D3Boards.Com Soccer Top 20 Fan Poll

[PaulNewman]

I had 22 out of the 25, and for the most part placement was very close to the group poll results.  Biggest differences is that I had Clarkson and Gettysburg but barely in at 24 and 25 and just as easily could have slotted in Catholic and/or Luther and several others.  I don't really get Cortland but Cortland got in because of two high votes...I'm not sure I could have separated Cortland from JCU, CWRU, Babson, UR, etc (other teams with high to very high SoS in the 6-3-1, 5-2-2 ranges).  For me inclusion of Williams feels a little premature.  Teams in my vote that did not make it were SLU at 19, Otterbein at 21, and Skidmore at 23.

A few teams I felt I was rating too highly but I had no one (in my mind) to go in front of them...Midd at 11, Amherst at 12, Willamette at 13, St Thomas at 14, GAC at 15, etc...

Oh, and my top five were Chicago, Messiah, Kenyon, Hopkins, Stevens.  Second five Hamilton, W&L, Calvin, NPU, Wesleyan.

[Hopkins92]

Of the Region 4 and 5 teams I'm tracking, Catholic is about as whack-a-do as it comes. Ties against Montclair, Gettysburg and Stevenson, and just a true outlier of a loss to Eastern. Then they go on the road this weekend and absolutely wreck the Rangers. That game was 4-0 before Drew got on the board in the 80th minute.

[Gregory Sager]

Some thoughts on the Poll this week.

Only 1 vote on the first 7 teams is outside the top 10, that's a 14 for Hamilton.

The first team with only 6 of 7 voters is Amherst at 11.

But the largest vote disparity in the Poll belongs to Middlebury, who has a vote disparity of 8-NR. Middlebury, jumping up 9 spots, made the biggest move this week up.

In fact, Middlebury has two NR ballot results, which makes it even more striking.

Conn College dropping from 12 to out had the biggest drop this week.

In my opinion, what we're seeing really isn't NESCAC fatigue, it's NESCAC bewilderment. That league is cannibalizing itself so much that it's difficult to get a read on which NESCACers to put on your ballot and which NESCACers to leave off. Heck, I put six of 'em on my ballot this week, and I'm still not certain that I'm reading the NESCAC tea leaves properly.

I guess that you could put the nine NESCAC teams that aren't Bates or Trinity (CT) on your ballot, but then over a third of your ballot is devoted to one single league ... and at that point it becomes a choice of either dumping your ballot and starting over again due to NESCAC fatigue or submitting it as is due to (arguably) NESCAC sycophancy.

Gettysburg is the first team where all votes are actually lower than where they ended up in the poll. Highest single vote is 18, total votes puts them at 16.

Nope. Gettysburg got a #12.

The last team with 7 of 7 voters is St. Thomas (TX) again at 17. We all agree St. Thomas belongs, we just like where they are at apparently because they didn't move at all from when they had all 7 of us agreeing last week.

The Celts appear to be an anomalous oasis of concurrence amidst the turmoil of determining 11-25.

Cortland State is the team with the least agreement. They have two votes hovering around 10, but only those 2 votes, leaving them at 24th overall.

The NESCAC has 6 teams in the top 25 and 2 more RV.

14 teams are RV, down one from last week.

I think that we have to take it on faith that a lot of the wild disparity in balloting outside of the top ten -- just look at the precipitous drop in point totals between Calvin and Wesleyan tied at ninth (117) and Amherst in eleventh (71) -- has to do with the fact that we don't have a lot of participants in the polls. The more pollsters, the flatter the spread of ballots.

The important thing, I think, is that there is very clear consensus on the top ten, at least for now.

[jknezek]

All interesting evaluations and corrections. Not sure how I missed that on Gettysburg.

The NESCAC has me feeling a bit at a loss. I feel like Hamilton and Wesleyan are not just getting the best results, but playing the best. Then you could have Amherst, Bowdoin, Conn, Middlebury, Tufts and Williams between 10 and no votes and it's completely justifiable. Which is why I put them in ABC order here.

I do think that if Amherst, Tufts and Conn switched records with Hamilton, Wesleyan and Williams, there would be 4 or 5 NESCAC teams under serious consideration instead of 8. I think the order of the names, and the history of the names of teams 6, 7 and 8 in the current conference standings, are getting a lot of benefit of the doubt for some less than stellar play and results recently.

[PaulNewman]

I love how the NESCAC always finds a way for all of us to continue making them a focus.  It's like the conference is embedded with an attention magnet.

I think most of us agree that a poll doesn't necessarily reflect who we may think are the biggest threats big picture, but I think it was bluejay who made a great point...whoever emerges out of the NESCAC (and I'd add could end up being teams that land in the #3-#6 range in the conference) will be a serious threat (and maybe even a favorite) to get to Salem, VA.  And obviously there could be more than one.

It's easy to forget that for Tufts' very first title in 2014 they were VERY fortunate to make the tournament at all with a very unattractive record of 9-5-2.  They didn't even host the first weekend as that honor went to Wheaton (MA).  Iirc, Tufts beat Dickinson and then Wheaton.  Next was Muhlenberg.  So not the toughest road up to the historic clash with Messiah in the Elite 8.    Pretty much the same story in 2016...less than stellar record with no guarantee of getting a bid, get a bit of luck hosting the sectional, and the rest is history.  Their records for the 3rd and 4th titles were stellar, with the 2018 champs undefeated.

[Hopkins92]

I don't want to annoy anyone, but the NESCAC:D3Soccer::SEC:D1Football

Not a criticism, just an observation.

[College Soccer Observer]

1   Chicago
2   Messiah
3   Kenyon
4   Stevens
5   Hamilton
6   Johns Hopkins
7   North Park
8   Wesleyan
9   Calvin
10   Montclair State
11   Williams
12   Middlebury
13   Bowdoin
14   Washington and Lee
15   Amherst
16   Clarkson
17   Oneonta State
18   Gettysburg
19   St. Thomas (Texas)
20   Gustavus Adolphus
21   Sewanee
22   Willamette
23   Luther
24   Christopher Newport
25   Franklin and Marshall

Middlebury is an excellent example of the difficulty of doing this.  They lost to Hamilton in a game they largely controlled.  Tied Amherst @ Amherst in a game where it was at least 50/50.  Tied Bowdoin at Bowdoin in a game where it was a back and forth affair.  Midd was a header off the post away from being up 2-0 inside the first 30 minutes.  Beat Wesleyan @ Wesleyan in a game where their goalkeeper stole them three points.

I feel like there is parity across the country this year.  Top 9 were easy for me.  10 down got very difficult.

[4samuy]

Hopkins,

IMO that's a great equivalence.  The question I would throw out is who is the Alabama, who's seems to be in college final four every year.  A few years ago it would have been Tufts, but now I'm trying to figure that one out.

[PaulNewman]

I love how the NESCAC always finds a way for all of us to continue making them a focus.  It's like the conference is embedded with an attention magnet.

I think most of us agree that a poll doesn't necessarily reflect who we may think are the biggest threats big picture, but I think it was bluejay who made a great point...whoever emerges out of the NESCAC (and I'd add could end up being teams that land in the #3-#6 range in the conference) will be a serious threat (and maybe even a favorite) to get to Salem, VA.  And obviously there could be more than one.

It's easy to forget that for Tufts' very first title in 2014 they were VERY fortunate to make the tournament at all with a very unattractive record of 9-5-2.  They didn't even host the first weekend as that honor went to Wheaton (MA).  Iirc, Tufts beat Dickinson and then Wheaton.  Next was Muhlenberg.  So not the toughest road up to the historic clash with Messiah in the Elite 8.    Pretty much the same story in 2016...less than stellar record with no guarantee of getting a bid, get a bit of luck hosting the sectional, and the rest is history.  Their records for the 3rd and 4th titles were stellar, with the 2018 champs undefeated.

Correction on Tufts....2014 entered tournament at 10-2-4 (champs), 2015 entered at 9-5-2 (lost Sweet 16), 2016 entered also at 9-5-2 (champs).  All three of those years unranked, ranked in 20s, or RV in the last poll entering tournament.

[Hopkins92]

Hopkins,

IMO that's a great equivalence.  The question I would throw out is who is the Alabama, who's seems to be in college final four every year.  A few years ago it would have been Tufts, but now I'm trying to figure that one out.

Yeah, that's where the analogy kind of falls apart a bit. Totally agree it was Tufts, but... maybe (and I don't mean to be morbid) but it's kind of like the SEC once Nick Saban retires. There's going to be a flattening in that league in the next 10 years.

[PaulNewman]

Hopkins,

IMO that's a great equivalence.  The question I would throw out is who is the Alabama, who's seems to be in college final four every year.  A few years ago it would have been Tufts, but now I'm trying to figure that one out.

Yeah, that's where the analogy kind of falls apart a bit. Totally agree it was Tufts, but... maybe (and I don't mean to be morbid) but it's kind of like the SEC once Nick Saban retires. There's going to be a flattening in that league in the next 10 years.

This is where I think the SEC and NESCAC have some cultural similarities.  Alums, many students, and players have an intense identification with their schools and there are even some similarities in the elitism of each (allowing for pecularities of Southern elitism and New England elitism).  The SEC culture of top level athletics mixed with the fraternity/debutante scene will continue to flourish. 

But as for a comparative for Alabama, that's Messiah...and it's not close  .  Tufts and Amherst are Clemson and Georgia.

[4samuy]

Pn

I was trying to stay on the topic that Hopkins posted, which comparing a power division 3 soccer conference to a power division 1 football conference and how they beat each other up in their respective conference.  I have a ton of respect for the messiah program and the success that they've had as a top program, but I didn't want to involve the MACC in the conversation.   

[jknezek]

D3Boards.com Soccer Fan Poll Games as of 10/9/2022

National Top 25

Rank		School			Points		Weekly Change		Voter Breakdown
1		Chicago (6)			198		0		1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1
2		Messiah (2)			194		0		2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2
3		Kenyon			180		0		3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 5
4		Calvin			164		5		8, 4, 5, 3, 4, 4, 8, 8
5		Stevens			162		-1		4, 7, 3, 6, 9, 5, 6, 6
6		Johns Hopkins			159		-1		6, 10, 6, 7, 7, 6, 4, 3
7		North Park			157		0		7, 5, 10, 5, 5, 7, 5, 7
8		Hamilton			137		-2		5, 6, 11, 11, 17, 10, 7, 4
9		Washington and Lee			127		-1		10, 9, 7, 9, 8, 9, 9, 20
10		Middlebury			122		2		15, 13, 8, 10, 6, 8, 14, 12
11		Amherst			119		0		9, 8, 12, 8, 12, 15, 10, 15
12		Bowdoin			96		9		18, 12, 22, 12, 11, 14, 13, 10
13		Montclair State			92		5		20, 16, 16, 14, 10, 12, 11, 17
14		Franklin and Marshall			80		9		14, 17, 19, 15, 18, 19, 15, 11
15		Gustavus Adolphus			75		0		19, 11, 13, 16, 16, 18, 14
16		Willamette			74		3		16, 14, 16, 14, 13, 9
17		Carnegie Mellon			70		---		24, 15, 15, 17, 20, 17, 17, 13
18		Gettysburg			58		-2		11, 18, 18, 22, 20, 16, 19
19		Cortland State			48		5		9, 15, 11, 21
20		Lynchburg			47		---		12, 21, 20, 12, 18
21		Christopher Newport			37		---		22, 22, 17, 21, 25, 18, 20
22		Babson			35		---		17, 20, 20, 19, 24, 25, 22
23		Western Connecticut			29		---		19, 23, 22, 22, 19, 22
24		North Central (IL)			23		---		23, 18, 23, 21, 25, 23
T25		Luther			18		-3		21, 13
T25		Rochester			18				13, 21

Also Receiving Votes:
Brockport State (17) , Pacific Lutheran (17) , Clarkson (14) , St. Lawrence (8) , Case Western Reserve (5) , Drew (5) , Tufts (5) , Connecticut College (4) , Mary Hardin-Baylor (3) , Occidental (2) , MSOE (1)

Newly Ranked: Carnegie Mellon, Lynchburg, Christopher Newport, Babson, Western Connecticut, North Central (IL), Rochester
Dropped Out: Wesleyan (Prev:9), Clarkson (Prev:13), Oneonta State (Prev:14), St. Thomas (TX) (Prev:17), UW-Eau Claire (Prev:20), Williams (Prev:25)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 25 = 25th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, Paul Newman, jknezek, Mid-Atlantic Fan, Coach Jeff

[jknezek]

We picked up a new voter this week. Welcome Coach Jeff, who has many years of D3 experience and will be an excellent addition to the boards and the poll.

Of note this week, the poll is congealing a bit, as we are down to only 11 teams Receiving Votes (though 2 teams tied for 25th, so there are actually 26 teams in the poll this week). Either way, there are 2 fewer teams top to bottom than last week.

The biggest drop is a NESCAC squad for the second week in a row, as Wesleyan drops from 9th to not appearing on a single ballot. Going 0-3-2 over your last 5 games can do that.

Hamilton at 8th has the first votes outside the top 10, as they sport a couple 11s and a 17.

The largest vote disparity is a tie between Cortland State and Willamette, who both have 9s and don't appear on some ballots. I'll give it to Cortland State, who only appears on 4 ballots while Willamette is on 6 ballots.

The largest jump up this week is a tie between Bowdoin and F&M who both move up 9 spots. The largest drop is the aforementioned Wesleyan, plummeting from 9 to Not Receiving Votes.

Gustavus Adolphus at 15 is the first team to appear on less than all 8 ballots, ending up one short.

Carnegie Mellon at 17 is the last team to appear on all 8 ballots.

Luther and Rochester tied for 25th appearing on 2 ballots. Both have two votes total, one vote at 21 and vote at 13. Very strange.

[PaulNewman]

PN's Ballot Poll (10/9/22)


1)  Chicago
2)  Messiah
3)  Kenyon
4)  Calvin
5)  North Park
6)  Middlebury
7)  Johns Hopkins
8)  W&L
9)  Stevens
10) Montclair St
11) Bowdoin
12) Amherst
13) Brockport St
14) Willamette
15) Cortland St
16) GAC
17) Hamilton
18) F&M
19) SLU
20) Carnegie Mellon
21) CWRU
22) Gettysburg
23) North Central
24) Babson
25) Christopher Newport

I highlighted significant divergencies from group poll.

In comparison to results of full poll, I did not have Lynchburg, Western CT, Luther, or UR....instead preferring Brockport, SLU, and CWRU.  Strongly considered Lynchburg and Pac Luth as the last few and next 5-10 seem pretty interchangeable.