Bracketology Projection

[crufootball]

I'm curious what people think would happen in a hypothetical year where the Pool C teams with the best analytic resumes come from the NWC, SCIAC, and teams over 500 miles apart in R3?

Those teams would be selected in Pool C if they had the best profiles per the selection criteria.

How would the NCAA find the money to support the unbudgeted travel?  Take from other years or other sports?  Or would they bend the first-round conference match-up or 500-mile flight guidance? 

The current SAA footprint actually appears to make it impossible to have a 10-team flight scenario (otherwise known as the NCAA D3 Black Swan)

For the 19 zillionth time: the budget does not impact selections.  Pairings, yes.  Selections, no.

The hypothetical is more related to how the NCAA would handle an unforeseeable budgetary overage related to circumstance and policy.  Honest question, but I struck a nerve.  I'll return to my posting dormancy.

As a UMHB fan that can fully appreciate your thoughts Bmo, I will give the NCAA credit that once the bracket is released with the possible exception of last years North Central/Mount Union situation, they just play/fly out the bracket.

Back in 2016, when UMHB may or may not have won the Stagg Bowl (haha) the island bracket was made up so that Linfield (5 seed) traveled to HSU (3 seed) in the first round and UMHB (1 seed) played Redlands. Can't remember if the no conference opponents rematches in first round rule was in affect but either way the cheapest outcome would have been HSU taking care of business and beating Linfield to set up a much cheaper 2nd but alas HSU couldn't and Linfield was flown to Texas 2 straight weekend (once during Thanksgiving).

[hazzben]

Still gotta win the games to be champ, whether you play the toughest team in Round 1 or in the Stagg Bowl.

Win the games.

I don't disagree Smeds, but if I can play devils advocate. The realistic goal for probably 25 of the teams that make the playoff is to advance as far as they can, knowing they can't win a title. But even for the ones that want to win a title, that's typically a process (See NCC the last 20 years). Mount has benefited from Stagg paths that avoided top 4 competition until the Semi's. This allows for a class of senior athletes, on average to have played 16+ more playoff caliber games by the time they are in the semi's or Stagg their last year. That's an immense amount of experience gained.

Imagine a scenario during the LL era of UWW's run, where Mount and UWW faced off in Rd 1 every year. Your argument is correct, to be the best you have to beat the best. But that means 6 times between 2007 and 2014 Mount would have made first round exits. Stripping away those deep playoff runs before UWW beat them in the Stagg, does Mount still win a title in 2012 and 2015 without the accumulation of experience afforded them by geography and money when brackets are constructed?

End of the day, the champ has to beat the best teams to win the Stagg, zero argument. But becoming a Stagg capable program doesn't happen in a vaccuum. And some teams are given a lot less breathing room to develop that.

[Ralph Turner]

Still gotta win the games to be champ, whether you play the toughest team in Round 1 or in the Stagg Bowl.

Win the games.

I don't disagree Smeds, but if I can play devils advocate. The realistic goal for probably 25 of the teams that make the playoff is to advance as far as they can, knowing they can't win a title. But even for the ones that want to win a title, that's typically a process (See NCC the last 20 years). Mount has benefited from Stagg paths that avoided top 4 competition until the Semi's. This allows for a class of senior athletes, on average to have played 16+ more playoff caliber games by the time they are in the semi's or Stagg their last year. That's an immense amount of experience gained.

Imagine a scenario during the LL [Lance Leipold] era of UWW's run, where Mount and UWW faced off in Rd 1 every year. Your argument is correct, to be the best you have to beat the best. But that means 6 times between 2007 and 2014 Mount would have made first round exits. Stripping away those deep playoff runs before UWW beat them in the Stagg, does Mount still win a title in 2012 and 2015 without the accumulation of experience afforded them by geography and money when brackets are constructed?

End of the day, the champ has to beat the best teams to win the Stagg, zero argument. But becoming a Stagg capable program doesn't happen in a vacuum. And some teams are given a lot less breathing room to develop that.

Because UMU is the "easternmost" of the Level 1 powers, they anchor that northeastern most bracket and seldom get that challenge until the 3rd round, when they run into a Johns Hopkins, a John Carroll re-match, or a Wesley, (back-in-the-day).
Five times in the last 10 years, UMHB has eliminated an ASC team (McMurry in round 2 in 2011, Louisiana College in 2012, TLU in 2014, HSU in 2015 & 2018) from the playoffs.

[Pat Coleman]

I'm curious what people think would happen in a hypothetical year where the Pool C teams with the best analytic resumes come from the NWC, SCIAC, and teams over 500 miles apart in R3?

Those teams would be selected in Pool C if they had the best profiles per the selection criteria.

How would the NCAA find the money to support the unbudgeted travel?  Take from other years or other sports?  Or would they bend the first-round conference match-up or 500-mile flight guidance? 

The current SAA footprint actually appears to make it impossible to have a 10-team flight scenario (otherwise known as the NCAA D3 Black Swan)

For the 19 zillionth time: the budget does not impact selections.  Pairings, yes.  Selections, no.

The hypothetical is more related to how the NCAA would handle an unforeseeable budgetary overage related to circumstance and policy.  Honest question, but I struck a nerve.  I'll return to my posting dormancy.

This is kind of a black box that none of us really has the experience to answer, but there is a reserve fund that can be drawn on.

[bleedpurple]

Happens way too often for the teams from Texas and the Island teams. They could always let them fly somewhere and if both teams win it would be a bus ride second round and not a flight. Same matchups every year but imagination with matchups isn't their strong suit. Sad as it is, in the end you have to beat the team they put in front of ya. Anyone ever researched which team had the easiest path to the Walnut and Bronze? Which team played the least ranked or lowest ranked teams before the championship?

The selection committee can be very creative with matchups.  NCAA's rules prevent the kind of unrestricted travel that would make everybody happy. 

For the umpteenth time- Division III only gets teeny fraction of the NCAA's money to play with and Division III football only gets a small part of that small part.

I know this is the explanation given every time. But this still makes it a playoff based on lack of funds and not merit. I see in one breath you guys mention that if Mt. and NCC are considered the 2 best teams they will be placed on opposite sides. If MHB and Trinity were the best 2 would they be afforded that same option? Of course not. What if the best 4 were from the south? Would they all have to beat each other in the first rounds? That's a tournament based on funds and not merit. So if we feel slighted sometimes, then maybe we have a small reason. We know and understand the money the NCAA limits us to will dictate the matchups.

Strong, strong disagree.  Access to the tournament is based on merit.  You have to win to qualify for the tournament.  If you want a tournament where the teams are perfectly selected, seeded, and paired on a 1-32 basis, you're ALWAYS going to be disappointed because they'll never ever be able to do that accurately.

I never mentioned merit for access to the playoffs. I was talking matchups all based off money and location. Win lose or draw is really not the matter I was addressing here because I know you have to win them all to be champions. I just know as a Crusader fan if we beat HPU this week then our playoff journey will be in some order either Trinity, Huntingdon, St John's, HSU, Linfield, WW, Mt U. All really fine schools and programs that can beat us on any giving day. . Would be great to play some teams we have never faced or rarely faced before facing the Usual suspects in the Stagg Bowl if we are so lucky to make it that far. It's great to here about some of these programs you guys talk about but we never get to see or play them.

I'm going to disagree with you here. I like not having cupcake wins in the playoffs. I see enough blow outs regular season. I look forward to good football that makes me nervous. I would rather it all be in Crusader Stadium, but i want the good games

You would love being a fan of a WIAC team.  My hair is gray and I've had to get a pacemaker put in, but the nerves and adrenaline are a part of pretty much every Saturday in the fall!

[Bmo]

I'm curious what people think would happen in a hypothetical year where the Pool C teams with the best analytic resumes come from the NWC, SCIAC, and teams over 500 miles apart in R3?

Those teams would be selected in Pool C if they had the best profiles per the selection criteria.

How would the NCAA find the money to support the unbudgeted travel?  Take from other years or other sports?  Or would they bend the first-round conference match-up or 500-mile flight guidance? 

The current SAA footprint actually appears to make it impossible to have a 10-team flight scenario (otherwise known as the NCAA D3 Black Swan)

For the 19 zillionth time: the budget does not impact selections.  Pairings, yes.  Selections, no.

The hypothetical is more related to how the NCAA would handle an unforeseeable budgetary overage related to circumstance and policy.  Honest question, but I struck a nerve.  I'll return to my posting dormancy.

This is kind of a black box that none of us really has the experience to answer, but there is a reserve fund that can be drawn on.

Thanks, Pat, appreciate the response. 

I hadn't really thought to look, but the NCAA fiscal year is Sept 1 - Aug 30th.  I would assume that means that fall sports are under more pressure to meet their budgets, or else they risk impacting the winter and spring sports championships.   Football would be the largest consumer of that budget per sport by 3 or 4 orders of magnitude.  I would assume what's left or required in spring either gets placed or pulled from the rainy-day fund that you mentioned.

It would be interesting to see if fewer flights for a given year's football championship correlates to more generous travel pairings for spring sports.

[tigerguy]

Still gotta win the games to be champ, whether you play the toughest team in Round 1 or in the Stagg Bowl.

Win the games.

I don't disagree Smeds, but if I can play devils advocate. The realistic goal for probably 25 of the teams that make the playoff is to advance as far as they can, knowing they can't win a title. But even for the ones that want to win a title, that's typically a process (See NCC the last 20 years). Mount has benefited from Stagg paths that avoided top 4 competition until the Semi's. This allows for a class of senior athletes, on average to have played 16+ more playoff caliber games by the time they are in the semi's or Stagg their last year. That's an immense amount of experience gained.

Imagine a scenario during the LL era of UWW's run, where Mount and UWW faced off in Rd 1 every year. Your argument is correct, to be the best you have to beat the best. But that means 6 times between 2007 and 2014 Mount would have made first round exits. Stripping away those deep playoff runs before UWW beat them in the Stagg, does Mount still win a title in 2012 and 2015 without the accumulation of experience afforded them by geography and money when brackets are constructed?

End of the day, the champ has to beat the best teams to win the Stagg, zero argument. But becoming a Stagg capable program doesn't happen in a vaccuum. And some teams are given a lot less breathing room to develop that.

Agree with this. I also think that, although recruiting in D3 is largely regional and different among schools depending on academics, there is likely some weight to "hey last year we went x-games into the playoffs" versus "we were ranked top 12 in the country but lost in the first round to the stagg bowl winner/runner up/quarter finalist."

[smedindy]

Still gotta win the games to be champ, whether you play the toughest team in Round 1 or in the Stagg Bowl.

Win the games.

I don't disagree Smeds, but if I can play devils advocate. The realistic goal for probably 25 of the teams that make the playoff is to advance as far as they can, knowing they can't win a title. But even for the ones that want to win a title, that's typically a process (See NCC the last 20 years). Mount has benefited from Stagg paths that avoided top 4 competition until the Semi's. This allows for a class of senior athletes, on average to have played 16+ more playoff caliber games by the time they are in the semi's or Stagg their last year. That's an immense amount of experience gained.

Imagine a scenario during the LL era of UWW's run, where Mount and UWW faced off in Rd 1 every year. Your argument is correct, to be the best you have to beat the best. But that means 6 times between 2007 and 2014 Mount would have made first round exits. Stripping away those deep playoff runs before UWW beat them in the Stagg, does Mount still win a title in 2012 and 2015 without the accumulation of experience afforded them by geography and money when brackets are constructed?

End of the day, the champ has to beat the best teams to win the Stagg, zero argument. But becoming a Stagg capable program doesn't happen in a vaccuum. And some teams are given a lot less breathing room to develop that.

You're not wrong that Mt. Union has the benefit of location, location, location. But I think there is stiffer competition for them if they go East after Round 1. They may run into Cortland, Ithaca, Del Val, Susquehanna, and Carnegie Mellon, all of whom have improved greatly from the halcyon days of UMU not breaking a sweat until the semis.

With the limited roster, not many of the UMU scrubs will get time in the playoffs. This isn't a game against Wilimington or Muskingum where they can dress everyone and play 3 or 4 platoons. Yes, there's practice, but game experience will be limited.

And in the Midwest, there's enough lower ranked teams for the top dogs to coast in the first round before having to get after it big-time.

I think the D-3 powers that be are quite pleased that Endicott is probably winning the CCC, and are rooting for Gaulladet instead of Castleton in the ECFC.

[Ron Boerger]

[...]

I hadn't really thought to look, but the NCAA fiscal year is Sept 1 - Aug 30th.  I would assume that means that fall sports are under more pressure to meet their budgets, or else they risk impacting the winter and spring sports championships.   Football would be the largest consumer of that budget per sport by 3 or 4 orders of magnitude.  I would assume what's left or required in spring either gets placed or pulled from the rainy-day fund that you mentioned.

It would be interesting to see if fewer flights for a given year's football championship correlates to more generous travel pairings for spring sports.

As someone who avidly follows spring sports for a Texas-based school that very frequently by its play earns the right to host playoff rounds but never does unless the (now 500 mile) travel situation is in its favor, I daresay this doesn't pan out.   Or the situation hasn't come up. 

[Ralph Turner]

[...]

I hadn't really thought to look, but the NCAA fiscal year is Sept 1 - Aug 30th.  I would assume that means that fall sports are under more pressure to meet their budgets, or else they risk impacting the winter and spring sports championships.   Football would be the largest consumer of that budget per sport by 3 or 4 orders of magnitude.  I would assume what's left or required in spring either gets placed or pulled from the rainy-day fund that you mentioned.

It would be interesting to see if fewer flights for a given year's football championship correlates to more generous travel pairings for spring sports.

As someone who avidly follows spring sports for a Texas-based school that very frequently by its play earns the right to host playoff rounds but never does unless the (now 500 mile) travel situation is in its favor, I daresay this doesn't pan out.   Or the situation hasn't come up.

+1!
...IIRC, or its #1 seed soccer team goes on the road after a 1st round game...

[hazzben]

But I think there is stiffer competition for them if they go East after Round 1. They may run into Cortland, Ithaca, Del Val, Susquehanna, and Carnegie Mellon, all of whom have improved greatly from the halcyon days of UMU not breaking a sweat until the semis.

I do agree that the East appears saltier than it has been this year. I think in general this has potential to be the least predictable playoff we've seen in the d3fb.com era.

[Ralph Turner]

Please correct me if I am mistaken...

Is the number for a Football Pool A bid 6 teams?
Does the Landmark Conference have 6 teams in 2023?
Do they get an AQ, the 28th to be awarded?

If so, that strengthens Region 2.

[Pat Coleman]

The Landmark has seven teams and will get an AQ in 2023, leaving four at-large bids.

[Pat Coleman]

I'm curious what people think would happen in a hypothetical year where the Pool C teams with the best analytic resumes come from the NWC, SCIAC, and teams over 500 miles apart in R3?

Those teams would be selected in Pool C if they had the best profiles per the selection criteria.

How would the NCAA find the money to support the unbudgeted travel?  Take from other years or other sports?  Or would they bend the first-round conference match-up or 500-mile flight guidance? 

The current SAA footprint actually appears to make it impossible to have a 10-team flight scenario (otherwise known as the NCAA D3 Black Swan)

For the 19 zillionth time: the budget does not impact selections.  Pairings, yes.  Selections, no.

The hypothetical is more related to how the NCAA would handle an unforeseeable budgetary overage related to circumstance and policy.  Honest question, but I struck a nerve.  I'll return to my posting dormancy.

This is kind of a black box that none of us really has the experience to answer, but there is a reserve fund that can be drawn on.

Thanks, Pat, appreciate the response. 

I hadn't really thought to look, but the NCAA fiscal year is Sept 1 - Aug 30th.  I would assume that means that fall sports are under more pressure to meet their budgets, or else they risk impacting the winter and spring sports championships.   Football would be the largest consumer of that budget per sport by 3 or 4 orders of magnitude.  I would assume what's left or required in spring either gets placed or pulled from the rainy-day fund that you mentioned.

It would be interesting to see if fewer flights for a given year's football championship correlates to more generous travel pairings for spring sports.

The baseball championship is actually the most expensive one. More teams, more hotel nights.

[Cowboy2]

But I think there is stiffer competition for them if they go East after Round 1. They may run into Cortland, Ithaca, Del Val, Susquehanna, and Carnegie Mellon, all of whom have improved greatly from the halcyon days of UMU not breaking a sweat until the semis.

I do agree that the East appears saltier than it has been this year. I think in general this has potential to be the least predictable playoff we've seen in the d3fb.com era.

If it lives up to anything like the regular season has displayed it very well could be! Which is exciting from a small college fan perspective. Outside of Mount Union, and NCC (well at least in the half of Wheaton game), every team remaining in this week's Top 10 shows they can be beat or are at least human. Heck looking further down the list everyone has shown they beat good teams or have been battle tested at some point. 2 more weeks and a lot of ball left. Maybe we'll see a dark horse emerge and start to play their best ball.