Go WEST young man (and NORTH)

[Kuiper]

Very nice analysis.  One interesting factor in Southwestern's SoS and RvR is that it was affected by a lightning and hailstorm.  Southwestern was supposed to host Mary Hardin-Baylor on Sept 24 and it was cancelled on account of the storm.  It's possible that the weather will cause Southwestern to miss out on a Pool C bid if it doesn't win the SCAC tournament and MHB stays in the rankings, which helps other teams but not Southwestern.

Ah yes, I knew there was an important cancelled game.  You're pointing out another example of something one wouldn't think would or should matter that much, but yes, that was a valuable game to lose especially when the rivals benefitted.

Btw, and I'm deferring to you and Mr. Boerger, but wouldn't you expect that MHB WILL drop out?

My guess is MHB drops out and Occidental comes back in because of two ranked wins (both against Redlands) and I think a higher SOS than Southwestern, but I'm no expert.  I'm not sure if Southwestern's win over TLU provides a bigger bump than Oxy's win over Redlands.  Oxy lost to TLU in the first game of the season after all.

[PaulNewman]

Very nice analysis.  One interesting factor in Southwestern's SoS and RvR is that it was affected by a lightning and hailstorm.  Southwestern was supposed to host Mary Hardin-Baylor on Sept 24 and it was cancelled on account of the storm.  It's possible that the weather will cause Southwestern to miss out on a Pool C bid if it doesn't win the SCAC tournament and MHB stays in the rankings, which helps other teams but not Southwestern.

Ah yes, I knew there was an important cancelled game.  You're pointing out another example of something one wouldn't think would or should matter that much, but yes, that was a valuable game to lose especially when the rivals benefitted.

Btw, and I'm deferring to you and Mr. Boerger, but wouldn't you expect that MHB WILL drop out?

My guess is MHB drops out and Occidental comes back in because of two ranked wins (both against Redlands) and I think a higher SOS than Southwestern, but I'm no expert.  I'm not sure if Southwestern's win over TLU provides a bigger bump than Oxy's win over Redlands.  Oxy lost to TLU in the first game of the season after all.

Yeah, when they won or lost should not matter by protocol.  So the only bigger bump (which must be very marginal in this example) would be beating (or losing to) a team with a better record that would provide a bigger boost on SoS.  But there should be no evaluation of whether Southwestern's very recent win over TLU was "better" than TLU's win over Oxy on opening day.

One more monkey wrench....if Redlands drops out lol.

[Kuiper]

Very nice analysis.  One interesting factor in Southwestern's SoS and RvR is that it was affected by a lightning and hailstorm.  Southwestern was supposed to host Mary Hardin-Baylor on Sept 24 and it was cancelled on account of the storm.  It's possible that the weather will cause Southwestern to miss out on a Pool C bid if it doesn't win the SCAC tournament and MHB stays in the rankings, which helps other teams but not Southwestern.

Ah yes, I knew there was an important cancelled game.  You're pointing out another example of something one wouldn't think would or should matter that much, but yes, that was a valuable game to lose especially when the rivals benefitted.

Btw, and I'm deferring to you and Mr. Boerger, but wouldn't you expect that MHB WILL drop out?

My guess is MHB drops out and Occidental comes back in because of two ranked wins (both against Redlands) and I think a higher SOS than Southwestern, but I'm no expert.  I'm not sure if Southwestern's win over TLU provides a bigger bump than Oxy's win over Redlands.  Oxy lost to TLU in the first game of the season after all.

Yeah, when they won or lost should not matter by protocol.  So the only bigger bump (which must be very marginal in this example) would be beating a team with a better record that would provide a bigger boost on SoS.  But there should be no evaluation of whether Southwestern's very recent win over TLU was "better" than TLU's win over Oxy on opening day.

One more monkey wrench....if Redlands drops out lol.

Very true.  And that could happen.  Redlands has played a SCIAC and local schedule almost exclusively.  The SCIAC has better teams at the bottom, but offers nothing on the RvR.  I could see deciding to rank only one team from the SCIAC and that should be Occidental given the two wins over Redlands.  That would help TLU of course.

[PaulNewman]

Yes, Oxy coming in helps TLU and I'm pretty certain Southwestern also is coming in which hurts TLU.  MHB going out helps Southwestern and hurts the others.

The more I think about it, I could see Redlands, MHB, and Pac Luth all dropping out (although I haven't researched who a third team coming in might be).  I would bet that both Oxy and Southwestern are coming in.

Pac Luth won't care because they have an AQ.  And their two ranked games [Colorado Coll (W) and Emory (L)] will have virtually no impact on anyone.

[PaulNewman]

OMG...now I'm confusing myself.  If Redlands drops out in the week 3 rankings then Oxy will have nothing for RvR except the loss to TLU.  This is where the process can drive you insane.  Oxy is in a position (if do not win the AQ) of caring (deeply) about Redlands staying ranked while simultaneously hoping the Bulldogs lose in the conference tournament (unless of course Oxy doesn't make the final).

[Kuiper]

Yes, Oxy coming in helps TLU and I'm pretty certain Southwestern also is coming in which hurts TLU.  MHB going out helps Southwestern and hurts the others.

The more I think about it, I could see Redlands, MHB, and Pac Luth all dropping out (although I haven't researched who a third team coming in might be).  I would bet that both Oxy and Southwestern are coming in.

Pac Luth won't care because they have an AQ.  And their two ranked games [Colorado Coll (W) and Emory (L)] will have virtually no impact on anyone.

Ironically, if Occidental is ranked, UC Santa Cruz suddenly has a ranked win and maybe that's enough considering it's insanely high strength of schedule (.616, which is highest in Region X and would be the highest in a bunch of other regions too).  It gets hurt by having to play a bunch of NAIA and NCAA DII teams, but it has an overall record of 10-5-3.

[PaulNewman]

Yes, Oxy coming in helps TLU and I'm pretty certain Southwestern also is coming in which hurts TLU.  MHB going out helps Southwestern and hurts the others.

The more I think about it, I could see Redlands, MHB, and Pac Luth all dropping out (although I haven't researched who a third team coming in might be).  I would bet that both Oxy and Southwestern are coming in.

Pac Luth won't care because they have an AQ.  And their two ranked games [Colorado Coll (W) and Emory (L)] will have virtually no impact on anyone.

Ironically, if Occidental is ranked, UC Santa Cruz suddenly has a ranked win and maybe that's enough considering it's insanely high strength of schedule (.616, which is highest in Region X and would be the highest in a bunch of other regions too).  It gets hurt by having to play a bunch of NAIA and NCAA DII teams, but it has an overall record of 10-5-3.

Might get them ranked but without getting a bid....too many teams above them that have far superior records and more than one ranked win, and unless this year is an exception, region X rarely gets more than one at large (or certainly not more than two).  If there was going to be a year for three this might be it.

Even with the latest Redlands conundrum for Oxy, I could still see Oxy getting ranked but not high enough for serious consideration of Pool C.  Some of the getting ranked (or not) outcomes won't get those teams in Pool C but may help some other team get a bid.

[Kuiper]

Yes, Oxy coming in helps TLU and I'm pretty certain Southwestern also is coming in which hurts TLU.  MHB going out helps Southwestern and hurts the others.

The more I think about it, I could see Redlands, MHB, and Pac Luth all dropping out (although I haven't researched who a third team coming in might be).  I would bet that both Oxy and Southwestern are coming in.

Pac Luth won't care because they have an AQ.  And their two ranked games [Colorado Coll (W) and Emory (L)] will have virtually no impact on anyone.

Ironically, if Occidental is ranked, UC Santa Cruz suddenly has a ranked win and maybe that's enough considering it's insanely high strength of schedule (.616, which is highest in Region X and would be the highest in a bunch of other regions too).  It gets hurt by having to play a bunch of NAIA and NCAA DII teams, but it has an overall record of 10-5-3.

Might get them ranked but without getting a bid....too many teams above them that have far superior records and more than one ranked win, and unless this year is an exception, region X rarely gets more than one at large (or certainly not more than two).  If there was going to be a year for three this might be it.

Even with the latest Redlands conundrum for Oxy, I could still see Oxy getting ranked but not high enough for serious consideration of Pool C.  Some of the getting ranked (or not) outcomes won't get those teams in Pool C but may help some other team get a bid.

I wasn't suggesting UC Santa Cruz would get a Pool C bid, but that they could be the third newly ranked team you were speculating about.  As a practical matter, I don't really see Pacific Lutheran getting dropped, but it could happen.

On the Pool C front for UC Santa Cruz, the interesting twist is that in the Coast-to-Conference tournament there's a decent chance if UCSC goes on a run and wins the QFs and Semis, but not the finals, it could get two ranked wins.  Christopher Newport, Mary Washington, Wisconsin-Platteville and Wisconsin-Whitewater are all going and the only other non-ranked team is Salisbury.    It's not completely implausible either because the tournament is at UC Santa Cruz, so it has home field advantage for whatever that is worth.

[PaulNewman]

@kuiper, yeah I knew what you were saying.  The more I fiddle with this I'm realizing the smart decision is just to wait until selection day!  Even this late in the season, too many variables!

[BTXCru18]

UST @ Schreiner

2-0 UST with about 20' left. Barring a miracle comeback, UST scrapes into the SCAC tournament and TLU drops down to 5th.

[D3Navy]

Yes, Oxy coming in helps TLU and I'm pretty certain Southwestern also is coming in which hurts TLU.  MHB going out helps Southwestern and hurts the others.

The more I think about it, I could see Redlands, MHB, and Pac Luth all dropping out (although I haven't researched who a third team coming in might be).  I would bet that both Oxy and Southwestern are coming in.

Pac Luth won't care because they have an AQ.  And their two ranked games [Colorado Coll (W) and Emory (L)] will have virtually no impact on anyone.

Ironically, if Occidental is ranked, UC Santa Cruz suddenly has a ranked win and maybe that's enough considering it's insanely high strength of schedule (.616, which is highest in Region X and would be the highest in a bunch of other regions too).  It gets hurt by having to play a bunch of NAIA and NCAA DII teams, but it has an overall record of 10-5-3.

The Banana Slugs oozing into contention.

[D3Navy]

UST @ Schreiner

2-0 UST with about 20' left. Barring a miracle comeback, UST scrapes into the SCAC tournament and TLU drops down to 5th.

If TLU doesn't get in, that is a disappointment given the behavior of St. Thomas in their head-to-head.

[D3Navy]

Solid win today by Trinity over Centenary.  The combination of Chen Adjei and Michael Meese has become formidable. 

Adjei is noticeably more confident this season and in the last few games, his pace with the ball and decision making has been superb.

Meese still seems to be a tad bit cautious due to previous injury, but he gets to the right place and every shot on goal has a chance.

Nice to see things coming together at the right time.

[Kuiper]

UST @ Schreiner

2-0 UST with about 20' left. Barring a miracle comeback, UST scrapes into the SCAC tournament and TLU drops down to 5th.

St. Thomas 3 - Schreiner 0

UST was confident about this game, sitting both Taty Aleman and Daniel Castro.  They also played two backup GKs and generally gave backups a lot of time.

Texas Lutheran is out of the SCAC tournament, which is being hosted by UST.

[BTXCru18]

A team that won't care what Wednesday's rankings are is Pacific Lutheran, as they locked up the NWC AQ this afternoon with a 5-0 win over Lewis & Clark. Whitworth beat Willamette 6-2, but can't catch PLU as they're 8 points back with only 2 games left.