D3Boards.Com Soccer Top 20 Fan Poll

[BaboNation]

FWIW the largest disparity between this poll and Massey rankings appears (at first glance) to be Conn College 1 vote vs. Massey rank #8

[PaulNewman]

I wouldn't put too much weight into Massey's SOS ratings tbh.  His SOS ratings are relative to the power of the team playing the schedule.  From Massey's perspective, there is a significant difference between playing a "good" team and a "great" team.  So, for example, Messiah's wins over CNU (12) and W&L (17) weigh more heavily than Chicago's wins over Calvin (18), St. Olaf (19), NPU (24) even though they seem to be close just by eyeballing them.  Also, the poorly ranked wins don't seem to have as much of a negative impact compared to wins vs highly ranked teams so a Messiah win against CNU helps their SOS more than a win against Albright (326) hurts them.

Also, try sorting the Massey SOS ratings sometime and you'll see some real head scratchers since it is relative to the strength of the team playing the schedule.  I.E. UC Santa Cruz has the 13th toughest SOS according to Massey, Whittier 16th

So some of the variance comes from Massey ending up with CNU over the others when imo and based on at least some real data CNU is the weakest of that entire group you listed.

It's like saying you rate Messiah higher because they beat two teams currently ranked.  Well, when Chicago played North Park the latter was #3 in the country (rankings-wise) and Calvin has been top 10 all year.  CMU at one point I think was as high as #8.  Luther and Rochester also were ranked pretty high when Chicago played them...and CWRU has been RV past few weeks.

That is true about the past rankings.  IMO if a team beats the preseason number one team let's say CONN College, should we consider that win the same if a team beats Chicago this week?  If you look at other sports they don't even start ranking until weeks into the season.  Because the preseason number one could get beat in every game due to transfers, injuries, new coach, bad playing condition or anything that causes teams to underachieve. That is why i stated that Messiah has wins over current ranked teams compared to Chicago.  What do you think about comparing these wins are they same quality of victories?  Is it also true that the NCAA committee looks at the last weeks rankings?

Couple of things.  Seems like you are talking about poll rankings and not RvR rankings which is where paclassic chimed in (and maybe thought that was what you were talking about when referencing "last week's ranking").  The regional rankings are determined in part based on the prior week's regional ranking (and this only happens last 3 weeks of the season.  You're saying you put Messiah higher in the poll because of having played teams currently ranked in the top 25.

Secondly, I'm not talking about preseason rankings or even the first week (although we generally do know what the alleged top teams have returning and Conn and W&L did return most of their squads from their Final 4 squads).  You said (I think) that your decision tree involved observing that Messiah has had two opponents currently ranked in the top 25.  Well, so does Chicago.  Calvin and NPU have never not been in the top 25 all season and for the most part have been in the top 10 week after week.  Also, the others I mentioned were ranked pretty deep into the season and all of them or most are or will be regionally ranked for selection purposes....UR, CMU, Luther, CWRU, St Olaf, and maybe Wheaton.

A perfectly good case can be made for ranking Messiah #1...I also have considered doing so myself a few times.  But I don't think the rationale is supported by the "current in the top 25" argument, which doesn't even stand up if that is accepted as a criterion.

[PaulNewman]

So out of curiosity I peeked at Massey again which I rarely look at because I don't understand it.

To be clear, I don't have a personal gripe as Massey has my team at #3 like the polls do (despite a comparatively weak SoS relative to other highly ranked teams and which in part is due to several teams having 2 wins or less and some others having less than their usual stellar seasons at least record-wise).

Anyway, I noticed UWEC is +18 this week.  I looked down the list and there are teams +40, +24, +30, -38, -30, etc.  Now, again to be clear, I was pretty much UWEC's first fanboy here (and still am), but up 18 spots in one week?  This late in the season?  I could see wild swings in the first 2-3 weeks, but now?  UWEC won a couple of games but nothing earth-shattering to justify that big of a move imo. 

So I'm wondering if those who follow and to some degree rely on Massey see this as a potential weakness...huge swings this late in the season....and if any math is involved please explain at 5th grade level or lower.

[jknezek]

So out of curiosity I peeked at Massey again which I rarely look at because I don't understand it.

To be clear, I don't have a personal gripe as Massey has my team at #3 like the polls do (despite a comparatively weak SoS relative to other highly ranked teams and which in part is due to several teams having 2 wins or less and some others having less than their usual stellar seasons at least record-wise).

Anyway, I noticed UWEC is +18 this week.  I looked down the list and there are teams +40, +24, +30, -38, -30, etc.  Now, again to be clear, I was pretty much UWEC's first fanboy here (and still am), but up 18 spots in one week?  This late in the season?  I could see wild swings in the first 2-3 weeks, but now?  UWEC won a couple of games but nothing earth-shattering to justify that big of a move imo. 

So I'm wondering if those who follow and to some degree rely on Massey see this as a potential weakness...huge swings this late in the season....and if any math is involved please explain at 5th grade level or lower.

You have to remember, he is ranking all 400+ members of D3. A swing of 18 is about a 5% change in position. So in your Top 25, if you had any team move more than 2 spots, that's a greater percentage move than UW-EC in Massey. Even if a team moved 40 spots, that's still less than a 10% movement. So if anyone on your Top 25 ballot moved more than 2 spots, you made a greater percentage move than he did. They aren't wild swings, especially when teams are packed tightly together.

There are 76 teams with a win percentage between .55 and .65 right now. Most of these teams have played about 14 or 15 games. So, assuming they played 2 games last week, they would have played 12 or 13 games. So 2 wins, or 2 losses, over 1 week, could move just their winning percentage rank from the bottom of that range to the top.

In 5th grade math, let's say a team started the week at 7-5. That's a .5833 winning percentage. They won 2 games, they are 9-5. That's a .643 winning percentage. They would have gone, based on this week's rankings, from 163 in winning percentage to 118, a move of +45.

Now add in a few other factors like who they played, goal differential, etc., and maybe it tempers that move if they were heavy favorites or maybe it adds to that move some because they were underdogs. But it's not hard to move 40 spots out of 400+ teams in a week.

They are hardly wild swings. And those of us that fill out Top 25 ballots, even this time of year, we see those +5/-6 moves all the time in our poll. That's a 20%+ movement. In terms of D3's overall size, that would be like moving over 81 spots. And that is pretty common in our little poll.

[PaulNewman]

So out of curiosity I peeked at Massey again which I rarely look at because I don't understand it.

To be clear, I don't have a personal gripe as Massey has my team at #3 like the polls do (despite a comparatively weak SoS relative to other highly ranked teams and which in part is due to several teams having 2 wins or less and some others having less than their usual stellar seasons at least record-wise).

Anyway, I noticed UWEC is +18 this week.  I looked down the list and there are teams +40, +24, +30, -38, -30, etc.  Now, again to be clear, I was pretty much UWEC's first fanboy here (and still am), but up 18 spots in one week?  This late in the season?  I could see wild swings in the first 2-3 weeks, but now?  UWEC won a couple of games but nothing earth-shattering to justify that big of a move imo. 

So I'm wondering if those who follow and to some degree rely on Massey see this as a potential weakness...huge swings this late in the season....and if any math is involved please explain at 5th grade level or lower.

You have to remember, he is ranking all 400+ members of D3. A swing of 18 is about a 5% change in position. So in your Top 25, if you had any team move more than 2 spots, that's a greater percentage move than UW-EC in Massey. Even if a team moved 40 spots, that's still less than a 10% movement. So if anyone on your Top 25 ballot moved more than 2 spots, you made a greater percentage move than he did. They aren't wild swings, especially when teams are packed tightly together.

There are 76 teams with a win percentage between .55 and .65 right now. Most of these teams have played about 14 or 15 games. So, assuming they played 2 games last week, they would have played 12 or 13 games. So 2 wins, or 2 losses, over 1 week, could move just their winning percentage rank from the bottom of that range to the top.

In 5th grade math, let's say a team started the week at 7-5. That's a .5833 winning percentage. They won 2 games, they are 9-5. That's a .643 winning percentage. They would have gone, based on this week's rankings, from 163 in winning percentage to 118, a move of +45.

Now add in a few other factors like who they played, goal differential, etc., and maybe it tempers that move if they were heavy favorites or maybe it adds to that move some because they were underdogs. But it's not hard to move 40 spots out of 400+ teams in a week.

They are hardly wild swings. And those of us that fill out Top 25 ballots, even this time of year, we see those +5/-6 moves all the time in our poll. That's a 20%+ movement. In terms of D3's overall size, that would be like moving over 81 spots. And that is pretty common in our little poll.

I knew I was getting in way over my head.

So, if folks are using Massey to assist with polling or considering Massey an additional poll, you don't think a team jumping from like outside the top 40 to inside the top 20 (put aside whether those numbers line up exactly) is significant?  In one week?  UWEC was 15-2 the week before.  Now 17-2.

And aren't pollsters at least in theory considering or at least judging against a backdrop of the same 400+ teams?  I usually scan through the entire list biweekly if not weekly.  Not sure how it is different if I had let's say Wabash at 65 a week ago and this week peg them at 23.

[jknezek]

So out of curiosity I peeked at Massey again which I rarely look at because I don't understand it.

To be clear, I don't have a personal gripe as Massey has my team at #3 like the polls do (despite a comparatively weak SoS relative to other highly ranked teams and which in part is due to several teams having 2 wins or less and some others having less than their usual stellar seasons at least record-wise).

Anyway, I noticed UWEC is +18 this week.  I looked down the list and there are teams +40, +24, +30, -38, -30, etc.  Now, again to be clear, I was pretty much UWEC's first fanboy here (and still am), but up 18 spots in one week?  This late in the season?  I could see wild swings in the first 2-3 weeks, but now?  UWEC won a couple of games but nothing earth-shattering to justify that big of a move imo. 

So I'm wondering if those who follow and to some degree rely on Massey see this as a potential weakness...huge swings this late in the season....and if any math is involved please explain at 5th grade level or lower.

You have to remember, he is ranking all 400+ members of D3. A swing of 18 is about a 5% change in position. So in your Top 25, if you had any team move more than 2 spots, that's a greater percentage move than UW-EC in Massey. Even if a team moved 40 spots, that's still less than a 10% movement. So if anyone on your Top 25 ballot moved more than 2 spots, you made a greater percentage move than he did. They aren't wild swings, especially when teams are packed tightly together.

There are 76 teams with a win percentage between .55 and .65 right now. Most of these teams have played about 14 or 15 games. So, assuming they played 2 games last week, they would have played 12 or 13 games. So 2 wins, or 2 losses, over 1 week, could move just their winning percentage rank from the bottom of that range to the top.

In 5th grade math, let's say a team started the week at 7-5. That's a .5833 winning percentage. They won 2 games, they are 9-5. That's a .643 winning percentage. They would have gone, based on this week's rankings, from 163 in winning percentage to 118, a move of +45.

Now add in a few other factors like who they played, goal differential, etc., and maybe it tempers that move if they were heavy favorites or maybe it adds to that move some because they were underdogs. But it's not hard to move 40 spots out of 400+ teams in a week.

They are hardly wild swings. And those of us that fill out Top 25 ballots, even this time of year, we see those +5/-6 moves all the time in our poll. That's a 20%+ movement. In terms of D3's overall size, that would be like moving over 81 spots. And that is pretty common in our little poll.

I knew I was getting in way over my head.

So, if folks are using Massey to assist with polling or considering Massey an additional poll, you don't think a team jumping from like outside the top 40 to inside the top 20 (put aside whether those numbers line up exactly) is significant?  In one week?  UWEC was 15-2 the week before.  Now 17-2.

And aren't pollsters at least in theory considering or at least judging against a backdrop of the same 400+ teams?  I usually scan through the entire list biweekly if not weekly.  Not sure how it is different if I had let's say Wabash at 65 a week ago and this week peg them at 23.

I don't think it's that big a deal. Again, these teams are so closely clustered. If you look at how many teams are considered for the Top 25, there are usually 15-20 teams in the RV category for the D3soccer poll. So if one of those teams jumps from the last RV to the 20-25 spot, we don't even blink. Hell we don't even blink if a team who wasn't RV jumps to one of those last 5 spots. The difference is Massey puts an absolute number on every single team in D3. Even if the difference between 10, 20, or 40 of them is almost nothing.

How many teams could you put for your 25th place team in the poll? For me, I can usually justify at least 20 different teams in any given week. If I had to label every one of them, one of those teams would be 45th, but we are splitting hairs on whether they would have been 25th and one good win could easily pop them to 20th in the next week.

Frankly I think putting numbers on every team is silly. Because I don't think 5 vs 10 is actually known. I'm not sure 11th vs 20th is a big deal. 20th vs 50th is a easily arguable, and we see that in RV. 50th vs 90th is probably a matter of opinion and so on. So when the algorithm moves a team from one of those arguable positions to another, that's no different from what happens to a team that was cuspy having a good or bad week.

I just don't think there is much difference, statistically or even using an eyeball test, between the 40th team in Massey and the 80th team in Massey or any other system.

As a concrete example, the 41st team in Massey is CWRU at 7-3-3. Ohio Wesleyan at 6-4-4 is 87th. And yes, I'm picking 2 teams I know you will be very familiar with. They tied the first game of the season.

Common Opponents:
Capital  (CWRU L, OWU W)
JCU  (CWRU T, OWU L)
Kenyon (CWRU L, OWU T)

Do we really think there is much difference between these teams? No. But they have to be ranked. So we look at stats. CWRU has a slightly better winning percentage and a harder schedule. They have a quality win over NYU. There are over 40 teams that fit in the middle, statistically, between 2 teams who have a tied H2H and very similar common opponents. So a good week for one, a bad week for the other, and they are going to move that distance between them because the number is large, but the quality difference is miniscule.

So when I look at Massey I look in brackets. If teams are within 5 spots of each other in the top 10, I think they are probably pretty close to equal. If they are within 10 from 5-20, I think they are pretty much equal. Within 20 from 15-75? Probably about the same. Within 30 from 40-125? Splitting hairs. After 125 I don't really care. And yes, there is overlap in each of those ranges. I get it. But the point is, I think having a number on every team doesn't tell us much and is often misleading because there simply is no way to differentiate those teams.

See CWRU and OWU.

[PaulNewman]

OK, thanks.  That definitely helps.  And yes, I can have as many as 15+ teams that I'm considering for those last 5 slots in the top 25 which I try to get down to 8 or 9 and then pick 4 or 5 out of that group.

And I get the tight clustering.  I guess I don't get a team like UWEC getting two more kind of average wins over the week jumping so high perhaps compared to other teams that won two games last week.  I mean they didn't knock off Calvin or Chicago.  I also got your point about the relative % differences and that on a % basis me moving Hopkins down 4 spots is actually a bigger move than some of these Massey moves.  It's just that when I move Hopkins I know why and why in relation to the teams just above and just below them the week before.  Just instinctively feels hard to rely on a system especially this late in the season with what looks like huge variance on initial glance.  Anyway, no need to push this any further.

[jknezek]

D3Boards.com Soccer Fan Poll Games as of 10/30/2022

National Top 25

Rank		School			Points		Weekly Change		Voter Breakdown
1		Messiah (8)			200		1		1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
2		Chicago			191		-1		2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2
3		Kenyon			184		0		3, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3
4		Stevens			177		0		4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4
5		Amherst			165		0		5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5
6		Calvin			152		2		8, 9, 5, 8, 5, 6, 6, 9
7		Montclair State			140		4		14, 8, 9, 9, 7, 7, 7, 7
8		Bowdoin			128		-3		6, 14, 16, 7, 8, 9, 9, 11
9		Franklin and Marshall			122		6		15, 6, 13, 11, 14, 11, 8, 8
10		Johns Hopkins			120		-5		10, 7, 8, 12, 15, 12, 10, 14
11		North Central (IL)			116		3		12, 10, 10, 15, 10, 10, 15, 10
12		Washington and Lee			111		-3		9, 12, 7, 13, 16, 13, 11, 16
13		Gustavus Adolphus			108		-3		7, 25, 5, 9, 8, 14, 6
14		North Park			106		-2		11, 11, 12, 14, 12, 14, 16, 12
15		Middlebury			95		-2		16, 15, 11, 16, 11, 15, 12, 17
16		Western Connecticut			77		0		13, 20, 10, 18, 16, 13, 15
17		Ohio Northern			68		3		13, 18, 23, 20, 13, 17, 18, 18
18		Oneonta State			51		3		17, 19, 21, 17, 18, 19, 20
19		Babson			49		---		16, 19, 23, 19, 17, 13
20		Christopher Newport			40		-1		20, 17, 15, 19, 19
21		Cortland State			27		0		25, 24, 14, 19, 21
22		Pacific Lutheran			21		---		18, 22, 22, 21
23		UW-Eau Claire			17		---		23, 22, 24, 20, 24
T24		John Carroll			16		---		25, 20, 20, 23
T24		St. Lawrence			16		---		21, 21, 22, 24

Also Receiving Votes:
Tufts (15) , Lynchburg (14) , New York University (10) , St. Thomas (TX) (10) , Luther (9) , Williams (9) , Carnegie Mellon (6) , Case Western Reserve (6) , Catholic (6) , Clarkson (5) , Rose-Hulman (5) , Willamette (5) , Hamilton (2) , Connecticut College (1)

Newly Ranked: Babson, Pacific Lutheran, UW-Eau Claire, John Carroll, St. Lawrence
Dropped Out: Lynchburg (Prev:17), Willamette (Prev:18), Mary Hardin-Baylor (Prev:23), Mary Washington (Prev:23), Tufts (Prev:25)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 25 = 25th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, Paul Newman, jknezek, Mid-Atlantic Fan, Coach Jeff

[jknezek]

Items of Note!

1) Messiah becomes the unanimous #1

2) Kenyon picks up a #2.

3) All of the top 4 votes go to the top 4 teams again

4) Babson is the biggest mover this week. Jumping from AR to 19. Lynchburg dropped from 17 to out. Within the top 25, F&M jumped 6 spots, while Johns Hopkins fell 5 spots.

5) Gustavus Adolphus at 13 is still the first team that doesn't appear on a ballot. They have a massive vote spread, with 5 votes inside the top 10, one inside the top 15, one at 25, and one does not appear.

6) Ohio Northern at 17 is the last team to appear on all 8 ballots.

7) Pac Lu, John Carroll and St. Lawrence all appear on only 4 ballots but still make it inside the Top 25.

8) John Carroll went to the D3soccer ballot at 24 on the strength of their 2 20th place votes. St. Lawrence went at 25.

[jknezek]

D3Boards.com Soccer Fan Poll Games as of 11/6/2022

National Top 25

Rank		School			Points		Weekly Change		Voter Breakdown
1		Messiah (8)			200		0		1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
2		Chicago			192		0		2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2
3		Stevens			181		1		3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3
4		Amherst			176		1		5, 3, 6, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4
5		Kenyon			170		-2		4, 5, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5
6		Calvin			160		0		7, 6, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6
7		North Central (IL)			141		4		11, 7, 10, 8, 7, 7, 10, 7
8		Washington and Lee			139		4		8, 8, 7, 10, 9, 9, 7, 11
9		Bowdoin			127		-1		6, 16, 16, 9, 8, 8, 8, 10
10		Gustavus Adolphus			106		3		9, 14, 25, 7, 13, 13, 13, 8
11		Middlebury			96		4		12, 11, 11, 10, 10, 12, 20
12		Johns Hopkins			91		-2		10, 13, 8, 14, 16, 14, 16
13		North Park			89		1		13, 20, 12, 15, 15, 17, 15, 12
14		Oneonta State			83		4		22, 10, 18, 11, 12, 11, 15
15		Babson			77		4		9, 19, 13, 22, 15, 14, 13
16		Montclair State			73		-9		15, 17, 9, 23, 14, 9, 22
17		St. Lawrence			65		7		25, 11, 12, 17, 16, 17, 19
18		John Carroll			55		6		12, 24, 12, 11, 16
19		Franklin and Marshall			53		-10		18, 18, 13, 23, 22, 9
20		Christopher Newport			48		0		23, 15, 15, 17, 24, 14
21		Ohio Northern			39		-4		14, 23, 19, 19, 22, 23, 23
22		Western Connecticut			32		-6		19, 20, 16, 18, 25
23		Case Western Reserve			31		---		22, 22, 18, 19, 18
24		St. Thomas (TX)			30		---		16, 20, 21, 17
25		Pacific Lutheran			29		-3		17, 21, 20, 25, 18

Also Receiving Votes:
New York University (18) , UW-Eau Claire (17) , Cortland State (13) , Luther (12) , Tufts (12) , Mary Washington (10) , Lynchburg (8) , Willamette (6) , Clarkson (5) , Rose-Hulman (5) , St. Olaf (4) , Ohio Wesleyan (3) , Carnegie Mellon (2) , Hamilton (2)

Newly Ranked: Case Western Reserve, St. Thomas (TX)
Dropped Out: Cortland State (Prev:21), UW-Eau Claire (Prev:23)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 25 = 25th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, Paul Newman, jknezek, Mid-Atlantic Fan, Coach Jeff

[jknezek]

Things of note:

Montclair State and Western Conn in our Top 25 didn't get in.

At Large Bids that got in that we didn't give a single vote to:

Catholic
UW-P
Vassar
Williams

GAC finally arrives on all 8 ballots.

Middlebury (11) is the first team on only 7 ballots
North Park (13) is the last team on all 8 ballots

St. Lawrence with the biggest jump up
Franklin and Marshall with the biggest drop

[SKUD]

Can we see each ballot so we know who we can ignore in the future?

[jknezek]

Can we see each ballot so we know who we can ignore in the future?

Ignoring the stupidly obnoxious intent of this... it is up to each voter if they wish to release their individual ballot.

Here is mine:

Messiah
Chicago
Amherst
Stevens
Kenyon
Calvin
North Central (IL)
Bowdoin
Washington and Lee
Middlebury
John Carroll
Oneonta State
Gustavus Adolphus
Johns Hopkins
Babson
St. Lawrence
North Park
Western Connecticut
Case Western Reserve
New York University
UW-Eau Claire
Ohio Northern
Mary Washington
St. Olaf
Pacific Lutheran

[Coach Jeff]

Can we see each ballot so we know who we can ignore in the future?

Ignoring the stupidly obnoxious intent of this... it is up to each voter if they wish to release their individual ballot.

Here is mine:

Messiah
Chicago
Amherst
Stevens
Kenyon
Calvin
North Central (IL)
Bowdoin
Washington and Lee
Middlebury
John Carroll
Oneonta State
Gustavus Adolphus
Johns Hopkins
Babson
St. Lawrence
North Park
Western Connecticut
Case Western Reserve
New York University
UW-Eau Claire
Ohio Northern
Mary Washington
St. Olaf
Pacific Lutheran

I agree it is a stupid request...I didn't see SKUD participate all year.  Welcome to the D3 Boards SKUD.  I will post mine later

[PaulNewman]

1)  Messiah
2)  Chicago
3)  Stevens
4)  Amherst
5)  Kenyon
6)  Calvin
7)  North Central
8)  Bowdoin
9)  W&L
10) Middlebury
11) Oneonta St
12) John Carroll
13) GAC
14) Montclair St
15) North Park
16) Hopkins
17) SLU
18) CWRU
19) Ohio Northern
20) Pac Lutheran
21) St Thomas (TX)
22) Babson
23) F&M
24) UWEC
25) Mary Washington