Bracketology Projection

[Ralph Turner]

With Wally breaking down the regions and ranking the teams. I thought of this another way, how would we compare the quality and depth of the regions to each other? An interesting exercise since this is the first year of 6.

1. Region 6 - Even after moving UMHB and HS out, still far and away the best quality and depth. 3 teams with a case for a 1 seed, 6 teams that no one would be shocked to see in a region final or beyond.
2. Region 3 - A power, two more very good teams to close out the top 3, and then a bottom 3 that probably max out at 1 playoff win unless the get favorable matchups.
3. Region 2 - What it lacks in elite teams, it makes up for in depth. No one screams semi-final team (if the brackets were totally balanced and not geographically constrained), but you could talk me into any one of these teams making a run to the region finals.
4. Region 5 - An elite team, a nearly elite team, a Central team that looks good but hasn't played anyone, and the rest. (I'm still not totally sold on Central coming out of a down ARC.)
5. Region 4 - Top heavy. Mount then a drop to DePauw, then another drop to a group of teams that probably max out at a single playoff win.
6. Region 1 - very weak IMO. You have DelVal at 10, and then no one else in the region even receiving votes in the Top 25. A lot of meh SOS + a ton of 2 loss teams.

Great analysis and well stated, hazzben. +1!

In Region 3, I can see the bottom 3 getting a win solely on geographic proximity, e.g., the #4 seed versus the #5 seed.

[D3fanboy]

the BSU-Trinity game this week seems massive for region 3.  BSU wins and I dont see how they wouldnt be "ranked" ahead of UMHB in terms of SOS and RRO.  If Trinity wins, I can't see them jumping UMHB but it would be very close, as long as Centre keeps winning.  Bad year for UMHB to have a 1-9 OOC opponent huh?

[wally_wabash]

the BSU-Trinity game this week seems massive for region 3.  BSU wins and I dont see how they wouldnt be "ranked" ahead of UMHB in terms of SOS and RRO.  If Trinity wins, I can't see them jumping UMHB but it would be very close, as long as Centre keeps winning.  Bad year for UMHB to have a 1-9 OOC opponent huh?

I understand the hollering that is going to happen, but I really don't see anybody other than UMHB being #1 in this region.  A team in Region 3 is going to have to:
- beat UMHB head to head
or
- have a favorable result against a common opponent
or
- go farther than UMHB in the previous championship tournament

to dislodge them from the #1 spot.  UMHB's bad SOS and 1-0 vs. RRO (and early-ish exit from the 2019 tournament) might cost them one of the four top seeds in the tournament, but I don't believe it's going to cost them the top spot in Region 3's rankings. 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Trying to update the important scores

Locked
E8: Cortland
MASCAC: Framingham St win vs Bridgewater St 47-13 final

Single game scenario
ARC: Central win vs Dubuque 28-0 2nd
ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor win vs Howard Payne 35-14 half
CCIW: North Central win at WashU 42-0 3rd
MAC: Delaware Valley win at Wilkes 16-0 half
NACC: Aurora win at Lakeland 14-13 2nd
NCAC: DePauw win vs Oberlin 38-7 3rd
NJAC: Salisbury win vs TCNJ 16-2 2nd
NWC: Linfield win at Willamette 4:00pm
OAC: Mount Union win vs Muskingum 28-7 2nd
ODAC: Washington & Lee win vs Ferrum 14-17 4th
SAA: Trinity (TX) at Birmingham-Southern winner 14-7 half
SCIAC: Redlands win at Whittier 4:00pm
USAC: Huntingdon win vs Maryville 38-0 2nd
WIAC: La Crosse at Whitewater winner 0-0 2nd

Multiple game scenario
HCAC: Rose-Hulman win at Franklin 24-7 half AND Mount St Joseph loss vs Hanover 3-0 2nd
LL: Union win at Ithaca 0-10 half AND RPI loss at St Lawrence 7-7 half
MIAA: Hope win vs Albion 31-31 3rd AND Trine loss at Alma 20-10 3rd
MWC: Lake Forest win vs Beloit 35-3 2nd AND Chicago loss vs Lawrence 28-0 2nd
PAC: Carnegie Mellon win vs Washington & Jefferson 27-3 3rd AND Westminster (PA) loss vs St Vincent 21-6 half AND Grove City loss at Case Western Reserve 14-20 3rd

Going to week 11
CC: Muhlenberg win at Susquehanna 31-20 3rd AND Johns Hopkins loss vs Dickinson 34-3 3rd AND Ursinus loss vs Juniata 44-7 final
CCC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Salve Regina @ Husson 10-24 4th; Husson @ W New England 11/13; Endicott def Husson, Endicott def WNE, WNE def Salve, Salve def Endicott
ECFC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Castleton @ Alfred St 17-25 4th; Gallaudet @ Anna Maria 21-13 half; Castleton @ Gallaudet 11/13; Castleton def Anna Maria; Anna Maria def Alfred St; Alfred St def Gallaudet
MIAC: St John's vs Augustana/Bethel winner in championship
NEWMAC: Springfield win at MIT 7:00pm AND Catholic loss vs Norwich 35-14 final
UMAC: 4-0 Greenville plays 4-1 Minnesota-Morris 11/13; Morris doesn't play next week

[jakeMN91]

Trying to update the important scores

Locked
E8: Cortland
MASCAC: Framingham St win vs Bridgewater St 47-13 final

Single game scenario
ARC: Central win vs Dubuque 28-0 2nd
ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor win vs Howard Payne 35-14 half
CCIW: North Central win at WashU 42-0 3rd
MAC: Delaware Valley win at Wilkes 16-0 half
NACC: Aurora win at Lakeland 14-13 2nd
NCAC: DePauw win vs Oberlin 38-7 3rd
NJAC: Salisbury win vs TCNJ 16-2 2nd
NWC: Linfield win at Willamette 4:00pm
OAC: Mount Union win vs Muskingum 28-7 2nd
ODAC: Washington & Lee win vs Ferrum 14-17 4th
SAA: Trinity (TX) at Birmingham-Southern winner 14-7 half
SCIAC: Redlands win at Whittier 4:00pm
USAC: Huntingdon win vs Maryville 38-0 2nd
WIAC: La Crosse at Whitewater winner 0-0 2nd

Multiple game scenario
HCAC: Rose-Hulman win at Franklin 24-7 half AND Mount St Joseph loss vs Hanover 3-0 2nd
LL: Union win at Ithaca 0-10 half AND RPI loss at St Lawrence 7-7 half
MIAA: Hope win vs Albion 31-31 3rd AND Trine loss at Alma 20-10 3rd
MWC: Lake Forest win vs Beloit 35-3 2nd AND Chicago loss vs Lawrence 28-0 2nd
PAC: Carnegie Mellon win vs Washington & Jefferson 27-3 3rd AND Westminster (PA) loss vs St Vincent 21-6 half AND Grove City loss at Case Western Reserve 14-20 3rd

Going to week 11
CC: Muhlenberg win at Susquehanna 31-20 3rd AND Johns Hopkins loss vs Dickinson 34-3 3rd AND Ursinus loss vs Juniata 44-7 final
CCC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Salve Regina @ Husson 10-24 4th; Husson @ W New England 11/13; Endicott def Husson, Endicott def WNE, WNE def Salve, Salve def Endicott
ECFC: 4 teams with 1 loss; Castleton @ Alfred St 17-25 4th; Gallaudet @ Anna Maria 21-13 half; Castleton @ Gallaudet 11/13; Castleton def Anna Maria; Anna Maria def Alfred St; Alfred St def Gallaudet
MIAC: St John's vs Augustana/Bethel winner in championship
NEWMAC: Springfield win at MIT 7:00pm AND Catholic loss vs Norwich 35-14 final
UMAC: 4-0 Greenville plays 4-1 Minnesota-Morris 11/13; Morris doesn't play next week

Thanks for the update. One small correction about the MIAC. It'll be either Bethel or Augsburg (not Augustana) who plays SJU in the championship game. BU currently leads 21-7 at halftime.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I always get the the MIAC Aug and the CCIW Aug mixed up

Washington & Lee survives yet another tight game, this time against Ferrum 28-24 and win the ODAC.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Games are finishing up left and right now.

Locked
ARC: Central win vs Dubuque 56-7 4th
ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor win vs Howard Payne 59-14 final
CCIW: North Central win at WashU 59-20 final
E8: Cortland
MAC: Delaware Valley win at Wilkes 30-0 final
MASCAC: Framingham St win vs Bridgewater St 47-13 final
NCAC: DePauw win vs Oberlin 66-13 final
NJAC: Salisbury win vs TCNJ 37-23 final
OAC: Mount Union win vs Muskingum 73-7 final
ODAC: Washington & Lee win vs Ferrum 28-24 final
SAA: Trinity (TX) at Birmingham-Southern winner 28-27 final
USAC: Huntingdon win vs Maryville 52-33 final
WIAC: La Crosse at Whitewater winner 7-13 final

Single game scenario
NACC: Aurora win at Lakeland 32-20 4th
NWC: Linfield win at Willamette 28-7 2nd
SCIAC: Redlands win at Whittier 28-0 2nd

Going to week 11
CC: Muhlenberg win vs Moravian
CCC: Endicott win @ Nichols; otherwise Husson @ W New England winner
ECFC: Anna Maria win vs SUNY-Maritime
HCAC: Mount St Joseph @ Rose-Hulman winner
LL: RPI win @ Union; Union win gives title to Ithaca
MIAA: Albion win vs Alma
MIAC: St John's vs Bethel winner
MWC: Lake Forest win vs Chicago; Chicago win plus Monmouth win vs Knox creates 3 way tie
NEWMAC: Springfield win vs Catholic;
PAC: Carnegie Mellon win vs Case Western Reserve
UMAC: Greenville win vs Minnesota-Morris

[Inkblot]

Whitworth lost, so there will only be one NWC playoff team.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Aurora, Linfield and Redlands all locked up their playoff spot so that means half the field is set. 11 conferences will be decided next week plus those 5 elusive Pool C bids

[MRMIKESMITH]

Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology
This week I projected UW-Lacrosse,Baldwin-Wallace, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton. At this current juncture, UW-Lacrosse has a the #4 SOS and a RR win over UW-Oshkosh and a close lost to the UW-W. Next,

Pool C Teams by current SOS (no particular order):

UW-Lacrosse (7-1*,.608, 1-1) - R6 - 4th best SOS.
Birmingham-Southern (8-1, .525, 1-1) - R3 I think Huntingdon (7-2,.506, 0-2) replaces Centre still giving them a RR win.
R-MC (8-1, .549, 0-1) - R3; Needs for Catholic (6-3) to win next week against Springfield and sneak onto a weak R1 Regional Ranking.
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, .528, 0-1) - R3 Does Howard Payne (6-3, .519, 0-2) sneak in front of Huntingdon?
Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) - R4 - Does John Carroll remain on Region 4 rankings to give B-W 2 RR wins?
Wheaton (8-1, .495, 1*-1) - R5 - *Projecting WASH-U to replace Lakeland due to SOS. Like NC-C, probably going to be last team in.
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) - Like Susquehanna last year, they are at the mercy of the committee and whether or not Susquehanna can get on the Board. Susquehanna needs Lycoming to stay rank, but their SOS will drop from .534 after playing a 1-8 Juniata next week. 
Union (8-1, .530, 1-1) - R2 - Lose next week and their out. Needs Springfield to beat Catholic to sneak onto (or stay on) Region 1 Regional Rankings. Also, may still get RPI on the board at 8-2 over a crowded projected 2 loss teams in Region 2.
RPI (8-1, .519, 1-0) - R2 - Loses next week and their out. Win and their Pool A.
Ithaca (8-1, .596, 1-1) - R2; RPI loses next week and they are Pool A, if not, they need to beat Cortland giving them two RR wins and a huge SOS boost that would make them 1st off the board in Pool C.

[Baldini]

Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology
This week I projected UW-Lacrosse,Baldwin-Wallace, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton. At this current juncture, UW-Lacrosse has a the #4 SOS and a RR win over UW-Oshkosh and a close lost to the UW-W. Next,

Pool C Teams by current SOS (no particular order):

UW-Lacrosse (7-1*,.608, 1-1) - R6 - 4th best SOS.
Birmingham-Southern (8-1, .525, 1-1) - R3 I think Huntingdon (7-2,.506, 0-2) replaces Centre still giving them a RR win.
R-MC (8-1, .549, 0-1) - R3; Needs for Catholic (6-3) to win next week against Springfield and sneak onto a weak R1 Regional Ranking.
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, .528, 0-1) - R3 Does Howard Payne (6-3, .519, 0-2) sneak in front of Huntingdon?
Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) - R4 - Does John Carroll remain on Region 4 rankings to give B-W 2 RR wins?
Wheaton (8-1, .495, 1*-1) - R5 - *Projecting WASH-U to replace Lakeland due to SOS. Like NC-C, probably going to be last team in.
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) - Like Susquehanna last year, they are at the mercy of the committee and whether or not Susquehanna can get on the Board. Susquehanna needs Lycoming to stay rank, but their SOS will drop from .534 after playing a 1-8 Juniata next week. 
Union (8-1, .530, 1-1) - R2 - Lose next week and their out. Needs Springfield to beat Catholic to sneak onto (or stay on) Region 1 Regional Rankings. Also, may still get RPI on the board at 8-2 over a crowded projected 2 loss teams in Region 2.
RPI (8-1, .519, 1-0) - R2 - Loses next week and their out. Win and their Pool A.
Ithaca (8-1, .596, 1-1) - R2; RPI loses next week and they are Pool A, if not, they need to beat Cortland giving them two RR wins and a huge SOS boost that would make them 1st off the board in Pool C.

UW-O is still very much in the Pool C hunt.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Week 10 Unofficial DIII Bracketology
This week I projected UW-Lacrosse,Baldwin-Wallace, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca and Wheaton. At this current juncture, UW-Lacrosse has a the #4 SOS and a RR win over UW-Oshkosh and a close lost to the UW-W. Next,

Pool C Teams by current SOS (no particular order):

UW-Lacrosse (7-1*,.608, 1-1) - R6 - 4th best SOS.
Birmingham-Southern (8-1, .525, 1-1) - R3 I think Huntingdon (7-2,.506, 0-2) replaces Centre still giving them a RR win.
R-MC (8-1, .549, 0-1) - R3; Needs for Catholic (6-3) to win next week against Springfield and sneak onto a weak R1 Regional Ranking.
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, .528, 0-1) - R3 Does Howard Payne (6-3, .519, 0-2) sneak in front of Huntingdon?
Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1) - R4 - Does John Carroll remain on Region 4 rankings to give B-W 2 RR wins?
Wheaton (8-1, .495, 1*-1) - R5 - *Projecting WASH-U to replace Lakeland due to SOS. Like NC-C, probably going to be last team in.
Johns Hopkins (8-1, .510, 0-1) - Like Susquehanna last year, they are at the mercy of the committee and whether or not Susquehanna can get on the Board. Susquehanna needs Lycoming to stay rank, but their SOS will drop from .534 after playing a 1-8 Juniata next week. 
Union (8-1, .530, 1-1) - R2 - Lose next week and their out. Needs Springfield to beat Catholic to sneak onto (or stay on) Region 1 Regional Rankings. Also, may still get RPI on the board at 8-2 over a crowded projected 2 loss teams in Region 2.
RPI (8-1, .519, 1-0) - R2 - Loses next week and their out. Win and their Pool A.
Ithaca (8-1, .596, 1-1) - R2; RPI loses next week and they are Pool A, if not, they need to beat Cortland giving them two RR wins and a huge SOS boost that would make them 1st off the board in Pool C.

UW-O is still very much in the Pool C hunt.

I agree with the 12th rank SOS and a possible RR win against Huntingdon. They will certainly be on the table after LaCrosse. They still have a good River Falls team and can definitely play themselves in next weekend. The Committee has placed 3 WIAC schools into the tournament and it isn't unprecedented. There are many factors going into next week and a lot of games that don't necessarily have playoff implications will indirectly have playoff implications. As I aforementioned the Catholic and Springfield matchup will factor into either Union or R-MC getting a RR win. Also, R-MC playing Hampden-Sydney will create a common opponent between R-MC and Baldwin-Wallace. I do know that they'll be behind LaCrosse, Birmingham-Southern, and a 9-1 Pool C Ithaca. The next depends on how the National Committee chooses to view a Baldwin Wallace, R-MC, Hardin-Simmons, Johns Hopkins, and Wheaton. Criteria aside, most believe that the Committee will use common sense and place Wheaton (Ill.) and little less likely Hardin-Simmons into the playoffs. If the committee goes that route, Oshkosh will have a huge argument, but I think a close loss to 2nd place WIAC, somewhat good lost to #1 WIAC, and an "escape" to the #7 Ranked Region 3 team may not be enough. I know Salisbury in 2010 actually went 7-2 with a blowout win against playoff participant CNU and two very close losses to undefeated Wesley and one loss Hampden-Sydney (both playoff participants) got them in late. Would I be surprised if they got in No. If they were selected on selection Sunday, I'm sure they'd be sent to either St. John's or Linfield in my bracket scenario. It's amazing still a lot of factors going into the Week 11.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Based on the projected rankings before the weekend plus action from the weekend, here's how I have Pool C

R1: Salve Regina (8-2, .492, 1-1) or Merchant Marine (7-1, .517, 0-0)
R2: Ithaca (8-1, .596, 1-1), Union (8-1, .530, 0-1) (If RPI wins, they're pool A, if Union wins Ithaca is pool A and Union would be first on the board)
R3: Birmingham-Southern (7-1, .525, 1-1), Hardin-Simmons (7-1, .528, 0-1)
R4: Baldwin Wallace (8-1, .515, 1-1), Heidelberg (6-2, .552, 1-2)
R5: Wheaton (8-1, .495, 0-1), Coe (7-2, .517, 1-1)
R6: La Crosse (6-1, .608, 1-1), Bethel (8-1, .541, 0-1), Oshkosh (5-2, .587, 0-2),

With these selections I'd say La Crosse, Ithaca, Birmingham-Southern, Baldwin Wallace, Hardin-Simmons.
Left at the table: Salve Regina (8-2, .492, 1-1), Union (8-1, .530, 0-1), Heidelberg (6-2, .552, 1-2), Wheaton (8-1, .495, 0-1), Bethel (8-1, .541, 0-1)

If we had no criteria and were just selecting I think we'd all say Wheaton 1st selection... but they're very much on the edge of not being selected and their SoS will drop again next week.

If Union beats RPI, then Ithaca is Pool A and Union would take their spot being selected. If Bethel beats St John's, then St John's would steal a Pool C bid.

[hazzben]

As it stands Bethel is a bit of a blocker for UWO. If GAC gets ranked (good chance of this), that's a RRO W for Bethel, plus a decisive win against UWP, who UWO beat in very close game. SOS will be in UWO's favor, but will it be enough to jump Bethel, if they lose a close one to SJU? Anyone's best guess how the RAC treats a second loss to SJU.

If SJU loses, then we obviously have to reshuffle the entire deck. They'd be 3-1 RRO (assuming GAC is ranked) plus a really strong SOS. Probably the first off the board for Pool C.

[Ralph Turner]

Please construct the bracketin which UMHB is placed.