Go WEST young man (and NORTH)

[jknezek]

Mathematically a tie won't get them there. The farther down the rankings you are, the more a big win helps. Beating CC moved them up 35 from 111, it will move them less than 35 to win again as the "competition" is better. Plus a tie won't get them anywhere near as much as a win.

I suspect a tie would push them in to the 50s at best, and I think the high 50s at that, well below what would be necessary for an at-large. But I'm sure Hansen could do the math.

[Kuiper]

Mathematically a tie won't get them there. The farther down the rankings you are, the more a big win helps. Beating CC moved them up 35 from 111, it will move them less than 35 to win again as the "competition" is better. Plus a tie won't get them anywhere near as much as a win.

I suspect a tie would push them in to the 50s at best, and I think the high 50s at that, well below what would be necessary for an at-large. But I'm sure Hansen could do the math.

I haven't even attempted to model all this, but I'm interested in why you say a tie won't get them anywhere near as much as a win.  Isn't a tie considered half a win under the NPI?  I mean, that is a lot less than a full win, but are you factoring in some further discount than that?   Plus, if it is a half win, couldn't they get half the QWB points even if it is a loss in PKs?  In this case, it would be #74 getting half a win against #11, so that's still a fairly big difference.

Regardless, I still agree it's likely St. Thomas needs to get the AQ, as does Hardin-Simmons in the ASC.  I'm a bit more curious about Texas Lutheran, which is #46 now.  It's interesting to see how much they could move up without playing games at all. 

[kansas hokie]

Haven't done the math but have been watching NPI each day. TX Lutheran did move up today, but they still have enough teams ahead of them that I can't see them making it all the way in to at-large. St. Thomas and Hardin-Simmons needs the AQ, no doubt in that for me.

There's been clear differences in Wins and PK wins in terms of NPI movement during conference tournaments. PK wins count as ties which decreases the gain a good bit.

St. Thomas winning the final would cause a good bit of bracket chaos in terms of travel so it would be fun to see as it would give us three Texas teams instead of two.

[Kuiper]

St. Thomas winning the final would cause a good bit of bracket chaos in terms of travel so it would be fun to see as it would give us three Texas teams instead of two.

Region X is always a bit of travel chaos. 

Another complicating factor this year is that with Trinity men hosting last year and Trinity women also in the finals on Sunday, Trinity men may not be available to host if they win the SCAC (or qualify as an at-large) and the women win since it would be the women's turn.  St. Thomas might also have difficulty because they rent SaberCat Stadium and may not be able to get it at the last minute.  That could make Hardin-Simmons and Abilene, Texas the host if they win the ASC, but they would still have to ship two Region X teams elsewhere in the country and they are very spread out in SoCal, Tacoma, WA, and Colorado Springs.  And if Redlands somehow sneaks back into the picture because of other teams losing, or Chapman beats CMS in the SCIAC final, then you could have two SCIAC teams qualify and form a SoCal pod with Colorado College and Pacific Lutheran.  Some team would then get shipped to Texas from elsewhere to make a Texas pod.

[Ron Boerger]

St. Thomas winning would be the NCAA's best scenario.  STT plays the ASC winner, Trinity plays whomever they fly in, and Colorado flies somewhere else. I don't think they'd have any problem getting that stadium, though I've heard the turf is getting pretty rough.

Pretty sure men have hosting priority in the first couple of rounds this year.

[BTXCru18]

Schools have to apply to be a host site, it's not just awarded. In years past, UST hasn't even submitted a bid. Probably would incur some sort of deposit to reserve the venue for the weekend on the off chance they are selected, so I imagine that is the main factor in not bidding.

[Kuiper]

The grass was definitely torn up yesterday at SaberCats stadium.  Players were slipping and tearing up the grass on Hardin-Simmons' field yesterday and Thursday because of the heavy rain as well, though, so I'm not sure it's much better.  In SoCal, CMS's grass field is in bad shape.  It's probably worse than the Texas fields because I think they use it as their practice field for both teams as well and it's gotten really worn and bumpy with the lack of rain, especially near the goals.  It's hard to maintain grass fields in California and Texas given the vagaries of the weather, but Trinity or Redlands have some of the best.

Of course, if LeTourneau beats Hardin-Simmons, maybe LETU will host for once.  They certainly are committed to their athletics facilities.  In fact, on Thursday, they just announced they have broken ground on a 120,000 square foot Athletic and Human Performance Air Dome to house an indoor track and field facility and other athletics spaces.

[BTXCru18]

The grass was definitely torn up yesterday at SaberCats stadium.  Players were slipping and tearing up the grass on Hardin-Simmons' field yesterday and Thursday because of the heavy rain as well, though, so I'm not sure it's much better.  In SoCal, CMS's grass field is in bad shape.  It's probably worse than the Texas fields because I think they use it as their practice field for both teams as well and it's gotten really worn and bumpy with the lack of rain, especially near the goals.  It's hard to maintain grass fields in California and Texas given the vagaries of the weather, but Trinity or Redlands have some of the best.

Of course, if LeTourneau beats Hardin-Simmons, maybe LETU will host for once.  They certainly are committed to their athletics facilities.  In fact, on Thursday, they just announced they have broken ground on a 120,000 square foot Athletic and Human Performance Air Dome to house an indoor track and field facility and other athletics spaces.

IMO, Trinity has to be the favorite to host given their history. The only times in recent memory they didn't host was 2021 when their women had priority and 2022 when they didn't even make the tournament.

[Kuiper]

One game of note today in the Northwest Conference:

Pacific Lutheran 2 - Whitworth 1

I say of "note" not because it affects whether PLU wins the NWC.  They have already clinched the regular season championship and the NWC doesn't play a tournament because they use a round robin format where every team plays each other twice.  That ensures everyone gets enough DIII games since there are no other DIII teams for almost one thousand miles, but the downside is that some of these late season games where a school has already clinched the title can feel like scrimmages.  PLU, however, is prepping for the tournament and likely wants to make sure it's in good form, assuming it doesn't have players who need to rest or recover from injury.  With the games this weekend away at the Whits, it creates a travel schedule and atmosphere that promoted that tournament feel and the game lived up to that.  In the first half, PLU outshot Whitworth 8-2, but it was Whitworth that struck first, scoring on a Cole Friesen shot in the 38th minute (his 15th goal of the season) and Whitworth took a 1-0 lead into halftime.  That gave PLU a chance to see what could do playing from behind against a team trying to preserve the lead rather than build on it.  Although PLU outshot them 16-5 in the 2nd half, they didn't equalize until the 72nd minute.  The two teams battled it out from there and Trevor Thompson saved the day on a counter-press where he recovered the ball and drove to the goal for a shot to the right corner in the 87th minute to take the lead.  Thompson, who assisted on the first goal, now has 21 goals and 12 assists on the season, adding to his case for All-American honors.  Here is a link to a video of Thompson's goal, which is really a strong advertisement for how good this guy is for people who never see him because he plays in the NWC

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DCLV8wix0IB/?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

[mngopher]

St Olaf wins the MIAC auto bid for the 3rd year in a row with an entertaining 3-2 win over Gustavus. The Oles took a one goal lead on three different occasions, and the Gusties answered back twice. Both of these teams were locks for the NCAA tournament regardless of the outcome.

Will be curious how the NCAA handles seeding/hosting for Region IX teams. Likely 3, if not 4 (if UW Platteville beats UW Eau Claire tomorrow), will be in the top 16. I don't think there is any way that all 4 would host 1st/2nd round games, but we'll see. The only other teams to make it in Region IX wil be the ARC champ (Wartburg vs Neb Wesleyan) and the UMAC champ (UW Superior vs Bethany Lutheran), and I don't think enough other bids will go to teams that would not have to fly in if all 4 hosted.

[Kuiper]

St Olaf wins the MIAC auto bid for the 3rd year in a row with an entertaining 3-2 win over Gustavus. The Oles took a one goal lead on three different occasions, and the Gusties answered back twice. Both of these teams were locks for the NCAA tournament regardless of the outcome.

Will be curious how the NCAA handles seeding/hosting for Region IX teams. Likely 3, if not 4 (if UW Platteville beats UW Eau Claire tomorrow), will be in the top 16. I don't think there is any way that all 4 would host 1st/2nd round games, but we'll see. The only other teams to make it in Region IX wil be the ARC champ (Wartburg vs Neb Wesleyan) and the UMAC champ (UW Superior vs Bethany Lutheran), and I don't think enough other bids will go to teams that would not have to fly in if all 4 hosted.

If they need to fly in a team from outside Region IX to Minnesota or Wisconsin, Pacific Lutheran would be a possibility.  They did it last year at St. Olaf

[kansas hokie]

There will be enough teams in the tourney to do a Midwest quadrant with four pods and may even have to fly a team out of the midwest. So far, Gustavous Adolphus and UW Eau Claire were the seeds high enough to anchor the quadrant, but losses have changed that a bit. First thing NCAA does is put the top 8 seeds apart from each other, it's important to be in that top 8.

[Kuiper]

HALF:  CMS 4 - Chapman 0

After watching Redlands lose on Thursday, I think CMS' Coach Cartee realized CMS needed to get on the board first so that Chapman couldn't sit back and absorb pressure and he had the Stags come out aggressively. And boy did they ever.  CMS scored the first goal in the 2nd minute and then added goals in the 11th, 21st, and 23rd minutes.  With a 4-0 lead only halfway through the first half against a strong possession-based team in CMS, Chapman has been chasing the game ever since.  It's no surprise that Chapman is clearly tired after the play-in game on Tuesday at Cal Lutheran, the Semifinals on Thursday with double OT and PKs at Redlands on Thursday in a game where Chapman ceded possession and defended virtually the entire game after scoring at the end of the second half, and then traveling to Claremont tonight against CMS.  Late in the first half, Chapman was visibly frustrated and two studs up challenges by Chapman players trying to get back possession almost cleared the benches.  They arguably could have been reds, but the ref only handed out yellows and ended up stopping the game to let the players cool down while they warned both benches.  I fear the second half will either get uglier or the coaches will sub liberally and make it a bench half.  Either way, I doubt Chapman will be doing any bid stealing tonight.

UPDATE:  Chapman comes out the second half with mostly starters, but CMS brings in a line change, including a GK change.

UPDATE:  CMS scores a fifth goal on a monster shot from way outside after dribbling through a couple of Chapman defenders.  The scorer is a senior who doesn't get a lot of playing time, so nice for him to score at home.

UPDATE:  The announcers mentioned that CMS put in a bid to host in the first round, but unless they don't have enough schools willing to host, it seems unlikely they would fly three teams out to LA.

UPDATE:  CMS 5 - Chapman 1

Chapman scores a nice goal from the top of the box with about 7:30 left in the game.  I kind of feel bad for the CMS keeper, a senior who was brought in as the 3rd CMS keeper only three minutes earlier for only the fifth game of his college career.

FINAL:  CMS 5 - Chapman 1

A dominating performance against a team that over-performed just to get into the finals.

[SimpleCoach]

HALF:  CMS 4 - Chapman 0

After watching Redlands lose on Thursday, I think CMS' Coach Cartee realized CMS needed to get on the board first so that Chapman couldn't sit back and absorb pressure and he had the Stags come out aggressively. And boy did they ever.  CMS scored the first goal in the 2nd minute and then added goals in the 11th, 21st, and 23rd minutes.  With a 4-0 lead only halfway through the first half against a strong possession-based team in CMS, Chapman has been chasing the game ever since.  It's no surprise that Chapman is clearly tired after the play-in game on Tuesday at Cal Lutheran, the Semifinals on Thursday with double OT and PKs at Redlands on Thursday in a game where Chapman ceded possession and defended virtually the entire game after scoring at the end of the second half, and then traveling to Claremont tonight against CMS.  Late in the first half, Chapman was visibly frustrated and two studs up challenges by Chapman players trying to get back possession almost cleared the benches.  They arguably could have been reds, but the ref only handed out yellows and ended up stopping the game to let the players cool down while they warned both benches.  I fear the second half will either get uglier or the coaches will sub liberally and make it a bench half.  Either way, I doubt Chapman will be doing any bid stealing tonight.

UPDATE:  Chapman comes out the second half with mostly starters, but CMS brings in a line change, including a GK change.

UPDATE:  CMS scores a fifth goal on a monster shot from way outside after dribbling through a couple of Chapman defenders.  The scorer is a senior who doesn't get a lot of playing time, so nice for him to score at home.

UPDATE:  The announcers mentioned that CMS put in a bid to host in the first round, but unless they don't have enough schools willing to host, it seems unlikely they would fly three teams out to LA.

UPDATE:  CMS 5 - Chapman 1

Chapman scores a nice goal from the top of the box with about 7:30 left in the game.  I kind of feel bad for the CMS keeper, a senior who was brought in as the 3rd CMS keeper only three minutes earlier for only the fifth game of his college career.

FINAL:  CMS 5 - Chapman 1

A dominating performance against a team that over-performed just to get into the finals.

CMS looked real solid.  I knew they were good but they just dominated.

SC.

[BTXCru18]

HSU field looks great after all the rain, but we'll see how it plays today. Fortunately a sunny day to continue drying it out. Women's final kicking off right now, men at 2 o'clock.

Re: looking ahead to women's 1st & 2nd round host possibility.