2021 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[deiscanton]

Golden goal scored by Mary Washington's first year player Carter Berg in the 107th minute.

Final:  Mary Washington 2, UW-Whitewater 1 after extra time.

Mary Washington will play Christopher Newport tomorrow for the Coast to Coast Conference Men's title and AQ.

[PaulNewman]

Pool C selection musings...

I think there may be a little more movement in RRs from Week 3 to Week 4 than usual. 

Region 2 is fascinating.  WPI was #1 but lost to #4 Coast Guard who then faltered in PKs vs MIT.  Coast Guard owns a 2-0 H2H advantage over WPI.  Ranked records are essentially even with WPI at 3-4-2 and CG at 3-4-1.  WPI has by far the highest SoS around .625 but CG is respectable around .585.  The loser of MIT/Babson will have 4 ranked wins, with MIT having marginally the best record and Babson the second highest SoS estimated around .595.  Assuming at least one of the above is not selected, the ordering by the regional cmte is going to be brutal.

In Region 8 Hope is at #6 while KZoo snuck into the #8 slot.  Hope, if indeed they are still on the bubble, will be cheering hard for KZoo against Trine because I would expect KZoo to jump Hope in the final ranking.  KZoo won't get the SoS bump due to Calvin losing, but Hope won't have a substantial SoS edge and  records for Hope and KZoo if KZoo doesn't beat Trine will be identical or nearly so.  And KZoo owns a 2-0-1 H2H record.  Both will cheer for North Central to win the CCIW AQ.  I'm pretty confident that North Park and Calvin, both with 4 ranked wins, will be selected, but Calvin also should cheer for North Central.

I think barring at least several more upsets at the AQ level that Wesleyan gets in.  When compared to other regions, Wes shakes out pretty well at 10-3-3, .570+ on SoS, and most importantly, 4 ranked wins (4-3-2).  The only issue would be if an unspoken cap comes in to play with conferences getting more than 3 at large bids, but 4 is not unheard of for NESCAC and UAA historically. 

The bigger question in terms of conferences is whether the NEWMAC and Centennial get more than usual as those are the two with 4-5 tightly clustered teams.

In any event, Pool C hopefuls will be relieved if Messiah, Trinity, Cortland, Kenyon, Rowan, North Central, and for good measure, CNU or MW, KZoo, Stevens, Dubuque, CMS, MHB, and Lynchburg take care of business.

When in doubt, and assuming SoS and overall records are reasonable (or not disqualifying), in this year's field look for the teams with 4 or more ranked wins.

My best guess now among teams already in the Pool C cauldron?  The no brainer locks...W&L, OWU, Montclair, and Amherst.  Locks or near-locks for at least 3 UAAs beyond the AQ with Rochester the 5th team sweating it out.  The Otterbein/JCU loser is a lock.  At least two more teams who don't get the NESCAC AQ are locks, although Midd might be a little nervous given their recent history of being left out (if Colby wins).  That puts us up to 10.  From there, I think we're getting at least two NEWMAC teams in Pool C, and I really don't think three are out of the question, but let's say two for now.  Same with the Centennial which I think gets at least two Pool Cs...maybe three, but again, let's say two for now.  So that puts me at 14.

With seven spot left, I'm looking at Vassar, Oneonta, the previously mentioned Rochester, North Park, Calvin, and maybe GAC and Colorado College.  And I realize some of these latter seven could be picked before some others in the paragraph above, so they aren't necessarily the last seven.

Who else could be in serious contention, especially given that the chances of favored teams all winning their AQs from here are low?  Rutgers-Newark, Hope, maybe Stevens if loses, maybe Denison if loses, maybe a 4th NEWMAC and/or Centennial, Lynchburg if loses, CNU/MW loser (I think CNU is in if loses C2C final and MW just moved to 9-5-2 with three ranked wins and an SoS around .595), KZoo if KZoo loses, CMS or MHB if one loses, and I doubt Carleton or Dubuque but we usually get at least one shocker.

[Hopkins92]

Well, Hopkins is now down 2-0 in the first to Gettysburg.

And just to put a finer point on this, there's VERY little evidence this Hopkins (or really any from the last 5 years, at least) that this team is capable of a comeback. I'm not even gonna keep going, because enough of you have heard this music before.

Edit - Well, I'll be happy to eat my words. 2-1 now, and Hopkins is really hammering down. G'burg also saved a PK right after the first Hopkins goal.
Ed2 - Nevermind. 3-1, 17 mins left

[Hopkins Walk-On]

Hopkins lost to Gettysburg 4-1.

[PaulNewman]

I was gonna say nothing's worse, but, again, 1st world problems and not true...that said it's hard to earn hosting privileges and then two days later two other teams are playing for something you were expected to claim on your field.  Very deflating...and then the final is stuck at a venue where there are 17-18 parents in each bleacher, with four ball boys, @deiscanton making sure the live stats are operational, and a very disinterested SID monitoring the event.

[Hopkins92]

And the hits keep coming!! Col. Coll. goes up 1=0 on Trinity.

It's now 2-0 Col. Coll. just... OK.

Hey, oldheads, is this the zaniest year ever in Conf. Tournaments? This seems like.. a lot.

[SimpleCoach]

Hopkins lost to Gettysburg 4-1.

Really not surprised by this result.  I always found JHU ... underwhelming.  Sorry @Hopkins Walk On ...

[Ron Boerger]

And the hits keep coming!! Col. Coll. goes up 1=0 on Trinity.

It's now 2-0 Col. Coll. just... OK.

Hey, oldheads, is this the zaniest year ever in Conf. Tournaments? This seems like.. a lot.

Final: Trinity 6-2 Colorado.  Michael Meese scored four goals including a brace in the final 90 seconds of the first half.

[PaulNewman]

And the hits keep coming!! Col. Coll. goes up 1=0 on Trinity.

It's now 2-0 Col. Coll. just... OK.

Hey, oldheads, is this the zaniest year ever in Conf. Tournaments? This seems like.. a lot.

Final: Trinity 6-2 Colorado.  Michael Meese scored four goals including a brace in the final 90 seconds of the first half.

Very impressive.  Six straight unanswered after down 2-0.  How should this be assessed?  How much is Trinity's quality and how much is this is what CC always seems to do against Trinity....in a word, lose?

[Ron Boerger]

And the hits keep coming!! Col. Coll. goes up 1=0 on Trinity.

It's now 2-0 Col. Coll. just... OK.

Hey, oldheads, is this the zaniest year ever in Conf. Tournaments? This seems like.. a lot.

Final: Trinity 6-2 Colorado.  Michael Meese scored four goals including a brace in the final 90 seconds of the first half.

Very impressive.  Six straight unanswered after down 2-0.  How should this be assessed?  How much is Trinity's quality and how much is this is what CC always seems to do against Trinity....in a word, lose?

Wasn't able to watch but a probably  little of both (and Meese has been a huge difference maker all year).  Neither team got a lot of shots on goal - TU 7, CC 4 - so a grand total of three saves all night.  Last goal for Trinity came off a PK which they let their keeper take, kind of a nice touch for the senior.

[LetteroftheLaw]

Watching this F&M vs WAC game and I am not really impressed with this quality. These guys look spent and sloppy on the ball. Starting to think the Centennial is just down this season. Hoping the Shoremen pull this off just so there's two new teams competing for the conference championship and AQ.

[PaulNewman]

I've never watched Washington College before.  Look pretty good to me...but beyond that the broadcast from quality of the video, to the replays, to the announcers is top-notch.  Don't know if that's a Wash Coll production or a Centennial League thing, but well done.

Now OT.

[PaulNewman]

That's fantastic.

1-0 OT  Wash Coll Final

Sounds like the whole town is involved...pep rally in town square before the game...coaches and team there...."they'll be talking about that goal at all the pubs in Chestertown tonight."  Great stuff.  First ever Centennial final for Wash College.

[LetteroftheLaw]

What a way to end the game, hard to tell if the ball had perfect pace or if it was terrible keeping but regardless great build up and the game winner for the Shoremen. Cannot wait for a Gettysburg vs WAC Centennial final, Go Bullets!

[PaulNewman]

And 10 minutes after the game the video coverage of the on-field celebrating continues...with no commentary...perfect.