Go WEST young man (and NORTH)

[Kuiper]

Just guessing here but, CC just might have the highest SoS in the nation. Stand-alone #1 if they get results against MW and CNU. I expect them to make a deep run again.

At least on Massey, Colorado College's strength-of-schedule (pre-CNU and UMW games) is 133, which is third worst among the top 15 teams.  That's dragged down primarily by playing Fontbonne (#364 in Massey) and Concordia (MN) (#283 in Massey) in the its first two games.

Fwiw, #1 UMW and #2 Midd are the two other teams with worse SoS.. perhaps a testament to common wisdom of not putting that much weight on Massey week to week. Also fwiw, though not counted in SoS, folks may find it interesting that Colorado College beat CSU-Pueblo in its first preseason exhibition match. CSU-Pueblo has made the DII national championship game the last 2 years.

General question: does anyone know how the Massey SoS works? As just one example, Chicago's SoS of 5 seems strange given that its played games have not been against any serious top 25 teams. Only 2 of 4 were in top 25 - St. Olaf (23) and the other Gustavus Adolphus (8). The others were in the mid- to high-100s. SoS according to the key is for played games only. Its SSF (for future games) is 1, but it is playing mostly significantly lower ranked teams.

I don't know the underlying details of Massey's SOS, but in Simple Coach's rankings thread there was a question about whether Chicago had 1 or 2 losses and Simple Coach noted that he relied on Massey, which said that they had 2 losses.  Turns out that Massey includes a scrimmage game against Eastern Illinois as a real game since it counted for Eastern Illinois, so it's possible that is what bumps up Chicago's SoS.  Eastern Illinois is not a good D1 team (their only win is against University of Chicago), but perhaps a D1 team is automatically slotted higher than a D3 team.

[Ron Boerger]

You can pull up the global Massey Rankings by selecting "csoc2024" as the conference.

E Illinois is ranked 315
Colorado Coll is 292
Chicago is 255

Early season so you are seeing a lot of big moves here.

[Kuiper]

Sul Ross State 2 - University of St. Thomas 0

Sul Ross was a bad D3 team the last few years (1-21-9 the last two years) that has now transitioned to DII. It looks like they pretty completely overhauled their roster in the transition, bringing in some international players and juco transfers. They still aren't great, but they have shored up the defense with some better center backs and they are generally more athletic.  Two years ago, St. Thomas beat them 7-0 though.  This game felt like a toothless version of that St. Thomas team that beat them in 2022.  They don't have the offensive firepower this year to overwhelm a team (they were outshot 16-7 and had only 1 shot on goal to 10 for Sul Ross), but they somehow retained the moronic arguing with the referee that plagued them in 2022 (and 2023).  One player -- Daniel Espinosa -- was given a yellow card for arguing with the AR about a call and then when Espinosa turned right around and argued with the Center Ref about the call or the yellow he was given a second yellow/Red and thrown out 12 seconds after the first yellow in the 63rd minute.  Classic.  To be fair, this ref was pretty quick with the cards for anyone giving him any lip -- he gave a second yellow/red to a Sul Ross player for saying something to the ref in the 79th minute, but at least that kid's first yellow was 12 minutes earlier.  Still, the ref had already given 5 yellows before the first one to Espinosa, who should have known better as a senior.

As an aside, it's kind of interesting to me that St. Thomas even scheduled Sul Ross and agreed to play there.  It's probably close to a 9 hour drive in a bus from Houston to Alpine, where Sul Ross is located, so it's a haul.  Coupled with the fact that Sul Ross is DII now and St. Thomas also played North American, a non-traditional NAIA opponent, I'm wondering if some of the typical D3 non-conference schools in the vicinity are no longer willing to play St. Thomas due to the antics of the last few years.  More likely, the new coach from out of the area meant they were playing catch-up and couldn't be picky in scheduling, but it's just a strange game to schedule, especially since it's the only D3 team on Sul Ross' schedule this season.

[Kuiper]

Hardin-Simmons 2 - Concordia (TX) 1

This game was Exhibit A for people who argue against playing out of the back.  Concordia plays out of the back, pretty religiously, to one of the following:  the outside backs on the ground or, if higher up, in a ping in the air, the center backs, or to a center midfielder coming back for the ball who passes out to one of the center backs or to the GK if he drags a defender with him.  That works fine if the players are all in sync and commit no mistakes and if the players know WHY they are making the passes they are making. It's not just about playing keep away. You're trying to move the opponent so you can unbalance them and look for an opportunity to break lines or go over top.  In this case, the Concordia players didn't seem to know why they were inviting pressure, which led to some indecision on the ball, which led to getting stripped of the ball and two goals in quick succession midway through the first half that won them the game.  I actually really like playing out of the back and believe in it, but when your players don't really have the technical skill to do it or, even more importantly, the decisionmaking speed and understanding to break the press, it's a killer. 

Incidentally, what's with Texas teams today and stupid double yellows?  Concordia scores a late goal in the 86th minute and one of its players gets in a dustup, two yellows are issued, but the Concordia player already had one, so he gets ejected.  You're team scored, you're only down 2-1, there are 5 minutes left, and you already are on a yellow. Get back to your side! 

East Texas Baptist 4 - McMurry 1

McMurry scored a quick goal in the 10th minute and I thought my prediction that ETBU might be a contender in the ASC was wildly inaccurate.  ETBU roared back, though, and scored 4 unanswered - 2 in each half - to make this a route and got to 5-2 on the season.

UT Dallas 1 - Centenary 0

Surprisingly close game.  UTD wins on a PK in the 69th minute after outshooting Centenary 22-8 and 10-2 on goal.

[Freddyfud]

I actually really like playing out of the back and believe in it, but when your players don't really have the technical skill to do it or, even more importantly, the decisionmaking speed and understanding to break the press, it's a killer. 

Worthy of a pin.  Just to add all XI need conviction.  One exception is all it takes to disrupt.  I'm guessing this is more challenging in a collegiate setting with class turnover and transfers as opposed to club or academy where some teams have played together for many years and instinctually understand where teammates will be or otherwise know how to solve problems based on actual experience with one another.

[Kuiper]

A few results from Friday night (besides the Colorado College game, which I discussed in the National Perspectives thread)

Trinity 3 - Mary Hardin-Baylor 1

UMHB got on the scoreboard first with a goal in the 17th minute, but Trinity equalized in the 23rd minute and scored two more after half to secure the victory, it's first away from home this season.  Trinity is now 5-0-2 and probably won't be tested again until a string of games from Oct. 6 - Oct. 13 against Concordia TX, Texas Lutheran, and Southwestern.  UMHB still seems like the leader for the SCAC, although Hardin-Simmons and East Texas Baptist are plausible challengers.

Redlands 1 - UC Santa Cruz 1

Redlands has to be disappointed by this result, because they took a 1-0 lead in the 23rd minute and clung to it until UCSC finally broke through and equalized in the 86th minute.  The issue is that Redlands goal was arguably against the run of play and this just continues a longer term problem for Redlands in getting going offensively.  Redlands also might have an issue in goal since their starting GK went out in the 73rd minute and the goal was scored on the backup (not that it was necessarily his fault, it was a breakaway where he deflected the shot and UCSC scored on the rebound).  For UCSC, this game was another game where they resorted to the press and fouling a lot, which provided a good number of offensive chances, but a combination of goalkeeping, luck (one hit the crossbar early on) and lack pf precision kept them off the scoresheet.  In that sense, it resembled UCSC's 1-0 victory over LaVerne on Wednesday, a team you would have expected that they would score more against (after all, LaVerne is 1-5 and gave up 4 goals in a loss to Whitman last Friday and 3 goals in a loss to Pomona-Pitzer a week ago).  UC Santa Cruz is now 5-0-3 and has proven that they can compete with some of the preseason favorites in Region X (beating Pac Lu and tying Oxy and Redlands), but I still can't figure them out because they can also stumble against some of the middling teams (e.g., ties against Whittier and Willamette, narrow win over LaVerne).  I tend to think the problem is that they don't have dominant players on the ball who can create on their own.  The press and chaos ball can be effective, but inconsistent, offensive strategies and one of the less-talked about negatives of that kind of physical pressing play is that it can leave you vulnerable in the back (hence giving up 2 goals apiece in ties to Whittier and Willamette, two teams that have been shut down offensively by other teams).

[Kuiper]

Caltech 3 - Pomona-Pitzer 3 in the 53rd minute

This game is bonkers and worth a watch.  Pomona-Pitzer went up 2-0 with two goals, 50 seconds apart, in the first three minutes of the game.  Caltech ties it up on two goals, 1 minute 30 seconds apart, in the 30th and 31st minutes of the game.  Then, Cal Tech's Ishaan Matripragada scores on a great free kick in the the 52nd minute and 39 seconds later, Pomona-Pitzer ties it up.  Plus, Pomona-Pitzer uses a drone for all free kicks and corner kicks to provide an overhead view!

FINAL:  Caltech 3 - Pomona-Pitzer 3

Pretty even game (or, really a game of runs).  Neither team came in with the intent of bunkering.  They just played it straight up.  For as many goals as were conceded, both GKs had pretty strong saves or chance-prevention saves (including each with game-saving saves in the last few minutes)

[stlawus]

Cal Tech coach could end up having the pick of the litter when it comes to head coaching vacancies, if he even wants to leave that is.  Just an incredible coaching job, I'm a major fan.

[SimpleCoach]

Cal Tech coach could end up having the pick of the litter when it comes to head coaching vacancies, if he even wants to leave that is.  Just an incredible coaching job, I'm a major fan.

Seriously.   

SC.

[Kuiper]

Some Northwest Conference action this afternoon

Pacific Lutheran 1 - Willamette 1

Both teams may be a bit down this season, but they still will contend for the NWC championship.  Willamette scored early in the first half and looked to be heading for a 1-0 victory, but Pac Lu got the equalizer in the 77th minute.  Probably a deserved tie, which basically means that both teams stay in the race given that neither is likely to be in contention for a Pool C bid.  The return game at Willamette on Oct 20th could loom large unless one of the other NWC teams break away from the pack.

Whitman 3 - Pacific 2

Whitman was up 2-0 on the first half and up 3-1 right up until the 87th minute and almost let Pacific come back with a PK.  Whitman is now 4-1 and it's only loss was 2-1 at Redlands, but they have yet to shutout an opponent and they've only held a team below 2 goals once.  If they don't contend for the NWC title, it will be because of the seeming inability to play shutdown defense when needed.

Puget Sound 3 - Linfield 2

This is virtually the same game as the Whitman-Pacific game (kind of bizarre actually), down to the order of the goals, with Puget Sound going up 2-0 in the first half and then 3-1 in the 78th minute and then holding on to a 3-2 lead after Linfield hits a PK in the 82nd minute.  When you outshoot a team 20-9, including 12-6 in the second half, as Puget Sound did, your opponent shouldn't score 2 goals on you that half.

Whitworth 1 - George Fox 0

Whitworth takes care of business at home, but just barely after scoring in the 21st minute and holding on the rest of the game.  Whitworth had 15 shots to 9 for George Fox, but unless Whitworth finds a way to get Cole Friesen untracked, I don't see them making noise in the NWC.  George Fox suffers their first loss of the season after a kind schedule to start the season and stands at 5-1, but probably only demonstrates that they are closer to the middle than the bottom this year.

[Kuiper]

Some SCIAC results

Occidental 3 - Whittier 1

Whittier took a 1-0 lead in the 8th minute, which seemed to wake Oxy up from its slumber.  They reeled off 3 unanswered to win the game.  This wasn't the kind of dominant performance you would expect from Oxy in recent years, with the shooting stat mostly even although Whittier was generally on its heels playing defense for long stretches.  Still, Oxy is 4-1-1 and 2-0 in the SCIAC and the name of the game is survive and advance.

CMS 3 - Chapman 0

CMS took awhile to get on the scoreboard, before scoring two quick ones in the 31st and 37th minutes.  It added one early in the second half to complete the route, which included a brace from Rafael Ortero.  As I've said, how Ortero goes, so goes CMS.  Big turnaround from a 4-2 loss to Cal Lu mid-week.  CMS is now 5-1-1.

LaVerne 2 - Cal Lutheran 0

Cal Lu beats CMS 4-2 mid-week and then loses to LaVerne 2-0, which was 1-5 coming into this game and it's only victory was against Southern California Leadership Academy?  What the heck?  It's not like there was a red card or some lucky goals involved. LaVerne outshot Cal Lu 26-15 and 7-3 on corner kicks.  LaVerne was at home, but it's not like they have some kind of fortress out there.  Heck, there were only 30 people in attendance.  Only thing I can figure is that Cal Lu was overconfident, but they usually find ways to score.  Only other teams to shutout Cal Lu this season are Messiah and Trinity and I don't think anyone has uttered LaVerne's name in the same sentence as Messiah and Trinity before.  Plus, as I mentioned in a previous post, LaVerne gave up 4 goals to Whitman and 3 goals to Pomona-Pitzer.

[Kuiper]

Some SCAC results of interest to me

Mary Washington 1 - Colorado College 0

I'll let others provide more color for this game, but I think it's fair to say that Colorado College acquitted itself well on its East Coast trip, tying #13 CNU while playing a man down the second half and getting edged out by #1 Mary Washington on a goal scored early in the second half off a rebound from a keeper save.

Concordia TX 2 - Howard Payne 1

They rebounded from a deflating 2-1 loss to Hardin-Simmons, but not in impressive fashion against a winless HP team.  Howard Payne scored the first goal in the 60th minute and held on to the 1-0 lead until Concordia scored goals in 86th and 90th minutes to secure the victory.  Maybe the fact that it was senior night for Concordia, which has a whopping 15 seniors, was part of the problem since some kids might have gotten more minutes than they might have otherwise, but it's not a great sign.  Trinity beat Howard Payne 8-0 a week ago.

Hardin-Simmons 2 - St. Thomas 1

St. Thomas scored first in the 9th minute, but let H-S creep back into the game with a goal in 24th and another 8 minutes into the second half to secure the victory.  UST continued its pattern from the Sul Ross State game of being toothless on offense, yet undisciplined with the refs.  They had 5 yellows and a straight red card for Tony Castro in the 90th minute.  That's two red cards in two games.  These aren't conference games, so UST is still in the hunt in the SCAC, but I don't see them making much noise there unless they change drastically.  I tend to think that not only are they missing Taty Aleman offensively, but Coach Ramirez has brought in a diamond formation in the midfield that is not taking advantage of the offensive players they do have.  Hardin-Simmons goes to 4-2-1.

Southwestern 3 - Carthage 2

Southwestern is now 5-0-1 as it plays the last of the non-conference, non-Texas teams on its schedule.  In this game, they were down 2-1 in the 64th minute before storming back with goals in 66th and 82nd minutes to win the game.  Not sure how strong Carthage is, but Southwestern continues a string of decent form with it's third win in a row after beating Whitworth and Cal Lutheran.

Centenary (LA) 3 - East Texas Baptist 1

ETBU outshot Centenary 20-9, but they were tied on shots on goal at 7 apiece and Centenary was more clinical in its finishes, taking a 1-0 lead into halftime and then breaking a 1-1 tie with goals in the 72nd and 83rd minutes. I suspect Centenary is the top of the bottom of the SCAC this year, after tying Howard Payne and beating ETBU, but we'll know more once they start SCAC play hosting an Ozarks team on Friday that lost to East Texas Baptist the second game of the season.

[Kuiper]

Sunday Northwest Conference results

Pacific Lutheran 5 - Linfield 0

It took them a little while to break through on 1-7 Linfield, but once the Lutes scored in the 22nd minute, the dam broke and they rattled off four straight to complete the route.  It probably felt good after the 1-1 tie with Willamette, but beating Linfield is going to be familiar for most NWC teams this year.  Probably the positive takeaway from this game, where the Lutes outshot Linfield 23-8 is that they had 5 different scorers.  Trevor Thompson, who scored 1 goal today, has 8 of the 15 goals PLU has scored this season and almost a third of all of their short, has carried them in many games.

Whitman 2 - George Fox 2

Whitman was up 2-1 at half and looked to be coasting to a narrow,, but secure, win after outshooting GF 13-6 in the first half, but it led down its guard for a moment in the second half and gave away 2 points.  If Whitman can't sweep Pacific and George Fox at home, it's going to have an uphill climb in the NWC despites its 4-1-1 record.  George Fox, on the other hand, has to feel pretty good about its 4-1-1 record.  A 1-0 loss to Whitworth and a 2-2 tie to Whitman is a decent road trip for them.

Whitworth 0 - Pacific 0

Just like Whitman, Whitworth can't feel good about tying with Pacific at home, especially after having double the number of shots.  I think the lesson from this weekend might be that Whitman and Whitworth are probably taking a step back to the middle this season when last season they were challenging Pacific Lutheran for the title.  Pacific, on the other hand,  probably feels OK with a tie and a narrow loss on its road trip.

Willamette 0 - Puget Sound 0

Third tie in the NWC today. Parity reigns, although at least Willamette's ties was at Puget Sound and it can rectify that by winning at home.

[Kuiper]

One game in Texas tonight

UT Dallas 6 - McMurry 0

To preface my remarks, UT Dallas is transitioning to DII and, while it is playing a D3 schedule, it is not eligible for the ASC tournament or the NCAA tournament.  It may even have gotten some players in anticipation of the move who are above D3 quality who will be on scholarship next year.  That said, UTD isn't a super team.  Emory beat them 4-1 in Colorado Springs and they tied Ohio Northern 1-1.  They haven't dominated against other local D3 opponents either, beating Centenary 1-0, Schreiner 4-2, and Austin 3-1. Against McMurry, however, UT Dallas not only had to take the foot off the gas, but had to slam the brakes to avoid winning by more than 6-0.  UTD outshot McMurry 36-1 and 19-0 in shots on goal.  UTD had 12 corners to 0 for McMurry and McMurry's goalkeepers made 12 saves to 0 for UTD.  UTD played 28 players significant minutes (17 minutes or more) and most of their starters played less than a half with only two playing 53 minutes.  It didn't help that McMurry also cleared its benches, playing 27 players, but they kept in three starters for more than 80 minutes and a bunch of their subs played approximately 10 minutes or less.  Their backup GK only played 9 minutes, but the poor kid faced 8 shots during those 9 minutes and gave up 2 goals.  I coached a team like this in AYSO U-littles years ago and one of my more promising future investment bankers figured out that the other team would forfeit if they beat us by more than 5 goals so he turned around and shot on his own goal . . . and missed.  You might have thought the McMurry players would have at least fouled a lot to try to slow down UTD, but they only committed 7 fouls to 4 for UTD.

The crazier thing is McMurry is not winless or anything like that.  They are 2-4-1, having beaten Lyon and University of Dallas and tied Howard Payne.  They lost badly to Hardin-Simmons (5-0), East Texas Baptist (4-1) and Mary Hardin-Baylor (3-0), but the domination wasn't this bad in any of those games.  Maybe the other coaches did a better job of slowing their teams down early, but this was UGGGGLY.

I wonder if Trinity College or Lewis & Clark has any interest in taking a trip down to Abilene, Texas for a game?

[Kuiper]

Preview of games to watch in Region X on Wednesday 9/25:

Cal Lutheran @ Chapman 4 pm PDT

Which Cal Lu team is going to show up?  The one that dominated CMS 4-2 or the one that lost to Laverne when it was 1-5?  Chapman is 1-5 and has gone winless the last five games, including a 3-0 loss to CMS on Saturday, but it has its moments, playing tough at Redlands before losing 1-0.  Cal Lu should win this game and the ULV loss should motivate them, but Chapman will probably make the game tight playing at home.

Puget Sound @ Pacific Lutheran 4 pm PDT

Both teams come into this game getting wins against Linfield and ties against Willamette at their home fields on opening weekend of NWC play.  Difference is that PLU stuffed Linfield 5-0 (albeit in the second game of the weekend when Linfield was worn down), while Puget Sound let Linfield back into a game they were winning 2-0 and had to hold on for a 3-2 win.  The Lutes should win this game, if for no other reason than the game is at Pacific Lutheran, which hasn't lost a game since the first game of the season and hasn't lost at home at all.  Puget Sound has lost all of its away games and won or tied all of its home games.

St. Thomas TX @ Mary Hardin-Baylor 7:30 pm CDT

Both teams are coming into the game limping a bit.  UMHB lost to Trinity at home 3-1 and UST has lost two away games in a row to Sul Ross St and Hardin-Simmons.  Both teams have shown the ability to beat weaker teams, but neither team has proven they can win against the stronger teams (unless you still consider St. Olaf, a stronger team, but that was a long time ago for UMHB).  It's a toss-up but I suppose I would take UMHB since it's at home.  With red cards in each of the last game, UST just looks like they could self-destruct at any time and I don't see a lot of offensive cohesiveness that is necessary to break down an organized defense.

Whitworth @ Whitman 5:30 pm PDT

The Battle of the Whits is always worth watching regardless of the records.  In this case, neither team is hitting on all cylinders.  I think Whitman's been the stronger of the two teams, but both teams came out of the opening weekend of NWC play with a tie and a win.  Difference is that Whitworth beat George Fox 1-0 and Whitman tied them 2-2 after a late equalizing goal by GF, while Whitman beat Pacific 3-2 and Whitworth tied Pacific 0-0.  That basically sums up the difference between the teams (at least recently).  Whitworth doesn't score much (never more than 1 against non-NAIA opponents) and has tightened up its defense after a bad Texas trip and Whitman both scores and leaks goals and has done so all season.  If Whitworth could get Cole Friesen untracked, it might have a chance, but I think Whitman has the upper-hand at home.

Redlands @ CMS 7:00 pm PDT

CMS seems to have righted the ship with a 3-0 victory over Chapman, after losing to Cal Lu 4-2.  Redlands also beat Chapman in the mid week game, but only 1-0 and then tied UC Santa Cruz 1-1.  CMS has more firepower than Redlands offensively, but the secret to slowing down CMS is containing Rafael Otero, which Cal Lu did (although he still got off 5 shots, 2 on goal) and Chapman did not (where Otero scored a brace).  Redlands might be able to do that, but a wildcard will be starting GK Brady Bachman.  He went off in the 74th minute of the Santa Cruz game with a 1-0 lead and his replacement, Jason Salmeron, gave up the goal. They've made that switch once before, with Bachman coming off up 1-0 in the 60th minute against Puget Sound and Salmeron giving up the equalizer before Redlands won it in the 81st.  I don't know if there was an injury or if Coach Perez just wants to give Salmeron minutes, but it's only happened twice and Salmeron has given up goals both times in very limited minutes.  If this is injury related, give the edge to CMS.  I would probably give CMS the edge anyway playing at home.

Pomona-Pitzer @ Occidental 7 pm PDT

Oxy won its first two SCIAC games, but not convincingly like it has done in the past against these opponents.  Caltech was able to limit them to 1 goal and Whittier scored first and was tied with them 1-1 until right before halftime.  Oxy also hasn't been getting the attendance they used to this year for some reason (the graduation of one of the seniors took away a very dedicated parent who used to organize some fans and beat some drums, but that doesn't explain the students except that the seniors as a class were probably popular).  Still, they should handle Pomona-Pitzer which has a decent amount of offensive power (if Kyla Lau can get past their outside back on the wing and distribute from the end line), but not a lot of lock-down defending as evidenced by their 3-3 draw with Caltech.