2021 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[paclassic89]

St. Thomas (TX) 1- Trinity 0   

[Ron Boerger]

St. Thomas (TX) 1- Trinity 0   

St. Thomas has figured out how to deal with the Trinity attack and have a strong defense.   Here is the series history since they started their SCAC membership:

9/11/19 St Thomas 1-0 @Trinity
3/28/21 St Thomas 2-5 @Trinity
4/24/21 St Thomas 2-1 Trinity (@Centenary LA, SCAC Championships Semis)
9/03/21 @St Thomas 2-3 Trinity 2OT
9/22/21 St Thomas 1-1 @Trinity 2OT
11/7/21 St Thomas 1-0 Trinity (@TLU, SCAC Championship)

Today they only had 2 SOG but it only took one to win the game.   Trinity outshot them by a wide margin but the Celt keeper is a sponge whenever they play, and he's only a sophomore.   

St Thomas is a young team that has more juco/other division transfers than most SCAC schools (7 or 8) though I don't know if any of them see much playing time. 

[Hopkins92]

Paul - I'd take a heads up bet on Messiah vs. Tufts. I haven't seen a team this year that has more of a positive, all-consuming, relentless attack as Messiah. I know you have to handicap the overall SoS, but I just don't think Tufts is as good top to bottom of roster as Messiah.

[PaulNewman]

Paul - I'd take a heads up bet on Messiah vs. Tufts. I haven't seen a team this year that has more of a positive, all-consuming, relentless attack as Messiah. I know you have to handicap the overall SoS, but I just don't think Tufts is as good top to bottom of roster as Messiah.

If Messiah's best player wasn't injured (and I assume that's for the season), I'd probably agree with you.  Numerous posters over the past 6-7 years have failed to be truly impressed by Tufts, at least to a high degree.  I get it because I used to be one of them.  They just win.  And Messiah hasn't been blowing the competition away.  A lot of close wins against less than Tufts-level teams and a very recent loss to PS-H.  Tufts also won't be flustered or bothered by Messiah having a lot of possession. 

[PaulNewman]

More random thoughts...

The now taller Travis van Brewer won't win it, but I think he may be the NESCAC POY and should be a 1st team All-American.  You can't take the ball off him in the midfield, makes smart plays and penetrating runs and passes, and he's lethal on corners and free kicks.

And despite the deceptive scoreline, I was impressed with Conn today.  Haven't really watched them closely but they have 5-6 real talented offensive players.  I didn't see the first 20 minutes but should have been 1-1 at the half.  Conn earned a clear cut PK that they didn't get.  The shouts for PKs later by both sides didn't have anything close to that first one.  Conn is a team I wouldn't want to face again if I'm Tufts.  And I resisted immediately anointing Tufts' frosh GK, Lauta, but he really is excellent and has made some phenomenal saves.

The Washington College GK I think in the 2nd half made a fantastic save.  If anybody sees the clip please post it.

[PaulNewman]

PN's Pool Cs in roughly the order they come off the board....

W&L, Amherst, Chicago, OWU, F&M, Conn Coll, St Olaf, NYU, Otterbein, Emory, Montclair, Kenyon, Rowan, North Park, Hopkins, Calvin, Middlebury


Pick 4 -- Wesleyan, MIT, Coast Guard, WPI, Vassar, Rochester, Gettysburg, GAC, CMS, Hope, Oneonta, Dubuque, Rutgers-Newark

Not a prediction, but I would probably select Wesleyan, whoever cmte ranks higher between MIT/CG/WPI, Rochester, and GAC...and I think CMS wlll be hard to keep out....and if pressed to pick most deserving I'd probably go with Gettysburg...Could also see two NEWMACs getting in.  Big question is whether cmte is willing to have five NESCACs in the tournament and five UAAs.

Looking forward to the D3soccer.com analysis.

So pretty much nailed this compared to the D3soccer projections.  Only major difference is the flip between Wesleyan and Midd, which I considered but did not have the heart to leave Midd out yet again.  I think both get in. 

Other differences were leaving Oneonta and CMS totally out of the picture and I see on women's side basically same result for Southwestern there as CMS here...and putting Coast Guard and Rochester off the bubble.  I'll be mildly surprised to not see UR picked and curious if you guys considered Coast Guard being 2-0-0 with WPI and whether also impacted by MIT being 1-0-1 with Coast Guard.

Addendum:  I now see that D3soccer has no teams in consideration at all (even off the bubble) that don't have at least 3 ranked wins.  Hence, no Oneonta or CMS...and no Colorado Coll who I also left completely off.  We shall see as they say!

[d4_Pace]

Paul I agree with pretty much all your points. First off, I thought Conn was really impressive. I think the relatively new coaching staff there has done an excellent job of elevating the program from a mid tier NESCAC program into I would say clearly in the top 3 at the moment. They moved the ball really well yesterday and certainly were better in possession than Tufts was. And you are right that was 100% a penalty in the first half.

I think TVB has certainly earned his spot in the all time Tufts XI and has probably had more of an impact over all 4 years than just about anyone I can remember. That being said I think Aroh will probably get the nod for the awards later this week.

Finally, Lauta is legit. I think he is definitely the best goalie Tufts has had at least since Greenwood and is on track to surpass him as well. If he stays healthy he should own every goalkeeping record at Tufts except for maybe save percentage in a season which Bruce Johnson holds with 0 goals allowed in 10 games in 2017.

Going to be an interesting tournament. I think key injuries to teams like Messiah and Tufts have brought them closer to the pack and the result is a wide open tournament.

[College Soccer Observer]

PN's Pool Cs in roughly the order they come off the board....

W&L, Amherst, Chicago, OWU, F&M, Conn Coll, St Olaf, NYU, Otterbein, Emory, Montclair, Kenyon, Rowan, North Park, Hopkins, Calvin, Middlebury


Pick 4 -- Wesleyan, MIT, Coast Guard, WPI, Vassar, Rochester, Gettysburg, GAC, CMS, Hope, Oneonta, Dubuque, Rutgers-Newark

Not a prediction, but I would probably select Wesleyan, whoever cmte ranks higher between MIT/CG/WPI, Rochester, and GAC...and I think CMS wlll be hard to keep out....and if pressed to pick most deserving I'd probably go with Gettysburg...Could also see two NEWMACs getting in.  Big question is whether cmte is willing to have five NESCACs in the tournament and five UAAs.

Looking forward to the D3soccer.com analysis.

So pretty much nailed this compared to the D3soccer projections.  Only major difference is the flip between Wesleyan and Midd, which I considered but did not have the heart to leave Midd out yet again.  I think both get in. 

Other differences were leaving Oneonta and CMS totally out of the picture and I see on women's side basically same result for Southwestern there as CMS here...and putting Coast Guard and Rochester off the bubble.  I'll be mildly surprised to not see UR picked and curious if you guys considered Coast Guard being 2-0-0 with WPI and whether also impacted by MIT being 1-0-1 with Coast Guard.

Addendum:  I now see that D3soccer has no teams in consideration at all (even off the bubble) that don't have at least 3 ranked wins.  Hence, no Oneonta or CMS...and no Colorado Coll who I also left completely off.  We shall see as they say!

Going to be very hard for the committee.  If it comes down to Wesleyan vs Midd, I would think that Wes failing to beat Midd in either of their two attempts (3-1 loss and 0-0 draw, failure to advance on penalties) would be decisive.  Can't see Midd being penalized for having to play an extra game vs Tufts which they lost 1-0 but carried much of the play and generated some excellent looks.

[PaulNewman]

Going to be very hard for the committee.  If it comes down to Wesleyan vs Midd, I would think that Wes failing to beat Midd in either of their two attempts (3-1 loss and 0-0 draw, failure to advance on penalties) would be decisive.  Can't see Midd being penalized for having to play an extra game vs Tufts which they lost 1-0 but carried much of the play and generated some excellent looks.

Agreed...seems counter-intuitive.  They had exact same winning pct going into their game, and because of advancing Midd gets small drop in winning pct and an extra ranked loss for their troubles.  The H2H is also a strong argument.  That said, Wes would have the 4 ranked wins regardless.  D3soccer certainly valued ranked wins in their analysis.  Everybody has 5 or more until you get to W&L at 4-0-2, and then those with 4 got the nod over teams with 3.  That said, one could also note that Midd scored a single goal in their last 4 games...including 0-0 with Trinity.  Midd has way too much talent to get 1 goal in 4 games.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

And surprise, surprise, Tufts goes into the tournament as the favorite...beatable but not sure who's gonna beat them.  Probably needs to be team that doesn't give a you know what...like NYU..or maybe Amherst...or maybe Babson.  One would think a NJAC would fit the bill but they have failed miserably against Tufts in recent years.

PN's Pool Cs in roughly the order they come off the board....

W&L, Amherst, Chicago, OWU, F&M, Conn Coll, St Olaf, NYU, Otterbein, Emory, Montclair, Kenyon, Rowan, North Park, Hopkins, Calvin, Middlebury


Pick 4 -- Wesleyan, MIT, Coast Guard, WPI, Vassar, Rochester, Gettysburg, GAC, CMS, Hope, Oneonta, Dubuque, Rutgers-Newark

Not a prediction, but I would probably select Wesleyan, whoever cmte ranks higher between MIT/CG/WPI, Rochester, and GAC...and I think CMS wlll be hard to keep out....and if pressed to pick most deserving I'd probably go with Gettysburg...Could also see two NEWMACs getting in.  Big question is whether cmte is willing to have five NESCACs in the tournament and five UAAs.

Looking forward to the D3soccer.com analysis.

BTW, huge congrats to Washington College!  Outstanding.

Like it Paul! Here is my best guess at the 21 Pool Cs for this afternoon...

1. Amherst
2. Chicago
3. W&L
4. OWU
5. Emory
6. NYU
7. F&M
8. St. Olaf
9. Montclair St
10. Kenyon
11. Otterbein
12. Conn College
13. Hopkins
14. Rowan
15. North Park
16. Wesleyan
17. Vassar
18. Gustavus Adolphus
19. Calvin
20. MIT
21. Gettysburg
------------------------------
Swat
Coast Guard
UR
WPI
Newark
MW
Hope
Oneonta
CMS

[PaulNewman]

MAF, I like your list a lot.  Vassar is an interesting one.  But did you forget Midd???

[deiscanton]

MAF, I like your list a lot.  Vassar is an interesting one.  But did you forget Midd???

MAF probably saw Midd get the NESCAC women's AQ and accidentally thought it was the men's..... LOL

[paclassic89]

I know this won't be the case but I think Hopkins and Calvin both should be closer to missing out than getting in. 

[PaulNewman]

New prediction...the 1st and 2nd rounds are gonna be wild with some brutal match-ups and surprising early exits.  And at least 3-4 (probably more) of the higher profile AQs won't get to the 2nd weekend.

[Bucket]

Going to be very hard for the committee.  If it comes down to Wesleyan vs Midd, I would think that Wes failing to beat Midd in either of their two attempts (3-1 loss and 0-0 draw, failure to advance on penalties) would be decisive.  Can't see Midd being penalized for having to play an extra game vs Tufts which they lost 1-0 but carried much of the play and generated some excellent looks.

Agreed...seems counter-intuitive.  They had exact same winning pct going into their game, and because of advancing Midd gets small drop in winning pct and an extra ranked loss for their troubles.  The H2H is also a strong argument.  That said, Wes would have the 4 ranked wins regardless.  D3soccer certainly valued ranked wins in their analysis.  Everybody has 5 or more until you get to W&L at 4-0-2, and then those with 4 got the nod over teams with 3.  That said, one could also note that Midd scored a single goal in their last 4 games...including 0-0 with Trinity.  Midd has way too much talent to get 1 goal in 4 games.

What matters is the regional ranking. If the regional committee ranks Wesleyan ahead of Midd in its final ranking today, the national committee cannot take Midd over Wesleyan; it can only take Wesleyan or both.