2021 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[jknezek]

I think W&L, Tufts, and Messiah are still the heavy faves to win the whole thing, although I'm a little less confident about Messiah given the loss of their best player.

After that I would say legit contenders in no particular order are Trinity, Conn Coll, Calvin, Kenyon, OWU, Chicago, Wash U, Emory, North Park, Montclair, and maybe St Olaf, Amherst, NYU, and JCU.  My sleeper picks might be Midd and North Central. I could be missing one or two but otherwise any other teams getting to the Final Four I would consider a significant surprise.

On even money I would take the field this year vs a grouping of W&L, Tufts, Messiah and Amherst.

And for my Generals sake... I dearly hope I'm wrong.

[PaulNewman]

I think W&L, Tufts, and Messiah are still the heavy faves to win the whole thing, although I'm a little less confident about Messiah given the loss of their best player.

After that I would say legit contenders in no particular order are Trinity, Conn Coll, Calvin, Kenyon, OWU, Chicago, Wash U, Emory, North Park, Montclair, and maybe St Olaf, Amherst, NYU, and JCU.  My sleeper picks might be Midd and North Central. I could be missing one or two but otherwise any other teams getting to the Final Four I would consider a significant surprise.

On even money I would take the field this year vs a grouping of W&L, Tufts, Messiah and Amherst.

And for my Generals sake... I dearly hope I'm wrong.

You could be right, and I dearly hope you are.  I listed a bunch of very good, dangerous teams but as I go through that list none jump out as likely to get to the Final Four or win it all compared to W&L, Tufts, and Messiah.  I don't view Amherst as top 4 although they do have a player who could go on a tear and lead them to the Final Four and possibly a title.  As I go through the list I noted above beginning with Trinity and ending with JCU, not a single one of those teams stands out sharply compared to all the others listed.  F&M is another dangerous team but I can't see them breaking through beyond the Elite 8.

[PaulNewman]

I think W&L, Tufts, and Messiah are still the heavy faves to win the whole thing, although I'm a little less confident about Messiah given the loss of their best player.

After that I would say legit contenders in no particular order are Trinity, Conn Coll, Calvin, Kenyon, OWU, Chicago, Wash U, Emory, North Park, Montclair, and maybe St Olaf, Amherst, NYU, and JCU.  My sleeper picks might be Midd and North Central. I could be missing one or two but otherwise any other teams getting to the Final Four I would consider a significant surprise.

On even money I would take the field this year vs a grouping of W&L, Tufts, Messiah and Amherst.

And for my Generals sake... I dearly hope I'm wrong.

I'm bored.

So here's another way of looking at it.  Would you take the four you noted -- W&L, Tufts, Messiah, Amherst -- or Calvin, Kenyon, North Park, Conn Coll.....or Chicago, OWU, Midd, NYU....or Trinity, Montclair, Emory, Wash U?  Tbh, putting aside likelihood of those breakdowns matching quadrants (pretty unlikely in your example also), that does sound closer to me than I would have thought.

[Ejay]

I think W&L, Tufts, and Messiah are still the heavy faves to win the whole thing, although I'm a little less confident about Messiah given the loss of their best player.

After that I would say legit contenders in no particular order are Trinity, Conn Coll, Calvin, Kenyon, OWU, Chicago, Wash U, Emory, North Park, Montclair, and maybe St Olaf, Amherst, NYU, and JCU.  My sleeper picks might be Midd and North Central. I could be missing one or two but otherwise any other teams getting to the Final Four I would consider a significant surprise.

On even money I would take the field this year vs a grouping of W&L, Tufts, Messiah and Amherst.

And for my Generals sake... I dearly hope I'm wrong.

I'm bored.

So here's another way of looking at it.  Would you take the four you noted -- W&L, Tufts, Messiah, Amherst -- or Calvin, Kenyon, North Park, Conn Coll.....or Chicago, OWU, Midd, NYU....or Trinity, Montclair, Emory, Wash U?  Tbh, putting aside likelihood of those breakdowns matching quadrants (pretty unlikely in your example also), that does sound closer to me than I would have thought.

How about this? You get to spend $4,000 - who are you taking?

W&L   $1,000
Tufts   $1,000
Messiah   $1,000
Amherst   $1,000
Calvin   $500
Kenyon   $500
North Park   $500
Conn Coll   $500
Chicago   $500
OWU   $500
Middlebury   $500
NewYorkU   $500
Trinity   $500
Montclair   $500
Emory   $500
Wash   $500
The Field   $2000

[jknezek]

I think W&L, Tufts, and Messiah are still the heavy faves to win the whole thing, although I'm a little less confident about Messiah given the loss of their best player.

After that I would say legit contenders in no particular order are Trinity, Conn Coll, Calvin, Kenyon, OWU, Chicago, Wash U, Emory, North Park, Montclair, and maybe St Olaf, Amherst, NYU, and JCU.  My sleeper picks might be Midd and North Central. I could be missing one or two but otherwise any other teams getting to the Final Four I would consider a significant surprise.

On even money I would take the field this year vs a grouping of W&L, Tufts, Messiah and Amherst.

And for my Generals sake... I dearly hope I'm wrong.

I'm bored.

So here's another way of looking at it.  Would you take the four you noted -- W&L, Tufts, Messiah, Amherst -- or Calvin, Kenyon, North Park, Conn Coll.....or Chicago, OWU, Midd, NYU....or Trinity, Montclair, Emory, Wash U?  Tbh, putting aside likelihood of those breakdowns matching quadrants (pretty unlikely in your example also), that does sound closer to me than I would have thought.

How about this? You get to spend $4,000 - who are you taking?

W&L   $1,000
Tufts   $1,000
Messiah   $1,000
Amherst   $1,000
Calvin   $500
Kenyon   $500
North Park   $500
Conn Coll   $500
Chicago   $500
OWU   $500
Middlebury   $500
NewYorkU   $500
Trinity   $500
Montclair   $500
Emory   $500
Wash   $500
The Field   $2000

This I like!  The Field for 2K, Trinity, Conn College, Kenyon and Emory. That gives me 19 teams I think. Best value for my money.

[jknezek]

I think W&L, Tufts, and Messiah are still the heavy faves to win the whole thing, although I'm a little less confident about Messiah given the loss of their best player.

After that I would say legit contenders in no particular order are Trinity, Conn Coll, Calvin, Kenyon, OWU, Chicago, Wash U, Emory, North Park, Montclair, and maybe St Olaf, Amherst, NYU, and JCU.  My sleeper picks might be Midd and North Central. I could be missing one or two but otherwise any other teams getting to the Final Four I would consider a significant surprise.

On even money I would take the field this year vs a grouping of W&L, Tufts, Messiah and Amherst.

And for my Generals sake... I dearly hope I'm wrong.

I'm bored.

So here's another way of looking at it.  Would you take the four you noted -- W&L, Tufts, Messiah, Amherst -- or Calvin, Kenyon, North Park, Conn Coll.....or Chicago, OWU, Midd, NYU....or Trinity, Montclair, Emory, Wash U?  Tbh, putting aside likelihood of those breakdowns matching quadrants (pretty unlikely in your example also), that does sound closer to me than I would have thought.

At even money, I'd take the original foursome. The experience of Messiah, Tufts and Amherst is too great to pass up. But, if you gave me Calvin, Kenyon, Conn Coll, OWU, Trinity, and Emory I'd take that group of 6 over the original 4 at even money.

[deiscanton]

Going to golden goal extra time in Minnesota in an opening round game of the MIAC tournament  (#3 seed Gusties v #6 seed Johnnies)

Gusties ranked #2 in Region IX and the Johnnies ranked #7 in Region IX in the Week 2 regional rankings.

Game tied at 1-1 even though the Gusties outshot the Johnnies 20-3, and 9-1 in shots on target.  (Both goals were scored in the first half-- the Johnnies scored on a PK, and then the Gusties equalized it a few minutes later.)

This is the only Monday afternoon men's conference tournament game on what is a light day overall.  We have just 5 men's soccer conference tournament games today.

Update-- Johnnies score the golden goal in the 96th minute to advance to the MIAC semifinals-- Gustavus Adolphus is now a candidate for a Pool C bid.

Johnnies play St. Olaf (#1 seed) on Wednesday in one MIAC semifinal, while Carleton will play the Augsburg/MacAlester winner in the other semifinal.

This evening, we have the other MIAC opening round game (#5 seed MacAlester at #4 seed Augsburg), with the Empire 8, MAC-Commonwealth, and MAC-Freedom also having opening round games tonight.  All of the remaining opening round games tonight are #4 seed vs #5 seed matches, with the winners playing their respective top seeds in the semifinals.

[PaulNewman]

I think W&L, Tufts, and Messiah are still the heavy faves to win the whole thing, although I'm a little less confident about Messiah given the loss of their best player.

After that I would say legit contenders in no particular order are Trinity, Conn Coll, Calvin, Kenyon, OWU, Chicago, Wash U, Emory, North Park, Montclair, and maybe St Olaf, Amherst, NYU, and JCU.  My sleeper picks might be Midd and North Central. I could be missing one or two but otherwise any other teams getting to the Final Four I would consider a significant surprise.

On even money I would take the field this year vs a grouping of W&L, Tufts, Messiah and Amherst.

And for my Generals sake... I dearly hope I'm wrong.

I'm bored.

So here's another way of looking at it.  Would you take the four you noted -- W&L, Tufts, Messiah, Amherst -- or Calvin, Kenyon, North Park, Conn Coll.....or Chicago, OWU, Midd, NYU....or Trinity, Montclair, Emory, Wash U?  Tbh, putting aside likelihood of those breakdowns matching quadrants (pretty unlikely in your example also), that does sound closer to me than I would have thought.

How about this? You get to spend $4,000 - who are you taking?

W&L   $1,000
Tufts   $1,000
Messiah   $1,000
Amherst   $1,000
Calvin   $500
Kenyon   $500
North Park   $500
Conn Coll   $500
Chicago   $500
OWU   $500
Middlebury   $500
NewYorkU   $500
Trinity   $500
Montclair   $500
Emory   $500
Wash   $500
The Field   $2000

Tufts, OWU/Kenyon, Emory/Chicago, North Park/Calvin

It's hard because majority of Chicago, OWU, North Park Kenyon, JCU, Calvin/Hope, Emory/Wash U, and F&M or a Montclair or Hopkins could end up in same quad.

[PaulNewman]

Going to golden goal extra time in Minnesota in an opening round game of the MIAC tournament  (#3 seed Gusties v #6 seed Johnnies)

Gusties ranked #2 in Region IX and the Johnnies ranked #7 in Region IX in the Week 2 regional rankings.

Game tied at 1-1 even though the Gusties outshot the Johnnies 20-3, and 9-1 in shots on target.  (Both goals were scored in the first half-- the Johnnies scored on a PK, and then the Gusties equalized it a few minutes later.)

This is the only Monday afternoon men's conference tournament game on what is a light day overall.  We have just 5 men's soccer conference tournament games today.

Update-- Johnnies score the golden goal in the 96th minute to advance to the MIAC semifinals-- Gustavus Adolphus is now a candidate for a Pool C bid.

This evening, we have the other MIAC opening round game (#5 seed Augsburg at #4 seed MacAlester), with the Empire 8, MAC-Commonwealth, and MAC-Freedom also having opening round games tonight.

Pool C hopefuls should be pulling for St Olaf to win the MIAC because otherwise that could be two Pool Cs.

[PaulNewman]

Surprised by GAC loss but I shouldn't be because St John's can be tough.  GAC had been on a roll and was in my dangerous sleeper category with Dubuque and a few others.  The MIAC is an interesting conference and of course lost St. Thomas.  I'm not quite sure why Carleton and Macalester (and different conference but academic sibling Grinnell) aren't consistently more competitive nationally.

[PaulNewman]

A team that stays under the radar, including for me, and despite being top 15 pretty much the whole season is Otterbein.  For whatever reason I still favor JCU but that may be a big mistake.  Conn Coll is growing on me rapidly but still need to see the Camels get to at least the Elite 8 again.

[PaulNewman]

Tufts, W&L, and the Field might be financially prudent as well.

[deiscanton]

Men's conference tournament matches this evening--

Region IX-- Minnesota-- MacAlester wins the other MIAC opening round match at Augsburg, 3-2, with a second half goalfest where each team scored 2 goals a piece.   The MIAC reseeds so that the lowest remaining seed plays the highest remaining seed, so in Wednesday's semifinals, it is the Johnnies vs the Oles in one semifinal, and MacAlester will play at Carleton in the other semifinal.

Region IV-- Mac-Freedom-- Stevens 0, Wilkes 0 at halftime.   Winner goes to Arcadia.

Region V-- Mac-Commonwealth-- Stevenson 3, York (PA) 0 at halftime.  Winner goes to Messiah.

Region III-- Empire 8-- St. John Fisher 0, Alfred 0 at halftime.  Winner goes on to play Nazareth.

Update-- Stevens has just scored in the 52nd minute to take a 1-0 lead on Wilkes in the MAC-Freedom #4/#5 game.  Goal scored by Sean Masur with an assist by Bruno Andino.  It is Masur's 2nd goal of the season.

8:32 PM Eastern update-- Stevens now leading 2-0 on Wilkes.  Masur has a brace in the 61st minute.  Match is now in the 70th minute, and Wilkes is planning to change goalkeepers as soon as the next dead ball, according to the Stevens Ducks commentator.

8:36 PM Eastern-- Wilkes has just made the goalkeeper change.

8:41 PM Eastern-- Jon Valcarce has just scored his first goal of the season for the Ducks in the 78th minute, and Stevens will be moving on to play at Arcadia on Wednesday in the MAC-Freedom semifinals.  Stevens now up, 3-0.

8:44 PM Eastern-- Empire 8-- William Moore has just scored for the Saxons in the 72nd minute.  Alfred now up, 1-0, on St. John Fisher.  Winner goes on to play at Nazareth.

9:02 PM Eastern-- MAC-Commonwealth game has gone final.  Stevenson will play at Messiah on Wednesday.  MAC-Freedom game is also a final with Stevens advancing to play at Arcadia.  In the Empire 8, St. John Fisher has just scored an equalizer in the 85th minute to tie the game 1-1 with Alfred up in Pittsford, NY.  (Rochester metro area).  Ben Woolingham scoring for the Cardinals with his 3rd goal of the season.

9:08 PM Eastern-- Region III-- St. John Fisher and Alfred finish regulation tied at 1-1 and are headed to golden goal extra time in the Empire 8 #4 vs #5 match.  This is the only men's match of the evening where extra time is needed, and this is the final men's match of the day.

9:23 PM Eastern-- St. John Fisher gets the golden goal in the 98th minute to advance to the Empire 8 semifinals to play Nazareth.  The golden goal was scored by Ben Woolingham, who got a brace on the evening.

That is all for this light day of action.  It was nice to get at least one extra time game today.  The conference tournament action starts revving up again tomorrow.

[PaulNewman]

RE:  Guinn out at Union

Presuming this move was not entirely voluntarily seems consistent with decisions over the past 6-7 years at Colby, Bates, and Denison.

IMO this Union job is very similar to the Denison position that Bianco took over.  Perhaps the hill to climb is a little bit higher than the one Bianco inherited, but not by that much and very similar in terms of being peer institutions with significant prestige and yet also likely a little more leeway with admissions compared to the traditionally even more elite LACs, having money, valuing athletics, etc.  In short, there is no obvious reason why Denison, Union, or Trinity (CT) shouldn't have consistently strong soccer programs (unless there are factors which I know nothing about which of course is quite possible).

[deiscanton]

Commonwealth Coast Conference semifinal

Endicott 2, Gordon 1 in the 64th minute.

Endicott was up, 1-0, at halftime.  Endicott's first goal was scored in the 14th minute by Joe Mepham, assisted by Camden Ridgney

The second half has been a wild one so far.

In the 61st minute, Endicott's Charles Badji got a direct red card for denial of an obvious goal scoring opportunity just outside the penalty box.

On the ensuing free kick, Gordon's Chase Gwynn got the equalizer to tie the match 1-1.  The equalizer is Gwynn's 18th goal of the season.

In the 64th minute, now down a man for the rest of the game, Endicott's Austin Wickham scored the go-ahead goal for the Gulls to retake the lead at 2-1.  The assist is by Joe Mepham.

Endicott's Charles Badji now has a 1 game ban to serve as a result of the red card-- suspension to be served either on Saturday in the CCC Championship match if Endicott advances today, or the first regular season game next season if Gordon comes back and wins.

6:43 PM Eastern update-- Gordon's Chase Gwynn has just scored another equalizer in the 80th minute to tie the match at 2-2.  Gwynn now has a brace on the evening, and the goal is Gwynn's 19th of the season.  Assist by Jarvin Ramirez.

To review, Endicott now playing with 10 men since the 61st minute as a result of the red card given earlier in the half.

6:47 PM Eastern update-- Gordon now leading over Endicott, 3-2, on a goal from Dayton Crocker in the 83rd minute.  Assist by Michael Hahn.  It is Crocker's 1st goal of the season.

6:56 PM Eastern-- Final:  Gordon 3, Endicott 2.   Endicott's season is over, and the CCC AQ will be decided in Rhode Island on Saturday with the winner of Roger Williams vs Salve Regina hosting the title game.   

Charles Badji of Endicott will have to sit out the first regular season game next September as a result of getting a red card tonight.