Bracketology Projection

[MRMIKESMITH]

Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

By "current SOS" do you mean for opponents played to date? Or for opponents that remain on their schedule?

"To date". You can find the SOS here - https://d3football.com/seasons/2021/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

[D3fanboy]

Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

a couple of those bolded SOS are going to be dropping like rocks in the next few weeks.  Dont you just love that D3 has an actual playoff?

[WW]

Week 8 Unofficial DIII Bracketology This week I used Massey Projections for current tie breakers. If a team is in the stand-alone lead (i.e. Susquehanna), I projected them to win out. Current overall records takes precedence regarding 2nd play finishers (i.e. not projecting George Fox to beat Whitworth).

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Union (.449) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.657) - R6
Whitworth (.598) - R6
R-MC (.546) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.542) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.516) - R4
Wheaton (.561) - R5
Chicago (.515) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Lake Forest (.452)

a couple of those bolded SOS are going to be dropping like rocks in the next few weeks.  Dont you just love that D3 has an actual playoff?

Sure do. And I mostly love that there's an objective means of deciding who gets to participate.

[Inkblot]

I think this is where things stand in each conference:

ARC: Central's to lose. No one else controls their own destiny, though a 3-way tie with Dubuque and Wartburg is possible.

ASC: Mary Hardin–Baylor leads. Howard Payne still controls their own destiny.

CCC: Endicott, Salve Regina, and Western New England are all 3-1 and could be headed for a three-way tie. It looks like the tiebreaker would be overall SOS. Husson is 2-1 with Salve and WNE still on the schedule.

CCIW: North Central leads. No one else controls their own destiny, though a 3-way tie with WashU and Wheaton is possible.

Centennial: Susquehanna leads at 6-0, but has played neither 5-1 team. Muhlenberg controls their own destiny.

ECFC: Anna Maria is 3-0. Castleton, at 3-1, controls their own destiny; Gallaudet and Alfred State both need help.

Empire 8: Alfred and Cortland meet this week for the outright lead. If Alfred wins, Brockport has a chance to make it a 3-way tie.

HCAC: Rose–Hulman leads. Mount St. Joseph still controls their own destiny.

Liberty: Ithaca is 4-0 and Union is 3-0. Hobart and RPI can still complicate things.

MAC: Delaware Valley leads, but Wilkes controls their own destiny.

MASCAC: The winner between Bridgewater State and Framingham State will almost certainly take the title.

MIAA: Hope and Trine are tied at 3-0, but Albion still controls their own destiny.

MIAC: St. John's leads the Northwoods division, though Carleton still controls their own destiny. The Skyline division will come down to the Augsburg – Bethel game.

MWC: Lake Forest and Monmouth are 6-0 and meet this week. If Lake Forest wins, Chicago has a chance at a three-way tie.

NACC: Aurora and Benedictine are 5-0 and meet this week. If Aurora wins, Lakeland has a chance at a three-way tie.

NCAC: DePauw leads at 6-0. Denison, at 5-1, controls their own destiny. The two meet this week.

NEWMAC: 4-0 Merchant Marine and 3-0 Springfield meet this week. If Springfield wins, Catholic has a chance at a three-way tie.

NJAC: Salisbury would have to lose two of their last three to miss out on the title.

NWC: George Fox and Linfield are 4-0 and meet this week. If George Fox wins, Whitworth has a chance at a three-way tie.

OAC: Mount Union would have to lose two of their last three to miss out on the title.

ODAC: Washington & Lee would have to lose their last two conference games to miss out on the title.

PAC: There is a four-way tie at 5-1, each loss being to another 5-1 team. Westminster has the advantage, having played all three of the others and beaten two of them, but none of the four control their own destiny.

SAA: Birmingham–Southern and Trinity are both 4-0. Berry still has a chance at a three-way tie.

SCIAC: Redlands would have to lose their last two to miss out on the title.

UMAC: Greenville leads at 3-0. No one else controls their own destiny, but there are three one-loss teams.

USA South: Huntingdon would have to lose two of their last three to miss out on the title.

WIAC: The winner of the La Crosse – Whitewater game will win the title, unless that team loses their other two remaining games.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

1 Pool A bid locked up, but lots more can be next week

Locked
E8: Cortland

Single game scenario
ARC: Central win vs Dubuque
ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor win vs Howard Payne
CCIW: North Central win at WashU
MAC: Delaware Valley win at Wilkes
MASCAC: Framingham St win vs Bridgewater St
NACC: Aurora win at Lakeland
NCAC: DePauw win vs Oberlin
NJAC: Salisbury win vs TCNJ
NWC: Linfield win at Willamette
OAC: Mount Union win vs Muskingum
ODAC: Washington & Lee win vs Ferrum
SAA: Trinity (TX) at Birmingham-Southern winner
SCIAC: Redlands win at Whittier
USAC: Huntingdon win vs Maryville
WIAC: La Crosse at Whitewater winner

Multiple game scenario
CC: Muhlenberg win at Susquehanna AND Johns Hopkins loss vs Dickinson AND Ursinus loss vs Juniata
HCAC: Rose-Hulman win at Franklin AND Mount St Joseph loss vs Hanover
LL: Union win at Ithaca AND RPI loss at St Lawrence
MIAA: Hope win vs Albion AND Trine loss at Alma
MWC: Lake Forest win vs Beloit AND Chicago loss vs Lawrence
NEWMAC: Springfield win at MIT AND Catholic loss vs Norwich
PAC: Carnegie Mellon win vs Washington & Jefferson AND Westminster (PA) loss vs St Vincent AND Grove City loss at Case Western Reserve

Going to week 11
CCC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Salve Regina @ Husson 11/6; Husson @ W New England 11/13; Endicott def Husson, Endicott def WNE, WNE def Salve, Salve def Endicott
ECFC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Castleton @ Alfred St 11/6; Gallaudet @ Anna Maria 11/6; Castleton @ Gallaudet 11/13; Castleton def Anna Maria; Anna Maria def Alfred St; Alfred St def Gallaudet
MIAC: St John's vs Augustana/Bethel winner in championship
UMAC: 4-0 Greenville plays 4-1 Minnesota-Morris 11/13; Morris doesn't play next week

[wally_wabash]

Cortland is in.   

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Cortland is in.   

Missed that. Only 1 conference game left for them and they own the tiebreakers.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Week 9 Unofficial DIII Bracketology
This week I projected UW-Lacrosse, H-S, Whitworth (RR win over Carnegie Mellon), Johns Hopkins, and  Wheaton

Pool C Teams by current SOS (no particular order):

UW-Lacrosse (.564) - R6
Whitworth (.531) - R6
R-MC (.559) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.561) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.511) - R4
Wheaton (.512) - R5
B-SC (.450) - R3
Johns Hopkins (.526)

[trickytroy32]

At the moment I'm predicting John Hopkins, UW-La Crosse, HSU, Wheaton, and B-SC.

[MRMIKESMITH]

At the moment I'm predicting John Hopkins, UW-La Crosse, HSU, Wheaton, and B-SC.

I think Whitworth depends on if Carnegie Mellon makes the board and is the PAC winner. However, their bad loss to Linfield is definitely rearing its head and the committee will look at who you have played and how well you did against that team. It will definitely be cost-effective to have two SAA teams, being able to have Huntingdon go to B-SC and H-S to Trinity, while sending Redlands to either UMHB or Linfield, while sending Lacrosse and/or Wheaton to Linfield. That's the most cost effective.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Here's the current Pool C eliminator table.


Cortland has the first golden ticket. Teams with gold names can win pool A with a win this week (15 conferences including 2 winner take all games)

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

My picks for Pool C (with no RRO, future changes in SoS, or future opponents considered). Things could likely change once Regional rankings are released.
1) UW-Whitewater (8-0, .604 SoS) or UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564 SoS)
2) Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .561 SoS)
3) Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559 SoS)
4) Whitworth (6-1, .531 SoS)
5) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526 SoS)

Left at the table
Region 1: Lycoming (6-2, .570 SoS) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 2: Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517 SoS)
Region 3: Birmingham-Southern (7-0, .485 SoS) or Trinity (7-0, .450 SoS)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace (7-1, .511 SoS)
Region 5: Wheaton (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 6: UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658 SoS)

Teams that could end up in Pool C and take a bid
St John's (8-0, .611 SoS) [if lose MIAC Championship]
Ithaca (7-1, .575 SoS) [if defeat Union, then RPI defeat Union]

[HSUCowboy2015]

My picks for Pool C (with no RRO, future changes in SoS, or future opponents considered). Things could likely change once Regional rankings are released.
1) UW-Whitewater (8-0, .604 SoS) or UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564 SoS)
2) Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .561 SoS)
3) Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559 SoS)
4) Whitworth (6-1, .531 SoS)
5) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526 SoS)

Left at the table
Region 1: Lycoming (6-2, .570 SoS) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 2: Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517 SoS)
Region 3: Birmingham-Southern (7-0, .485 SoS) or Trinity (7-0, .450 SoS)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace (7-1, .511 SoS)
Region 5: Wheaton (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 6: UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658 SoS)

Teams that could end up in Pool C and take a bid
St John's (8-0, .611 SoS) [if lose MIAC Championship]
Ithaca (7-1, .575 SoS) [if defeat Union, then RPI defeat Union]

I understand your thought process on this, I just don't see the committee leaving Wheaton out. I'm genuinely afraid that HSU may be out, my eyes are going to be on the Trinity - B-SC game this weekend. If it's a close call with Trinity winning, I'm not sure HSU is first to the table in Region 3 with Huntingdon winning their conference and B-SC having a 2 results against a RRO, one being a blow out win and the other a close loss.

[Baldini]

My picks for Pool C (with no RRO, future changes in SoS, or future opponents considered). Things could likely change once Regional rankings are released.
1) UW-Whitewater (8-0, .604 SoS) or UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564 SoS)
2) Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .561 SoS)
3) Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559 SoS)
4) Whitworth (6-1, .531 SoS)
5) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526 SoS)

Left at the table
Region 1: Lycoming (6-2, .570 SoS) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 2: Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517 SoS)
Region 3: Birmingham-Southern (7-0, .485 SoS) or Trinity (7-0, .450 SoS)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace (7-1, .511 SoS)
Region 5: Wheaton (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 6: UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658 SoS)

Teams that could end up in Pool C and take a bid
St John's (8-0, .611 SoS) [if lose MIAC Championship]
Ithaca (7-1, .575 SoS) [if defeat Union, then RPI defeat Union]

A little surprised with your selections here. I don't know if Whitworth even gets to the table, if UW-O wins out my guess is that they will be ahead of Whitworth in Region 6. I won't beat the Wheaton horse to death here, but can't imagine them left out regardless of their SoS number either.

[MRMIKESMITH]

My picks for Pool C (with no RRO, future changes in SoS, or future opponents considered). Things could likely change once Regional rankings are released.
1) UW-Whitewater (8-0, .604 SoS) or UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564 SoS)
2) Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .561 SoS)
3) Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559 SoS)
4) Whitworth (6-1, .531 SoS)
5) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526 SoS)

Left at the table
Region 1: Lycoming (6-2, .570 SoS) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 2: Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517 SoS)
Region 3: Birmingham-Southern (7-0, .485 SoS) or Trinity (7-0, .450 SoS)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace (7-1, .511 SoS)
Region 5: Wheaton (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 6: UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658 SoS)

Teams that could end up in Pool C and take a bid
St John's (8-0, .611 SoS) [if lose MIAC Championship]
Ithaca (7-1, .575 SoS) [if defeat Union, then RPI defeat Union]

I understand your thought process on this, I just don't see the committee leaving Wheaton out. I'm genuinely afraid that HSU may be out, my eyes are going to be on the Trinity - B-SC game this weekend. If it's a close call with Trinity winning, I'm not sure HSU is first to the table in Region 3 with Huntingdon winning their conference and B-SC having a 2 results against a RRO, one being a blow out win and the other a close loss.

If I'm a Hardin-Simmons fan, there is more criteria than RRO and SOS (i.e. NCC in 2019). However, I'd be rooting for B-SC to win as you mentioned, because B-SC will probably have 2 RR wins if Centre makes it onto the table. However, I'd also be rooting for Union to win out, therefore giving Ithaca a 2nd loss and root for Muhlenberg to beat Susquehanna, because Susquehanna probably will have 1 RRO win with Lycoming probably being ranked in R1 and maybe another if a two-loss Muhlenberg gets to the table in R2. Belhaven losing to Southwestern really hurt. Belhaven would have probably made it to the board. I mean the R3 committee can still add them to the board similar to how WASH-U made it to the board to help NCC in 2019. It really will depend on how R3 committee ranks a two loss Centre and/or Huntingdon amongst my projected "8" teams that will be ranked. If R3 gets 9 teams, which is the highest number of RR teams, I think a 3rd place ASC with 3 losses makes the board. There are so many scenarios, you may have two teams from R3. What would also throw a wrinkle is if St. John's loses to Bethel and St. John's falls into Pool C and they'd have a RRO win against Aurora. Another thing of note is common opponents. Hardin-Simmons has Texas Lutheran at the end of the year which will give Hardin-Simmons a common opponent with Trinity (Tx.), they beat them 51-14, you'd want Hardin-Simmons to put up a similar result.