Bracketology Projection

MRMIKESMITH · October 11, 2021, 09:58:17 PM

Ralph Turner · October 11, 2021, 10:35:15 PM

Thanks for starting the post. I am not ragging on you, but want to push this discussion farther along!

Please project the Regional Rankings of Region 6 after the regular season that get a Pool C bid for Howard Payne.

IMHO, this regional alignment is not "Just".

As I stated elsewhere, there have been 21 Stagg Bowl since the Pools were initiated. This Region has had 21 teams (counting St Thomas of the MIAC) in the Stagg!

The ASC should have been sent to Region 3 to balance the strength across the Division and in numbers of teams considered.

(Only Bridgewater (2001) from the ODAC and Trinity TX (2002), an affiliate in the SAA, have made the Stagg. That is before some D3 players were born!

MRMIKESMITH · October 12, 2021, 10:11:45 AM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 11, 2021, 10:35:15 PM
Thanks for starting the post. I am not ragging on you, but want to push this discussion farther along!

Please project the Regional Rankings of Region 6 after the regular season that get a Pool C bid for Howard Payne.

IMHO, this regional alignment is not "Just".

As I stated elsewhere, there have been 21 Stagg Bowl since the Pools were initiated. This Region has had 21 teams (counting St Thomas of the MIAC) in the Stagg!

The ASC should have been sent to Region 3 to balance the strength across the Division and in numbers of teams considered.

(Only Bridgewater (2001) from the ODAC and Trinity TX (2002), an affiliate in the SAA, have made the Stagg. That is before some D3 players were born!

You make some great points Ralph. As oppose to projecting, I'll look at the Top SAA, PAC, ODAC, USAC and ASC and compare schedules. Key Win(s) teams above .500. In theory, I would project a 9-1 Birmingham Southern would have the best case of an at-large, that would give them potential wins over a 8-2 Huntingdon (USAC Champ) and 8-2 Centre who would have a win over potential 1st place MIAA Trine. As opposed to Trinity (Tx.) with only 1 win against 8-2 Centre. Kudos for Trinity for filling it's schedule, but Macalester rarely would help SOS, would probably decrease it. I think by not having the ASC, you get a better chance to get RR teams on board for the SAA.

R3:
Trinity (Tx.) (4-0) (1-0) - Key Win(s) - Centre (4-1), Berry (3-2)
W&J (5-0) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - John Carroll (3-2), St. Vincent (3-2)
Birmingham Southern (5-0) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - Huntingdon (3-2)
Centre (4-1) (0-1) - Key Win(s) Trine (4-2), Key Loss - Trinity (Tx.) (4-0)
Grove City (5-1) (1-0) - Key Win(s) - Carnegie Mellon (4-2) )Key Loss - Westminster (3-2)
W&L (5-1) (1-0) - Key Win(s) - RM-C (5-1)
RM-C (5-1) (2-1) - Key Win(s) - Ferrum (4-1), Catholic (3-2), Key Loss - W&L (5-1)
Ferrum (4-1) (0-1) - Key Win(s) - Averett (3-2) , Key Loss - RM-C (5-1)
Carnegie Mellon (4-2) (0-2) Key Win(s) - Westminster (3-2) Key losses - Whitworth (4-1), Grove City (5-1)
Shenandoah (4-1) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - Methodist (3-2)

Westminster (3-2) (0-2) Key Win(s) - Grove City (5-1), Key Losses - Mount (5-0), Carnegie (4-2)
Huntingdon (3-2) (0-2) Key Win(s) - Methodist (3-2) & Key Losses - UW-O (3-1), B-S (5-0)
Berry (3-2) (0-2) - Key Losses - UW-W (5-0), Trinity (4-0)
Methodist (3-2) (0-2) Key Losses - Shenandoah (4-1), Huntingdon (3-2)

ASC:
UMHB (5-0) (0-0) - Best Win(s) - H-S (4-1), ETBU (3-2)
HP (5-0) (0-0) - Best Win - ETBU (3-2)
H-S (4-1) (0-1) - Best Win - Belhaven (3-2), Key Loss - UMHB (5-0)
ETBU (3-2) (0-2) - Key Losses - UMHB (5-0), HP (5-0)

D3fanboy · October 12, 2021, 05:44:12 PM

great job projecting the playoffs, awesome work! but man, this is not the year for D3FB to go against the CFP top 4 method. It's the big boys and everyone else right?

nccfac · October 12, 2021, 10:20:25 PM

Wow, this is amazing work. Thanks for your effort! I know this far out there are many changes that are likely to happen. One that I saw was Wisconsin Whitewater versus Wheaton as a second round. Reminds me of Mount Union vs North Central in a second round which should have been a championship match. I know that these are sometimes unavoidable in D3 but it seems unfair to both teams.

MRMIKESMITH · October 13, 2021, 10:18:48 AM

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 12, 2021, 05:44:12 PM
great job projecting the playoffs, awesome work! but man, this is not the year for D3FB to go against the CFP top 4 method. It's the big boys and everyone else right?

Not sure, in 2019, a betting man would not have guessed NC-C to win the national championship and I mean for a while it was only two teams, then in 2012, St. Thomas entered the discussion, then UMHB (although vacated*) entered the discussion. Since everything is played on the field as opposed to being decided in a 5 star hotel conference room, I think what we have is the closest to the best way to decide a champion, can we improve, sure, is it necessary under current circumstances, no. IMHO, we have a good amount of teams, more than years past that I can argue and be in favor of. It's all about matchups. Some teams matchup better than others, some teams have better talent, some teams have coaches, some teams have better schemes.

MRMIKESMITH · October 13, 2021, 11:14:31 AM

Quote from: nccfac on October 12, 2021, 10:20:25 PM
Wow, this is amazing work. Thanks for your effort! I know this far out there are many changes that are likely to happen. One that I saw was Wisconsin Whitewater versus Wheaton as a second round. Reminds me of Mount Union vs North Central in a second round which should have been a championship match. I know that these are sometimes unavoidable in D3 but it seems unfair to both teams.

Regarding Wheaton being within the UW-W bracket, this was due to having the travel Quad and also giving the nod to an undefeated MIAC champion. I rewarded the MIAC champion (rightfully so IMHO) to not have to go face a potential #2/#3 overall seed.

My current bracket is no way shape or form something I realistically think the committee would put out, unless it goes back to having multiple rematches 1st round with conference members playing each other in the 1st and 2nd round. Ideally and historically, it would have consolidated more R1/R2 (formally ER) teams into Mount Union bracket, which financially would eliminate flights until Semi's (except travel quad), which would then lead to one bracket being heavily consisted of teams that include Central, UW-Lacrosse, St. John's, UW-W, NC-C, Wabash, etc.

2019, we had a total of 8 flights including the championship game. 2018 we had a few less than 2019, and 2017 had 8, and my current bracket has 13. Next week, I'll probably tailor it to have a max of 8 flights, which definitely will upset quite a few R4 and R6 members as it probably will have a full R1/R2 bracket.

Hawks88 · October 13, 2021, 11:47:22 AM

Would they fly Huntingdon someplace and fly someone else to Birmingham-Southern or since it wouldn't be a conference re-match would they save the two flights by doing the first round re-match?

MRMIKESMITH · October 13, 2021, 01:58:05 PM

Quote from: Hawks88 on October 13, 2021, 11:47:22 AM
Would they fly Huntingdon someplace and fly someone else to Birmingham-Southern or since it wouldn't be a conference re-match would they save the two flights by doing the first round re-match?

Unfortunately, I think so. However, in 2016, which was a unique year, when Mount lost to John Carroll and there were two OAC teams and only eight R1/R2 teams, they sent Huntingdon to Wheaton, which setup the CCIW champs to play 2nd round. I believe 2016 had only 8 flights. It would have been 9 or 10 had Huntingdon beat Wheaton and/or Olivet beat John Carroll. In my projected bracket, I projected that Susquehanna and Union would get Pool C, plus the recent NEWMAC champ, making 11 R1/R2 teams. Financially, you would have them rematch, other than the ASC on many occasions, I can't recall the last time two teams played each other in recent playoffs.

D3fanboy · October 13, 2021, 03:13:43 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 13, 2021, 10:18:48 AM
Quote from: D3fanboy on October 12, 2021, 05:44:12 PM
great job projecting the playoffs, awesome work! but man, this is not the year for D3FB to go against the CFP top 4 method. It's the big boys and everyone else right?

Not sure, in 2019, a betting man would not have guessed NC-C to win the national championship and I mean for a while it was only two teams, then in 2012, St. Thomas entered the discussion, then UMHB (although vacated*) entered the discussion. Since everything is played on the field as opposed to being decided in a 5 star hotel conference room, I think what we have is the closest to the best way to decide a champion, can we improve, sure, is it necessary under current circumstances, no. IMHO, we have a good amount of teams, more than years past that I can argue and be in favor of. It's all about matchups. Some teams matchup better than others, some teams have better talent, some teams have coaches, some teams have better schemes.

no doubt, the best way. I agree with your later post, the NCAA will definitely be very flight-averse after a covid year with less revenue. Mount will no doubt get a quadrant full of east coast teams, UWW and NCC will get most of the midwest powers and UMHB will get all of the misfits

Pat Coleman · October 13, 2021, 04:03:26 PM

Quote from: Hawks88 on October 13, 2021, 11:47:22 AM
Would they fly Huntingdon someplace and fly someone else to Birmingham-Southern or since it wouldn't be a conference re-match would they save the two flights by doing the first round re-match?

The committee doesn't protect non-conference rematches in the first round, only conference rematches.

MRMIKESMITH · October 18, 2021, 11:13:09 AM

Week 7 Unofficial DIII Bracketology

Pool C Teams by current SOS:
Ithaca (.661) - R2
UW-Lacrosse (.658) - R6
Whitworth (.655) - R6
R-MC (.590) - R3
Hardin-Simmons (.587) - R3
Baldwin Wallace (.549) - R4
Wheaton (.545) - R5
Trinity (TX.) (.503) - R3
Muhlenberg (.500) - R2
Chicago (.474) R5
B-SC (.462) - R3
Howard Payne (.419) - R6

At the current state, it's going to be really tough to not take Whitworth at 3 based upon the high SOS. Afterwards is where you have to look at resume and subjective factors and make the objective factors work for you. I think the R3 places Hardin-Simmons in from of R-MC as both teams resume are equal. Lastly, is where the committee would have to make Wheaton (Ill.) right and that is probably like last year adding Wash-U as a ranked team, because Northwestern (MN) is 1-5, Belhaven (4-2), Hampden-Sydney (2-4), Johns Hopkins (5-1), Centre (4-2). Also, be mindful that Chicago has beaten WASH-U as well, however with a SOS below .500, we will exclude them from conversation. The committees from each region will have to be very selective in placing their teams. The questions come down to R3 putting a team with slightly lower SOS with equal resumes above the team with the higher SOS. Then, the National Committee making Wheaton right. From a strictly objective standpoint Wheaton would be out and R-MC in. I can't recall the last time a Top 6 team has not made the playoff?

Inkblot · October 18, 2021, 11:40:37 AM

I feel like Wheaton's loss being to North Central is a significant point in their favor. North Central got in in similar circumstances in 2019 when I believe they had a worse SOS than Susquehanna.

What does Washington & Lee's SOS look like? That loss to Christopher Newport will probably hold them down somewhat, and I doubt R-M would be ranked above them.

MRMIKESMITH · October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM

Quote from: Inkblot on October 18, 2021, 11:40:37 AM
I feel like Wheaton's loss being to North Central is a significant point in their favor. North Central got in in similar circumstances in 2019 when I believe they had a worse SOS than Susquehanna.

What does Washington & Lee's SOS look like? That loss to Christopher Newport will probably hold them down somewhat, and I doubt R-M would be ranked above them.

W&L is currently in Pool A position, because of their H2H. Nevertheless, their SOS is .465. I don't think a second loss gets them into consideration. I think it's Pool A or bust for W&L. That CNU loss probably hurts them in terms of seeding if they were to win out due to some R1 teams being too far from Mount Union. Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

jknezek · October 18, 2021, 12:28:17 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM
Quote from: Inkblot on October 18, 2021, 11:40:37 AM
I feel like Wheaton's loss being to North Central is a significant point in their favor. North Central got in in similar circumstances in 2019 when I believe they had a worse SOS than Susquehanna.

What does Washington & Lee's SOS look like? That loss to Christopher Newport will probably hold them down somewhat, and I doubt R-M would be ranked above them.

W&L is currently in Pool A position, because of their H2H. Nevertheless, their SOS is .465. I don't think a second loss gets them into consideration. I think it's Pool A or bust for W&L. That CNU loss probably hurts them in terms of seeding if they were to win out due to some R1 teams being too far from Mount Union. Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. In that case Delaware Valley would be a top seed and you have R1/R2 bracket similar to 2019 or St. John's.

W&L is definitely pool A or bust. CNU hurts, Sewanee hurts, playing Newport News Apprentice doesn't help and probably hurts (not D3), and I'm not sure what E&H's status is for tournament consideration since they are transitioning to D2. Basically the whole OOC is a negative for W&L either because they lost (CNU), their opponent probably won't win a game (Sewanee), or the games don't really count for anything (NNA and E&H).