2021 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

PaulNewman · November 08, 2021, 10:33:20 AM

Quote from: Bucket on November 08, 2021, 10:28:58 AM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 08, 2021, 09:14:18 AM
Quote from: College Soccer Observer on November 08, 2021, 08:52:30 AM
Going to be very hard for the committee. If it comes down to Wesleyan vs Midd, I would think that Wes failing to beat Midd in either of their two attempts (3-1 loss and 0-0 draw, failure to advance on penalties) would be decisive. Can't see Midd being penalized for having to play an extra game vs Tufts which they lost 1-0 but carried much of the play and generated some excellent looks.

Agreed...seems counter-intuitive. They had exact same winning pct going into their game, and because of advancing Midd gets small drop in winning pct and an extra ranked loss for their troubles. The H2H is also a strong argument. That said, Wes would have the 4 ranked wins regardless. D3soccer certainly valued ranked wins in their analysis. Everybody has 5 or more until you get to W&L at 4-0-2, and then those with 4 got the nod over teams with 3. That said, one could also note that Midd scored a single goal in their last 4 games...including 0-0 with Trinity. Midd has way too much talent to get 1 goal in 4 games.

What matters is the regional ranking. If the regional committee ranks Wesleyan ahead of Midd in its final ranking today, the national committee cannot take Midd over Wesleyan; it can only take Wesleyan or both.

Correct...and exactly why who the cmte gives the edge to in the regional ranking is critical.

Christan Shirk · November 08, 2021, 10:39:50 AM

Jim and I at D3soccer.com don't have the time, energy and resources to do the full evaluation that the NCAA is able to do with 10 Regional Advisory Committees each focused on just their region. As such, we will inevitable miss something that may prove to be decisive in the final ranking order and the selections. Head-to-head is one thing that is easy to miss when tackling it all with just a two-person staff. We overlooked the head-to-head between Middlebury and Wesleyan, and maybe would have flipped their place in our predictions if we had it to do over again.

By the way, we have added more commentary to our predictions including a bit about Claremont and Colorado at the end. We wanted to get our predictions up last night, but didn't make it, but definetely wanted them up first thing in the morning and didn't want to hold them back until we had time to provide a bit of commentary.

Rochester does always seem to make it even when carrying a lot of blemishes, but it didn't seem as plausible this year.

PaulNewman · November 08, 2021, 11:00:54 AM

Christan, thanks. Great job as always. Could you share your thought process with Coast Grd vs WPI and MIT? And were you guys intentionally considering 3 ranked wins a required bar?

Gregory Sager · November 08, 2021, 11:23:53 AM

Quote from: Christan Shirk on November 08, 2021, 10:39:50 AM
Jim and I at D3soccer.com don't have the time, energy and resources to do the full evaluation that the NCAA is able to do with 10 Regional Advisory Committees each focused on just their region. As such, we will inevitable miss something that may prove to be decisive in the final ranking order and the selections. Head-to-head is one thing that is easy to miss when tackling it all with just a two-person staff. We overlooked the head-to-head between Middlebury and Wesleyan, and maybe would have flipped their place in our predictions if we had it to do over again.

By the way, we have added more commentary to our predictions including a bit about Claremont and Colorado at the end. We wanted to get our predictions up last night, but didn't make it, but definetely wanted them up first thing in the morning and didn't want to hold them back until we had time to provide a bit of commentary.

Rochester does always seem to make it even when carrying a lot of blemishes, but it didn't seem as plausible this year.

Christan, thanks as always to you and Jim for a Selection Day job well done.

And now back to my five-day marathon of nail-biting ...

Mid-Atlantic Fan · November 08, 2021, 11:31:01 AM

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 08, 2021, 09:25:00 AM
MAF, I like your list a lot. Vassar is an interesting one. But did you forget Midd???

Yes think I overlooked Middlebury. Put them in somewhere and bump one of the last 5?? Flip a coin I guess

I think Vassar is easily in but I see others think not...we shall see!

College Soccer Observer · November 08, 2021, 12:14:10 PM

Quote from: Christan Shirk on November 08, 2021, 10:39:50 AM
Jim and I at D3soccer.com don't have the time, energy and resources to do the full evaluation that the NCAA is able to do with 10 Regional Advisory Committees each focused on just their region. As such, we will inevitable miss something that may prove to be decisive in the final ranking order and the selections. Head-to-head is one thing that is easy to miss when tackling it all with just a two-person staff. We overlooked the head-to-head between Middlebury and Wesleyan, and maybe would have flipped their place in our predictions if we had it to do over again.

By the way, we have added more commentary to our predictions including a bit about Claremont and Colorado at the end. We wanted to get our predictions up last night, but didn't make it, but definetely wanted them up first thing in the morning and didn't want to hold them back until we had time to provide a bit of commentary.

Rochester does always seem to make it even when carrying a lot of blemishes, but it didn't seem as plausible this year.

I am extremely grateful for the time and energy you both put into this as a service to D3 fans throughout the country. Debates are the lifeblood of college sports, whether about college football playoffs, March Madness, or Pool C bids. Thanks for a job well done.

deiscanton · November 08, 2021, 02:11:48 PM

Selections came out at 1:30 PM Eastern on NCAA.com, and I am sure that a lot of you watched the stream live on tape as it was released.

My immediate reaction:

(1) Rochester got in after all as a Pool C-- They play Calvin in the first round at Ohio Wesleyan. That makes 4 Pool C's on the UAA men's side. I am not surprised that Gabe Margolis, who is on the national committee as Region II chair, convinced the fellow members to look deeper into Rochester's resume, and that convinced the rest of the committee to select the Yellowjackets.

(2) NYU men have to play St. Joe's Maine in the first round at Connecticut College, and NYU starting goalkeeper Luca Mancuso is suspended for this round as a result of getting his 5th yellow card of the season on Saturday vs Brandeis. Back up goalkeeper Nick Vafiadas will be in goal for NYU for the first round, and he was the goalkeeper when Mount St. Vincent beat NYU earlier this season.

This game looks to me like a game that the Monks could win, and advance to play the Camels, who should not have much trouble getting past Salem State. The MASCAC was a very weak league this season outside of Salem State-- in regular season MASCAC play, the Vikings did not concede a goal in conference play.

(3) Mount St. Vincent's Dolphins have to take down host Rowan in the first round to extend their season-- Is Rowan vulnerable to an upset? Or will this game go as expected in that the Skyline champ usually does not advance past the first round of NCAAs.

(4) Emory will play Centre in a men's soccer match in the first round-- Their women's soccer programs faced each other earlier this season.

(5) The only UAA men's soccer team hosting first and second round matches this weekend is Emory. Emory's women will be playing Wittenberg at Centre in the first round, so Emory could face Centre again on the women's side in the second round.

Ejay · November 08, 2021, 02:20:09 PM

Quote from: Christan Shirk on November 08, 2021, 10:39:50 AM
Jim and I at D3soccer.com don't have the time, energy and resources to do the full evaluation that the NCAA is able to do with 10 Regional Advisory Committees each focused on just their region. As such, we will inevitable miss something that may prove to be decisive in the final ranking order and the selections. Head-to-head is one thing that is easy to miss when tackling it all with just a two-person staff. We overlooked the head-to-head between Middlebury and Wesleyan, and maybe would have flipped their place in our predictions if we had it to do over again.

By the way, we have added more commentary to our predictions including a bit about Claremont and Colorado at the end. We wanted to get our predictions up last night, but didn't make it, but definetely wanted them up first thing in the morning and didn't want to hold them back until we had time to provide a bit of commentary.

Rochester does always seem to make it even when carrying a lot of blemishes, but it didn't seem as plausible this year.

Gregory Sager · November 08, 2021, 02:23:11 PM

Quote from: deiscanton on November 08, 2021, 02:11:48 PM
(1) Rochester got in after all as a Pool C-- They play Calvin in the first round at Ohio Wesleyan. That makes 4 Pool C's on the UAA men's side. I am not surprised that Gabe Margolis, who is on the national committee as Region II chair, convinced the fellow members to look deeper into Rochester's resume, and that convinced the rest of the committee to select the Yellowjackets.

Allen, there are strict NCAA rules concerning the participation of a committee member in a discussion that involves his or her institution. That person is required to recuse him- or herself and leave the conversation, whether it's in-person or remote, during the discussion of his or her school. I'm sure that Gabe Margolis had no input into Rochester getting into the field. Whether his associates consciously or unconsciously favored the Yellowjackets because they know Gabe and think he's a swell guy is another matter, but you can't really control that if you're the NCAA. You can only hope that the committee members take their job seriously enough to be impartial and objective and stick to the criteria.

LetteroftheLaw · November 08, 2021, 02:23:49 PM

Quote from: Ejay on November 08, 2021, 02:20:09 PM
Quote from: Christan Shirk on November 08, 2021, 10:39:50 AM
Jim and I at D3soccer.com don't have the time, energy and resources to do the full evaluation that the NCAA is able to do with 10 Regional Advisory Committees each focused on just their region. As such, we will inevitable miss something that may prove to be decisive in the final ranking order and the selections. Head-to-head is one thing that is easy to miss when tackling it all with just a two-person staff. We overlooked the head-to-head between Middlebury and Wesleyan, and maybe would have flipped their place in our predictions if we had it to do over again.

By the way, we have added more commentary to our predictions including a bit about Claremont and Colorado at the end. We wanted to get our predictions up last night, but didn't make it, but definetely wanted them up first thing in the morning and didn't want to hold them back until we had time to provide a bit of commentary.

Rochester does always seem to make it even when carrying a lot of blemishes, but it didn't seem as plausible this year.

Not bad Christian. The only big miss was Lynchburg...

LOCKS - NO DISCUSSION NEEDED (2)
1. Chicago (12-5-1) - Reg. VIII | .694 Win Pct. | .648 SoS | 9-3-1 RvR
2. Amherst (12-2-2) - Reg. I | .813 Win Pct. | .635 SoS | 6-2-1 RvR

LOCKS - RUBBER-STAMPING DISCUSSION (2)
3. Ohio Wesleyan (14-2-2) - Reg. VII | .833 Win Pct. | .580 SoS | 5-2-2 RvR
4. Washington and Lee (14-1-2) - Reg. VI | .882 Win Pct. | .595 SoS | 4-0-2 RvR

SAFE, NO WORRIES (2)
5. Emory (9-3-4) - Reg. VI | .688 Win Pct. | .638 SoS | 5-2-3 RvR
6. New York University (10-5-1) - Reg. IV | .656 Win Pct. | .633 SoS | 5-3-0 RvR

IN GOOD SHAPE (6)
7. Franklin and Marshall (14-3-1) - Reg. V | .806 Win Pct. | .606 SoS | 4-3-1 RvR
8. St. Olaf (17-2-1) - Reg. IX | .875 Win Pct. | .564 SoS | 4-2-1 RvR
9. Montclair State (16-3-1) - Reg. IV | .825 Win Pct. | .566 SoS | 4-3-0 RvR
10. Connecticut College (14-3-0) - Reg. I | .778 Win Pct. | .600 SoS | 4-4-0 RvR
11. Kenyon (15-2-1) - Reg. VII | .861 Win Pct. | .553 SoS | 4-2-1 RvR
12. Otterbein (14-1-4) - Reg. VII | .842 Win Pct. | .570 SoS | 3-1-4 RvR

NERVOUS, BUT PROBABLY OKAY (2)
13. Rowan (12-3-2) - Reg. IV | .765 Win Pct. | .597 SoS | 3-3-1 RvR
14. North Park (13-5-0) - Reg. VIII | .722 Win Pct. | .584 SoS | 4-4-0 RvR

RIGHT SIDE OF THE BUBBLE (3)
15. Johns Hopkins (11-4-2) - Reg. V | .706 Win Pct. | .574 SoS | 4-3-0 RvR
~~16. Wesleyan (10-3-3) - Reg. I | .719 Win Pct. | .570 SoS | 4-3-2 RvR~~
17. Calvin (15-3-2) - Reg. VIII | .778 Win Pct. | .546 SoS | 4-2-1 RvR

SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE (PICK 'EM 4 OF 6)
18. MIT (13-4-2) - Reg. II | .737 Win Pct. | .555 SoS | 4-3-1 RvR
19. Gustavus Adolphus (14-5-0) - Reg. IX | .737 Win Pct. | .567 SoS | 3-3-0 RvR
20. Middlebury (10-4-3) - Reg. I | .676 Win Pct. | .599 SoS | 3-3-2 RvR
21. Vassar (11-4-2) - Reg. III | .706 Win Pct. | .574 SoS | 3-1-0 RvR
22. WPI (10-5-3) - Reg. II | .639 Win Pct. | .613 SoS | 3-4-2 RvR
23. Gettysburg (13-4-2) - Reg. V | .700 Win Pct. | .591 SoS | 3-4-2 RvR

WRONG SIDE OF THE BUBBLE
Swarthmore (11-4-2) - Reg. V | .706 Win Pct. | .574 SoS | 3-3-1 RvR
Coast Guard (12-4-2) - Reg. II | .722 Win Pct. | .569 SoS | 3-4-1 RvR
Rutgers-Newark (12-4-4) - Reg. IV | .700 Win Pct. | .555 SoS | 3-2-1 RvR
Mary Washington (9-6-2) - Reg. VI | .625 Win Pct. | .601 SoS | 3-3-1 RvR
Rochester (9-3-4) - Reg. III | .688 Win Pct. | .593 SoS | 3-3-1 RvR
~~Hope (11-4-3) - Reg. VIII | .694 Win Pct. | .561 SoS | 3-4-2 RvR~~

WEST COAST LOVE
Colorado College (11-5-1) - Reg. X | .676 Win Pct. | .551 SoS | 2-3-1 RvR
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (14-2-3) - Reg. X | .861 Win Pct. | .533 SoS | 1-1-0 RvR

Lynchburg was an AQ...
Pretty spot on with the predictions

Christan Shirk · November 08, 2021, 02:32:11 PM

Quote from: Ejay on November 08, 2021, 02:20:09 PM
Quote from: Christan Shirk on November 08, 2021, 10:39:50 AM
Jim and I at D3soccer.com don't have the time, energy and resources to do the full evaluation that the NCAA is able to do with 10 Regional Advisory Committees each focused on just their region. As such, we will inevitable miss something that may prove to be decisive in the final ranking order and the selections. Head-to-head is one thing that is easy to miss when tackling it all with just a two-person staff. We overlooked the head-to-head between Middlebury and Wesleyan, and maybe would have flipped their place in our predictions if we had it to do over again.

By the way, we have added more commentary to our predictions including a bit about Claremont and Colorado at the end. We wanted to get our predictions up last night, but didn't make it, but definetely wanted them up first thing in the morning and didn't want to hold them back until we had time to provide a bit of commentary.

Rochester does always seem to make it even when carrying a lot of blemishes, but it didn't seem as plausible this year.

Not bad Christian. The only big miss was Lynchburg...

Actually Lynchburg was the AQ. We had an error in our list when it originally posted, including Lynchburg as an at-large selection instead of Johns Hopkins.

So the biggest miss was Oneonta State. If we had listed one more team on the wrong side of the bubble it may have been Oneonta. I think St. Lawrence may have snuck into the final rankings which would have given Oneonta another RvR.

I already admitted that our oversight of Middlebury's head-to-head results with Wesleyan probably had us leaning the wrong way on who would be higher in the Region I rankings.

deiscanton · November 08, 2021, 02:33:41 PM

Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 08, 2021, 02:23:11 PM
Quote from: deiscanton on November 08, 2021, 02:11:48 PM
(1) Rochester got in after all as a Pool C-- They play Calvin in the first round at Ohio Wesleyan. That makes 4 Pool C's on the UAA men's side. I am not surprised that Gabe Margolis, who is on the national committee as Region II chair, convinced the fellow members to look deeper into Rochester's resume, and that convinced the rest of the committee to select the Yellowjackets.

Allen, there are strict NCAA rules concerning the participation of a committee member in a discussion that involves his or her institution. That person is required to recuse him- or herself and leave the conversation, whether it's in-person or remote, during the discussion of his or her school. I'm sure that Gabe Margolis had no input into Rochester getting into the field. Whether his associates consciously or unconsciously favored the Yellowjackets because they know Gabe and think he's a swell guy is another matter, but you can't really control that if you're the NCAA. You can only hope that the committee members take their job seriously enough to be impartial and objective and stick to the criteria.

I know that Gabe Margolis has to leave the room if the Brandeis men's soccer team is involved in the conversation, but I did not know that that rule extended to any other team in the UAA, too, if it is on the national table (Gabe Margolis is the Brandeis men's soccer coach, and is on the national committee by virtue of being the Region II chair.)

Margolis can only chair the RAC for Region II (and he can't even vote on the Region II RAC call, anyway, as he chairs Region II), and Rochester is in Region III.

BTW, I am sure that they stuck to the criteria when the national committee made their selections.

Hopkins92 · November 08, 2021, 02:35:01 PM

Some quick reactions:

* As a total homer, that selection show was BRUTAL.

If you didn't watch, Hopkins was held off the board until the very last match-up in the 64 team field was displayed. Serves them right for finishing the season so poorly.

* Slightly less parochially, and an obvious point but one that needs to be said, I think the selection committee overvalued the Centennial this year. On the one hand, when I saw Swat in the very first pod, I felt good for the rest of the conference. On the other hand, I just don't know that Swat and Gettysburg deserve their spots. Heck, as mentioned by paclassic, pretty debatable that Hopkins deserves theirs, either.

* Want to build out on deiscanton highlighted. The NYU - St. Joe's matchup leapt off the screen as a potential barn burner in the first round. Given the chatter on the board about SLU, I really think that match-up with the Shoremen will be entertaining. Also circling the Rochester vs. Calvin game. Something to prove for both squads there.

Gregory Sager · November 08, 2021, 02:56:40 PM

Quote from: deiscanton on November 08, 2021, 02:33:41 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 08, 2021, 02:23:11 PM
Quote from: deiscanton on November 08, 2021, 02:11:48 PM
(1) Rochester got in after all as a Pool C-- They play Calvin in the first round at Ohio Wesleyan. That makes 4 Pool C's on the UAA men's side. I am not surprised that Gabe Margolis, who is on the national committee as Region II chair, convinced the fellow members to look deeper into Rochester's resume, and that convinced the rest of the committee to select the Yellowjackets.

Allen, there are strict NCAA rules concerning the participation of a committee member in a discussion that involves his or her institution. That person is required to recuse him- or herself and leave the conversation, whether it's in-person or remote, during the discussion of his or her school. I'm sure that Gabe Margolis had no input into Rochester getting into the field. Whether his associates consciously or unconsciously favored the Yellowjackets because they know Gabe and think he's a swell guy is another matter, but you can't really control that if you're the NCAA. You can only hope that the committee members take their job seriously enough to be impartial and objective and stick to the criteria.

I know that Gabe Margolis has to leave the room if the Brandeis men's soccer team is involved in the conversation, but I did not know that that rule extended to any other team in the UAA, too, if it is on the national table (Gabe Margolis is the Brandeis men's soccer coach, and is on the national committee by virtue of being the Region II chair.)

You're right, Allen. My bad. I don't know why I was thinking "Apple" when I was reading "Margolis."

I blame it on giddiness induced by the serendipity of NPU getting to host next weekend.

Time to step away from the computer and get some fresh air.

Buck O. · November 08, 2021, 04:00:45 PM

Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 08, 2021, 02:56:40 PM
I blame it on giddiness induced by the serendipity of NPU getting to host next weekend.

That makes one of us. Not too thrilled with WashU drawing NPU as a potential second-round opponent. IMO, that should be a third-round matchup (in which case WashU would have gotten to host it, if it had happened).