as they can possibly get away with. Dollars spent are going to be at a minimum for a while, and maybe even more so with the new NCAA Constitution coming up. I don't think the switch to 10 regions will be all that significant. It's not like the bracket was regionally constrained in the past. Just look for a few more odd placements to make it as inexpensive as possible.

[Ron Boerger]

With the creation of 10 regions this year, how is the tournament structured?

The pre-championship manual can answer a lot of questions like these 

Three sets of regional rankings come out weekly, starting this Wednesday.   Teams to be ranked per region: 

Region I - 9
Region II - 7
Region III - 8
Region IV - 7
Region V - 9
Region VI - 10
Region VII - 10
Region VIII - 9
Region IX - 9
Region X - 7

There are a total of 64 teams selected; 43 spots to conference winners, 21 to other teams ("Pool C" bids)

For each of the 21 selection rounds, you take the top non-conference winning team from each region, evaluate using the criteria in the manual (p.22-23), and select the top team from those ten.  The next team in that region is promoted "to the table" to be evaluated against the other nine in succeeding rounds, rinse and repeat until all 21 have been selected.  If you don't make the final regional ranking it's pretty much a given you won't be selected.

First and second round games are held the weekend of Nov 12-14, generally at the "best" program in a local area, but travel costs factor in.  There will be eight four-team sectionals, Nov 19-21, not ten, and again the host is a combination of "best" and "most cost-effective to the NCAA".   Also, if a school qualifies to host both men's and women's competition on a particular weekend, only one can be held (1st/2nd round, women have priority, sectionals, men do in an odd year).   Semis (Dec 3) and final (Dec. 4) will be in Greensboro, NC. 

[Flying Weasel]

I can't see how the move from 8 to 10 regions as part of the regional re-alignment will make any difference to the tournament structure.  You have to go back, what? over two decades to the time before the expanded bracket and automatic-qualifiers to find equal representation from each region and quadrants that directly corresponded to the regional alignments. But since that time, 1st/2nd Round pods can and often have had teams from 2 or 3 regions--less so west of the Mississippi, more so in the mid-atlantic where there's probably been instances of 4 regions being represented in a pod. Given the at-large selection process and bracket-building flexibility that committee has, the impact of the regional re-alignment should be zero on the tournament structure and minimal on the at-large selections.

[jknezek]

W&L hosts Roanoke tomorrow night. Roanoke has had an atypical rough patch, with only 2 wins in the last month, but I suspect they will give the Generals their best shot. Then the Generals host R-MC over the weekend before ending the regular season at Va Wesleyan.

Interestingly in the ODAC right now there are 4 teams without a conference loss. W&L (6-0), Randolph (4-0-2), R-MC (3-0-3) and Va Wes (3-0-3). W&L sits top of the table, Randolph sits 3rd behind Lynchburg (5-1), and then R-MC and Va Wes in 4th. Because of the ODAC's unbalanced schedule ridiculousness, Randolph will not face W&L in the regular season. They do have Lynchburg at home, Roanoke, and Ferrum (1-5), still to face on the road. Lynchburg doesn't face R-MC or Va Wes this regular season.

Regardless, W&L will close out the season with the current 6th place ODAC team, Roanoke, and then the current T-4 teams. Randolph gets the current 2nd, 5th, and T-10 teams.

It will be interesting to see what the committee makes of Randolph. Their schedule leaves a lot to be desired. I'd say their best win right now is Averett, and their best results might be the pair of ties with R-MC and Va Wes. So the game against Lynchburg is huge.

[PaulNewman]

W&L hosts Roanoke tomorrow night. Roanoke has had an atypical rough patch, with only 2 wins in the last month, but I suspect they will give the Generals their best shot. Then the Generals host R-MC over the weekend before ending the regular season at Va Wesleyan.

Interestingly in the ODAC right now there are 4 teams without a conference loss. W&L (6-0), Randolph (4-0-2), R-MC (3-0-3) and Va Wes (3-0-3). W&L sits top of the table, Randolph sits 3rd behind Lynchburg (5-1), and then R-MC and Va Wes in 4th. Because of the ODAC's unbalanced schedule ridiculousness, Randolph will not face W&L in the regular season. They do have Lynchburg at home, Roanoke, and Ferrum (1-5), still to face on the road. Lynchburg doesn't face R-MC or Va Wes this regular season.

Regardless, W&L will close out the season with the current 6th place ODAC team, Roanoke, and then the current T-4 teams. Randolph gets the current 2nd, 5th, and T-10 teams.

It will be interesting to see what the committee makes of Randolph. Their schedule leaves a lot to be desired. I'd say their best win right now is Averett, and their best results might be the pair of ties with R-MC and Va Wes. So the game against Lynchburg is huge.

The short answer is that the WildCats will not make the tournament without winning the ODAC tournament. 

In 2013 Randolph was 13-0-1 before lost to Lynchburg and went into ODAC title match with VA Wes 17-1-1.  Lost to VA Wes in that game 2-1 in OT.  So ended season 17-2-1.  Did not get a at-large bid even though some teams like Catholic and Misericordia (sp?) did.

Only NCAA appearance was in 2011 when won ODAC tournament and first two NCAA games before bowing out in Sweet 16 to TX-Tyler.

The Randolph SoS is likely to be quite low and I don't see any likely ranked wins.  Not even clear that Lynchburg will be regionally ranked.  Perhaps the re-alignment will help with 10 slots for Region VI, which seems like a plus for ODAC and other teams in South (except for UWW!) since before iirc ODAC teams were competing with South Atlantic powerhouses which typically have had SoS and RvR advantages.

2013 Pool C Berths:
Brandeis
Carnegie Mellon
Catholic
Dickinson
Gordon
Gustavus Adolphus
Kenyon
Luther
MIT
Messiah
Misericordia
Montclair State
Oberlin
Roger Williams
Rutgers-Newark
Salisbury
Wartburg
Williams

[Ron Boerger]

Christian Shirk just published this primer on NCAA regional rankings and the selection process:  https://d3soccer.com/columns/christan-shirk/2021/the-rankings-that-matter