2021 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

Wow.  Chapman played with 10 men since the 14th min and 9 men since the 53rd min.  Held on 1-0 until under a minute when CMS finally converted on beautiful header off a corner.

Going OT, but how can Chapman possibly last another 20 min?

[College Soccer Observer]

They gave up the equalizer in the final minute.  The two red cards they got were really stupid decisions by the Chapman players to go in on the tackles they went in on.

[Gregory Sager]

I'm really looking forward to next year and the poll. North Park has a purpose.

It's really hard to articulate. Some teams just impose their will. Wheaton is a fine team. They are not at the level of NP.

Small consolation for NPU, which was sloppy in the back in overtime and paid for it with an upset loss. While I think that Wheaton earned it, mostly because Wheaton GK Hasten Biddlecome was absolutely phenomenal tonight despite taking continuous fire throughout the last fifteen minutes of regulation, NPU put itself on the wrong foot. As a result the Vikings lost to a Wheaton team that they should've beaten handily, even though Wheaton started eight seniors tonight who played like their kits would have to be torn off of their backs.

[College Soccer Observer]

They gave up the equalizer in the final minute.  The two red cards they got were really stupid decisions by the Chapman players to go in on the tackles they went in on.

CMS wins it in 2nd OT on a goal with less than 2 minutes remaining.

[PaulNewman]

They gave up the equalizer in the final minute.  The two red cards they got were really stupid decisions by the Chapman players to go in on the tackles they went in on.

CMS wins it in 2nd OT on a goal with less than 2 minutes remaining.

Brutal for Chapman....went 55+ minutes with 9 men...more amazing than when UMass-Boston survived and won PKs vs Haverford.  Less than a minute to go for the win in regulation...then 17 more minutes and less than 3 to go when CMS scored again.

[Mr.Right]

There have been so many upsets that teams that looked safe at the start of the week better win this weekend. I think Wesleyan is now in real trouble. Midd also might need another result especially if Colby can Win the Nescac Championship for the 2nd time in 4 years.
Quick note to my East Region friends is that it looks like after years of getting into the NCAA's UR has been effectively blocked by SUNY New Paltz and SUNY Oneonta in the 3rd Rankings sheet. I swear that these committee's have been using blockers for years now. They know which teams will not come off the board with New Paltz and Oneonta not going to come off the board and since ahead of UR it will effectively "block" them.

[Ejay]

UR has barely won half their games. At 8-3-4, and a losing record in the conference, they don't deserve to advance IMO. Even if they beat Emory and are 9-3-4, I'm not taking them.

[deiscanton]

There have been so many upsets that teams that looked safe at the start of the week better win this weekend. I think Wesleyan is now in real trouble. Midd also might need another result especially if Colby can Win the Nescac Championship for the 2nd time in 4 years.
Quick note to my East Region friends is that it looks like after years of getting into the NCAA's UR has been effectively blocked by SUNY New Paltz and SUNY Oneonta in the 3rd Rankings sheet. I swear that these committee's have been using blockers for years now. They know which teams will not come off the board with New Paltz and Oneonta not going to come off the board and since ahead of UR it will effectively "block" them.

Rochester's result vs CWRU, which was a RvR for purposes for making the Week 3 regional rankings, is no longer an RvR since CWRU is not ranked in Region VI this week.   No big loss if UR doesn't get in-- just drawing with Brandeis over the past weekend doesn't really cut it for the Yellowjackets.  UR needed at least 1 or 2 wins vs Wash U, Chicago, or NYU.  Rochester's only 2 UAA wins have been vs unranked teams-- Rochester's only 2 ranked wins have been over non-conference teams in their evaluation region, and their tie over a ranked team is vs a non-conference team ranked in a currently low position in Region VII, so their resume is not really a completely strong Pool C resume.  Other teams in the region could get better DIII results vs Rochester's common DIII opponents as well.  If New Paltz and Oneonta performed better vs Rochester's common DIII opponents, they should be ranked higher.

[PaulNewman]

I need another word besides 'wow.'  We could have a million followers here and not a single ballot would have predicted the combo of results we got yesterday.

Let's re-group and assess the carnage.  Can't recall a year when the RRs inclusive of the 3rd week are potentially so volatile.

Automatic to near-automatic Pool Cs are already Amherst, Montclair, W&L, OWU, North Park, and Calvin.

Teams with decent to very high RRs likely on the bubble/in trouble....Wesleyan (#5 in Region 1), WPI (currently #1 in Region 2), Vassar (currently #2 in Region 3), Oneonta (currently #3 in Region 3), New Paltz (currently #4 in Region 3), Rochester (#5 in Region 3), Rutgers-Newark (#4 in Region 4), Swat (#5 in Region 5), Hope (#6 in Region 8), Gustavus Adolphus (#2 in Region 9), and maybe Bowdoin (#6 in Region 1).  Those RRs could jump quite a bit.  For example WPI and Vassar could go from #1 and #2 rankings to no bid, and Rochester especially with a win this weekend surely could jump Oneonta or New Paltz or both.

Then add 3 UAAs (besides Rochester), 2-3 from NESCAC especially if Colby stuns (Tufts/Conn/Midd), a couple from Centennial (F&M/Hopkins/Gettysburg, Wash Coll), maybe 1-2 from NEWMAC (other than WPI, between Babson, Coast Guard, MIT), CNU/Mary Wash loser, Kenyon/Denison loser, possibly Lynchburg, possibly C-M-S , and 1-2 from OAC (JCU, Otterbein, ONU).

Am I missing any other major candidates?

C-M-S barely, barely survived last night versus 9 man Chapman after being down 1-0 with less than a minute to play.  The Stags are undefeated in D3 play, but if they falter against Redlands this weekend (another good team that is in a probably must-win situation given their low RR), they could be in trouble.  Currently C-M-S sits at #3 behind Mary Hardin-Baylor.  If MHB wins their AQ then C-M-S is probably fine and I suppose could jump MHB in the event of a MHB loss, but otherwise C-M-S potentially could be blocked from getting to the table if the West doesn't go up to or beyond MHB.


Perennial conference champs Rose Hulman and PS-Behrend went down as well.

[jknezek]

I think calling W&L shaky, after the last 2 games, is being kind. I don't know if they finally felt the pressure or what, but the two ODAC tournament games were not good execution. I said weeks ago when they went to #1 I wondered how they would hold up and I'm thinking we saw the breaking point. Many of us have said teams like Messiah, Tufts, Amherst have an advantage in that the program, and the players in the program, have an earned arrogance that shows up on every night. They've been there, done that, and absolutely know, in their core, they can do it again. I don't think the Generals have that arrogance yet, and to me it showed in their play the last 2 games.

I'm actually hopeful that this will be a good kick in the pants for the Generals. They can regroup before the tournament. Maybe they host, maybe they don't. Not hosting maybe gives them a chip on their shoulder. But I saw a team the last two games that was mentally struggling. Talent to make a deep run? Yes. Confidence and execution? Not in the last couple games. Not even close.

[PaulNewman]

I think calling W&L shaky, after the last 2 games, is being kind. I don't know if they finally felt the pressure or what, but the two ODAC tournament games were not good execution. I said weeks ago when they went to #1 I wondered how they would hold up and I'm thinking we saw the breaking point. Many of us have said teams like Messiah, Tufts, Amherst have an advantage in that the program, and the players in the program, have an earned arrogance that shows up on every night. They've been there, done that, and absolutely know, in their core, they can do it again. I don't think the Generals have that arrogance yet, and to me it showed in their play the last 2 games.

I'm actually hopeful that this will be a good kick in the pants for the Generals. They can regroup before the tournament. Maybe they host, maybe they don't. Not hosting maybe gives them a chip on their shoulder. But I saw a team the last two games that was mentally struggling. Talent to make a deep run? Yes. Confidence and execution? Not in the last couple games. Not even close.

People forget that when Tufts won their first one they had zero pressure.  They seemingly came out of nowhere and iirc weren't even ranked in the polls or if so it was pretty low, so to their credit they bypassed the burden and pressure of trying to break through initially as a new front-runner.  Amherst is actually a better example of the burden/pressure because they were expected to get to the Final Four and win a title well before they did, including I think one year when they were undefeated and failed in PKs versus Williams (I might have that detail wrong but the point remains).

I know folks get sick of me talking about Kenyon but as I noted 6-8 weeks ago, the Lords are the closest recent example to W&L with F&M also in the conversation.  Kenyon was #2 for much of 2014 and #1 for much of 2015, and very highly ranked for most of 2016.  They had great success, finally beating OWU in 2014 after inching closer with a few draws, only to draw OWU in the Sweet 16 two weeks later which is not what you want after finally, finally beating your nemesis, and then the game delayed by a day due to ice storm, injuries, etc, and suddenly your wonder season is over.  Then two back to back Elite 8s in games that easily the Lords could have won in 2015 and 2016.  And some very strong seasons since then, but for the most part instead of noting the program having massive success the lingering impression is one of a program that can't/hasn't broken through. 

Anyway, the fact that W&L has risen to heights where they were even in a position to be ranked #1 is amazing, and hopefully they will break through, but it's unfortunate that breaking through is defined in a pretty narrow way, and incredible program success can get turned on itself and become a burden in its own right.

[d4_Pace]

Paul I don't think Calvin is anywhere near a lock to get in sitting at number 5 in their region. I have a feeling North Central may be sitting on the board for a long time which means Calvin may not ever come up for discussion.

[Another Mom]

I think calling W&L shaky, after the last 2 games, is being kind. I don't know if they finally felt the pressure or what, but the two ODAC tournament games were not good execution. I said weeks ago when they went to #1 I wondered how they would hold up and I'm thinking we saw the breaking point. Many of us have said teams like Messiah, Tufts, Amherst have an advantage in that the program, and the players in the program, have an earned arrogance that shows up on every night. They've been there, done that, and absolutely know, in their core, they can do it again. I don't think the Generals have that arrogance yet, and to me it showed in their play the last 2 games.

I'm actually hopeful that this will be a good kick in the pants for the Generals. They can regroup before the tournament. Maybe they host, maybe they don't. Not hosting maybe gives them a chip on their shoulder. But I saw a team the last two games that was mentally struggling. Talent to make a deep run? Yes. Confidence and execution? Not in the last couple games. Not even close.

As always, I agree with you. Earlier in the season they played with flow and almost a kind of magic, and that's disappeared.

I also think this loss may be a wake up call; and if anyone can improve a team's mentality,  surely a professor of sports psychology can!

[d4_Pace]

Only 2 of the last 6 National Champions have won their conference tournament. Something to be said for sitting home angry and healing up the nicks and bruises you pick up over the season.

[Saint of Old]

Only 2 of the last 6 National Champions have won their conference tournament. Something to be said for sitting home angry and healing up the nicks and bruises you pick up over the season.

There have only been 8 Champions in the past 24years... shows you how very hard it is to actually climb the mountain.