D3Boards.Com Soccer Top 20 Fan Poll

[jknezek]

So, on my ballot for d3soccer.com I can only submit 25 teams. With 2 teams tied at 25, one had to be left off. My normal rule for tie breaking is to go with the highest single vote, then most appearances on ballots. But both teams had two voters list them, and both had one vote at 13 and one vote at 21. So my normal tie breakers failed. Therefore Luther got in for having more wins than Rochester. Not sure that's fair, but the line needed to be drawn and I drew it! Sorry Rochester.

[Coach Jeff]

Thanks for sharing you jknezek SoS  or jknezek rating scale not to be confused with massey rating

[Gregory Sager]

So, on my ballot for d3soccer.com I can only submit 25 teams. With 2 teams tied at 25, one had to be left off. My normal rule for tie breaking is to go with the highest single vote, then most appearances on ballots. But both teams had two voters list them, and both had one vote at 13 and one vote at 21. So my normal tie breakers failed. Therefore Luther got in for having more wins than Rochester. Not sure that's fair, but the line needed to be drawn and I drew it! Sorry Rochester.

It's better than saying that you chose between them alphabetically, even though that would've led to the same result.

[jknezek]

So, on my ballot for d3soccer.com I can only submit 25 teams. With 2 teams tied at 25, one had to be left off. My normal rule for tie breaking is to go with the highest single vote, then most appearances on ballots. But both teams had two voters list them, and both had one vote at 13 and one vote at 21. So my normal tie breakers failed. Therefore Luther got in for having more wins than Rochester. Not sure that's fair, but the line needed to be drawn and I drew it! Sorry Rochester.

It's better than saying that you chose between them alphabetically, even though that would've led to the same result.

Yep. My 3 thoughts were most wins, toughest SoS, and most goals scored. 2 were marginally harder to find, so I went with the easy one. Bormally I wouldn't feel bad. 15 vs. 16 in the poll is irrelevant to me. But in versus out? Well... I felt a bit bad.

[Gregory Sager]

You also could've pushed the soccer stuff aside and gone with "least scary local cuisine." Traditional Norwegian lutefisk from Ruby's Café in Decorah, or that Rochacha classic, the "garbage plate" from Nick Tahou Hots in the Flower City? That's a much more interesting barometer, although it might be a bit harder to explain with a straight face to Christan and Jim.

[Ejay]

20 of my top 22 ended up within 3 or less places from the group poll. The outliers were Hopkins who I had at 10 vs. 6 from the group, and Gustavus Adolphus who I had at 11 vs. 15 from the group. My final 3 spots (23-25) didn't make the group poll but honestly, you could probably put 15 different teams in 23-25.

I really struggle with Hopkins.  One the one hand I want to rank them high because they haven't lost yet and they've played a decent schedule. On the other hand, I want to drop them because they're just not putting teams away - even bad ones. 7 of their 9 wins are by the score of 1-0, and they other two wins were 2-0. Does the fact they're finding a way to win/not lose these close games mean they're a good team, or a lucky team?

Same goes for Lynchburg.  I have them at 21. They're 7-0-5 on a decent schedule having tied Messiah and W&L. And compared to Hopkins, they've put some teams away with multiple 4-6 goal victories. But they haven't really won a good game yet which is why I couldn't push them higher yet. 

[PaulNewman]

^^^^Similar struggles here.  A lot of the highly ranked teams suffered draws (or worse) so for me it was a question of how to evaluate the various draws and how much to knock teams for having them.  That's why I moved up Calvin and NPU to #4 and #5.  I dropped Hopkins to #7 because W&L and Stevens also drew (W&L twice but against strong teams).  I knocked Stevens to #9 because of a weak draw imo followed by a 1-0 win over Wilkes.  Hamilton is the surprise for me compared to other voters...two draws AT HOME versus two of the three NESCACs currently out of the playoff picture...so I felt they deserved a bigger drop.  I would have dropped Kenyon except the teams right behind them also had draws and imo the Hopkins and Stevens draws did not match Kenyon draw and a win (albeit tight) on the road against a pretty good Wabash squad.  I couldn't quite convince myself to put Calvin, NPU, or Midd at 3.  Midd at 6 feels very high, but again, someone had to slot in there.

[Coach Jeff]

I agreed without of the top 25 but this one is a little confusing.  So just a quick question about this weeks rankings not sure how Wesleyan 6-3-2 gets in the top 25 with teams that have the same SoS and better overall records are not in.  I understand they play in the NESCAC.  They had two losses to Tufts(#25 at the time who is not having a great season by their standards) and to Middlebury.  Their loss to Coast Guard is a tough one to not consider.  John Carroll 8-3-1 their 3 losses came to 3 teams that are still in the top 25 Kenyon#3, Calvin#7 and Carnegie Mellon #17.  Just a question

[jknezek]

I agreed without of the top 25 but this one is a little confusing.  So just a quick question about this weeks rankings not sure how Wesleyan 6-3-2 gets in the top 25 with teams that have the same SoS and better overall records are not in.  I understand they play in the NESCAC.  They had two losses to Tufts(#25 at the time who is not having a great season by their standards) and to Middlebury.  Their loss to Coast Guard is a tough one to not consider.  John Carroll 8-3-1 their 3 losses came to 3 teams that are still in the top 25 Kenyon#3, Calvin#7 and Carnegie Mellon #17.  Just a question

Wesleyan isn't in the fan poll. But... they were very highly ranked just 2 weeks ago, and inside the top 10 last week. Wesleyan was our biggest drop, from 9 to not even receiving votes. Others will have a harder time, especially for a NESCAC team, pulling that kind of trigger in one week. Doesn't make it right, but it is human nature.

[Hopkins92]

Not to put my thumb on the scales for Hopkins, but more just because I've watched them a good deal this season... And apologies for those that are on threads that have seen this review a number of times:

They are a very good team. They try to wear you down with possession and their defense is just incredibly difficult to breakdown. They have a borderline AA center back (Treinan) and a goalie that transferred in from a D1 program (I think Penn St.*) who answers the call when tested. On offense, they try to triangle pass you into confusion and spring someone into the box. Very often, once that guy gets in the box, instead of shooting or crossing across the face of the goal, they pull up and look back to the 18 to start another passing sequence. It can be, quite frankly, maddening to watch. But it typically yields them a goal.

Once they get that goal, they are very content to keep possession and drive the other team crazy with chasing. But, as has been noted, all it takes is one break for the opposition and then Hop is on the back foot. They just aren't built for #chaosball that is sometimes necessary to pull a result late in games.

I feel like just inside the top 10 is fair/accurate.

(* - Yeah, Alex Morgret started at St. Francis, then spent 2 years at PSU... He's a grad transfer to Hop.)

[jknezek]

D3Boards.com Soccer Fan Poll Games as of 10/16/2022

National Top 25

Rank		School			Points		Weekly Change		Voter Breakdown
1		Chicago (6)			198		0		1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1
2		Messiah (2)			194		0		2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2
3		Kenyon			182		0		3, 3, 5, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3
4		Johns Hopkins			168		2		5, 4, 6, 5, 6, 5, 4, 5
5		Stevens			167		0		4, 5, 3, 4, 8, 7, 6, 4
6		Calvin			163		-2		7, 6, 4, 6, 4, 4, 7, 7
7		North Park			152		0		6, 7, 10, 7, 7, 8, 5, 6
8		Middlebury			145		2		8, 9, 7, 8, 5, 6, 11, 9
9		Amherst			126		2		9, 8, 12, 9, 11, 13, 8, 12
T10		Bowdoin			115		2		10, 10, 21, 10, 9, 12, 10, 11
T10		Montclair State			115		3		15, 11, 11, 13, 10, 11, 9, 13
12		Washington and Lee			113		-3		11, 13, 9, 14, 12, 9, 13, 14
13		Gustavus Adolphus			92		2		13, 12, 12, 16, 14, 15, 8
14		Lynchburg			83		6		12, 15, 17, 19, 15, 16, 14, 17
15		Cortland State			80		4		19, 16, 8, 21, 13, 10, 20, 21
16		Christopher Newport			79		5		16, 14, 13, 15, 19, 15, 18, 19
17		North Central (IL)			76		7		20, 17, 16, 17, 14, 17, 16, 15
18		Hamilton			64		-10		23, 24, 14, 11, 24, 12, 10
19		Franklin and Marshall			47		-5		18, 25, 19, 16, 21, 18, 18
20		Western Connecticut			35		3		23, 18, 25, 22, 17, 16
21		Ohio Northern			30		---		22, 18, 17, 21, 22
22		Willamette			29		-6		25, 20, 18, 23, 22, 19
23		Mary Washington			22		---		17, 19, 20
24		Rochester			18		1		14, 20
T25		Mary Hardin-Baylor			17		---		22, 22, 20, 24, 25
T25		Pacific Lutheran			17				21, 23, 19, 24

Also Receiving Votes:
Clarkson (11) , Oneonta State (9) , Luther (8) , John Carroll (6) , Rose-Hulman (5) , St. Lawrence (5) , Tufts (5) , UW-Platteville (5) , Babson (4) , Carnegie Mellon (2) , MSOE (2) , St. Thomas (TX) (2) , Connecticut College (1) , Gettysburg (1) , Trinity (TX) (1)

Newly Ranked: Ohio Northern, Mary Washington, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Pacific Lutheran
Dropped Out: Carnegie Mellon (Prev:17), Gettysburg (Prev:18), Babson (Prev:22), Luther (Prev:25)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 25 = 25th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, Paul Newman, jknezek, Mid-Atlantic Fan, Coach Jeff

[jknezek]

Of note this week. We jumped up to 15 teams in the RV category, with 2 teams once again tied at 25th. So for the first time this season there was more dispersion at the bottom this week than the previous week.

For the third week in a row the biggest drop belongs to a NESCAC school. This week the Golden Plummet goes to Hamilton, dropping 10 spots. Going 0-1-2 over your last 3 can do that.

The largest vote disparity belongs to Gustavus Adolphus (13), ranked 8th on one ballot but unranked on one ballot as well. For the second week in a row, they are also the first team not appearing on all 8 ballots.

North Central (IL) was the biggest positive mover this week, jumping up 7 spots to 17th. They are also the last team to appear on all 8 ballots.

The top 3 teams have a huge amount of consensus, with Kenyon getting the only vote outside the top 3 with a single 5 vote. Stevens got the last 3rd place vote.

Rochester made the poll appearing on the fewest ballots, only 2.

4 NESCAC schools made the poll, with three sitting at 8, 9 and T10. 2 more are in the RV category.

Once again we have 2 schools tied for 25th. Pac Lu has the highest vote, 19th, and will be the 25th team on the ballot to D3 soccer.

Similarly, Bowdoin will go to the D3 Soccer Poll in 10th since they have multiple 10th place votes trumping Montclair State's single 10th place vote. Both teams have one 9th place vote that cancels out. Montclair State will go on the ballot at 11.

[camosfan]

Amherst above Bowdoin, they are in the same conference: W&L above Lynchburg again in the same league/conference with common opponent?  Seems some teams are judged on current  record while others are based on other factors.

[jknezek]

Amherst above Bowdoin, they are in the same conference: W&L above Lynchburg again in the same league/conference with common opponent?  Seems some teams are judged on current  record while others are based on other factors.

If you actually watched the W&L at Lynchburg game I'm not sure you'd feel so confident saying Lynchburg should be higher than W&L. W&L took it to them, the ball just didn't go in, and that's reflected in the stats. W&L had 20 shots, 10 on goal to Lynchburg's 6 shots, 3 on goal. And that really was reflective of how the game went. But Lynchburg scored first and W&L got an equalizer late, and that's soccer. It's got to go in, and they each got one. But W&L was better on the field, just not better in the result.

[camosfan]

What about both against Messiah?