Go WEST young man (and NORTH)

[Kuiper]

I thought it would be interesting to compare preseason polls with season-ending standings (pre-conference tournament ) to see how closely the Region X coaches pegged it for the three leagues that have concluded their regular seasons

Conclusion - you should pay attention to these preseason polls because the coaches were uncannily accurate for the most part!

SCIAC:

The coaches predicted it almost exactly, with only Cal Tech and La Verne flipping spots:

Preseason Poll

2023 SCIAC Men's Soccer Preseason Poll
1. Occidental, 65 points (3 first-place votes)
2. Redlands, 63 pts (1)
3. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, 62 pts (1)
4. California Lutheran, 56 pts (1)
5. Chapman, 55 pts (2)
6. Pomona-Pitzer, 44 pts (1)
7. La Verne, 27 pts
8. Caltech, 17 pts
9. Whittier, 16 pts

Actual Finish

1.  Occidental
2.  Redlands
3.  Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
4.  Cal Lutheran
5.  Chapman
6.  Pomona-Pitzer
7.  Cal Tech
8.  La Verne
9.  Whittier

SCAC:

Not quite as accurate as in the SCIAC, but they got the tournament teams right (albeit out of order) and the non-tournament teams exactly right.

Preseason Poll

1.   University of St. Thomas (7)   79
2.   Trinity University (2)   74
3.   Colorado College   59
4.   Southwestern University   57
5.   Texas Lutheran University    45
6.   Austin College   26
7.   Schreiner University   25
8.   Centenary College   21
9.   University of Dallas   19

Actual Finish

1. Colorado College
2. Trinity
3. Southwestern
4. St. Thomas
5. Texas Lutheran
6. Austin
7. Schreiner
8. Centenary
9. Dallas

ASC:

They got the tournament teams right (albeit flipping UTD and Hardin-Simmons) and got the rest right except for Howard Payne, which over-performed.

2023 ASC Preseason Men's Soccer Poll
Team (First Place Votes)   Points   2022 Record (ASC)
1. Mary Hardin-Baylor (10)   152   13-3-2 (7-1-1)
2. Concordia Texas (4)   138   10-3-4 (6-0-3)
3. UT Dallas (1)   117   9-6-4 (4-3-2)
4. Hardin-Simmons (1)   115   6-8-4 (5-4)
5. Ozarks (1)   81   10-5-5 (3-3-3)
6. LeTourneau   72   7-7-6 (3-4-2)
7. East Texas Baptist   58   7-7-3 (2-5-2)
8. McMurry (1)   48   5-9-3 (3-5-1)
9. Howard Payne   31   6-7-4 (3-4-2)
$ - Sul Ross State   -   0-11-4 (0-7-2)

Actual Finish

1. Mary Hardin-Baylor
2. Concordia
3. Hardin-Simons
4. UT Dallas
5. Ozarks
6. Howard Payne
7. LeTourneau
8. McMurry
9. East Texas Baptist
10. Sul Ross State

[Ron Boerger]

According to the SCAC front office, Colorado College's 7-0-0 run was the first time in almost a decade (2014) that the conference's regular season champion got through the schedule unblemished.  All of their victories against the other top five squads were by a single goal with only the St. Thomas win being on the road. 

[Kuiper]

According to the SCAC front office, Colorado College's 7-0-0 run was the first time in almost a decade (2014) that the conference's regular season champion got through the schedule unblemished.  All of their victories against the other top five squads were by a single goal with only the St. Thomas win being on the road.

Interesting fact!  That's probably in part because it's so hard to be consistently dominant given the travel in the SCAC.  Having said that, I still don't get the sense that Colorado College has been very dominant this season.  They have obviously done well, but, as you say, the games against other SCAC top teams haven't been easy by any stretch and they have had the advantage of playing most of them at home and playing St. Thomas away during its worst stretch of the season.  I could easily see one of the other teams winning the tournament.  I think Trinity has looked very good lately, but I think their fortunes may rest on JonConnor Rule.  Trinity's defense is far from airtight and its GK is competent, but isn't going to carry the team.  Rule was everywhere v. St. Thomas and he took a knock at one point (although he came back on).  If that is a lingering problem or someone like Meese is limited, Trinity may have issues.

[BTXCru18]

According to the SCAC front office, Colorado College's 7-0-0 run was the first time in almost a decade (2014) that the conference's regular season champion got through the schedule unblemished.  All of their victories against the other top five squads were by a single goal with only the St. Thomas win being on the road.

Interesting fact!  That's probably in part because it's so hard to be consistently dominant given the travel in the SCAC.  Having said that, I still don't get the sense that Colorado College has been very dominant this season.  They have obviously done well, but, as you say, the games against other SCAC top teams haven't been easy by any stretch and they have had the advantage of playing most of them at home and playing St. Thomas away during its worst stretch of the season.  I could easily see one of the other teams winning the tournament.  I think Trinity has looked very good lately, but I think their fortunes may rest on JonConnor Rule.  Trinity's defense is far from airtight and its GK is competent, but isn't going to carry the team.  Rule was everywhere v. St. Thomas and he took a knock at one point (although he came back on).  If that is a lingering problem or someone like Meese is limited, Trinity may have issues.

Was discussing this earlier with a friend... CC having to go on the road for the tournament may not bode well for them. Good shot for an at-large if they can't take care of business. Especially with an additional RvR win if they take down UST again in the semi, but lose the final. Nearly a lock at this point for me.

[D3Navy]

Gonna predict it now: Trinity 3, Southwestern 1 on Friday.

The TU offense is clicking, personnel are in place, and a quiet momentum is with the team.

[Kuiper]

Preview of the ASC quarterfinals tomorrow (Tues 10/31):

#5 Ozarks @ #4 UT Dallas

UTD beat Ozarks 3-1 when they played three weeks ago at UTD.  It was closer than the final score though.  Ozarks actually led at half 1-0 and UTD didn't tie it up until the 69th minute.  Ozarks committed a penalty in the box in the 84th minute and UTD took the lead on the ensuing PK.  It added an insurance goal in the 88th minute to finish them off.  UTD is coming off a lopsided win over McMurry, but before that it tied LeTourneau and lost to Hardin-Simmons.  It's been a long time since it beat Colorado College.  I don't think Ozarks will win this one, but they just played Hardin-Simmons close, losing 1-0, and won two in a row against East Texas Baptist and McMurry.  Nevertheless, Ozarks is pretty far away and does better at home.  It's a 320 mile drive from University of Ozarks to UT Dallas and it takes roughly 5 hours without traffic around DFW.  The last game at UTD where Ozarks played them tough was on the weekend with a week's rest.  This is a quick turnaround on a weekday after a game on Saturday.

#6 Howard Payne @ #3 Hardin-Simmons

Hardin-Simmons has the strongest SoS in the ASC this season at .583 (as of 10/23), in part because they played pre-conference games against Lynchburg and Virginia Wesleyan, as well as most of the top SCAC teams.  H-S even got ties v. Southwestern and Trinity.  Its only loss in the ASC was a 3-2 defeat to MHB.  It also beat Howard Payne 2-0 two weeks ago in a game where it outshot HP 24-9 and had a 13-2 edge on corner kicks.  Howard Payne is mostly happy to be here, out-performing its preseason ranking and beating LeTourneau for the spot.  It tied Sul Ross State and lost badly to East Texas Baptist in the last few games and those teams got destroyed by most teams. H-S should take this one fairly easily, although HP will likely park the bus and pray for chaos.

#1 Mary Hardin-Baylor and #2 Concordia TX have a bye to the semifinals on Thursday.

[Kuiper]

Here are the USC regional rankings, which are not to be confused with the NCAA ones that can affect tournament bids and seeding

Region X - Poll 8 - October 31, 2023
Rank    School    Prev    W-L-T
1    Pacific Lutheran University    1    13-1-4
2    Colorado College    2    13-2-1
3    Trinity University (Texas)    4    11-2-2
4    Southwestern University    5    10-2-3
5    University of Saint Thomas (Texas)    6    11-3-1
6    Texas Lutheran University    3    14-3-0
7    Occidental College    NR    11-3-3
8    University of Redlands    7    12-2-2

Occidental replaces Mary Hardin-Baylor, which reflects MHB's loss to Concordia TX and Oxy's win over Redlands

[Kuiper]

ASC quarterfinals results:

Hardin-Simmons 2 - Howard Payne 1

This game was way harder than it should have been for Hardin-Simmons and it was a costly victory, leaving them in a weakened position for the semifinal match against Concordia TX on Thursday.  Howard Payne came into this match 3-11-2 overall and 2-4-1 in the ASC.  Nevertheless, it scored first in the 32nd minute to take a 1-0 lead, but that seemed to ignite H-S, which came back with a tying goal 8 minutes later and took the lead 2-1 on a PK in the dying seconds of the first half.  In trying to maintain that lead, though, one of H-S' players, J.J. Sisson, got a red card in the 69th minute.  This is Sisson's second red card of the season.  It could be costly without him in the semis because he's a senior defender who is their third leading scorer, leader in assists and tied for second in shots taken and shots on goal. He also got the assist on the one non-PK goal against Howard Payne tonight.   J.J. Sisson has been a locked-in starter all four years at H-S, so they lose a very experienced player for a difficult match.

UT Dallas 5 - Ozarks 1

UTD dominated this game, with five different players scoring goals that were spread out with two in the first half and three in the second half.  I figured Ozarks would have a difficult time having to take a 5 hour+ bus ride after playing on Saturday, but I didn't figure it would be this difficult.  UTD is now on a roll.  This is the second 5-1 victory in three days after beating McMurry 5-1 on Saturday.

Semifinals on Thursday 11/2 with both games at Mary Hardin-Baylor

Mary Hardin-Baylor v. UT Dallas

Concordia v. Hardin-Simmons

[Kuiper]

SCIAC tournament semifinals preview for games Wednesday night:

Cal Lutheran @ Occidental

Oxy comes in flying high after beating Redlands and La Verne to end the season, while Cal Lu kind of backed its way into the playoffs, losing to La Verne and Redlands in two of the last three and squeaking by last place Whittier, 1-0.  Nevertheless, throw all of that out the window in this game.  Every team seems to have an opponent that matches up well against them, gets up for their games against them, and appears to know how to frustrate them and shut them down.  Cal Lu is that team for Oxy.  They played twice in 2023 and the games ended in 1-1 and 0-0 ties.  They played twice in 2022 and the games ended in 1-1 and 0-0 ties.  Cal Lu also has experience in these kinds of matches, tying Redlands last year in the first round through double OT and beating them in PKs before falling to eventual champion Chapman in the semis.  I would still expect Oxy to win given home field advantage, but I expect Cal Lu will make things difficult for them.

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps @ Redlands

Redlands beat CMS 2-1 the only time they played this year, but that was almost six weeks ago.  Redlands rebounded from its loss to Oxy to beat fellow semi-finalist Cal Lu 3-1 on Saturday, while CMS had a pretty poor end to the season against two teams that didn't even make the playoffs:  losing 3-1 to Pomona-Pitzer and tying Cal Tech 1-1.  CMS does get back defender Chase Keir, who had to sit out the Cal Tech game after receiving a red card late in the Pomona-Pitzer game.  CMS is going to have to up its game to beat Redlands away.  They have the talent to do it -- they beat Oxy away 3-1 a few weeks ago -- but it's probably been that long since they were firing on all cylinders against an opponent that didn't just roll over for them.

[BTXCru18]

ASC quarterfinals results:

Hardin-Simmons 2 - Howard Payne 1

This game was way harder than it should have been for Hardin-Simmons and it was a costly victory, leaving them in a weakened position for the semifinal match against Concordia TX on Thursday.  Howard Payne came into this match 3-11-2 overall and 2-4-1 in the ASC.  Nevertheless, it scored first in the 32nd minute to take a 1-0 lead, but that seemed to ignite H-S, which came back with a tying goal 8 minutes later and took the lead 2-1 on a PK in the dying seconds of the first half.  In trying to maintain that lead, though, one of H-S' players, J.J. Sisson, got a red card in the 69th minute.  This is Sisson's second red card of the season.  It could be costly without him in the semis because he's a senior defender who is their third leading scorer, leader in assists and tied for second in shots taken and shots on goal. He also got the assist on the one non-PK goal against Howard Payne tonight.   J.J. Sisson has been a locked-in starter all four years at H-S, so they lose a very experienced player for a difficult match.

UT Dallas 5 - Ozarks 1

UTD dominated this game, with five different players scoring goals that were spread out with two in the first half and three in the second half.  I figured Ozarks would have a difficult time having to take a 5 hour+ bus ride after playing on Saturday, but I didn't figure it would be this difficult.  UTD is now on a roll.  This is the second 5-1 victory in three days after beating McMurry 5-1 on Saturday.

Semifinals on Thursday 11/2 with both games at Mary Hardin-Baylor

Mary Hardin-Baylor v. UT Dallas

Concordia v. Hardin-Simmons

Does red card accumulation reset after conference play ends like yellow cards do? If not, I think it's a standard two-game suspension for a player's second red card on the season. Not advocating for that, but if reds do not reset, HSU would be without Sissen for an eventual championship game if they get past CTX(Re: Sissen's red vs. UMHB).

[College Soccer Observer]

It is a misnomer that yellow cards reset.  The total for suspension for yellow card accumulation goes up to 8 once the postseason starts.  Players who never got to 5 in the regular season are not suspended until they get to 8.  A player who had one regular season yellow could pick up 6 more without being suspended.  Red card totals are cumulative throughout the year.  Each red card after the first carries an additional penalty that is separate from the penalty with the red card itself.  Example:  fighting red cards are two game suspensions.  A player who was ejected for two yellows early in the season gets a fighting red card.  The player sits two games for the fighting plus an additional game for the second red card of the season.

[BTXCru18]

It is a misnomer that yellow cards reset.  The total for suspension for yellow card accumulation goes up to 8 once the postseason starts.  Players who never got to 5 in the regular season are not suspended until they get to 8.  A player who had one regular season yellow could pick up 6 more without being suspended.  Red card totals are cumulative throughout the year.  Each red card after the first carries an additional penalty that is separate from the penalty with the red card itself.  Example:  fighting red cards are two game suspensions.  A player who was ejected for two yellows early in the season gets a fighting red card.  The player sits two games for the fighting plus an additional game for the second red card of the season.

Thanks, CSO.

[College Soccer Observer]

Forgot to add that players who have already reached 5 or more during the regular season will still sit when they get to 8, 10, 12, etc.  The idea is to reward players who did not pick up a lot of yellows during the season.

[Kuiper]

REGION X - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 25, 2023

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Colorado College	11-2-1	0.598	4-1-1	11-2-1	Y
2.	Texas Lutheran	14-2-0	0.536	2-2-0	14-2-0	Y
3.	St. Thomas (Texas)	10-2-0	0.544	2-1-0	11-2-1	Y
4.	Trinity (Texas)	9-2-1	0.554	1-2-0	9-2-2	Y
5.	Redlands	8-1-2	0.536	-0	11-1-2	Y
6.	Mary Hardin-Baylor	9-3-1	0.536	0-3-0	9-3-2	Y
7.	Pacific Lutheran	11-1-4	0.517	1-1-0	11-1-4	Y

New Region X regional rankings

Region X          
1    Colorado Col.    13-2-1    13-2-1
2    Trinity (TX)    11-2-1    11-2-2
3    Texas Lutheran    14-3-0    14-3-0
4    St. Thomas (TX)    11-3-0    12-3-1
5    Southwestern (TX)    10-2-3    10-2-3
6    Occidental    10-3-3    11-3-3
7    Redlands    9-2-2    12-2-2

Pacific Lutheran and Mary Hardin-Baylor drop out.  This affects Colorado College (which played both) and the other SCAC schools (all of whom but Southwestern beat MHB).  Texas Lutheran picks up a ranked win with Occidental entering the rankings.

[Christan Shirk]

REGION X - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2023

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Colorado College	13-2-1	0.570	4-1-1	13-2-1	1
2.	Trinity (Texas)	11-2-1	0.552	2-2-0	11-2-2	4
3.	Texas Lutheran	14-3-0	0.541	2-2-0	14-3-0	2
4.	St. Thomas (Texas)	11-3-0	0.537	2-2-0	12-3-1	3
5.	Southwestern	10-2-3	0.529	2-2-0	10-2-3	--
6.	Occidental	10-3-3	0.522	2-1-0	11-3-3	--
7.	Redlands	9-2-2	0.540	--	12-2-2	5