Bracketology Projection

[crufootball]

Week 10 WAY TOO EARLY (BASED ON 1st RANKINGS) Unofficial DIII Bracketology

Thanks for putting in the work to do this, fun to prognosticate on this stuff.

FWIW, if these were the actual teams selected (I'm sure there will be some surprises Saturday), I hope the committee does something different than this projected bracket. The "West" bracket is insanely top heavy and deep IMO. I know budget handcuffs this some, but I'd love to see some creativity to balance things a little more than this.

Top 25 dispersion of this projection:
"West": 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
"East": 2, 12, 13, 19
"North": 1, 9, 10, 15, 20
"South": 11, 14, 17, 18

Top 25 has no technical bearing on who makes the playoffs or how brackets are constructed, but to have 6 of the current Top 10 in one quad is tough to swallow. The South is glaringly shallow and lacks any elite teams in the current construction (not that I'm proposing how to fix this).

Might be missing something but how are you sorting teams into the west, south, north and south? Since UMHB, HSU and Trinity are in Region 3 I would think we would be more lumped in with the South. In the last few years UMHB has seemed to play a mix of South (Trinity, BSC, Huntingdon, Berry) and West teams (Redlands, Linfield, UWW, St. Johns), I would hope that Linfield is not forced to play any of the Texas teams in Round 1 or 2 but I guess that mainly depends on if HSU is in the fold this year.

[Cowboy2]

Week 10 WAY TOO EARLY (BASED ON 1st RANKINGS) Unofficial DIII Bracketology

Thanks for putting in the work to do this, fun to prognosticate on this stuff.

FWIW, if these were the actual teams selected (I'm sure there will be some surprises Saturday), I hope the committee does something different than this projected bracket. The "West" bracket is insanely top heavy and deep IMO. I know budget handcuffs this some, but I'd love to see some creativity to balance things a little more than this.

Top 25 dispersion of this projection:
"West": 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
"East": 2, 12, 13, 19
"North": 1, 9, 10, 15, 20
"South": 11, 14, 17, 18

Top 25 has no technical bearing on who makes the playoffs or how brackets are constructed, but to have 6 of the current Top 10 in one quad is tough to swallow. The South is glaringly shallow and lacks any elite teams in the current construction (not that I'm proposing how to fix this).

Might be missing something but how are you sorting teams into the west, south, north and south? Since UMHB, HSU and Trinity are in Region 3 I would think we would be more lumped in with the South. In the last few years UMHB has seemed to play a mix of South (Trinity, BSC, Huntingdon, Berry) and West teams (Redlands, Linfield, UWW, St. Johns), I would hope that Linfield is not forced to play any of the Texas teams in Round 1 or 2 but I guess that mainly depends on if HSU is in the fold this year.

He was talking about this bracket projection in terms of being in the same quadrant for playoffs...not necessarily region by means of determining geographic matchups

https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411

[D3fanboy]

the bracket looks pretty decent, but I think that it would be more accurate with swapping the Mount Union quad with the Trinity quad.  You got 500 miles ($$$) to worry about and Mount is within 500 of almost all of the Del Val quad.  We know the NCAA hates flights, and D3

[crufootball]

Week 10 WAY TOO EARLY (BASED ON 1st RANKINGS) Unofficial DIII Bracketology

Thanks for putting in the work to do this, fun to prognosticate on this stuff.

FWIW, if these were the actual teams selected (I'm sure there will be some surprises Saturday), I hope the committee does something different than this projected bracket. The "West" bracket is insanely top heavy and deep IMO. I know budget handcuffs this some, but I'd love to see some creativity to balance things a little more than this.

Top 25 dispersion of this projection:
"West": 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
"East": 2, 12, 13, 19
"North": 1, 9, 10, 15, 20
"South": 11, 14, 17, 18

Top 25 has no technical bearing on who makes the playoffs or how brackets are constructed, but to have 6 of the current Top 10 in one quad is tough to swallow. The South is glaringly shallow and lacks any elite teams in the current construction (not that I'm proposing how to fix this).

Might be missing something but how are you sorting teams into the west, south, north and south? Since UMHB, HSU and Trinity are in Region 3 I would think we would be more lumped in with the South. In the last few years UMHB has seemed to play a mix of South (Trinity, BSC, Huntingdon, Berry) and West teams (Redlands, Linfield, UWW, St. Johns), I would hope that Linfield is not forced to play any of the Texas teams in Round 1 or 2 but I guess that mainly depends on if HSU is in the fold this year.

He was talking about this bracket projection in terms of being in the same quadrant for playoffs...not necessarily region by means of determining geographic matchups

https://officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411

Thanks, now I am catching it. I would agree that I would love to see some creativity with the island teams but not holding my breath.

[Ralph Turner]

In the mock bracket, is the home team on top in every game?

[Cowboy2]

In the mock bracket, is the home team on top in every game?

Ralph, if you look a one of the cells of four the home team is usually on the top of the first game and then the home team is usually on the bottom of the second. Good question though. Way I read it is by the seeds the gentleman gave each team. So further away are the home teams and they work themselves towards each other by seeding. Now for instance if someone is upset in tourney play, they assume the home field the next round should they be the higher seed in the case of two upsets prior to the next round of sudden death

[Cowboy2]

So for instance taking the bottom 8 or west for example, it would read:

CMS @ Linfield
STJs @ UWLX

UMHB @ Huntingdon
HSU @ Trinity

If home teams all won the first round, UWL would go to Linfield and Huntingdon would travel to Trinity. If Huntingdon beat Trinity, and Linfield beat LX, by seeding Hawks would go to The Cats  and the winner would represent this pod in the semis. I could be wrong...but that's how I interpreted it

[Cowboy2]

Thanks, now I am catching it. I would agree that I would love to see some creativity with the island teams but not holding my breath.

Granted this is for fun, nicely presented and a good job to gauge projections for all of us fans, but you're right...
That would essentially be the following from the latest D3FB rankings unless the home team isn't depicted correctly:

NR @ 4
5 @ 7
3 @ 21
8 @ 6

Even furthermore the #21 played the #4 in a seven point game already this year. Pretty nuts to think that this is a possibility and whoever makes it out of that leg still has two more Ws to pick up just to be crowned "champion" 

[crufootball]

Thanks, now I am catching it. I would agree that I would love to see some creativity with the island teams but not holding my breath.

Granted this is for fun, nicely presented and a good job to gauge projections for all of us fans, but you're right...
That would essentially be the following from the latest D3FB rankings unless the home team isn't depicted correctly:

NR @ 4
5 @ 7
3 @ 21
8 @ 6

Even furthermore the #21 played the #4 in a seven point game already this year. Pretty nuts to think that this is a possibility and whoever makes it out of that leg still has two more Ws to pick up just to be crowned "champion" 

I could definitely see the Texas trio plus Huntingdon happening however I am going to be interested to see how the regional committee stacks UMHB and Huntingdon. This week they are tied in SOS but Logan Hansen projects UMHB will be better by seasons end and seems like both will be 1-1 against regional ranked teams since it seems hard to find a way that BSC and Belhaven stayed ranked this week.

[Cowboy2]

Not sure if Belhaven has the pool c resume and BSC needs to first get in the RRs to even be in a position to get discussed. So with the rules of no intra conference round 1 games, if HSU does make the cut, they'll most likely head to San Antonio due to travel and proximity. However, If they're out we may see another round 1 heavy weight matchup against TU and UMHB like we saw last $eason.

Should HSU make the cut, and Huntingdon get placed with Texas teams in the west quadrant, the closest team left to play will be UMHB. Whoever hosts that game will be determined probably on A.) who is ranked higher in R3 rankings, and B.)  who has the higher playoff bracket seed. If they're both (1-1) vs RROs another factor may be who has a higher seed in Linfield or UWW. If UWL is in the West, I doubt they'd match up huntingdon and Linfield in round 1.

Probably a flip of a coin until the last week gets wrapped up.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (9-0)(2-0)(.589) 2. Endicott (9-0)(0-0)(.494) 3. Kings (8-1)(1-1)(.508) 4. Stevenson (8-2)(1-2)(.592)   5. Mass-Dartmouth (8-1)(0-0)(.441) 6. Springfield (7-2)(0-0)(.509) 7. Plymouth State (8-1)(0-0)(.444)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Susquehanna (9-0)(1-0)(.533)  2. Cortland State (9-0)(1-0)(.522)  3. Carnegie Mellon (9-0)(0-0)(.571) 4. Ithaca (9-0)(0-0)(.533) 5. Johns Hopkins (8-1)(0-1)(.521) 6. Utica (8-1)(0-1)(.547) 7. Salisbury (7-1)(0-1)(.477)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (9-0)(1-0)(.567) 2. R-MC (9-0)(1-0)(.496) 3. Huntingdon (8-1)(1-1)(.542) 4. UMHB (8-1)(1-1)(.540)  5. Hardin-Simmons (7-1)(1-1)(.489) 6. Bridgewater (8-1)(0-1)(.478) 7. Belhaven (8-1)(0-1)(.424)                                             
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (9-0)(2-0)(.471) 2. Albion (9-0)(0-0)(.534) 3. Alma (9-0)(0-0)(.461)  4. MSJ (9-0)(1-0)(.436) 5. John Carroll (7-2)(1-1)(.528) 6. Baldwin Wallace (7-2)(0-2)(.613)  7. DePauw (8-1)(0-0)(.448)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (9-0)(2-0)(.538) 2. Wartburg (9-0)(1-0)(.503) 3. Wheaton (7-2)(0-2)(.586) 4. Lake Forest (8-1)(1-1)(.484) 5. Monmouth (7-2)(1-1)(.551) 6.Ripon (8-1)(1-1)(.566)   7.  Aurora (8-1)(0-0)(.469)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (8-0)(1-0)(.578) 2. Bethel (8-1)(1-1)(.600) 3. St. John's (8-1)(1-1)(.624) 4. UW-W (7-2)(2-1)(.663) 5. UW-L (6-1)(0-1)(.560) 6. C-M-S (7-1)(0-0)(.431) 7. UW-P (5-3)(2-1)(.595) 

Week 10 WAY TOO EARLY (BASED ON 1st RANKINGS) Unofficial DIII Bracketology

Most teams pretty close to their actual ranking except for Lake Forest in R5 which ended up not ranked at all.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (9-0)(2-0)(.589) 2. Endicott (9-0)(0-0)(.494) 3. Kings (8-1)(1-1)(.508) 4. Stevenson (8-2)(1-2)(.592)   5. Mass-Dartmouth (8-1)(0-0)(.441) 6. Springfield (7-2)(0-0)(.509) 7. Plymouth State (8-1)(0-0)(.444)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Susquehanna (9-0)(1-0)(.533)  2. Cortland State (9-0)(1-0)(.522)  3. Carnegie Mellon (9-0)(0-0)(.571) 4. Ithaca (9-0)(0-0)(.533) 5. Johns Hopkins (8-1)(0-1)(.521) 6. Utica (8-1)(0-1)(.547) 7. Salisbury (7-1)(0-1)(.477)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (9-0)(1-0)(.567) 2. R-MC (9-0)(1-0)(.496) 3. Huntingdon (8-1)(1-1)(.542) 4. UMHB (8-1)(1-1)(.540)  5. Hardin-Simmons (7-1)(1-1)(.489) 6. Bridgewater (8-1)(0-1)(.478) 7. Belhaven (8-1)(0-1)(.424)                                             
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (9-0)(2-0)(.471) 2. Albion (9-0)(0-0)(.534) 3. Alma (9-0)(0-0)(.461)  4. MSJ (9-0)(1-0)(.436) 5. John Carroll (7-2)(1-1)(.528) 6. Baldwin Wallace (7-2)(0-2)(.613)  7. DePauw (8-1)(0-0)(.448)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (9-0)(2-0)(.538) 2. Wartburg (9-0)(1-0)(.503) 3. Wheaton (7-2)(0-2)(.586) 4. Lake Forest (8-1)(1-1)(.484) 5. Monmouth (7-2)(1-1)(.551) 6.Ripon (8-1)(1-1)(.566)   7.  Aurora (8-1)(0-0)(.469)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (8-0)(1-0)(.578) 2. Bethel (8-1)(1-1)(.600) 3. St. John's (8-1)(1-1)(.624) 4. UW-W (7-2)(2-1)(.663) 5. UW-L (6-1)(0-1)(.560) 6. C-M-S (7-1)(0-0)(.431) 7. UW-P (5-3)(2-1)(.595) 

Week 10 WAY TOO EARLY (BASED ON 1st RANKINGS) Unofficial DIII Bracketology

Most teams pretty close to their actual ranking except for Lake Forest in R5 which ended up not ranked at all.

I think my Pool C candidates remain the same. I think the final bid will between the two-loss teams in Region 5 and Region 6.

[D3fanboy]

Region 3 shoehorning in an extra RRO to get Trinity a top "seed" is wild!!

[Ralph Turner]

Region 3 shoehorning in an extra RRO to get Trinity a top "seed" is wild!!

If the bracket rolls out the way that I think that it will, roughly everything northeast and east of Huntingdon/BSC goes the one side.
Everyone else goes to the other

[USee]

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (9-0)(2-0)(.589) 2. Endicott (9-0)(0-0)(.494) 3. Kings (8-1)(1-1)(.508) 4. Stevenson (8-2)(1-2)(.592)   5. Mass-Dartmouth (8-1)(0-0)(.441) 6. Springfield (7-2)(0-0)(.509) 7. Plymouth State (8-1)(0-0)(.444)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Susquehanna (9-0)(1-0)(.533)  2. Cortland State (9-0)(1-0)(.522)  3. Carnegie Mellon (9-0)(0-0)(.571) 4. Ithaca (9-0)(0-0)(.533) 5. Johns Hopkins (8-1)(0-1)(.521) 6. Utica (8-1)(0-1)(.547) 7. Salisbury (7-1)(0-1)(.477)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (9-0)(1-0)(.567) 2. R-MC (9-0)(1-0)(.496) 3. Huntingdon (8-1)(1-1)(.542) 4. UMHB (8-1)(1-1)(.540)  5. Hardin-Simmons (7-1)(1-1)(.489) 6. Bridgewater (8-1)(0-1)(.478) 7. Belhaven (8-1)(0-1)(.424)                                             
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (9-0)(2-0)(.471) 2. Albion (9-0)(0-0)(.534) 3. Alma (9-0)(0-0)(.461)  4. MSJ (9-0)(1-0)(.436) 5. John Carroll (7-2)(1-1)(.528) 6. Baldwin Wallace (7-2)(0-2)(.613)  7. DePauw (8-1)(0-0)(.448)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (9-0)(2-0)(.538) 2. Wartburg (9-0)(1-0)(.503) 3. Wheaton (7-2)(0-2)(.586) 4. Lake Forest (8-1)(1-1)(.484) 5. Monmouth (7-2)(1-1)(.551) 6.Ripon (8-1)(1-1)(.566)   7.  Aurora (8-1)(0-0)(.469)
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (8-0)(1-0)(.578) 2. Bethel (8-1)(1-1)(.600) 3. St. John's (8-1)(1-1)(.624) 4. UW-W (7-2)(2-1)(.663) 5. UW-L (6-1)(0-1)(.560) 6. C-M-S (7-1)(0-0)(.431) 7. UW-P (5-3)(2-1)(.595) 

Week 10 WAY TOO EARLY (BASED ON 1st RANKINGS) Unofficial DIII Bracketology

Most teams pretty close to their actual ranking except for Lake Forest in R5 which ended up not ranked at all.

I think my Pool C candidates remain the same. I think the final bid will between the two-loss teams in Region 5 and Region 6.

Problem is the two-loss teams in regions 5 and 6 will have 2 of the top 3 SOS vs other Pool C's as well as multiple RR results .  I guess it comes down to the value of win % vs the other criteria.