Bracketology Projection

[Ralph Turner]

Rankings are out. Time for prognosticators to get busy
First things I noticed... BSC is indeed ahead of H-S in R3, Merchant Marine #2 in R1, Oshkosh behind Gustavus in R6

Here is a bracket for the Island Teams

#6 Redlands to #3 Linfield
#8 Someone to #1 SJU
#4 Trinity to #2 UMHB
#7 Huntingdon to #5 BSC

HSU stays home.

[Captainred81]

No PAC teams in the rankings at all.  Probably if the tarts beat the sparts then they'll get in, but we wont see that ranking.  Also, they kewpt 3 OAC teams in, which gives Mount 3 RRO wins.  Does that put them in the #2 spot overall, separating them from NCC?  Probably after BW/JCU this weekend then they'll be down to 2 teams

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

First at the table
Merchant Marine (7-1, .517, 0-0) @ 2-7 Coast Guard
Ithaca (8-1, .596, 2-1) @ 9-0 R2#1 Cortland
Birmingham-Southern (7-1, .525, 1-1) @ 2-7 Millsaps
Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) vs 6-3 R4#7 John Carroll
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, .495, 0-1) @ 3-6 Millikin
UW-La Crosse (6-1, .608, 1-1) vs 3-6 UW-Eau Claire

Ithaca is the obvious choice assuming they beat Cortland. If Union (8-1, .530, 1-1) beats RPI, that gives Ithaca pool A and I believe Union will jump Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) to be first at the table for region 2.
Unless Union and Ithaca both lose, the first two picks are La Crosse and the LL team.

Round 3
Merchant Marine (7-1, .517, 0-0) @ 2-7 Coast Guard
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) @ 2-7 McDaniel
Birmingham-Southern (7-1, .525, 1-1) @ 2-7 Millsaps
Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) vs 6-3 R4#7 John Carroll
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, .495, 0-1) @ 3-6 Millikin
Bethel (8-1, .541, 1-1) vs 9-0 R6#2 St John's

Now it's getting tougher... Bethel would have to get a 2nd loss to be pool C but with Gustavus jumping in the rankings to be the next team below them, they must stay ahead of them. That also added a RRO win for them they didn't have previously. Baldwin Wallace might be able to overtake Birmingham-Southern in SoS and I'd take their RRO results a bit ahead of BSC as well. So the decision would be between Baldwin Wallace with the one loss or Bethel with the better SoS and an extra RRO loss (John Carroll wouldn't remain ranked to give BW a 2nd win)... I just have a hard time picking a 2 loss team this early so I'll take Baldwin Wallace

Round 4
Merchant Marine (7-1, .517, 0-0) @ 2-7 Coast Guard
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) @ 2-7 McDaniel
Birmingham-Southern (7-1, .525, 1-1) @ 2-7 Millsaps
Heidelberg (6-2, .552, 1-2) @ 4-5 Ohio Northern
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, .495, 0-1) @ 3-6 Millikin
Bethel (8-1, .541, 1-1) vs 9-0 R6#2 St John's

Assuming Baldwin Wallace wins this weekend, that would take away Heidelberg's RRO win. The choice now is BSC or Bethel... and the same question arises as last round... if the Bethel game is close like the first meeting I'll slot them in. A surprise 2 loss selection of Bethel

Round 5
Merchant Marine (7-1, .517, 0-0) @ 2-7 Coast Guard
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) @ 2-7 McDaniel
Birmingham-Southern (7-1, .525, 1-1) @ 2-7 Millsaps
Heidelberg (6-2, .552, 1-2) @ 4-5 Ohio Northern
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, .495, 0-1) @ 3-6 Millikin
Gustavus Adolphus (7-2, .594, 1-2) @ 4-5 Concordia-Moorhead

Based on the comparisons throughout, I think the only selection would be Birmingham-Southern. Gustavus has better SoS than Bethel did in the last round, but the RRO aren't as good. Plus BSC has been sitting at the table being discussed from the beginning while the Gusties just joined. I feel like there should be better selections at the table still but here I'll take Birmingham-Southern

BSC blocks Hardin-Simmons (7-1, .528, 0-1) from ever reaching the table. They would have a similar (but I think slightly better) case as Wheaton. Everyone left at the table either has little to show for RRO or has 2 losses.

That means my picks are Baldwin Wallace, Bethel, Birmingham-Southern, a 1 loss LL team, and UW-La Crosse. A St John's loss would just swap them with Bethel, a Union and Ithaca loss would open up a spot. Now we sit back and wait for chaos to happen this weekend and really shake up pool C.

[Inkblot]

The pre-championship manual still says 500 miles. Has it just not been updated?

[USee]

The pre-championship manual still says 500 miles. Has it just not been updated?

What's the date on the manual you checked? probably 20-21. This years wasn't ever posted.

[Inkblot]

The pre-championship manual still says 500 miles. Has it just not been updated?

What's the date on the manual you checked? probably 20-21. This years wasn't ever posted.

It has been posted now. https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d3/2021-22D3MFB_PreChampManual.pdf

[USee]

FCG, Great work. I understand your process and think your reasoning is sound. There are other ways to cut this obviously. At the end of the process I don't think there is any way (and I'd bet a lot of money if I were a bettor) that any 2 loss team is getting in before a 1 loss Wheaton team, or a 1 loss Hardin Simmons for that matter.

I am interested to see how the committee handles the RRO's this year. In past years there were 40 teams with regional rankings. This year, with the realignment, there are 46. That gives teams a lot more RRO's but does it dilute that data a bit? Don't know. In Region 4, the OAC has 4 ranked teams, in part because the other leagues don't have enough good teams. That gives Mt Union a disproportionate number of RRO's. Will that matter? Don't know. Days before we find out.

[UfanBill]

FCGrizzlies...Thanks for your efforts. As a Liberty League fan I like the way you think. With their outstanding OOC record this year and 4 teams regionally ranked, it's great to see they get your respect and recognition. Hope the committee thinks similarly.

[edward de vere]

I don't know Wheaton from Wheaties or Hardin-Simmons from Hardy & Laurel  but - based on their records of a lone 13-point loss to NC and a lone 6-point loss to UMHB - there's no freakin' way you leave those two teams out of the playoffs.

Come on, man.

[archgemini24]

No PAC teams in the rankings at all.  Probably if the tarts beat the sparts then they'll get in, but we wont see that ranking.  Also, they kewpt 3 OAC teams in, which gives Mount 3 RRO wins.  Does that put them in the #2 spot overall, separating them from NCC?  Probably after BW/JCU this weekend then they'll be down to 2 teams

I do not think so. Based on the "previous year's playoff result" tiebreaker, I think the committee will lean toward making sure NCC and UWW lead the opposite halves. Mount Union could get seeded on the top line and host a Quarter-Final, but #3 overall is their absolute ceiling barring upsets.

[Inkblot]

Does anyone know what the three-way tiebreakers in the NEWMAC are?

Edit: and the UMAC?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I don't know Wheaton from Wheaties or Hardin-Simmons from Hardy & Laurel  but - based on their records of a lone 13-point loss to NC and a lone 6-point loss to UMHB - there's no freakin' way you leave those two teams out of the playoffs.

Come on, man.

Welcome to the joys of 27 conferences and just 5 at large bids. Good teams are going to be left out. Hardin-Simmons has the additional handicap that they're behind Birmingham-Southern in the rankings and they aren't getting picked until at least the 3rd round. So until BSC gets selected H-S isn't even in the discussion.

Honestly, I'm only confident in La Crosse and a 1 loss LL team getting in. After that it could depend on what data the committee thinks is better looking.

[Baldini]

Does anyone know what the three-way tiebreakers in the NEWMAC are?

Edit: and the UMAC?

If Minnesota-Morris beats Greenville and Martin Luther beats Northwestern their would be a 3-way tie and it would go to (E) Random draw. 

NCAA Championship Automatic Qualifier ("AQ") Determination & Tiebreaker Criteria

A. Best conference record (based upon winning % of conference contests)
B. If two way tie then head‐to‐head result
C. If three‐way tie then head‐to‐head results amongst three (2‐0 advances)
D. If three‐way tie without 2‐0 record, then record against rest of conference standings in
descending order of finish (4th place, 5th place, etc.)
E. Random draw (if three or more teams) or coin flip (two teams) by UMAC Commissioner

[USee]

The pre-championship manual still says 500 miles. Has it just not been updated?

What's the date on the manual you checked? probably 20-21. This years wasn't ever posted.

It has been posted now. https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d3/2021-22D3MFB_PreChampManual.pdf

definitely says 500 miles.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Regional Ranking 2 Updated Bracket - (I kept my other bracket intact until after this weekend slate of games) Unofficial DIII Bracketology

#1 seeds are: NCC, UWW, Mount, and St. John's
#2 Seeds are: UMHB, Central, Delaware Valley, and Cortland State
Pool C: UW-Lacrosse, Union, Birmingham Southern, Baldwin-Wallace, and Wheaton (Ill.)

Total Flights - 6-8

If it is 500 miles, you'll have to switch W&L with Huntingdon and Albion with Carnegie Mellon