Go WEST young man (and NORTH)

[PaulNewman]

Does the draw help GAC or Augsburg?  This is becoming an interesting topic.

Not sure what you mean.  Before the game one would have said Augsburg would have benefitted more from a draw, but since Augsburg was 7.5 seconds away from getting all 3 points one would think the draw was more helpful to GAC.  Augsburg in theory would benefit from getting a "ranked draw" but that would only help if Augsburg ends up being regionally ranked at the end of the regular season/conference playoffs.  GAC may get knocked a bit in polls for the draw but any impact on the rest of their season I would think is negligible.

[Coach Jeff]

Does the draw help GAC or Augsburg?  This is becoming an interesting topic.

Not sure what you mean.  Before the game one would have said Augsburg would have benefitted more from a draw, but since Augsburg was 7.5 seconds away from getting all 3 points one would think the draw was more helpful to GAC.  Augsburg in theory would benefit from getting a "ranked draw" but that would only help if Augsburg ends up being regionally ranked at the end of the regular season/conference playoffs.  GAC may get knocked a bit in polls for the draw but any impact on the rest of their season I would think is negligible.

I agree with Paul N.  I was thinking the same thing.  However Augsburg missed on a golden opportunity to steal a big win.  Would have been very beneficial in their region and national rankings. 

[Kuiper]

In SCIAC action tonight, the big game was between Occidental and Cal Lutheran.  Oxy was up 1-0 for most of the second half, but gave up a poor 87th minute goal to allow Cal Lutheran to tie them and deny Oxy sole possession of first place.  I hate to blame the GK -- and it might not have been deserved because the video was grainy and it could have deflected slightly -- but it was a shot from the far left of the goal that went right into the GK's breadbasket and i think it just hit off of him and into the goal.  Even if deflected, he needs to be able to react better to that.  Nevertheless, Oxy let Cal Lutheran hang around too long basically because they started reverting to boot ball when the Lutes dialed up the pressure and some of Oxy's players weren't really skilled enough to continue to play out.  They have about 5-6 regulars who are very skilled (their 6 - Vicente Navarro - is really good getting out of pressure and delivering line-breaking passes on the ground), so when those players are on the ball Oxy looks like one of the top teams around.  When they aren't, though, they look very mediocre.

The Cal Tech - La Verne won't matter for playoffs or rankings or tournament bids, but it was exciting nonetheless as Cal Tech pulled out a 2-1 win with a goal in the 89th minute for Cal Tech's first win in SCIAC play this year.  Hard to figure out La Verne, which tied Cal Lutheran 1-1 on Saturday and then lost to Cal Tech on Wednesday.  It's possibly they had injuries or general fatigue since they played UC Santa Cruz on Sunday (and lost 1-0).  Three games in five days may have done them in here.

Pomona-Pitzer beat Whittier 2-0 in a game that really wasn't that close.  When Pomona-Pitzer is on, they may be the most impressive team in the conference in terms of skill and possession-based play.  Their downfall is their inexperience and sometimes their goalkeeping, but none of that was an issue against Whittier.  With the technical win granted to them for tournament seeding purposes because of C-M-S cancelling their game scheduled for this past Saturday, Pomona should be in third place in the conference if I'm understanding how that "win" will count. 

Chapman beat Redlands 1-0 on a penalty kick in the 76th minute.  The result vaulted Chapman to a tie for first and left Redlands in danger of not qualifying even for the SCIAC tournament for what is probably the first time in awhile.  They are now 3-4-1 in conference.

[Kuiper]

Big win for Colorado College away at Southwestern by a 2-1 score.  Colorado College was down 1-0 at half and came back with two scores in the second half to pull out the win.  They jump to third in the SCAC, just behind Southwestern with two games in hand and the tiebreaker over Southwestern.

[Kuiper]

Upset brewing in Salem, Oregon.  Whitman up 2-0 on Willamette early in the second half.  We'll see if Whitman can hang on with about 40 minutes left.

UPDATE:  Whitman beats Willamette 3-1.  Willamette scored a PK after it was already 3-0, but couldn't break down the bunker any further.  The last undefeated team out West falls. 

One of the reason Whitman can beat a team like Pacific Lutheran and (maybe Willamette after losing to them 3-2 the first game), while tying a bottom dweller like George Fox, losing 1-0 to Linfield, and beating Pacific only 1-0 is that Whitman is very strong on the counterattack. They seem to have more trouble with teams that are more likely to sit.

[Kuiper]

The Northwest Conference heats up the second time through opponents.  Sometimes in the second game of a round robin format, familiarity allows weaker opponents to adjust tactically and play closer games.  Other times, the better teams improve and the weaker ones get worse through a combination of fatigue, injuries, and low morale. 

Willamette experienced some of the first this weekend, losing to Whitman 3-1, although it came back on Sunday to beat Whitworth 1-0 in a game that wasn't quite as close as the score with Willamette outshooting Whitworth 22-11 and 17-3 in the second half when they scored their lone goal.  Still, they only put 9 of their 22 shots on frame and their goal came off a rebound of a shot that hit the post. 

Pacific Lutheran seems to be experiencing some of the latter, although they are in the weaker part of their schedule.  Pacific Lutheran beat George Fox 5-1 on Sunday, after beating Pacific 5-1 on Saturday.  In fact, today's win was their 6th in a row and is the fifth game in a row that they have scored at least 4 goals.  They are averaging 4.6 goals/game over that 5 game stretch.  In the first round of conference games, Pac Lutheran only beat George Fox 2-0.  This next stretch of three games will be the true test for Pacific Lutheran (at Whitman, at Whitworth, and home to Willamette). 

[Kuiper]

In the SCAC, Trinity continues to pull away from the other teams, beating Schreiner today 8-0.  This is their sixth win in a row and their second 8-0 victory in the last three games.  The team now has 25 goals for and only 4 against in conference.  This Friday's game against St. Thomas could be a big one, especially since St. Thomas finishes with two weaker opponents and Trinity still has to play Colorado College, who beat Trinity the first time in Colorado Springs.

[Kuiper]

Here are United Soccer Coaches' regional rankings for Region X as of Sept 27.  Cal Lutheran and Chapman tied on Wednesday and Occidental beat Cal Tech, so those results wouldn't affect these rankings.  Mary-Hardin-Baylor did tie LeTourneau Thursday, though, which could hurt them in the next poll.  St. Thomas plays at Colorado College this afternoon.  So does Pac Lutheran against George Fox, but that can't help them and can only hurt them if they don't get the full three points or underwhelm.

Region X - Poll 3 - September 27, 2022
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    Willamette University    1    7-0-2
2    University of Saint Thomas (Texas)    2    7-0-1
3    Pacific Lutheran University    3    6-2-0
4    California Lutheran University    NR    4-1-2
5    Occidental College    8    4-2-1
6    University of Mary Hardin-Baylor    NR    4-1-1
7    Chapman University    NR    4-1-2
8    Colorado College    6    4-2-2

Some movement in the Region X rankings for Oct 4 from United Soccer Coaches.  Cal Lutheran drops out after tying Chapman 0-0 and losing to Pomona-Pitzer 1-0.  Occidental moves from 5th to 4th after beating Cal Tech 2-1 and La Verne 3-0.  Colorado College moves up 1 after tying St. Thomas 1-1 and beating Centenary 3-0.  University of the Ozarks enters the poll with a decent record (8-1-2), but nothing that would count as a good win I think and their one loss on 9/23 is to Belhaven (3-5-3), which would count as a bad loss.  Seems like they were just trying to find an 8th team there and wanted someone from a different region/conference of the West.

Region X - Poll 4 - October 4, 2022
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    Willamette University    1    8-0-2
2    University of Saint Thomas (Texas)    2    7-0-2
3    Pacific Lutheran University    3    8-2-0
4    Occidental College    5    7-2-1
5    University of Mary Hardin-Baylor    6    5-1-2
6    Chapman University    7    4-1-4
7    Colorado College    8    5-2-3
8    University of the Ozarks    NR    7-1-2

Region X - Poll 5 - October 11, 2022
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    Willamette University    1    9-0-2
2    Pacific Lutheran University    3    10-2-0
3    Occidental College    4    8-2-1
4    Chapman University    6    6-1-4
5    University of Saint Thomas (Texas)    2    7-1-3
6    University of Mary Hardin-Baylor    5    7-1-2
7    University of the Ozarks    8    8-1-3
8    Colorado College    7    5-2-3

St. Thomas drops from 2d to 5th.  I'm not sure why they are still in the top 8 at all after ties to Colorado College and Texas Lutheran and a loss to Southwestern in the last three games.

Region X - Poll 6 - October 18, 2022
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    Willamette University    1    10-1-2
2    Pacific Lutheran University    2    12-2-0
3    Occidental College    3    9-2-2
4    Chapman University    4    7-1-4
5    University of Saint Thomas (Texas)    5    9-1-3
6    University of Mary Hardin-Baylor    6    9-1-2
7    Colorado College    8    6-2-4
8    University of the Ozarks    7    8-2-4

Virtually the same as last week except Colorado College and the University of Ozarks switch places.  Kind of interesting that Willamette's loss to Whitman didn't affect it at all.

[Kuiper]

Big news in the SCIAC.  I've been wondering for awhile what the conference was going to do with the Claremont-Mudd-Scripps games with CMS cancelling the rest of their games.  Half the teams had played C-M-S at least once, but the other half had not.  While CMS was not having it's usual season, it did have some big wins in conference, including crushing Chapman 4-0 and tying both Redlands and Cal Lutheran.  Rather than doing forfeits for the rest of the season, but allowing the prior games to count, the conference just removed CMS entirely from the conference schedule, which involves wiping out games that teams lost against them.  This has shaken up the SCIAC standings, with Chapman now undefeated and taking the top spot and Pomona-Pitzer currently occupying the last playoff spot in fourth.  That makes Redlands game against La Verne tonight at 7 pm Pacific pretty meaningful.  If it can win, it will tie P-P for the last playoff spot with two games remaining, while if La Verne wins it can put itself in contention. 

What I don't know is how they are sorting out the fact that the teams will have played a different number of conference games because it isn't fully round robin and half the teams were playing CMS twice and half only once.  So, Chapman, Occidental, La Verne, and Whittier will have 11 games at the end of the season, while Cal Lutheran, Pomona-Pitzer, Redlands, and Cal Tech will only have 10.  Maybe they will use Percentage?

2022 SCIAC Men's Soccer Standings
                                        Conference                                                     Overall
                  GP    WL           PCT            Pts    PF    PA    GP    W-L    PCT            Pts    PF    PA    L10
Chapman    8    6-0-2    0.875    20    22    8    13    8-1-4    0.769    28    42    18    6-1-3
Occidental    8    5-1-2    0.750    17    20    7    13    9-2-2    0.769    29    30    11    7-1-2
Cal Lutheran    8    4-1-3    0.688    15    11    5    13    5-2-6    0.615    21    20    14    4-1-5
Pomona-Pitzer 8    4-4            0.500    12    14    13    11    5-6            0.455    15    22    18    4-6
Redlands    7    3-4            0.429    9    13    9    12    4-5-3    0.458    15    20    16    4-4-2
La Verne            8    2-5-1    0.313    7    5    14    16    3-11-2    0.250    11    14    27    2-7-1
Whittier            9    2-6-1    0.278    7    6    18    13    3-8-2    0.308    11    10    28    3-6-1
Caltech           8    1-6-1    0.188    4    8    25    11    2-8-1    0.227    7    12    30    2-7-1
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps    0    0-0    0.000    0    0    0       12    4-3-5    0.542    17    17    12    4-2-4

[Kuiper]

After an 8 day break after their 1-0 loss to Chapman, Redlands was well-rested, crushing La Verne 5-0 tonight.  With only two games left (at Whittier and home to Chapman) and C-M-S out of the picture, this is probably the last gasp for Redlands to regain their mojo and make some noise in the SCIAC playoffs.  I wouldn't count them out just yet.

[Kuiper]

Willamette beat George Fox tonight 2-0, but they were pretty unimpressive doing so against a clearly weaker, but determined and organized opponent.  The second goal was scored when the GK was up on a corner in the last minute and the first on a wonder strike from to the top corner about midway through the second half.  George Fox was beaten 5-1 by Pacific Lutheran last game and 7-0 by Willamette earlier in the season, so I came away from the game giving them kudos for effort and improvement.  My guess is that this was one of those games where Willamette thought they could waltz in and pad their stats and I'm not sure they ever really figured out how to break George Fox down.  I'm sure Willamette's coach is telling them they need to up their game if they want to beat Pacific Lutheran in Tacoma next Saturday.

[Kuiper]

In the SCIAC, first place Chapman blew a golden chance to solidify its conference lead, tying last place Cal Tech by a 3-3 score.  Just allowing Cal Tech to score 3 goals in a game is kind of mind-boggling. The only times Cal Tech has scored more than 1 goal in a SCIAC game this season were in a 2-1 win over fellow bottom dweller La Verne and in a 7-2 loss to Chapman.  Part of the issue this game was Chapman, like Willamette last night against George Fox, sat some of their regulars at the start of the game.  Chapman has a non-conference game scheduled for tomorrow against UC Santa Cruz, so I'm not sure why they didn't rest some of their starters for that game instead.  Regardless, 2 goals were given up by their normal GK starter, who came in during the second half, and Chapman's leading scorer played 69 minutes and got a brace in the game, so it's not like they didn't use their top players.

Chapman's last two conference games are home to Occidental and away to Redlands.  They could lose both and lose home field advantage in the SCIAC playoffs.  Considering that Chapman is 6-0-2 at home and 2-1-3 away, that could be costly.

[Kuiper]

In the Northwest Conference, Whitman is a giant killer again, beating Pacific Lutheran 2-1 for the second time this season.  At 6-3-1 in conference, Whitman is now up to third, only a couple of points behind the Lutes for second place.  I would say they have a good chance of overtaking Pacific Lutheran given that the rest of Whitman's schedule consist of bottom feeders like George Fox and Pacific, as well as mid-table teams like Whitworth and Puget Sound.  Problem is that most of those teams are the ones that sit back and give Whitman, a counter-attacking team, some trouble.  Whitman beat Whitworth, but lost to Puget Sound, squeaked by Pacific, and tied George Fox during the first round of conference games.

[Kuiper]

In the SCIAC, Occidental lost a really bad game to La Verne, 2-1.  It was only Occidental's second loss of conference play and La Verne's third win.  This was a team Oxy beat 3-0 the first time and Oxy had just come off a 5-0 win against Whittier, so they have to be frustrated at the missed opportunity.  La Verne lost their last game 5-0 to Redlands, so this surely feels like a huge victory for them.  In fact, the last time La Verne won a game was September 21.  This breaks an 8 game skid where they lost 7 (including the last 4) and tied 1.

I would be remiss if I didn't point out that the winning goal was scored on a header off a looping cross where the GK decided to stay on his line and defend rather than use his 6'4" height to go out and claim or punch it it - example #infinity that tall goalkeepers aren't necessarily good in the air.  BUT, the goal was basically a free header, AND Oxy missed countless chances to score at the other end, including a header of their own.

[Kuiper]

In the Northwest Conference, Willamette and Pacific Lutheran both take care of business, with Willamette beating Pacific 3-1 and Pac Lutheran beating Whitworth 3-1, setting up a showdown beat Willamette and Pacific Lutheran next Saturday @ the Lutes home in Tacoma.  I think , with a two game lead over Pac Lutheran, Willamette already has first place wrapped up regardless of how the game goes between the two (which means the AQ since the Northwest Conference doesn't have a tournament).   The interesting scheduling quirk is that after the Willamette and Pac Lutheran game, they each play Puget Sound and Linfield to conclude the season.  That kind of makes Puget Sound and Linfield the kingmakers.  if Pacific Lutheran beats Willamette and beats Puget Sound and Linfield, while Willamette is tripped up by one or both of them, the Lutes take the title.  Even if Pacific Lutheran loses to Willamette, which would lock up the title for Willamette, I think the Lutes will need to win both the Puget Sound and Linfield games to finish 16-4 overall and have a chance at a Pool C bid.