D3Boards.Com Soccer Top 20 Fan Poll

[jknezek]

What about both against Messiah?

Game 1 was definitely an eye opener. Messiah had something to prove after the playoffs and W&L got steamrolled by a better team. Lynchburg did a very good job tying that team up the next day. But game 1 was a long time ago. And if I'm comparing teams, and have a recent head to head to look at versus a common opponent 6 weeks ago, I'd rather do the recent head to head. The head to head ended in a tie, but like I said, when you watch the game, it was apparent to me which team was better.

To be fair, if I was going to use common opponents, I'd use Va Wes more than Messiah. It's more recent and had fewer subcurrents. And there W&L tied, Lynchburg won. So that's a mark in Lynchburg's favor. But I have a hard time not looking at the h2h. W&L was just better. And not a little better, they were a lot better. Soccer is funny that way. The better team, even the lot better team, doesn't always get the result.

There are a lot of ways to put together a poll. It's a lot of opinion. If someone wanted to use conference standings I can accept that as a method. It wouldn't be my favorite, but at this point in the season, it's as legit as anything else.

[Coach Jeff]

Amherst above Bowdoin, they are in the same conference: W&L above Lynchburg again in the same league/conference with common opponent?  Seems some teams are judged on current  record while others are based on other factors.

Please join in next week and enter your top 25 poll.  The more we get the more those other factors will be found.  I do agree the W & L losing to Messiah and a draw with Lynchburg.  While Lynchburg(win% .821) Tied both Messiah(win% .964) and W & L(win% .786). 

Let take a look at the top 25 win % if was the only criteria to creating the Poll:
1. Chicago 1.000
2.Western Connecticut .969
3. Messiah .964
4. Kenyon .962
5. Stevens . 923
6. Johns Hopkins .898
7. Gustavus Adolphus . 896
8. North Park . 885
T9. Calvin and North Central (ill) .867
11. Pacific Lutheran .867
12. Willamette . 846 & RV Rose-Hulman
T13. Middlebury, Bowdoin, Montclair St, Mary Hardin Baylor & RV MSOE .833
17. Lynchburg . 821
T18.  Christopher Newport and Hamilton .792
20. W & L and RV UW- Platteville .786
RV Oneonta St .769
T21. Amherst, Cortland St, Ohio North U, and RV St Lawrence .750
RV Clarkson and CMU .731
RV Luther and Babson .714
RV John Carroll .679
T24 Mary Washington and Rochester (More votes without PAYWALL) and RV Trinity TX .667
RV Tufts and Gettysburg .654. 
RV Conn College .583 Barely .500 Common voters really. I know NESCAC and defending Champs.

Interesting comparison.

[camosfan]

Coach!
I don't really think polls are useful beyond a gage of public/fan sentiments, I give more weight to the rating service, since they are more consistent across the teams.

[PaulNewman]

What about both against Messiah?

I'm sorry but this is farcical.

By this logic we can prove that Clarks Summitt is 5 goals better than Messiah.  You just can't make comparisons like that so simplistically.  Do you think after waiting 8 mos or whatever to play W&L that Messiah was pretty pumped up?  And maybe significantly less so against Lynchburg on the come down from euphoria?  Lynchburg is a good team, mostly likely a NCAA team.  But even IF they are better the Messiah game contrast is not the method to prove it.

And you give rating services more credence?  Like what?  Does that mean Massey.

And the record % argument also is grossly fallible.  Someone mentioned Conn....Conn IS definitely in trouble but give their schedule to most of the current top 20 and all of them save Messiah and Chicago would have several losses/draws and at least a handful or more would have more blemishes than Conn.  Chicago and Messiah wouldn't be unblemished either.

[PaulNewman]

Aurora (never even heard of it until this year) tied Calvin and North Central but lost 2-1 to Illinois Wesleyan and 3-1 to Marian.  Marian lost to North Central 4-0 and Wisconsin Lutheran 5-0.  Wisconsin Lutheran lost 2-1 to Aurora.  We could do this all day. Wesleyan beat Tufts and lost to Coast Guard.  Should we conclude that Coast Guard is better than Tufts?

If all I consider above is the first sentence, should I conclude that Illinois Wes and Marian are better than Calvin and North Central?

[Coach Jeff]

Aurora (never even heard of it until this year) tied Calvin and North Central but lost 2-1 to Illinois Wesleyan and 3-1 to Marian.  Marian lost to North Central 4-0 and Wisconsin Lutheran 5-0.  Wisconsin Lutheran lost 2-1 to Aurora.  We could do this all day. Wesleyan beat Tufts and lost to Coast Guard.  Should we conclude that Coast Guard is better than Tufts?

If all I consider above is the first sentence, should I conclude that Illinois Wes and Marian are better than Calvin and North Central?

PN I think sometimes the Pollsters get so use to seeing the same names in the top 25 that they forget to look at teams that are having a great season not just great traditions or past.  Chicago, Messiah, Tufts, Amherst, etc will always get recognition because of who they are.  D3 soccer often has teams that have one great season and surprise teams in the NCAA tournament.  That is what is hard to figure out.  Everything included region, conference(strength or weaknes) SOS, Massey rating, win %, all need to go into the rankings.  It is hard for a regular fan to see every team and regions. Could you help us do a better job when doing our own polls?

[PaulNewman]

Aurora (never even heard of it until this year) tied Calvin and North Central but lost 2-1 to Illinois Wesleyan and 3-1 to Marian.  Marian lost to North Central 4-0 and Wisconsin Lutheran 5-0.  Wisconsin Lutheran lost 2-1 to Aurora.  We could do this all day. Wesleyan beat Tufts and lost to Coast Guard.  Should we conclude that Coast Guard is better than Tufts?

If all I consider above is the first sentence, should I conclude that Illinois Wes and Marian are better than Calvin and North Central?

PN I think sometimes the Pollsters get so use to seeing the same names in the top 25 that they forget to look at teams that are having a great season not just great traditions or past.  Chicago, Messiah, Tufts, Amherst, etc will always get recognition because of who they are.  D3 soccer often has teams that have one great season and surprise teams in the NCAA tournament.  That is what is hard to figure out.  Everything included region, conference(strength or weaknes) SOS, Massey rating, win %, all need to go into the rankings.  It is hard for a regular fan to see every team and regions. Could you help us do a better job when doing our own polls?

First, the post you're responding to (or at least quoted) was about the fallacy of determining who is better between W&L and Lynchburg based on their mutual opening weekend results with Messiah.  Yes, Lynchburg tied Messiah.  The Hornets also tied William Peace who W&L would likely pummel by 7 or 8 goals.

Secondly, what do you mean by helping us do a better job?  Like what would that entail from your pov?  What teams do you think we've missed so far?  I think the Fan Poll has been excellent.  There are usually a few differences between my ballot and the group result but imo 95% of the choices each week have been defensible and imo the poll has gotten more "accurate" each week.  The poll imo also has been very fair for the most part to unusual suspects having really strong seasons (UWEC, Western CT, Clarkson, Drew, etc) and it seems that at least most of us are trying to be vigilant about being fair to Region X and Region IX teams doing well.  I go through every single D3 down to at least the .500 level and I consider multiple factors.  I already spend up to 2 hours each week putting together my list for the week (on top of spending multiple more hours each week watching games, looking at results, etc), and remember, this is a FAN poll.  I'm not going to calculate every SoS and consult Massey on every pick.

And yes, some programs seem to get the benefit of the doubt in terms of how hard they get knocked after blemishes versus the fresh face with the gaudy record who just entered the rankings for the first time and now has picked up a couple of losses or a loss and a draw.  The latter team will make a quicker exit but not because or just because of reputation.  It's easy to conclude that decisions, including with the regional rankings to come, are based on reputation.  When you see a team with multiple or even a handful of blemishes ranked higher than a team that's 15-0-1 that won't be because of reputation. It will be because the first team has an SoS at .620 and the other at .515.  You can argue about how much the cmtes weight various factors but in general folks are trying to do the best job they can and trying to be as objective as possible.

Let's take Amherst since you mentioned them...not having a usual Amherst almost perfect season thus far, but that said, they've still only lost once.  But more importantly, imagine Amherst playing a 1st or 2nd round NCAA game against Western CT, Johnson & Wales, Drew, Clarkson, UWEC, etc. Which of those teams would you pick to win over Amherst?  Could there be an upset?  Sure. But that's the point...it would be an upset and in most of those examples a huge upset.  Which of those other teams can you picture winning six straight games in the tournament? 

[Coach Jeff]

Aurora (never even heard of it until this year) tied Calvin and North Central but lost 2-1 to Illinois Wesleyan and 3-1 to Marian.  Marian lost to North Central 4-0 and Wisconsin Lutheran 5-0.  Wisconsin Lutheran lost 2-1 to Aurora.  We could do this all day. Wesleyan beat Tufts and lost to Coast Guard.  Should we conclude that Coast Guard is better than Tufts?

If all I consider above is the first sentence, should I conclude that Illinois Wes and Marian are better than Calvin and North Central?

PN I think sometimes the Pollsters get so use to seeing the same names in the top 25 that they forget to look at teams that are having a great season not just great traditions or past.  Chicago, Messiah, Tufts, Amherst, etc will always get recognition because of who they are.  D3 soccer often has teams that have one great season and surprise teams in the NCAA tournament.  That is what is hard to figure out.  Everything included region, conference(strength or weaknes) SOS, Massey rating, win %, all need to go into the rankings.  It is hard for a regular fan to see every team and regions. Could you help us do a better job when doing our own polls?

First, the post you're responding to (or at least quoted) was about the fallacy of determining who is better between W&L and Lynchburg based on their mutual opening weekend results with Messiah.  Yes, Lynchburg tied Messiah.  The Hornets also tied William Peace who W&L would likely pummel by 7 or 8 goals.

Secondly, what do you mean by helping us do a better job?  Like what would that entail from your pov?  What teams do you think we've missed so far?  I think the Fan Poll has been excellent.  There are usually a few differences between my ballot and the group result but imo 95% of the choices each week have been defensible and imo the poll has gotten more "accurate" each week.  The poll imo also has been very fair for the most part to unusual suspects having really strong seasons (UWEC, Western CT, Clarkson, Drew, etc) and it seems that at least most of us are trying to be vigilant about being fair to Region X and Region IX teams doing well.  I go through every single D3 down to at least the .500 level and I consider multiple factors.  I already spend up to 2 hours each week putting together my list for the week (on top of spending multiple more hours each week watching games, looking at results, etc), and remember, this is a FAN poll.  I'm not going to calculate every SoS and consult Massey on every pick.

And yes, some programs seem to get the benefit of the doubt in terms of how hard they get knocked after blemishes versus the fresh face with the gaudy record who just entered the rankings for the first time and now has picked up a couple of losses or a loss and a draw.  The latter team will make a quicker exit but not because or just because of reputation.  It's easy to conclude that decisions, including with the regional rankings to come, are based on reputation.  When you see a team with multiple or even a handful of blemishes ranked higher than a team that's 15-0-1 that won't be because of reputation. It will be because the first team has an SoS at .620 and the other at .515.  You can argue about how much the cmtes weight various factors but in general folks are trying to do the best job they can and trying to be as objective as possible.

Let's take Amherst since you mentioned them...not having a usual Amherst almost perfect season thus far, but that said, they've still only lost once.  But more importantly, imagine Amherst playing a 1st or 2nd round NCAA game against Western CT, Johnson & Wales, Drew, Clarkson, UWEC, etc. Which of those teams would you pick to win over Amherst?  Could there be an upset?  Sure. But that's the point...it would be an upset and in most of those examples a huge upset.  Which of those other teams can you picture winning six straight games in the tournament?

I definitely agree with PN.  PN I knew you would be able to say it better than I could have.  Thanks for your insights.  That is why we play and watch the game, for tat one David v Goliath upset.  Not sure who it will be but there will be someone usually in the first weekend of games but sometimes like St. Peter's Peacocks in the NCAA march madness 22 make a bigger run.  We all enjoy stories like that.

[PaulNewman]

OK, Coach, my suspicion has been confirmed. You were hired by my enemies here to infiltrate the board to agitate and harass me.  Just kidding.

But seriously, if you have a shred of human decency and compassion, please NEVER mention the St. Peter's Peacocks again.

[Coach Jeff]

OK, Coach, my suspicion has been confirmed. You were hired by my enemies here to infiltrate the board to agitate and harass me.  Just kidding.

But seriously, if you have a shred of human decency and compassion, please NEVER mention the St. Peter's Peacocks again.

Sorry but my Bracket was busted by them as well.....Very BUSTED lol

[FBALLISLIFE]

What about both against Messiah?

Game 1 was definitely an eye opener. Messiah had something to prove after the playoffs and W&L got steamrolled by a better team. Lynchburg did a very good job tying that team up the next day. But game 1 was a long time ago. And if I'm comparing teams, and have a recent head to head to look at versus a common opponent 6 weeks ago, I'd rather do the recent head to head. The head to head ended in a tie, but like I said, when you watch the game, it was apparent to me which team was better.

To be fair, if I was going to use common opponents, I'd use Va Wes more than Messiah. It's more recent and had fewer subcurrents. And there W&L tied, Lynchburg won. So that's a mark in Lynchburg's favor. But I have a hard time not looking at the h2h. W&L was just better. And not a little better, they were a lot better. Soccer is funny that way. The better team, even the lot better team, doesn't always get the result.

There are a lot of ways to put together a poll. It's a lot of opinion. If someone wanted to use conference standings I can accept that as a method. It wouldn't be my favorite, but at this point in the season, it's as legit as anything else.

Remember also that W&L lost arguably four of the best players at their positions in program history off the 2021 team and then played Game 1 vs Messiah without returning All-American midfielder Kutsanzira (red card) and 2021 starting midfielder McCarty (hospitalization).  Singleton has shuffled the line-up considerably since opening day and seems to have found a better combination in the back than in the early season.  True, the body of work is the body of work, but comparisons today based on first games are difficult to defend.  Like JKnezek, I still go back to H2H, where the Generals were the much better team.  On the flip side, the inability of W&L to find the net in big games (CNU, Lynchburg, Va. Wes, etc.) is the Achilles heel, whereas the Mega-Robles-Lagana-Whelan-Lovell combination Yeager has on the field for Lynchburg can score in bunches.

The ODAC final should come down to the two of them, and home field (likely Lynchburg) could be a big factor.  Lynchburg plays on a markedly narrower artificial surface than W&L's larger natural grass pitch, and the smaller gaps seemed to give W&L trouble in the first matchup.

[jknezek]

D3Boards.com Soccer Fan Poll Games as of 10/23/2022

National Top 25

Rank		School			Points		Weekly Change		Voter Breakdown
1		Chicago (5)			197		0		1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2
2		Messiah (3)			195		0		2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1
3		Kenyon			182		0		3, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4
4		Stevens			178		1		4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3
T5		Amherst			148		4		5, 10, 8, 6, 10, 10, 6, 5
T5		Bowdoin			148		5		6, 8, 16, 7, 5, 5, 7, 6
T5		Johns Hopkins			148		-1		9, 9, 7, 5, 11, 7, 5, 7
8		Calvin			141		-2		10, 13, 5, 8, 6, 9, 8, 8
9		Washington and Lee			139		3		8, 6, 6, 13, 8, 6, 9, 13
10		Gustavus Adolphus			116		3		7, 5, 10, 13, 8, 14, 9
11		Montclair State			114		-1		18, 11, 10, 12, 9, 12, 10, 12
12		North Park			111		-5		11, 14, 13, 9, 14, 13, 12, 11
13		Middlebury			108		-5		12, 9, 11, 7, 14, 11, 10
14		North Central (IL)			107		3		13, 7, 12, 15, 12, 11, 16, 15
15		Franklin and Marshall			87		4		17, 12, 14, 14, 18, 15, 17, 14
16		Western Connecticut			52		4		16, 22, 17, 21, 22, 15, 17
17		Lynchburg			51		-3		15, 19, 21, 17, 13, 20
18		Willamette			47		4		22, 17, 19, 19, 18, 19, 21
19		Christopher Newport			42		-3		20, 15, 20, 25, 16, 18
20		Ohio Northern			36		1		14, 16, 21, 21, 22
T21		Cortland State			30		-6		25, 11, 15, 23
T21		Oneonta State			30		---		23, 15, 18, 22, 22
T23		Mary Hardin-Baylor			27		2		24, 18, 17, 19, 25
T23		Mary Washington			27		0		16, 20, 22, 20, 25
25		Tufts			26		---		19, 16, 20, 23

Also Receiving Votes:
Babson (23) , Hamilton (16) , St. Thomas (TX) (10) , Clarkson (9) , John Carroll (8) , Luther (8) , Rose-Hulman (8) , UW-Eau Claire (8) , Williams (7) , St. Lawrence (5) , Catholic (4) , Gettysburg (3) , Rochester (3) , Connecticut College (1)

Newly Ranked: Oneonta State, Tufts
Dropped Out: Hamilton (Prev:18), Rochester (Prev:24), Pacific Lutheran (Prev:25)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 25 = 25th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, Paul Newman, jknezek, Mid-Atlantic Fan, Coach Jeff

[jknezek]

There was a lot of action after the first 4 teams this week. Those teams remained solid, with Chicago and Messiah getting every 1 and 2 vote and Kenyon and Stevens getting every 3 or 4 vote.

After that, it got messy.

Amherst tightly grouped between 5 and 10, Bowdoin with an outlier of 16th, and Johns Hopkins with a grouping between 5 and 11, all tie for 5th with 148 pts. Hopkins paucity of offense caught them with 2 ties, Bowdoin picked up 2 wins, and Amherst went with a win and a tie. Bowdoin moving up 5 spots is this week's biggest positive mover.

Gustavus Adolphus is the team with the widest dispersion. One voter slots them at 5, one voter didn't slot them at all.

Cortland State took the biggest slide this week while staying in the poll, dropping 6 slots after going 1-1 this week, with a big loss to Oneonta State and a big win over Brockport State. Hamilton took the biggest slide period, dropping out from 18th after being winless in their last 5 games (0-2-3).

F&M at 15 is the last team to appear on all 8 ballots. Cortland State and Tufts make the poll appearing on the fewest ballots, 4.

To break the ties for the D3soccer ballot, Bowdoin, Amherst and Hopkins each had 2 (5th) votes. Amherst and Bowdoin with 2 (6th) votes force Hopkins (no 6ht place votes) to 7th on the ballot. Bowdoin with 2 (7th) votes claims 5th on the ballot, forcing Amherst, with no (7th) votes to 6th on the ballot.

Cortland State with an 11 vote should take 21st over Oneonta State by my own criteria, but given the week's head to head I don't care and am putting Oneonta State 21st and Cortland 22nd. You can argue with me about consistency if you want, but a fresh head to head that wasn't even close is going in the common sense field.

Mary Washington pips Mary Hardin-Baylor with a 16 vote.

[Ejay]

Tufts has only won 50% of their games. I just couldn't put them on my ballot.

[SimpleCoach]

Tufts has only won 50% of their games. I just couldn't put them on my ballot.

Same.  Just doesn't make sense to me to give them a spot.

SC.