Go WEST young man (and NORTH)

Started by PaulNewman, October 02, 2021, 02:44:40 PM

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Kuiper

A few results of note from the SCAC and ASC:

Colorado College 1 - Schreiner 0

Pretty underwhelming scoreline for CC on senior day, although they outshot Schreiner 28-3.   They move to 11-2-1 overall and 6-0 in the SCAC.  All of the other contenders for the SCAC have 2 losses in conference.  Moreover, CC is the only one of the top five that doesn't have any games remaining against any other team from the top 5.  If they take care of business, they should secure the #1 seed in the SCAC tournament and in the Regional Rankings going into the conference tournament.

Texas Lutheran 3 - Dallas 0

Jack Manke scores a brace and Noel Pena returns to goal for the first time since the St. Thomas game (suggesting he had received a two game violent conduct suspension).  TLU is now tied with Southwestern for 2nd place and the two teams play each other in the last game before the conference tourney next Saturday night (although both Trinity and St. Thomas have a game in hand on TLU and Southwestern and could pass one or both of them).

Southwestern 2 - Austin 0

Southwestern keeps pace with TLU in the race for the second seed.


College Soccer Observer

Pena's suspension was a mandatory 2 games from NCAA for Violent Behavior II (headbutting)

D3Navy

Quote from: Kuiper on October 23, 2023, 01:03:24 AM
A few results of note from the SCAC and ASC:

Colorado College 1 - Schreiner 0

Pretty underwhelming scoreline for CC on senior day, although they outshot Schreiner 28-3.   They move to 11-2-1 overall and 6-0 in the SCAC.  All of the other contenders for the SCAC have 2 losses in conference.  Moreover, CC is the only one of the top five that doesn't have any games remaining against any other team from the top 5.  If they take care of business, they should secure the #1 seed in the SCAC tournament and in the Regional Rankings going into the conference tournament.

Texas Lutheran 3 - Dallas 0

Jack Manke scores a brace and Noel Pena returns to goal for the first time since the St. Thomas game (suggesting he had received a two game violent conduct suspension).  TLU is now tied with Southwestern for 2nd place and the two teams play each other in the last game before the conference tourney next Saturday night (although both Trinity and St. Thomas have a game in hand on TLU and Southwestern and could pass one or both of them).

Southwestern 2 - Austin 0

Southwestern keeps pace with TLU in the race for the second seed.

Looking forward to the Trinity - St. Thomas game Friday night in San Antonio.  Lots of energy between these two teams.  Could get interesting...

BTXCru18

Quote from: D3Navy on October 23, 2023, 10:56:40 AM
Quote from: Kuiper on October 23, 2023, 01:03:24 AM
A few results of note from the SCAC and ASC:

Colorado College 1 - Schreiner 0

Pretty underwhelming scoreline for CC on senior day, although they outshot Schreiner 28-3.   They move to 11-2-1 overall and 6-0 in the SCAC.  All of the other contenders for the SCAC have 2 losses in conference.  Moreover, CC is the only one of the top five that doesn't have any games remaining against any other team from the top 5.  If they take care of business, they should secure the #1 seed in the SCAC tournament and in the Regional Rankings going into the conference tournament.

Texas Lutheran 3 - Dallas 0

Jack Manke scores a brace and Noel Pena returns to goal for the first time since the St. Thomas game (suggesting he had received a two game violent conduct suspension).  TLU is now tied with Southwestern for 2nd place and the two teams play each other in the last game before the conference tourney next Saturday night (although both Trinity and St. Thomas have a game in hand on TLU and Southwestern and could pass one or both of them).

Southwestern 2 - Austin 0

Southwestern keeps pace with TLU in the race for the second seed.

Looking forward to the Trinity - St. Thomas game Friday night in San Antonio.  Lots of energy between these two teams.  Could get interesting...

Biggest game in the SCAC the past few seasons and UST has gotten the better of Trinity recently. There's a scenario where the loser of this game is out of the conference tournament as well depending on the TLU-SU game...

Kuiper

Quote from: BTXCru18 on October 23, 2023, 11:06:51 AM
Quote from: D3Navy on October 23, 2023, 10:56:40 AM
Quote from: Kuiper on October 23, 2023, 01:03:24 AM
A few results of note from the SCAC and ASC:

Colorado College 1 - Schreiner 0

Pretty underwhelming scoreline for CC on senior day, although they outshot Schreiner 28-3.   They move to 11-2-1 overall and 6-0 in the SCAC.  All of the other contenders for the SCAC have 2 losses in conference.  Moreover, CC is the only one of the top five that doesn't have any games remaining against any other team from the top 5.  If they take care of business, they should secure the #1 seed in the SCAC tournament and in the Regional Rankings going into the conference tournament.

Texas Lutheran 3 - Dallas 0

Jack Manke scores a brace and Noel Pena returns to goal for the first time since the St. Thomas game (suggesting he had received a two game violent conduct suspension).  TLU is now tied with Southwestern for 2nd place and the two teams play each other in the last game before the conference tourney next Saturday night (although both Trinity and St. Thomas have a game in hand on TLU and Southwestern and could pass one or both of them).

Southwestern 2 - Austin 0

Southwestern keeps pace with TLU in the race for the second seed.

Looking forward to the Trinity - St. Thomas game Friday night in San Antonio.  Lots of energy between these two teams.  Could get interesting...

Biggest game in the SCAC the past few seasons and UST has gotten the better of Trinity recently. There's a scenario where the loser of this game is out of the conference tournament as well depending on the TLU-SU game...

To add extra spice to this game, Trinity is coming off of a 3-2 loss to Colorado College after their comeback from being down 3-0 fell short and St. Thomas's offense seems to be back on track as they have outscored opponents 17-2 since the TLU game (and scored 3 against TLU, which was the most goals they've given up this season).

Kuiper

#395
Games of interest to me in Region X Wednesday-Thursday:

Wed 10/25:

Redlands @ Occidental

#1 v. #2 in the SCIAC.  Redlands enters with a 7 game unbeaten streak, but it's two blemishes (ties) came against lower SCIAC teams Pomona-Pitzer and La Verne.  Occidental has been up and down this season -- and mostly down lately -- but its last win against a team in the upper half of the SCIAC was against Redlands (2-0 at Redlands a month ago).  This game is at home for Oxy. 

Pomona-Pizer @ Claremont-Mudd-Scripps

A Sixth Street Rivalry is an interesting game no matter what the stakes.  In this case, both teams still have something to play for.  P-P is second to last in the SCIAC, but still only 4 points out of fourth place with two games to go.  CMS is in third place currently, but it could vault to first or drop out of the playoffs entirely.  Both teams had scoring outbursts their last game (5 for P-P against Cal Tech; 8 for CMS against Bethesda).

Cal Lutheran @ Whittier

Whittier is out of the playoff race, but Cal Lutheran is still in the thick of it, currently sitting in the fourth and final spot just a tie-breaker ahead of Chapman.  Cal Lu needs this game to keep pace, especially since their last game is against Redlands.

Thursday 10/26:

Hardin-Simmons @ UT Dallas

#3 v. #4 in the battle for seeing in the ASC.  Both teams coming in a bit down after somewhat disappointing ties.

SKUD

Great stuff-how do we share in games of the week thread?

D-Three Fan

Regarding the game between UST and Trinity. If UST loses to Trinity and Texas Lutheran loses to Southwestern, then both UST and Texas Lutheran would have 3 losses. Wouldn't UST advance to the conference playoff based on their head-to-head record?

BTXCru18

Quote from: D-Three Fan on October 23, 2023, 06:13:52 PM
Regarding the game between UST and Trinity. If UST loses to Trinity and Texas Lutheran loses to Southwestern, then both UST and Texas Lutheran would have 3 losses. Wouldn't UST advance to the conference playoff based on their head-to-head record?

Short answer, yes. The tie-break is head-to-head I believe. UST has a game in-hand on TLU and SU and would jump TLU with just 1 win and would jump SU with a win and draw.

A bit of wrinkle here...Provided there is a winner in the TU-UST game on Friday, if TLU and SU tie, they'd move to 16 points and would mathematically knockout the loser of Friday's game regardless of Sunday's results.

jaysoccer

From Trinity perspective, it is win or go home (no SCAC tournament, no NCAA) Friday night.

Kuiper

I know this means less given the NCAA regional rankings, but it's still interesting to see how coaches in the region view the teams


United Soccer Coaches

Region X - Poll 7 - October 24, 2023
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    Pacific Lutheran University    1    11-1-4
2    Colorado College    2    11-2-1
3    Texas Lutheran University    3    14-2-0
4    Trinity University (Texas)    4    9-2-2
5    Southwestern University    5    9-2-3
6    University of Saint Thomas (Texas)    6    10-2-1
7    University of Redlands    7    11-1-2
8    University of Mary Hardin-Baylor    NR    9-3-2

5 SCAC teams (some/most of whom are going to be left at home from the NCAA tournament).  Mary Hardin-Baylor makes its first appearance, taking Occidental's place.

BTXCru18

Quote from: Kuiper on October 24, 2023, 12:08:57 PM
I know this means less given the NCAA regional rankings, but it's still interesting to see how coaches in the region view the teams


United Soccer Coaches

Region X - Poll 7 - October 24, 2023
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    Pacific Lutheran University    1    11-1-4
2    Colorado College    2    11-2-1
3    Texas Lutheran University    3    14-2-0
4    Trinity University (Texas)    4    9-2-2
5    Southwestern University    5    9-2-3
6    University of Saint Thomas (Texas)    6    10-2-1
7    University of Redlands    7    11-1-2
8    University of Mary Hardin-Baylor    NR    9-3-2

5 SCAC teams (some/most of whom are going to be left at home from the NCAA tournament).  Mary Hardin-Baylor makes its first appearance, taking Occidental's place.

I feel like the region's only hope of an at-large is Colorado College or Texas Lutheran. SCAC tournament has potential to be a circus with UST hosting, who may very well scrape in at 4th.

Kuiper

Quote from: BTXCru18 on October 24, 2023, 02:49:08 PM
Quote from: Kuiper on October 24, 2023, 12:08:57 PM
I know this means less given the NCAA regional rankings, but it's still interesting to see how coaches in the region view the teams


United Soccer Coaches

Region X - Poll 7 - October 24, 2023
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    Pacific Lutheran University    1    11-1-4
2    Colorado College    2    11-2-1
3    Texas Lutheran University    3    14-2-0
4    Trinity University (Texas)    4    9-2-2
5    Southwestern University    5    9-2-3
6    University of Saint Thomas (Texas)    6    10-2-1
7    University of Redlands    7    11-1-2
8    University of Mary Hardin-Baylor    NR    9-3-2

5 SCAC teams (some/most of whom are going to be left at home from the NCAA tournament).  Mary Hardin-Baylor makes its first appearance, taking Occidental's place.

I feel like the region's only hope of an at-large is Colorado College or Texas Lutheran. SCAC tournament has potential to be a circus with UST hosting, who may very well scrape in at 4th.

I think you're right about the at-large bids, but @FlyingWeasel did point out out in the National Perspectives thread that there are two more at-large spots available this year than last year:

Quote(1) Due to the dissolution of the New England Collegiate Conference (NECC) and the merger of the Colonial States Athletic Conference (CSAC) and United East Conference (UEC), there are two less automatic berths (AQs) this year and thus two more Pool C at-large berths.  So this year's tournament field is comprised of 41 AQs, 1 Pool B at-large berth, 22 Pool C at-large berths.  That is significant.  I'm not sure it should change anyone's prediction of who is on the "bubble" for at-large selection, but it probably is more a shift from trying to figure out which 2 of 6 "bubble" teams will make the cut to trying to figure out which 2 of 6 "bubble" teams will be left out.

So, it's not out of the question that one of those extra Pool C bids could come from Region X, giving Region X two Pool C bids rather than the max one (and often none) it has received in most years.  One advantage from the SCAC tournament is that the losing team in the final is going to have another RvR win just from winning the first game to get there.  Usually, the NESCAC is one of the few tournaments that has that kind of ranked quality in one place.  On the other hand, I'm sure there will be plenty of schools from other, more DIII-heavy, regions that will have arguments for those as well though.

As for the SCAC tournament being hosted by St. Thomas at SaberCat stadium, a "circus" is putting it mildly.  That's like returning to the scene of the crime, especially if St. Thomas and Texas Lutheran end up playing each other again with most or all of the suspended players returning.

Christan Shirk

REGION X - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 25, 2023

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Colorado College
11-2-1
0.598
4-1-1
11-2-1
Y
2.
Texas Lutheran
14-2-0
0.536
2-2-0
14-2-0
Y
3.
St. Thomas (Texas)
10-2-0
0.544
2-1-0
11-2-1
Y
4.
Trinity (Texas)
9-2-1
0.554
1-2-0
9-2-2
Y
5.
Redlands
8-1-2
0.536
-0
11-1-2
Y
6.
Mary Hardin-Baylor
9-3-1
0.536
0-3-0
9-3-2
Y
7.
Pacific Lutheran
11-1-4
0.517
1-1-0
11-1-4
Y
Christan Shirk
Special Consultant and Advisor
D3soccer.com

Kuiper

Quote from: Christan Shirk on October 25, 2023, 03:21:30 PM
REGION X - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 25, 2023

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Colorado College
11-2-1
0.598
4-1-1
11-2-1
Y
2.
Texas Lutheran
14-2-0
0.536
2-2-0
14-2-0
Y
3.
St. Thomas (Texas)
10-2-0
0.544
2-1-0
11-2-1
Y
4.
Trinity (Texas)
9-2-1
0.554
1-2-0
9-2-2
Y
5.
Redlands
8-1-2
0.536
-0
11-1-2
Y
6.
Mary Hardin-Baylor
9-3-1
0.536
0-3-0
9-3-2
Y
7.
Pacific Lutheran
11-1-4
0.517
1-1-0
11-1-4
Y

The three teams at the bottom of this list basically have to win their AQs because they have no chance of generating any more RvR wins at this point. Redlands might get one if a SCAC team falls out and someone like Occidental jumps up by default (since there is unlikely to be anyone in the NWC or ASC that will have the record to do it).  That's about it though.