Bracketology Projection

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Something that no one has mentioned... Washington & Lee lost today... which releases Randolph-Macon (9-1, .556, 0-1) from being stuck behind them. They might be able to jump up ahead of Hardin-Simmons in the Region 3 rankings now.

[Hawks88]

No idea what we'll get, but for the sake of the field, I'd want UW-L, Wheatonb, Hardin-Simmons and Bethel.

Not sure why some folks seem to assume Birmingham is a lock. Lousy SoS, middlin' conference at best. What's their best win?

Wins over RR Huntingdon, solid teams like Berry and Centre. Not a power conference, but conference history is not part of the criteria.

BSC should be 2-1 vs RRO's, 1 point loss to Trinity and wins over Huntingdon and Centre. Centre was in first regional rankings and good chance they move back into the final one with the W&L loss.

[Hawks88]

Something that no one has mentioned... Washington & Lee lost today... which releases Randolph-Macon (9-1, .556, 0-1) from being stuck behind them. They might be able to jump up ahead of Hardin-Simmons in the Region 3 rankings now.

I was thinking of that too with the huge advantage in SoS but their only RRO is the loss to previously ranked W&L while HSU has the close loss to #1 UMHB so I'm not too sure.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Here's who looks like they'd be at the table (Region 2 has a hard choice to decide, personally I prefer Ithaca, but they could stick with 1 loss Hopkins):
Merchant Marine (8-1, .488, 0-0)
Ithaca (8-2, .613, 2-2) or Johns Hopkins (9-1, .494, 0-1)
Birmingham-Southern (8-1, .504, 1-1)
Baldwin Wallace (8-2, .522, 1-2)
Wheaton (9-1, .481, 0-1)
UW-La Crosse (8-1, .573, 1-1)

I'm going La Crosse, Birmingham-Southern, Ithaca, Bethel, and Hardin-Simmons. If Region 2 slots Ithaca behind Johns Hopkins, I think Wheaton slips in and R2 gets shut out. Those two loss teams just look so much more attractive than the 1 loss teams with little in the way of RRO and sub .500 SoS to me.
I can fully understand if it ends up being La Crosse, BSC, Hardin-Simmons, Wheaton, Johns Hopkins though. I think it comes down to what the regional committees do at the bottom of their rankings. Does R2 slip Susquehanna in to help Hopkins out?

[USee]

FCG I'd like some of what you are smoking

[thunderdog]

Question for the group:
When's the last time a 2-loss (d3 losses), entered the playoffs as a pool C, when that team lost their 2nd game in their final game? Anyone know?
I vaguely remember 'momentum' or 'performance in the final 2-3 games' as part of the selection process... or am I smoking something?

[thunderdog]

I don't see any 2 loss teams making the field as pool C teams. Too many qualified options with only 1 loss.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Since no one seems to like my thought of a 2 loss team making the field (I truly believe at least 1 will get in with all the mediocre 1 loss options), here's my take on a bracket with La Crosse, BSC, H-S, Wheaton, and Johns Hopkins as pool C.

Greenville @ (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor
Hardin-Simmons @ Trinity (TX)
Huntingdon @ Birmingham-Southern
Redlands @ (2) Linfield

Aurora @ (1) UW-Whitewater
Rose-Hulman @ Central
Wheaton @ UW-La Crosse
Lake Forest @ (2) St John's

Carnegie Mellon @ (1) North Central
DePauw @ Albion
Washington & Lee @ Salisbury
Springfield @ (2) Mount Union

Springfield @ (1) Delaware Valley
Johns Hopkins @ RPI
Endicott @ Muhlenberg
Framingham St @ (2) Cortland

2 flights round 1, I think just 1 round 2.

[BSCpanthers]

Does the NCAA pay for the flights in the playoffs, or is that on the school to pay???

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Does the NCAA pay for the flights in the playoffs, or is that on the school to pay???

NCAA does. Which is why we have so much talk about limiting flights and who's within 600 miles.

[USee]

FCG, you do realize that winning percentage is a primary criteria?  So taking a 2 loss team (let alone 2 of them) would require minimizing the one criteria that's hard to ignore. SOS is flawed due to the proliferation of 10 team conferences (the committees seem to acknowledge that with their rankings). There is only one time I can recall a 2 loss team going in ahead of a 1 loss team (St John Fisher?) and that may have been at the regional level, not the national level. It just doesn't happen.

[FishHack76]

Since no one seems to like my thought of a 2 loss team making the field (I truly believe at least 1 will get in with all the mediocre 1 loss options), here's my take on a bracket with La Crosse, BSC, H-S, Wheaton, and Johns Hopkins as pool C.

Greenville @ (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor
Hardin-Simmons @ Trinity (TX)
Huntingdon @ Birmingham-Southern
Redlands @ (2) Linfield

Aurora @ (1) UW-Whitewater
Rose-Hulman @ Central
Wheaton @ UW-La Crosse
Lake Forest @ (2) St John's

Carnegie Mellon @ (1) North Central
DePauw @ Albion
Washington & Lee @ Salisbury
Springfield @ (2) Mount Union

Springfield @ (1) Delaware Valley
Johns Hopkins @ RPI
Endicott @ Muhlenberg
Framingham St @ (2) Cortland

2 flights round 1, I think just 1 round 2.

I had similar thoughts on my bracket. I had Del Valley and Cortland heading up one bracket. I put the H-S/Trinity winner facing the Redlands/Linfield winner and Huntingdon/B-S facing UMHB/Wash & Lee (because I had Johns Hopkins facing Salisbury.) The Alabama teams will have to fly and someone will have to fly to the West Coast anyway so why not avoid an ASC rematch?

I sent Rose-Hulman to NCC and DePauw to Mt. Union.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

FCG, you do realize that winning percentage is a primary criteria?  So taking a 2 loss team (let alone 2 of them) would require minimizing the one criteria that's hard to ignore. SOS is flawed due to the proliferation of 10 team conferences (the committees seem to acknowledge that with their rankings). There is only one time I can recall a 2 loss team going in ahead of a 1 loss team (St John Fisher?) and that may have been at the regional level, not the national level. It just doesn't happen.

I do realize that... but it's not the only primary criteria. If that's the only factor supporting a team and everything else is overwhelmingly in favor against, how can you not pick the team with the more impressive resume? I just find it hard to weight win percentage so much that it outweighs everything else combined. At that point win percentage becomes the only criteria and everything else is secondary which is not the case.

[FishHack76]

Del Valley
Springfield

Endicott
@RPI

Framingham
@Muehlenberg

Anna Maria
@Cortland

——————
UMHB
Washington and Lee

Huntingdon
@B-S

Hardin Simmons
@Trinity

Redlands
@Linfield
———————-
NCC
Rose-Hulman

Albion
@Carnegie Mellon

Johns Hopkins
@Salisbury

DePauw
@Mt. Union
—————
UW-Whitewater
Greenville

Wheaton
@Lake Forest

LaCrosse
@Central

Aurora
@St. John's

[USee]

It's not the only criteria but since its only happened 1x in the pool era (picking a 2 loss team over a 1 loss team) it seems like its a pretty important one. It's hard to evaluate these teams with limited data. But the football minds of the committee have the flexibility to use the criteria to find the best teams.