Bracketology Projection

[MRMIKESMITH]

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (1-0) 4. Kings (1-1) 5. Stevenson (1-2) 6. Springfield (0-0) 7. Plymouth State (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Johns Hopkins (1-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-1) 5. Susquehanna (0-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Morrisville (0-1)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)                                             
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (1-0) 3. MSJ (0-0) 4. DePauw (1-0) 5. Alma (0-1) 6. John Carroll (0-1)  7. Denison (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Ripon (1-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6.  Monmouth (0-2) 7. WASH-U (0-2)   
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (1-0) 2. Bethel (2-1) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-2) 5. UW-L (1-1) 6. Pomona-Pitzer (0-0) 7. UW-Platteville (2-2) 

Week 8 WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology

[Ron Boerger]

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (1-0) 4. Kings (1-1) 5. Stevenson (1-2) 6. Springfield (0-0) 7. Plymouth State (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Johns Hopkins (1-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-1) 5. Susquehanna (0-1) 6. Salisbury (0-1) 7. Morrisville (0-1)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1)  4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)                                             
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (1-0) 3. MSJ (0-0) 4. DePauw (1-0) 5. Alma (0-1) 6. John Carroll (0-1)  7. Denison (0-1)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (1-0) 3. Ripon (1-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6.  Monmouth (0-2) 7. WASH-U (0-2)   
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (1-0) 2. Bethel (2-1) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-2) 5. UW-L (1-1) 6. Pomona-Pitzer (0-0) 7. UW-Platteville (2-2) 

Week 8 WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology

If you have UW-P ranked, Hardin-Simmons is now [1-1] v. RROs.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Region 1 Projected RR: 1. Delaware Valley (2-0) 2. Endicott (0-0) 3. Mass-Dartmouth (1-0) 4. Kings (1-1) 5. Stevenson (1-2) 6. Springfield (0-0) 7. Plymouth State (0-1)
Region 2 Projected RR: 1. Cortland State (2-0) 2. Susquehanna (1-0) 3. Carnegie Mellon (0-0) 4. Ithaca (0-1) 5. Johns Hopkins (0-1) 6. Utica (0-1) 7. Salisbury (0-1)
Region 3 Projected RR: 1. Trinity (TX) (2-0) 2. R-MC (1-0) 3. UMHB (1-1) 4. Huntingdon (1-1) 5. Hardin-Simmons (0-1) 6. Bridgewater (0-1) 7. B-SC (0-2)                                             
Region 4 Projected RR: 1. Mount Union (1-0) 2. Albion (2-0) 3. MSJ (0-0) 4. DePauw (0-0) 5. Alma (1-1) 6. John Carroll (0-1)  7. Trine (0-2)
Region 5 Projected RR: 1. NCC (2-0) 2. Wartburg (0-0) 3. Ripon (1-0) 4. Wheaton (1-2) 5. Aurora (0-0) 6.  Lake Forest (0-1) 7. WASH-U (0-2)   
Region 6 Projected RR:  1. Linfield (1-0) 2. Bethel (2-0) 3. St. John's (1-2) 4. UW-W (2-1) 5. UW-L (0-1) 6. C-M-S (0-0) 7. George Fox (0-1) 

Week 9 WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology

[Ralph Turner]

My 1st four Pool C bids, in no particular order, are JHU, Wheaton, SJU and UW-L.

HSU's SOS (which is #71 at .530 with a 6-1 record) will take a hit versus

-- 1-win Austin College (who also plays HPU in the last week).
-- 2-win Texas Lutheran (who plays 3-win Southwestern this week.)

HSU only has 9 D-3 games this season. The UW-P loss today took away the signature win.

How much love will King's get from the Selection Committee? Last week, their SOS is #75 at .528 and a 7-1 record. They have a quality win over Stevenson.

King's will play 2-win Misericordia and then 6-win Wilkes.
King's is likely to have a better record against regionally ranked teams, a comparable/slightly better SOS in 2 weeks, and more wins against D-3 teams.

[MRMIKESMITH]

My 1st four Pool C bids, in no particular order, are JHU, Wheaton, SJU and UW-L.

HSU's SOS (which is #71 at .530 with a 6-1 record) will take a hit versus

-- 1-win Austin College (who also plays HPU in the last week).
-- 2-win Texas Lutheran (who plays 3-win Southwestern this week.)

HSU only has 9 D-3 games this season. The UW-P loss today took away the signature win.

How much love will King's get from the Selection Committee? Last week, their SOS is #75 at .528 and a 7-1 record. They have a quality win over Stevenson.

King's will play 2-win Misericordia and then 6-win Wilkes.
King's is likely to have a better record against regionally ranked teams, a comparable/slightly better SOS in 2 weeks, and more wins against D-3 teams.

It's a question that's going to be had over the next few weeks into selection Sunday. Hardin-Simmons game against UMHB wasn't as close as we all thought it was and with UW-P having 3 losses to it's worst teams, at this moment, I don't expect them to be regionally ranked. Hardin-Simmons need UW-P to win out, which would IMHO put UW-L in a more precarious position on the board. Also, probably want Redlands to win out, getting C-M-S off the board and George Fox taking another loss, this will allow UW-P to possibly stay on board.

Region 6 is really in shambles in regards to where to rank teams with the WIAC and MIAC teams not having a team that's undefeated, SCIAC best team possibly having one-loss in that of C-M-S or a 5-loss team in that of Redlands. The UMAC best team will have 3 to 4 losses. NWC will probably have Linfield vying for a #1 seed with Trinity (TX) in the travel bracket. The most unfortunate thing is if Hardin-Simmons doesn't make the tournament, UMHB may head to San Antonio as mentioned by Wally on https://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/index, which would be a travesty as two top 5 teams playing in the first round. Hopefully the committee financially can make an exception (probably at the cost of other regions matchups), which is highly unlikely.

If Hardin-Simmons is not selected and Kings or Utica is selected. Someone will have to fly into Huntingdon; a team like MSJ is less than 600 miles. That would move things around, probably creating a tougher matchup for NCC in the 2nd round and possibly sending two R2/R1 teams out to Linfield 2nd round (similar to 2013 and 2015). That's a rabbit hole for another day.

[Ralph Turner]

There is no one near Huntingdon. (MSJ in Cincinnati is 551 miles from Montgomery). I can see Huntingdon being flown to Randy-Mac.

UMHB to Trinity, but by the Regional Rankings, that is a "#4" going to "#2" in the bracketing of the playoffs
SCIAC going to Linfield, which is a #1 vs #8 or a #2 vs #7.

Linfield hosts the UMHB-Trinity winner.

Do you complete that quarterfinal bracket with the RMC-Huntingdon game? Who are the 7th and 8th teams in that bracket?

Hey, only 3 or 4 flights in the first 2 rounds, depending on the RMC-Huntingdon game. That is a nice #4-#5 or a nice "#3-#5" matchup.

(Geographical proximity makes "ideal seeding" difficult in the South and West.)

[MRMIKESMITH]

There is no one near Huntingdon. (MSJ in Cincinnati is 551 miles from Montgomery). I can see Huntingdon being flown to Randy-Mac.

UMHB to Trinity, but by the Regional Rankings, that is a "#4" going to "#2" in the bracketing of the playoffs
SCIAC going to Linfield, which is a #1 vs #8 or a #2 vs #7.

Linfield hosts the UMHB-Trinity winner.

Do you complete that quarterfinal bracket with the RMC-Huntingdon game? Who are the 7th and 8th teams in that bracket?

Hey, only 3 or 4 flights in the first 2 rounds, depending on the RMC-Huntingdon game. That is a nice #4-#5 or a nice "#3-#5" matchup.

(Geographical proximity makes "ideal seeding" difficult in the South and West.)

In 2013, it was Hampden-Sydney/Maryville and 2015 it was Cortland/Salisbury. Both those years, those "7th & 8th" teams were multiple loss conference champs. Looking at R1/R2/R3, you can possibly look to the NJAC Champ and possibly the Cortaga Loser with the Cortaga loser hosting the NJAC Champ going ot Linfield in the 2nd round.

[BSCpanthers]

Birmingham Southern would not have to fly to Huntingdon, easy bus ride for us.  BSC has better losses than getting dirt stumped at home by UMHB. 

[Ralph Turner]

There is no one near Huntingdon. (MSJ in Cincinnati is 551 miles from Montgomery). I can see Huntingdon being flown to Randy-Mac.

UMHB to Trinity, but by the Regional Rankings, that is a "#4" going to "#2" in the bracketing of the playoffs
SCIAC going to Linfield, which is a #1 vs #8 or a #2 vs #7.

Linfield hosts the UMHB-Trinity winner.

Do you complete that quarterfinal bracket with the RMC-Huntingdon game? Who are the 7th and 8th teams in that bracket?

Hey, only 3 or 4 flights in the first 2 rounds, depending on the RMC-Huntingdon game. That is a nice #4-#5 or a nice "#3-#5" matchup.

(Geographical proximity makes "ideal seeding" difficult in the South and West.)

In 2013, it was Hampden-Sydney/Maryville and 2015 it was Cortland/Salisbury. Both those years, those "7th & 8th" teams were multiple loss conference champs. Looking at R1/R2/R3, you can possibly look to the NJAC Champ and possibly the Cortaga Loser with the Cortaga loser hosting the NJAC Champ going ot Linfield in the 2nd round.

+1.
I do like those matchups pitting teams across the Appalachians.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Here are Pool A locking scenarios in week 10 (I assume head to head is the top tiebreaker for everyone)

Region 1
CCC: Endicott win vs Salve Regina
ECFC: Gallaudet win at Alfred St
MAC: Delaware Valley win vs FDU-Florham
MASCAC: Mass-Dartmouth on bye week if Plymouth St loses at Mass Maritime
NEWMAC: No lock in week 10. Springfield-Catholic winner week 11

Region 2
CC: Susquehanna win at Muhlenberg
E8: Cortland already locked
LL: Ithaca win at Union
NJAC: No lock in week 10. Chris Newport-Salisbury winner week 11
PAC: Carnegie Mellon on bye week if CWRU loses at Westminster (PA)

Region 3
ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor win at Howard Payne
ODAC Randolph-Macon win vs Ferrum AND Hampden-Sydney loss at Shenandoah
SAA: Trinity (TX) win at Millsaps
USAC: Huntingdon win at NC Wesleyan

Region 4
HCAC: No lock in week 10.
MIAA: No lock in week 10. Albion-Alma winner week 11
NCAC: No lock in week 10.
OAC: (UMU and JCU each have a scenario to lock) John Carroll win at Mount Union // Mount Union win vs John Carroll AND Baldwin Wallace loss at Heidelberg

Region 5
ARC: Wartburg win vs Simpson AND Coe loss at Nebraska Wesleyan
CCIW: North Central (IL) win at Illinois Wesleyan
MWC: Ripon win at Monmouth
NACC: Aurora win vs Lakeland AND Concordia (WI) loss vs Wisconsin Lutheran

Region 6
MIAC: No lock in week 10. Bethel locked in MIAC title game. St John's in title game with win vs Carleton
NWC: Linfield win vs Willamette
SCIAC: CMS win vs Redlands AND Pomona-Pitzer loss vs Whittier
UMAC: Northwestern win at Crown
WIAC: UW-Whitewater win at UW-Stout AND UW-La Crosse loss vs UW-River Falls AND UW-Platteville loss vs UW-Eau Claire

[tigerguy]

Region 6 is really in shambles in regards to where to rank teams with the WIAC and MIAC teams not having a team that's undefeated, SCIAC best team possibly having one-loss in that of C-M-S or a 5-loss team in that of Redlands. The UMAC best team will have 3 to 4 losses. NWC will probably have Linfield vying for a #1 seed with Trinity (TX) in the travel bracket. The most unfortunate thing is if Hardin-Simmons doesn't make the tournament, UMHB may head to San Antonio as mentioned by Wally on https://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/index, which would be a travesty as two top 5 teams playing in the first round. Hopefully the committee financially can make an exception (probably at the cost of other regions matchups), which is highly unlikely.

I know D3.com ranking has no bearing on playoffs, but I was curious about the highest first round matchups going back to when the poll began in 2003. The following first round matchups occurred between teams ranked #1-12 in the Week 11 D3 poll for the particular year:

2003: Wartburg (4) vs. Bethel (9)
2004: Trinity (7) vs. UMHB (8)
2005: Linfield (1) vs. Occidental (6); UMHB (4) vs. Trinity (8)
2006: UMHB (5) vs. Hardin Simmons (6); Whitworth (8) vs. Occidental (10);
          Central (9) vs. St. Johns (12)
2007: UMHB (4) vs. Trinity (11)
2008: UMHB (5) vs. Hardin Simmons (8)
2009: Monmouth (8) vs. St. Thomas (10); Central (6) vs. UMHB (7)
2010: Ohio Northen (7) vs. Wittenburg (9)
2011: Linfield (5) vs. Cal Lutheran (8)
2016: Linfield (8) vs. Hardin Simmons (11); St. Johns (9) vs. UW Plattville (12)
2017: St. Johns (6) vs. North Central (8); Hardin Simmons (5) vs. Linfield (8)
2018: (UMHB (2) vs. Hardin Simmons (7)

2005 and 2006 were absolutely egregious first round matchups for top 12 teams, sheesh. What is clear is that the common scenario where this issue manifests itself is when there are 3-4 power teams in Texas/the west, although it happens for other regions occasionally. Trinity reemerging as a football power certainly spells bad news for first round playoff matchups for the next few years, especially if Linfield/Hardin Simmons also stay dominant. 

[SW1]

Happens way too often for the teams from Texas and the Island teams. They could always let them fly somewhere and if both teams win it would be a bus ride second round and not a flight. Same matchups every year but imagination with matchups isn't their strong suit. Sad as it is, in the end you have to beat the team they put in front of ya. Anyone ever researched which team had the easiest path to the Walnut and Bronze? Which team played the least ranked or lowest ranked teams before the championship?

[HSUCowboy2015]

Birmingham Southern would not have to fly to Huntingdon, easy bus ride for us.  BSC has better losses than getting dirt stumped at home by UMHB.

The score does not reflect how the game was played. I know that is easy to say, but that game was back and forth until the three scores by UMHB in a span of a little over a minute of game time in the first half. Then HSU had to become one dimensional which you can't be against an UMHB defense. And with all due respect didn't UMHB "dirt stump" BSC to the tune of 42-7 last year? I know it's a different year, but come on man. 

[BSCpanthers]

Birmingham Southern would not have to fly to Huntingdon, easy bus ride for us.  BSC has better losses than getting dirt stumped at home by UMHB.

The score does not reflect how the game was played. I know that is easy to say, but that game was back and forth until the three scores by UMHB in a span of a little over a minute of game time in the first half. Then HSU had to become one dimensional which you can't be against an UMHB defense. And with all due respect didn't UMHB "dirt stump" BSC to the tune of 42-7 last year? I know it's a different year, but come on man.

So your argument is there are faults in your argument??? 

BSC lost by 3, in the final seconds at Trinity, Hardin Simmons lost by 5 scores at home to UMHB.  You are telling me you should get credit for keeping it close with UMHB for most of the first half.......that's a weak argument and you know it. 

[crufootball]

Birmingham Southern would not have to fly to Huntingdon, easy bus ride for us.  BSC has better losses than getting dirt stumped at home by UMHB.

The score does not reflect how the game was played. I know that is easy to say, but that game was back and forth until the three scores by UMHB in a span of a little over a minute of game time in the first half. Then HSU had to become one dimensional which you can't be against an UMHB defense. And with all due respect didn't UMHB "dirt stump" BSC to the tune of 42-7 last year? I know it's a different year, but come on man.

So your argument is there are faults in your argument??? 

BSC lost by 3, in the final seconds at Trinity, Hardin Simmons lost by 5 scores at home to UMHB.  You are telling me you should get credit for keeping it close with UMHB for most of the first half.......that's a weak argument and you know it.

Better loses are also a weak argument that HSU has had to use in the past as well. At this point neither HSU or BSC can point to a big victory, BSC will have a 14 point win over most likely 7-3 Berry and HSU will have a 9 point win over most likely 7-3 HPU. They do have a common opponent that HSU beat by 32 and BSC beat by 17 but BSC will probably have 2 RRO loses and HSU will probably only have 1.

All that to say both will have similar amounts of hope come Selection Sunday.