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Started by PaulNewman, September 17, 2021, 04:32:05 PM

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PaulNewman

Quote from: stlawus on September 17, 2022, 07:40:23 PM
What's going on with OWU?  They're about to be winless through 6 games.  When is the last time that happened?

1927...

But they'll end up winning the NCAC tourney and snagging AQ.

PaulNewman

So here's more for why you absolutely don't schedule Muskingum.  I used to think Kenyon had bad luck as each year they have to sweat out the SoS at the end more than would be expected at the start of the season.  But once you factor in a couple of 1-15, 2-15 teams (like Muskingum and Hiram), you can't absorb other teams unexpectedly having horrible seasons.  Centre lost to friggin Brevard.  Brevard!  I didn't even know there was a Brevard College in D3 and I'm from North Carolina.  So after drawing with DePauw today Centre, in the Final 4 just two seasons ago, is 0-4-2....same as OWU, who of course also is on the Kenyon schedule, and could be that Denison is the only team in the NCAC that actually helps the SoS.  Throw in Spalding and a couple of the OACs on the schedule landing below .500 and you've got real trouble.

Domino1195

Per the latest coach's poll: Case has one "signature" win over Otterbein, draws against OWU and JCU. Maybe that win puts them above 7-2 Wabash (no significant opponents beaten), but I think ONU at 4-2 - losses at Kenyon and at home vs North Park, wins home vs OWU, Oberlin, and K-Zoo, at Hanover - is more deserving of a spot in the rankings.  Much more competitive pre conference schedule than most GL teams.

The most over-ranked team - CMU - will be lucky to see an SOS above .425 with their preseason schedule. As the soccer gods would have it, CMU is at ONU on Sunday the 25th. ONU also has RH at home on Sat the 24th: their preseason fortunes (and possible at-large bid) are in their hands.

Another team off to a great start and with tough games this week: Denison. Nothing like having a bullseye out on your back with a national ranking of 16 before playing JCU at home tomorrow, away at Wilmington and away next Wednesday at Otterbein.  From what I've seen - style of play - the JCU and Otterbein and Denison are eventually matched. Games will most likely boil down to: which team makes the fewest mistakes.

Denison at this five minutes might have the best chance for an at-large bid should they not win the NCAC. Kenyon, with a win vs Case and maybe 1-2 losses in conference, would also be in consideration.
DePauw and Wabash bear watching but I think they'll need the AQ to go to the NCAA. OWU has only one chance - AQ.

Per OWU : gives up a pinball goal in the area, off a throw, at ONU; gives up a penetrating dribble from near midfield and a shot from 22-25 yards out - near post - for the first JCU goal, runner to the near post heads in a corner a minute later. Of the goals conceded, OWU is making too many mistakes in the defensive third.

The OAC will be interesting. There are 5 teams that could win the conference, with no guarantee that the conference winner gets the AQ. Otterbein's wins to date may be not as impressive - depending how Transy and Hanover do for  the rest of the year. They are playing very well - strong first half against Transy. I like how they start games on the front foot - Case, Transy.  They need to play a full 90 minutes. At OWU tomorrow - going to be the closest we've come to 90 degrees in about 5 weeks.  Mount Union and JCU are enigmas - or a box of chocolates - they should be in the top four with Bein and ONU. Wilmington and Marietta could also challenge for a top 4 spot - but these 6 are my leading candidates for the OAC tourney as of this moment. Capital might challenge for the 6th spot along with BW - Capital is very young - 3 seniors, only one who plays (when fit). Using a lot of Soph's and Freshman right now; still learning.

Marietta - has Kenyon and PSU-B before conference - very likely 0-2 in these games.
JCU - at Denison and PSU-B, home vs Calvin. If they win 2 of these games - I'll be super impressed.
MTU - still don't know how they lost a 3-1 lead vs Franciscan, and with Bethany and Wooster remaining: they should win both, or tie?
Wilmington has Denison next week; they just might put 9 up against MT. St. Joe on Thursday.

Domino1195

Weather impacts on schedule tonight. So far, Cap/Oberlin canceled, Denison/JCU, Bein/OWU and Wilmington/MSJ moved to tomorrow. All other games are "on" at this moment

midwest

Thx for the update -- now I need a new procrastination/work avoidance technique since I was going to have Denison vs. JCU on tonight in the background while I work . . ..

Domino1195

I believe Kenyon/Marietta is still a go - if you can bear watching night games on that dark blue turf. Very disconcerting . . .

https://boxcast.tv/view/mens-soccer-marietta-vs-kenyon-t4xykjoo9ef0sibhgeiz

midwest

Makes sense that a different weather pattern in Marietta -- it is not close to anything!

Domino1195

The free-flowing, one touch attacking play from Kenyon that I mentioned previously was excellently executed last night. All you need to do is watch the first 10 minutes when they went up 2-0 (could have been more). Their style of play is so much different than any other GL team. Marietta did give them too much respect - said another way: did not press the ball and allowed more freedom of movement than they should have. If you want to beat Kenyon you're going to have to play with much more intensity and physicality.

Forget to mention Otterbein's DFK prowess: they have scored twice directly on DFK's from 20-25 yards out. Two different players too - a left and right-footed player. See the goal at Case and second goal vs Transy. Not sure which central Ohio game I'll attend tonight - both are intriguing!

Domino1195

Denison playing on their home grass field for the first time this year. Missing the CR at the start of the game - don't think they'll start with two officials

camosfan

Denison playing on their home grass field for the first time this year. Missing the CR at the start of the game - don't think they'll start with two officials


do you need to subscribe to watch?

Domino1195

Sorry - just seeing this at half.

https://www.northcoastnetwork.com/denison/

JCU dominating possession - got a rebound off a deflected shot for their goal.
Denison has made halftime adjustments the last four games where they trailed 1-0.  JCU is large - I mean they could put together a basketball team from this squad. Interesting that Denison has tried several route 1 balls to get a 1v 1 with their CB. Denison hasn't had any real wing play to challenge the ability of these big backs to stay with pacy forwards

Domino1195

JCU did enough to secure the win, but after the 70th minute Denison had the better of play and possession. Combination of Denison's resolve to find the leveler and JCU pulling back a bit. If JCU plays a full 90 minute game they are the second best team in the GL. The interplay of 21 and 4 up top, the steady influence of 22 controlling the midfield - these players stood out to me - not to slight the others out there. Looking forward to their OAC games against Bein and ONU (Oct 15 home vs ONU, Oct 19 at Bein).

Denison almost gets the equalizer off a late corner - shot just goes wide right. #22 is a special player for this team - a workhorse who wins the ball back and maintains possession in tight spots. They need to guard against a flat performance at Wilmington on Saturday, where Kenyon escaped with a 1-0 win.

Domino1195

And I take back every comment about defensive mistakes I've seen from GL players. What a gutless, lifeless effort from the US today. Even coach Glen from Letterkenny wouldn't have the energy to kick the trash can , which is where our team belongs.

PaulNewman

Watched almost all of JCU vs Denison.  Very important win for the Blue Streaks that may be needed at selection time.  I thought JCU started the 2nd half strong looking to get a 2nd goal and they almost did, but as the half wore on I thought they hunkered down too much and were almost begging Denison to get an equalizer.  Multiple good half-chances and JCU looked especially shaky defending corners.  Denison imo is relying too heavily on Miracle (#21) who has emerged as their leader and most dangerous attacking player.  He basically stayed up as high as possible hunting chances, and on another day luck might have been served up a loose ball around the six with an open net.  He saved the Big Red the last two or three games so a fourth was a lot to ask.  Denison imo is right there and could beat almost anyone but I still don't think they're quite ready to beat several very good teams in a row.

Kenyon versus Marietta showed a glimpse of what they can be, especially the first 10-15 minutes.  I don't love (and I've said this in years past) how they get a team pinned in for several minutes at a time with the outside backs way, way up which leaves them highly vulnerable to counters and which I think equal teams could expose.  I do not like their look when they suddenly are in scramble mode, which iirc is what burned them on the late GW for Messiah last year.  Anyway, the overall talent and depth are there and the Owls should be a contender IF they can get and stay relatively healthy.  For whatever reason Martinez doesn't look quite as dynamic and they've got to have Muther available.

I have no idea what to make of Otterbein @ OWU not being played this week and possibly cancelled.  That was a big game for both teams and I wonder what the story is and who benefitted most by not playing.  Can a team decline to play or res-schedule if they have a turf field available? Like insisting it's our grass field or bust? 

Kuiper

Quote from: PaulNewman on September 23, 2022, 10:51:29 AM
I have no idea what to make of Otterbein @ OWU not being played this week and possibly cancelled.  That was a big game for both teams and I wonder what the story is and who benefitted most by not playing.  Can a team decline to play or res-schedule if they have a turf field available? Like insisting it's our grass field or bust?

From a purely legal perspective, I would be shocked if a contractual agreement to play a non-conference game has a same-season specific performance clause when a game is postponed because of an Act of God situation.  At most, the parties would be obligated to use their best efforts to reschedule, but that may include for a future season.  Even if one party cancelled in breach of the contract (i.e., because of something in their control), it seems more likely that there is a clause of the contract requiring that the cancelling school reimburse the other school for any costs incurred, rather than being required to find another open date on the calendar before the end of the season. 

From a less legal and more practical perspective, coaches and ADs are repeat players and they don't want to get sideways with another school in their region, both because they want to preserve their relationship with that school and they don't want to develop a bad reputation with other schools who might think twice about scheduling them in the future.  So, most try to be accommodating if possible.  If they aren't rescheduling, chances are the school saying no has a plausible enough reason that the other team doesn't feel like pressing the matter further.  They just will be less likely to schedule that team in the future.