Great Lakes Region Navigation Channel

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon has been tempting fate in some recent matches and again was very fortunate last night getting a very difficult 1-0 win over a Wittenberg side that clearly was very highly motivated with an exuberant, rowdy crowd.  Witt played a fantastic game just as Wooster recently did against the Owls.  The Tigers outhustled and out-physicaled Kenyon for the entire game.  Kenyon did all of the things I complained about teams doing on another network....playing too ticky-tacky inside their own third and inside their own 18.  Even when the Owls needed some relief, Pedeschri (GK) rolled the ball to a CB next to him.  The Owls also fell to the ground just as I had described frequently and sometimes in their own third, falling on the ball, and waiting for a foul call.  The ref seemed to catch on...to the point of then not calling some fouls that looked like real fouls.  And then to top it off the Owls started taking the ball the the corner with five minutes left, including when they had a very dangerous free kick with maybe less than three minutes left.  They of course lost the ball quickly allowing Wittenberg another counter chance.  Very, very odd game where probably 70% (and nearly 80%) of the game was played in the Kenyon half.   The commentator for Witt, despite being a little monotone was often right on the money with his observations....praising Kenyon's skill and ability to move the ball around and also extolling the effort and defensive shape maintained by Witt.  Kenyon did have more of the possession but especially in the second half could not manage to play on Witt's side of the field.  Witt repeatedly stripped or stole the ball and seemed like they had 13 players going against 11.  The only problem for Witt is that they couldn'y keep the ball either.  Coach Wall should watch this game with the team with the announcer's commentary.

Given the poor start of the season it's hard to get too upset about the Owls as they clawed back and have kept their streak of unbeaten regular season conference games going to now 57, but part of my "job" is to be critical and point out issues that even a layman like myself can see.  Kenyon must embrace that their gap between floor and ceiling is more compressed than in some recent years...and not playing at or near their ceiling will result in losses and a quick dismissal from the tournament if they make it. 

Also curious if anyone knows if the Owls are expecting to get any players back who have not been playing.  I know Martinez is supposedly out for the entire season, but what about Lantz and Sanchez-Kornfeld? 

One last thing about not getting a foul call and losing the ball in your own third.  I was thinking that the players if they are going to try to draw fouls like that it would be much better to do in the other team's final third.  Now I'm wondering if that's not always the case...and whether losing the ball like that in the other team's final third actually provides better counter opportunities and potential breakaways than losing the ball in your own end because depending where the ball is lost your team may have more players in that half of the field to provide more congestion that might not be available in the other scenario.  For example, I think I just read yesterday that SLU did not get a PK call and Union immediately turned SLU's loss of the ball into a breakout the other way.

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon runs regular season conference unbeaten streak to 58 and in process claims Owls' 8th consecutive NCAC regular season title.  Better today, and although frustrating, probably good that CR did Kenyon no favors with the whistle allowing Wabash to play an extremely physical match.  Team has to learn how to deal with non-calls and not allow the opponent unnecessary extra chances.  Duratovic put Kenyon ahead in the 12th minute on a nifty bicycle kick goal, and running mate Dujakovich put the game away finally in the 86th minute.

And the best news of all?  Gerardo Martinez played!  And looked pretty good in limited minutes.  Still feel like they might need one more stud, but barring other major injuries to key guys his return is significant in terms of the Owls being a legitimate contender.  Ramirez didn't play today so hopefully that is short-term.

[Rcjh2245]

Great win for the Owls on Senior Day, nice to see Martinez back in the mix. Getting closer to a healthy squad, and my gosh who doesn't love a bicycle kick goal! Check it out: https://youtu.be/HxdNtCGt3zc?si=f5XiuVKPXns7juxL.

[PaulNewman]

John Carroll drops second game in a row...today to Capital.  Despite the mini-slump JCU is likely to remain top dog in Region VII as I can't see who would catch and surpass them, which will be important for hosting decisions.

Forgot to note last night that Carnegie Mellon lost at home 3-0 to Wash U.  Hard to see how CMU is going to get a bid at this point.

[TableMax]

With all due respect let's look at the facts..  The results on the pitch. Kenyon smashed by JCU and Ohio Northern and would be mid table in the OAC. Kenyon needs the automatic bid to go through to the tournament.  The OAC could get 3 if you look at the results.. 

[PaulNewman]

With all due respect let's look at the facts..  The results on the pitch. Kenyon smashed by JCU and Ohio Northern and would be mid table in the OAC. Kenyon needs the automatic bid to go through to the tournament.  The OAC could get 3 if you look at the results..

Not sure what you're reacting to as I was very clear that JCU will still be considered the #1 team in the region.

On the rest, with all due respect you have no clue what you are talking about.

[TableMax]

No need to get aggressive about my opinion.  I was just pointing out JCU table maxed Kenyon and ONU had their way as well.  I thought this was the "Great Lakes Navigation Channel" and opinions were welcomed..Good Luck..

[PaulNewman]

Oh, so opinions can't go both ways?  I found your first post to be a little aggressive.  You made very declarative statements and it was clear you don't fully understand Pool C selections.  And if you're gonna give so much weight to the first two games of the season, how much weight should the cmte give to two back to back losses later in the season?  In reality the cmte doesn't care about when losses happened.  Winning pct, regionally ranked results, and SoS are the variables.

[TableMax]

"you clearly don't understand pool c selections". Another back slap.  Relax.  Just pointing out your obvious bias.  I have 1 post and you get nasty.  You have pages of posts I would disagree on.  Am I  allowed to  stick up for the OAC??  Otterbein..Mt. Union. JCU. ONU. Cap. need some commentary as well..  Again.  Good Luck to you..

[PaulNewman]

"you clearly don't understand pool c selections". Another back slap.  Relax.  Just pointing out your obvious bias.  I have 1 post and you get nasty.  You have pages of posts I would disagree on.  Am I  allowed to  stick up for the OAC??  Otterbein..Mt. Union. JCU. ONU. Cap. need some commentary as well..  Again.  Good Luck to you..

What bias?  What was the original point you wanted to make?  Yes, Kenyon got smoked in its first two games by JCU and ONU.  Facts.  But what is your point with that?  If you or others think Kenyon is getting too much attention in this thread, you and others can fix that easily.  Give us a deep dive on your team.  That's Capital, right? 

Can you stick up for the OAC?  Of course!  Have you read my posts praising the OAC and endorsing that it is clearly stronger overall than NCAC?  I've praised and written about JCU frequently.  I'm also an Otterbein fan.  I was hoping Wilmington would do better this year. 

[PaulNewman]

I have to admit that I do get annoyed and defensive about jabs that seem like they're coming out of left field and/or I'm not sure what the poster is reacting to.

My best guess on this one is that I post too much about Kenyon.  Fair enough.  Kenyon is one of primary reasons I'm here as I presume is the case for many of us.  I also regularly have posted commentary and content about programs all across the country as much or more than any poster on the site.  One year I did features on the Wisconsin schools in the Greater Milwaukee area.  I did a feature on Keuka College.  I brought Sewanee and Rhodes into conversations.  I've posted more stuff about the OAC and OAC teams than any poster with the possible exception of one.  In the most recent edition of the show with SC we spent an entire segment specifically on the OAC.  But somehow I'm the reason there isn't more commentary on OAC teams?  If posters feel their teams aren't getting the attention they deserve then they should post about them.  When I talk about Kenyon I try to be as objective and fair as I can, especially when it comes to critiques regarding my own team.

Here is what I wrote on Sept. 3rd after the JCU-Kenyon game....

Brilliant, decisive, mature, and physically dominant performance by John Carroll today.  The Blue Streaks embarrassed Kenyon in Gambier, outclassing and bullying the Owls all over the field.  The transfer from Akron got the first tally and then added insult to injury throughout the game.  JCU is a very, very good team and should prove to be a legitimate national threat.  They stayed compact and seemed to swallow up every Kenyon offensive effort, and then used the counter-attack to great effect, resulting in transition forays where every JCU player seemed to receive the ball with no Owl within 15 yards.

And below are all the comments about the actual game from all of the OAC/JCU fans...

[GenerallyInterested]

No need to get aggressive about my opinion.  I was just pointing out JCU table maxed Kenyon and ONU had their way as well.  I thought this was the "Great Lakes Navigation Channel" and opinions were welcomed..Good Luck..

Tablemax - you just have to try to let it go.  PN has zero self awareness....does this to most everyone that has an alternate take - then lords over the board As if he is  the true north of all things D3 soccer, or tries to draw attention to where he thinks he is fair and balanced.  Then - when called out - he seeks approval and justification from the board related to his self centered and gas lit comments.  Sadly, many still pander to him....and even more sadly.....the board just gets quieter and quieter. 

[PaulNewman]

Any projections about regionally ranked teams are based solely on projections of who most likely will be regionally ranked for the 3rd and 4th weeks of the NCAA regional rankings. 

For breadth of discussion I selected 12 Region VII teams for consideration even though apparently there are only 7 ranking slots.  A team could make the week 4 rankings based on conference tourney/last weekend results, and also could fall out for the same reason.  However, it is my understanding that being regionally ranked in EITHER week 3 or 4 "counts" for the final calculations for selection day.

I may make very broad inferences about SoS but SoS also will shift to some degree over the next two weeks.

Capital – 8-6-1 (2-4-1) – CWRU (L); OWU (L); Otterbein (L); ONU (L); Mt Union (L); JCU (W)

Asssessment:  Even presuming a very solid to very high SoS it is difficult to see how Capital will be in contention for a Pool C.  The winning percentage is not competitive and projection for RvR is 1-5.  Capital needs to win the OAC tournament.

Carnegie Mellon – 7-4-3 (0-2-2) – JCU (L); Mt Aloysius (T); Brandeis (T); Rochester (T); York (L); Emory (L); Wash U (L)

Assessment:  Winning percentage not great but would not be disqualifying.  What hurts the Tartans is a more pedestrian SoS than usual and more importantly a lack of ranked wins.  Also likely/possible for draws with Mt. Aloysius and Brandeis to not count for RvR, so that would project today as possible RvR of 0-2-1.  CMU however could force themselves into the conversation by winning at least two out of their last three....Chicago (today), NYU, CWRU.

CWRU – 7-2-3 (1-1-2) – Otterbein (W); Capital (W); JCU (T); Mt Union (L); Denison (W); NYU (W); Emory (L); Rochester (T); Chicago (T)

Assessment:  Good enough winning percentage and high SoS.  Don't think Capital will be regionally ranked and Denison also easily could fall out, so right now I would project RvR at 1-2-3.  Denison keeping a ranking and/or NYU gaining one would be very helpful, and there is not a clear-cut RvR opportunity with the three remaining tilts against Wash U, Brandeis, CMU.  Bottom line imo is that CWRU still controls its own fate but would really benefit from positive results in the last three (at least 2-1 or 2-0-1) with  at least one of those teams getting ranked.

Denison – 9-3-3 (3-1-2) – JCU (W); CWRU (L); Otterbein (L); Kenyon (L)

Assessment:  The Big Red are in trouble.  Decent record and average SoS but RvR today projects as 1-3 (albeit the one win coming against JCU).  Denison is almost certainly going to play OWU twice in the next couple of weeks, and imo they need at least one and preferably two wins (1-0-1 might suffice) against OWU.  Of course Denison should have an opportunity to do what they did two years ago...knock off OWU and maybe Kenyon back to back in the NCAC tourney for the AQ.

John Carroll – 11-4-1 (5-2) – Kenyon (W); CMU (W); CWRU (T); OWU (W); Denison (L); Calvin (L); North Park (W); ONU (W); Otterbein (L); Capital (L)

Assessment:  JCU is still in good shape with only Mt. Union to face before OAC tourney.  Good enough record, strong SoS, and here's the biggie, a probable RvR as of today at 4-1-1 which could be impacted a bit by what happens to Denison and last game with the Purple Raiders.  Regardless, four wins are in the bag and no other team in the region is likely to have four or more.  That said, JCU should be motivated to finish strong for hosting preferences and momentum going into tournament play.

Kenyon – 13-3 (7-0) – ONU (L); JCU (L); St Olaf (W); Mt Aloysius (W); Trine (L); OWU (W); Denison (W)

Assessment:  Kenyon barring losses in their next two should have one of the higher winning pcts (with maybe only Mt Union better there) but the SoS could land at just average.  Denison ironically is probably the Owls' biggest variable.  Losing that ranked win would hurt (but also hurt a couple of other teams in contention) as Kenyon would then only have two ranked wins.  Actually Kenyon losing in the NCAC final to Denison would probably be OK because that might mean Denison picked up two more ranked wins and thereby would close the rankings season in a ranked position.  RvR today is 4-2, but could slip at worst to probably 2-3 depending on Denison and whether Trine slips in in Region 8.  I do not excerpt Mt Aloysius to hold a ranked position so that W will go.

Mt Aloysius – 10-2-3 (7-1) – Buffalo St (T); Lycoming (T); Kenyon (L); CMU (T)

Assessment:  Almost certainly AQ or bust for Mt Aloysius.  No ranked wins and no chance for any in remaining contests.

Mt Union – 14-1-1 (5-1-1) – Calvin (W); CWRU (W); ONU (L); Capital (W)

Assessment:  Outstanding record and two solid ranked wins with late season opportunity as still have JCU and Otterbein left.  Comparatively lower SoS but that will rise once they've played JCU and Otterbein.  RvR currently at 2-1.  May not need a third one but that would probably insulate them in the event they don't win the OAC tourney.

Ohio Northern – 9-5-2 (5-1-1) – Kenyon (W); Calvin (L); Colorado Coll (T); OWU (L); North Central (L); North Park (W); Rose Hulman (L); Mt Union (W); Otterbein (T); Capital (W); JCU (L)
Assessment:  One of the more interesting resumes in the country.  Last week had 2nd highest SoS (.648) among ranked teams, second only to Amherst (.649).  Polar Bears have improved record to viability on that score, and RvR appears relatively set at 3-4-2.  ONU should win their last two regular season games putting them at 11-5-2 and able to absorb another loss in the OAC tourney and still get a bid.

Ohio Wesleyan – 11-3-1 (5-1) – Hope (T); Calvin (L); St Olaf (W); ONU (W); JCU (L); Otterbein (W); Capital (W); Kenyon (L)

Assessment:  Good record.  Strong SoS that may dip some since last week but still will be above average.  And at least three ranked wins that look safe.  OWU will be highly motivated to win the NCAC tournament, but if Pool C is needed the Battling Bishops are in a pretty strong position unless they lose twice to Denison in the next two weeks which could allow them to be edged out by Denison or one of the OAC teams.

Otterbein – 10-2-3 (6-0-1) – CWRU (L); W&L (T); OWU (L); Denison (W); Capital (W); ONU (T); JCU (W)

Assessment:  Don't look now but Otterbein quietly has run up to the top of the OAC with Mt Union still to play.  Above average record, probably above average SoS, but at the moment project for possibly only one ranked win, a couple of ranked draws, and two ranked losses.  Even though not regionally ranked last week they will be going forward, and a win over Mt Union could be enough without another ranked win in the OAC tourney (which may be possible to get without winning the OAC tourney).

Rose Hulman – 10-4-2 (6-1-1) – Wash U (L); North Central (L); Hope (L); ONU (W)

Assessment:  Not quite enough meat on the bone so RHIT will very likely need to win conference tournament (as they often do).

Overall analysis.....JCU, Mt Union, ONU, and probably Otterbein (especially if can get one more ranked win) all appear to be in pretty good shape and if selections were today it would be hard to keep any of them out.  Imo it is definitely possible that the OAC could get four teams in (and definitely at least 3).  As indicated above, imo CWRU still has some work to do.  The high SoS will make them very competitive.  Another ranked win might seal the deal (which could come from Denison and/or NYU being ranked in a couple of weeks) or with a win against one of the last three on schedule getting ranked.  Kenyon and OWU have very similar resumes.  OWU I'm sure will close with a higher SoS and perhaps one more ranked win, and then Kenyon (for now at least) owns the head to head.  So, imo, the seven most viable candidates, in alphabetical order, are likely CWRU, JCU, Kenyon, Mt Union, ONU, OWU, and Otterbein.  Denison and/or Capital could disrupt the above, but let's assume form holds.  That would mean one of the four OACs named and either OWU or Kenyon would be off the board, leaving five teams for Pool C consideration.  In deference to the OAC let's say at least two at large bids come from the remaining three OAC teams (which does seem quite likely).  That would leave CWRU, the 4th OAC team, and the loser of OWU/Kenyon (if that happens) vying for...how many remaining spots?  Normally I would guess there wouldn't be more than one more but remember that FW said there are two more Pool Cs this year than in previous years.  The latter leads me to think Region VII could get four Pool Cs (and I'm not sure five is inconceivable especially if there is more weakness than usual out of, say, Regions II and IV (or any others).

[PaulNewman]

Massive match in the OAC tonight as John Carroll travels to Mt Union.  JCU is looking to rebound and reassert itself as a legitimate top tier national contender.  Mt Union is still a bit of an enigma -- on this site (and especially for Eastcoasters) -- probably best known as SC's alma mater and "a football school."  The Purple Raiders are having perhaps their greatest season ever with back to back chances to enhance the resume further....JCU tonight and then Otterbein on Saturday.  Mt Union reminds me a little of Carleton...stellar campaigns but still with a lot to prove.  Would be fantastic if a few with knowledge of the top four in the OAC, their style of play, and key players to watch shared some insights and commentary.

In the NCAC, Denison has really stumbled (losing to Wooster last night at "historic Columbus Crew Stadium") and now must beat OWU (at Roy Rike) on Saturday to avoid dropping to 4th in the conference.  Perhaps they will prefer facing Kenyon first but in any case Big Red hopes for a Pool C are almost certainly dashed and so they will have to beat their two rivals back to back again to get an AQ.  The other thing is that teams holding a win over Denison will be negatively impacted by their recent slide, losing a valuable "ranked win."  Wooster travels to DePauw Saturday with high stakes.  The winner may rise to 3rd in the conference but the loser will find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture.

[SimpleCoach]

Massive match in the OAC tonight as John Carroll travels to Mt Union.  JCU is looking to rebound and reassert itself as a legitimate top tier national contender.  Mt Union is still a bit of an enigma -- on this site (and especially for Eastcoasters) -- probably best known as SC's alma mater and "a football school."  The Purple Raiders are having perhaps their greatest season ever with back to back chances to enhance the resume further...

Fact.  Most wins in a season before being broken this year?  2003 and 2018.  Who was an Assistant in 2003?  You guessed it. 
SC.