Bracketology Projection

[MRMIKESMITH]

My picks for Pool C (with no RRO, future changes in SoS, or future opponents considered). Things could likely change once Regional rankings are released.
1) UW-Whitewater (8-0, .604 SoS) or UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564 SoS)
2) Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .561 SoS)
3) Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559 SoS)
4) Whitworth (6-1, .531 SoS)
5) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526 SoS)

Left at the table
Region 1: Lycoming (6-2, .570 SoS) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 2: Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517 SoS)
Region 3: Birmingham-Southern (7-0, .485 SoS) or Trinity (7-0, .450 SoS)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace (7-1, .511 SoS)
Region 5: Wheaton (7-1, .512 SoS)
Region 6: UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658 SoS)

Teams that could end up in Pool C and take a bid
St John's (8-0, .611 SoS) [if lose MIAC Championship]
Ithaca (7-1, .575 SoS) [if defeat Union, then RPI defeat Union]

A little surprised with your selections here. I don't know if Whitworth even gets to the table, if UW-O wins out my guess is that they will be ahead of Whitworth in Region 6. I won't beat the Wheaton horse to death here, but can't imagine them left out regardless of their SoS number either.

You are definitely right, however, if Carnegie Mellon wins out, they'd probably make it on the R2 ranking giving Whitworth a RRO win. Then in some twisted argument, you have to argue is Carnegie better opponent than Huntingdon. It all depends on how the R6 committee wants to place it's teams. If LaCrosse beats UW-W, UW-W will be the first team off the board regardless if Oshkosh becomes RR, it'd make sense to rank Whitworth (only if Carnegie wins out). However, that drubbing they took to Linfield can be a factor when looking at at-large teams on a national stage.

[Inkblot]

What does W&L's SOS look like? They're obviously not a Pool C candidate, but I'd imagine they provide the ceiling for R-M's regional ranking.

[jknezek]

What does W&L's SOS look like? They're obviously not a Pool C candidate, but I'd imagine they provide the ceiling for R-M's regional ranking.

Terrible... only OOC games that qualify for D3 were Sewanee (0-8) and CNU (4-5). E&H and Newport News Apprentice don't count, not that either would help. Looking at R-MC's OOC, Dickinson and Catholic, Dickinson could lose their next 2 and I wouldn't make Catholic the favorite over Springfield. So I suspect R-MC's own SOS will drop and take them lower in contention anyway. Especially with only 8 qualifying D3 games.

[D3fanboy]

https://twitter.com/LogHanRatings/status/1455594006247784454

Dr Logan Hansen giving his predictions on the upcoming RR

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

The first regional "rankings" are out.

Region 1	Team	D-III record	Overall record	SoS	RRO
	Deleware Valley	8-0	8-0	0.538	1-0	W Lycoming, vs Widener
	Endicott	7-2	7-2	0.553	1-1	W Husson, L Salve Regina
	Framingham State	6-2	6-2	0.464	0-0
	Husson	6-2	6-2	0.517	0-1	L Endicott, vs Salve Regina
	Lycoming	6-2	6-2	0.570	0-1	L Del Val, at Widener
	Merchant Marine	7-1	7-1	0.512	0-0
	Salve Regina	8-1	8-1	0.481	1-0	W Endicott, at Husson
	Widener	6-2	6-2	0.448	0-0	vs Lycoming, at Del Val
Region 2
	Cortland	8-0	8-0	0.493	0-0	vs Ithaca
	Ithaca	7-1	7-1	0.575	0-1	L RPI, vs Union, at Cortland
	Johns Hopkins	7-1	7-1	0.526	0-1	L Muhlenberg
	Muhlenberg	7-1	7-1	0.456	1-0	W Johns Hopkins
	RPI	7-1	7-1	0.494	1-0	W Ithaca, at Union
	Salisbury	6-1	6-1	0.513	0-1	L UW-Whitewater
	Union	8-0	8-0	0.489	0-0	at Ithaca, vs RPI
	Washington & Jefferson	7-1	7-1	0.517	1-0	W John Carroll
Region 3
	Birmingham-Southern	7-0	8-0	0.485	1-0	W Centre, vs Trinity (TX)
	Centre	6-2	6-2	0.555	0-2	L Trinity (TX), L Birmingham-Southern
	Hardin-Simmons	6-1	7-1	0.562	0-1	L Mary Hardin-Baylor
	Mary Hardin-Baylor	8-0	8-0	0.474	1-0	W Hardin-Simmons
	Randolph-Macon	6-1	8-1	0.559	0-1	L Washington & Lee
	Trinity (Texas)	7-0	7-0	0.450	1-0	W Centre, at Birmingham-Southern
	Washington & Lee	5-1	7-1	0.473	1-0	W Randolph-Macon
Region 4
	Albion	7-1	7-1	0.503	0-0	vs Hope
	Baldwin Wallace	7-1	7-1	0.511	1-1	W Heidelberg, L Mount Union, vs John Carroll
	DePauw	7-0	7-1	0.523	0-0
	Heidelberg	5-2	5-2	0.551	0-2	L Baldwin Wallace, L Mount Union, vs John Carroll
	Hope	7-1	7-1	0.506	0-1	L Coe, vs Albion
	John Carroll	6-2	6-2	0.503	0-2	L Washington & Jefferson, L Mount Union, at Heidelberg, at Baldwin Wallace
	Mount Union	8-0	8-0	0.560	3-0	W Baldwin Wallace, W John Carroll, W Heidelberg
Region 5
	Aurora	6-2	6-2	0.534	0-2	L St John's, L North Central (IL), at Lakeland
	Central	8-0	8-0	0.446	1-0	W Coe
	Chicago	7-1	7-1	0.498	0-0	at Lake Forest
	Coe	6-2	6-2	0.505	1-1	W Hope, L Central
	Lake Forest	8-0	8-0	0.483	0-0	vs Chicago
	Lakeland	7-1	7-1	0.447	0-0	vs Aurora
	North Central (Ill.)	8-0	8-0	0.520	2-0	W Aurora, W Wheaton (IL)
	Wheaton (Ill.)	7-1	7-1	0.512	0-1	L North Central (IL)
Region 6
	Bethel	7-1	7-1	0.544	0-1	L St John's
	Linfield	6-0	7-0	0.596	2-0	W Redlands, W Whitworth
	Redlands	6-1	6-1	0.574	0-1	L Linfield
	St. John's	8-0	8-0	0.611	2-0	W Aurora, W Bethel
	Whitworth	6-1	7-1	0.531	0-1	L Linfield
	UW-La Crosse	6-0	7-1	0.564	1-0	W UW-Oshkosh, at UW-Whitewater
	UW-Oshkosh	4-2	5-2	0.658	0-2	L UW-La Crosse, L UW-Whitewater
	UW-Whitewater	8-0	8-0	0.604	2-0	W Salisbury, W UW-Oshkosh, vs UW-La Crosse

[MRMIKESMITH]

Awesome work FC. It was noted that in other handbooks that the miles may have increased to 600. If so, that allows the PAC schools to travel to WIAC/CCIW Country if need be without a flight. It also allows for a Husson to get to other parts of New York and Central/Eastern PA Schools. It helps a little. Just can't do anything regarding the Island Programs. I wonder what the estimated cost to fly 75+ people on a charter flight compared to two overnight stays at a hotel and two charter buses for 3 days.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

My take on what the rankings could be if they actually ranked this week... gives us a good starting point to discuss since I'm sure I don't have them all correct. I'll get to the other regions tomorrow unless someone else decides to do them first.

Region 1
1) Delaware Valley (8-0, .538, 1-0) [Obvious #1 here]
2) Salve Regina (8-1, .481, 1-0) [a win over Endicott helps them be this high]
3) Endicott (7-2, .553, 1-1) [nice SoS and a RRO win gets them over the next two]
4) Merchant Marine (7-1, .512, 0-0) [One of three teams with less than two losses but no RRO]
5) Lycoming (6-2, .570, 0-1) [great SoS, but two losses and no RRO win]
6) Husson (6-2, .517, 0-1) [kind of average, better than those below, worse than those above]
7) Widener (6-2, .448, 0-0) [Chance to improve with 2 RRO coming up]
8) Framingham St (6-2, .464, 0-0) [A surprise to be in the rankings]

#2-5 were difficult because of one head to head result and different factors supporting different teams. Interesting that the committee chose Framingham St over a team like Western New England (5-3, .554, 1-2) or FDU-Florham (5-3, .556, 1-2). Better record but much lower SoS. I wonder when RRO are included if that will change. That choice might mean Merchant Marine is likely ahead of Lycoming and could be even higher.

Region 2
1) Cortland (8-0, .493, 0-0) [unbeaten but sub-.500 SoS currently should improve a little]
2) Union (8-0, .489, 0-0) [win the next two and they're ranked first]
3) Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517, 1-0) [lucky to have John Carroll for a RRO with the PAC keeping each other out of the rankings]
4) RPI (7-1, .494, 1-0) [beat Ithaca and better SoS than Muhlenberg]
5) Ithaca (7-1, .575, 0-1) [big SoS that will go up with 2 RRO to play]
6) Muhlenberg (7-1, .456, 1-0) [beat Johns Hopkins but that SoS stinks]
7) Johns Hopkins (7-1, .526, 0-1) [Muhlenberg is a big roadblock for them]
8) Salisbury (6-1, .513, 0-1) [could fall behind Susquehanna once RRO are in]

Susquehanna (7-1, .515, 1-1) not in the rankings. Not much record wise to separate everyone. Two head to heads set RPI ahead of Ithaca and Muhlenberg ahead of Johns Hopkins. After that it was pretty simple. I think the gap in SoS between Ithaca and Muhlenberg is too much for the Mules to be ahead. I could see an argument for 7/8 to flip.

[jknezek]

Awesome work FC. It was noted that in other handbooks that the miles may have increased to 600. If so, that allows the PAC schools to travel to WIAC/CCIW Country if need be without a flight. It also allows for a Husson to get to other parts of New York and Central/Eastern PA Schools. It helps a little. Just can't do anything regarding the Island Programs. I wonder what the estimated cost to fly 75+ people on a charter flight compared to two overnight stays at a hotel and two charter buses for 3 days.

Unfortunately figuring out the costs of charter flight is ridiculously opaque. I'm sure the NCAA has some kind of preferred partner for this kind of thing and has a contract with some discounts, but moving 70 players and 5 coaches, an athletic trainer, maybe another person or two with full football gear probably requires a 100 passenger jet. Football gear takes up a lot of space and weight and you probably aren't getting it all in the hold on a smaller jet. Minimum that will cost you $10K in per hour flight time charges, and honestly more like $15K minimum (I'm assuming the NCAA has a pretty good discount but who knows). Then you are going to pay for fuel, crew, landing fees, and Federal Excise Tax. A 6 hour flight, which is about 4 hours of actual air time and 1 hour of ground time on either end, so not a full cross country flight, is going to run over $100K, minimum, so a roundtrip is probably close to $250K. The incidental cost of $3-$4K (40 rooms, $80 per room on a discount) in hotel rooms and $5K - $6K ($14 per meal * 80 * 5) in food, plus another thousand for buses from airport to hotel (both ends), hotel to field and back, etc., and you are looking at somewhere between $250K and $300K most likely for every flight game.

I've had to look into this for something work related, but it was more than a few years ago. I also have a vague idea what W&L spent flying to CMS more than a few years back, relayed to me by a parent so maybe accurate or not. But... you can see why avoiding flights in the first round is important to the budget. There is no avoiding it in later rounds, so if you end up paying for 7 or 8 flight games, roughly 2 in each round which might be a bit high on average but I'm too lazy to check, the tournament can run over $2MM just for those games.

It's one reason I was shocked they put the Championship in Texas. It worked out, with UMHB making one appearance, but it probably cost close to $500K to fly in UWW and NCC in 2019. Don't get me wrong, Salem usually needed one and sometimes 2 flights, but the odds were in the NCAA's favor more than in Shenandoah TX that at least one team could be bused. The odds for Canton are even better.

Especially at 600 miles, UW-W will be between 500 and 600 miles from Canton, so that will be interesting to see the decision if necessary!

[Ralph Turner]

Awesome work FC. It was noted that in other handbooks that the miles may have increased to 600. If so, that allows the PAC schools to travel to WIAC/CCIW Country if need be without a flight. It also allows for a Husson to get to other parts of New York and Central/Eastern PA Schools. It helps a little. Just can't do anything regarding the Island Programs. I wonder what the estimated cost to fly 75+ people on a charter flight compared to two overnight stays at a hotel and two charter buses for 3 days.

Unfortunately figuring out the costs of charter flight is ridiculously opaque. I'm sure the NCAA has some kind of preferred partner for this kind of thing and has a contract with some discounts, but moving 70 players and 5 coaches, an athletic trainer, maybe another person or two with full football gear probably requires a 100 passenger jet. Football gear takes up a lot of space and weight and you probably aren't getting it all in the hold on a smaller jet. Minimum that will cost you $10K in per hour flight time charges, and honestly more like $15K minimum (I'm assuming the NCAA has a pretty good discount but who knows). Then you are going to pay for fuel, crew, landing fees, and Federal Excise Tax. A 6 hour flight, which is about 4 hours of actual air time and 1 hour of ground time on either end, so not a full cross country flight, is going to run over $100K, minimum, so a roundtrip is probably close to $250K. The incidental cost of $3-$4K (40 rooms, $80 per room on a discount) in hotel rooms and $5K - $6K ($14 per meal * 80 * 5) in food, plus another thousand for buses from airport to hotel (both ends), hotel to field and back, etc., and you are looking at somewhere between $250K and $300K most likely for every flight game.

I've had to look into this for something work related, but it was more than a few years ago. I also have a vague idea what W&L spent flying to CMS more than a few years back, relayed to me by a parent so maybe accurate or not. But... you can see why avoiding flights in the first round is important to the budget. There is no avoiding it in later rounds, so if you end up paying for 7 or 8 flight games, roughly 2 in each round which might be a bit high on average but I'm too lazy to check, the tournament can run over $2MM just for those games.

It's one reason I was shocked they put the Championship in Texas. It worked out, with UMHB making one appearance, but it probably cost close to $500K to fly in UWW and NCC in 2019. Don't get me wrong, Salem usually needed one and sometimes 2 flights, but the odds were in the NCAA's favor more than in Shenandoah TX that at least one team could be bused. The odds for Canton are even better.

Especially at 600 miles, UW-W will be between 500 and 600 miles from Canton, so that will be interesting to see the decision if necessary!

Great post! Glad to give you your 1000th "+1"!

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Since Greg went ahead and did a full ranking I'll defer to his expertise. My rankings of regions 1 and 2 weren't terribly far off.

The top three in each region not currently leading their conference (some teams still control their own destiny and some teams still play each other)
Region 1: Endicott - CCC (7-2, .553, 1-0), Lycoming - MAC (6-2, .570, 0-1), Merchant Marine - NEWMAC (7-1, .512, 0-0)
Region 2: RPI (7-1, .494, 1-0), Ithaca (7-1, .575, 0-1), Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517, 1-0)
Region 3: Trinity (Texas) (7-0, .450, 1-0), Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .562, 0-1), Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559, 0-1)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace   (7-1, .511, 1-1), Heidelberg (5-2, .551, 0-2), John Carroll (6-2, .503, 0-2)
Region 5: Wheaton (Ill.) (7-1, .512, 0-1), Coe (6-2, .505, 1-1), Chicago (7-1, .498, 0-0)
Region 6: UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564, 1-0), Bethel (7-1, .544, 0-1), UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658, 0-2)


Who's up first in Region 2 is still to be figured out with the LL matchups
Does Trinity stay ahead of Hardin-Simmons if they lose this weekend? H-S will drop SoS playing 1-6 Austin this week
Who gets selected first, Baldwin Wallace or Wheaton? Same record, both lost to region #1 (Wheaton a bit closer), but BW has a win against R4#5 and still play R4#6.
Bethel would have a 2nd loss (both to St John's) to be in the discussion and drop behind Oshkosh I think, but do they stay ahead of Whitworth?

Let's hurry up and get to the weekend so we can get a clearer picture

[jknezek]

Awesome work FC. It was noted that in other handbooks that the miles may have increased to 600. If so, that allows the PAC schools to travel to WIAC/CCIW Country if need be without a flight. It also allows for a Husson to get to other parts of New York and Central/Eastern PA Schools. It helps a little. Just can't do anything regarding the Island Programs. I wonder what the estimated cost to fly 75+ people on a charter flight compared to two overnight stays at a hotel and two charter buses for 3 days.

Unfortunately figuring out the costs of charter flight is ridiculously opaque. I'm sure the NCAA has some kind of preferred partner for this kind of thing and has a contract with some discounts, but moving 70 players and 5 coaches, an athletic trainer, maybe another person or two with full football gear probably requires a 100 passenger jet. Football gear takes up a lot of space and weight and you probably aren't getting it all in the hold on a smaller jet. Minimum that will cost you $10K in per hour flight time charges, and honestly more like $15K minimum (I'm assuming the NCAA has a pretty good discount but who knows). Then you are going to pay for fuel, crew, landing fees, and Federal Excise Tax. A 6 hour flight, which is about 4 hours of actual air time and 1 hour of ground time on either end, so not a full cross country flight, is going to run over $100K, minimum, so a roundtrip is probably close to $250K. The incidental cost of $3-$4K (40 rooms, $80 per room on a discount) in hotel rooms and $5K - $6K ($14 per meal * 80 * 5) in food, plus another thousand for buses from airport to hotel (both ends), hotel to field and back, etc., and you are looking at somewhere between $250K and $300K most likely for every flight game.

I've had to look into this for something work related, but it was more than a few years ago. I also have a vague idea what W&L spent flying to CMS more than a few years back, relayed to me by a parent so maybe accurate or not. But... you can see why avoiding flights in the first round is important to the budget. There is no avoiding it in later rounds, so if you end up paying for 7 or 8 flight games, roughly 2 in each round which might be a bit high on average but I'm too lazy to check, the tournament can run over $2MM just for those games.

It's one reason I was shocked they put the Championship in Texas. It worked out, with UMHB making one appearance, but it probably cost close to $500K to fly in UWW and NCC in 2019. Don't get me wrong, Salem usually needed one and sometimes 2 flights, but the odds were in the NCAA's favor more than in Shenandoah TX that at least one team could be bused. The odds for Canton are even better.

Especially at 600 miles, UW-W will be between 500 and 600 miles from Canton, so that will be interesting to see the decision if necessary!

Great post! Glad to give you your 1000th "+1"!

Huh. A milestone moment I guess. Thanks.

[hazzben]

Bethel would have a 2nd loss (both to St John's) to be in the discussion and drop behind Oshkosh I think, but do they stay ahead of Whitworth?

If Bethel loses close (like the first time) to SJU, I think they stay ahead of both UWO and Whitworth. With UWO they have a common opponent in UWP, 21 pt win for Bethel, 3 pt win for UWO. Whitworth got destroyed by Linfield. My gut says the RAC will give some consideration to the fact Bethel had to play SJU twice, so it's an 'odd' second loss. The logical question being, what happens if UWO had to play UWW or UWL twice? Likely a 3 loss team. We'll see though. I'm still hoping Bethel pulls off the upset and sends SJU into the Pool C discussion. 

[hazzben]

With Wally breaking down the regions and ranking the teams. I thought of this another way, how would we compare the quality and depth of the regions to each other? An interesting exercise since this is the first year of 6.

1. Region 6 - Even after moving UMHB and HS out, still far and away the best quality and depth. 3 teams with a case for a 1 seed, 6 teams that no one would be shocked to see in a region final or beyond.
2. Region 3 - A power, two more very good teams to close out the top 3, and then a bottom 3 that probably max out at 1 playoff win unless the get favorable matchups.
3. Region 2 - What it lacks in elite teams, it makes up for in depth. No one screams semi-final team (if the brackets were totally balanced and not geographically constrained), but you could talk me into any one of these teams making a run to the region finals.
4. Region 5 - An elite team, a nearly elite team, a Central team that looks good but hasn't played anyone, and the rest. (I'm still not totally sold on Central coming out of a down ARC.)
5. Region 4 - Top heavy. Mount then a drop to DePauw, then another drop to a group of teams that probably max out at a single playoff win.
6. Region 1 - very weak IMO. You have DelVal at 10, and then no one else in the region even receiving votes in the Top 25. A lot of meh SOS + a ton of 2 loss teams.

[Ice Bear]

With Wally breaking down the regions and ranking the teams. I thought of this another way, how would we compare the quality and depth of the regions to each other? An interesting exercise since this is the first year of 6.

1. Region 6 - Even after moving UMHB and HS out, still far and away the best quality and depth. 3 teams with a case for a 1 seed, 6 teams that no one would be shocked to see in a region final or beyond.
2. Region 3 - A power, two more very good teams to close out the top 3, and then a bottom 3 that probably max out at 1 playoff win unless the get favorable matchups.
3. Region 2 - What it lacks in elite teams, it makes up for in depth. No one screams semi-final team (if the brackets were totally balanced and not geographically constrained), but you could talk me into any one of these teams making a run to the region finals.
4. Region 5 - An elite team, a nearly elite team, a Central team that looks good but hasn't played anyone, and the rest. (I'm still not totally sold on Central coming out of a down ARC.)
5. Region 4 - Top heavy. Mount then a drop to DePauw, then another drop to a group of teams that probably max out at a single playoff win.
6. Region 1 - very weak IMO. You have DelVal at 10, and then no one else in the region even receiving votes in the Top 25. A lot of meh SOS + a ton of 2 loss teams.

Ice Bear says, well ****ing said hazzben. Hoping all don't mind Ice making an appearance outside the LLPP here on the general boards as he openly admits the rest of the country is not his expertise at all (although he's been trying to watch more out of region games and loves the quality of FB he sees). He's slowly gaining some more perspective on the levels/quality of football being played around the country. Admittedly, he has a long ****ing way to go.

Ice Bear feels hazzben makes some good points and especially regarding Regions 1 and 2. Region 2 has some "very good" football teams none of which are elite. Ice thinks this may be the best Cortland team in years and that one of the top four LL teams could win a game or two (at most) in the NCAA's. Del Val, who in the past has always been lumped in with top Region 2 teams finds itself mixed in with much of  New England in what is most certainly the weakest region. With that said you do have some good teams and programs that are growing and improving. Some of which really can compete and possible defeat a top region 2 team.

Ice Bear is really looking forward to how Region 6 shakes out.

[Hawks88]

Since Greg went ahead and did a full ranking I'll defer to his expertise. My rankings of regions 1 and 2 weren't terribly far off.

The top three in each region not currently leading their conference (some teams still control their own destiny and some teams still play each other)
Region 1: Endicott - CCC (7-2, .553, 1-0), Lycoming - MAC (6-2, .570, 0-1), Merchant Marine - NEWMAC (7-1, .512, 0-0)
Region 2: RPI (7-1, .494, 1-0), Ithaca (7-1, .575, 0-1), Washington & Jefferson (7-1, .517, 1-0)
Region 3: Trinity (Texas) (7-0, .450, 1-0), Hardin-Simmons (6-1, .562, 0-1), Randolph-Macon (6-1, .559, 0-1)
Region 4: Baldwin Wallace   (7-1, .511, 1-1), Heidelberg (5-2, .551, 0-2), John Carroll (6-2, .503, 0-2)
Region 5: Wheaton (Ill.) (7-1, .512, 0-1), Coe (6-2, .505, 1-1), Chicago (7-1, .498, 0-0)
Region 6: UW-La Crosse (6-0, .564, 1-0), Bethel (7-1, .544, 0-1), UW-Oshkosh (4-2, .658, 0-2)


Who's up first in Region 2 is still to be figured out with the LL matchups
Does Trinity stay ahead of Hardin-Simmons if they lose this weekend? H-S will drop SoS playing 1-6 Austin this week
Who gets selected first, Baldwin Wallace or Wheaton? Same record, both lost to region #1 (Wheaton a bit closer), but BW has a win against R4#5 and still play R4#6.
Bethel would have a 2nd loss (both to St John's) to be in the discussion and drop behind Oshkosh I think, but do they stay ahead of Whitworth?

Let's hurry up and get to the weekend so we can get a clearer picture

Plus Trinity's(and BSC) SoS will go up after this week. I'm not sure how close they can get to H-S though.