Selection Monday Pool C training exercise

[PaulNewman]

Training exercise for selection Monday...

Pick 4 out of the 8 below to get Pool Cs (overall record, projected SoS estimate, and RvR projected).  Not necessarily looking for responses but wanted to give an idea of scenarios the official selection crew could be looking at.  Will affix names of teams to each in a few hours (and these won't exact because they are estimated based on teams maybe winning another game and then losing one, and there might be minor differences in SoS and RvR once all that is updated after this coming weekend.

Team 1)  11-5-1   .615    3-4-1

Team 2)  9-5-2    .660     4-4-2

Team 3)  17-2-1  .560     2-2

Team 4)  10-4-3   .620    2-3-2

Team 5)  12-4-3   .585    3-3

Team 6)  11-5-3   .640    4-4-2

Team 7)   13-4-2  .570    3-2

Team 8)  12-5-2   .620    3-3-2

[Ejay]

I'll take:
1
3
7
8

[jknezek]

1
3
6
8

[PaulNewman]

Training exercise for selection Monday...

Pick 4 out of the 8 below to get Pool Cs (overall record, projected SoS estimate, and RvR projected).  Not necessarily looking for responses but wanted to give an idea of scenarios the official selection crew could be looking at.  Will affix names of teams to each in a few hours (and these won't exact because they are estimated based on teams maybe winning another game and then losing one, and there might be minor differences in SoS and RvR once all that is updated after this coming weekend.

Team 1)  11-5-1   .615    3-4-1        Washington College

Team 2)  9-5-2    .660     4-4-2        Christopher Newport

Team 3)  17-2-1  .560     2-2            North Central

Team 4)  10-4-3   .620    2-3-2         Middlebury

Team 5)  12-4-3   .585    3-3            Hope

Team 6)  11-5-3   .640    4-4-2         WPI

Team 7)   13-4-2  .570    3-2            Vassar

Team 8)  12-5-2   .620    3-3-2         Gettysburg

OK, that's good.  Feels like it's been a few hours.  My Dad told me (in the 1970s) that instant gratification was a problem for me.  Teams noted above (reminder not exact and figures include guesses on outcomes this week).

[PaulNewman]

I will say that the SoSs for a large number of teams seem unusually high this year (like well beyond the expected UAAs, NESCACs, and some others who usually do well).  Of course Kenyon's isn't better than usual although hopefully they'll get a bump if they can sneak by Wabash tomorrow and OWU beats Denison.

Anyway, there are a slew of teams with good to high SoS, at least 2-3 ranked wins, and 6 to 9 blemishes.  Like I hadn't thought of ONU being in contention for a Pool C but they could end up 12-7-3 with .610 or so SoS and RvR around 4-3-3 (would have to beat JCU if beat Marietta and then lose or lose in PKs in the OAC final).  And Carthage even after their meltdown is 12-6-2 with around .585 and 3-5 RvR.  Don't think that will be good enough this year and probably won't be regionally ranked high enough but not impossible.

[deiscanton]

Not a bad list of teams, but I have some suggestions....

(1)  There are 10 evaluation regions this season, and one team from each evaluation region will always be on the national table for the DIII Men's Soccer Committee to choose the next Pool C pick until all 21 Pool C teams are selected.  Therefore, the list should have consisted of 10 teams.

(2) Your list had no teams on the table from evaluation Regions IV, VII, IX, and X.  In addition, you had 2 teams from evaluation Regions V and VIII on the list for consideration at the same time.  In reality, that would not be the case, as the Regional Advisory Committees would have ranked those teams for order of progression to the national selection table before the national committee would make their picks.  For example, Hope and North Central would not be on the national table for Pool C at the same time.  Neither would Gettysburg and Washington College.

(3)  Names aside, each team on your list had OWPs that were ranked among the top 110 teams in DIII as of the games ending October 27, with the highest being ranked #2 in OWP, and the lowest ranked at #101.  That does mean that their SOSs would have been very strong and not enough at first glance to instantly disqualify any of these candidates, assuming that these candidates were at or near the top of each evaluation region, which is obviously not the case when looking at the Week 2 rankings.   The teams get a new re-ranking today, with the teams listed today being considered ranked for selection purposes.

(4)  I would need to look at the schedules of each of those teams to (a) evaluate if any of these teams played head to head vs each other, (b) if any of these teams had results vs DIII common opponents with another team on the list, and (c) what the nature of the team's results vs DIII ranked teams were.   This is in addition to the DIII winning percentage and SOS.

(5)  Non-conference SOS's are used as a secondary critieria on the national selection stage, because the SOS's of 2 teams on primary criteria are sometimes very similar to each other.

(6)  On secondary criteria, results vs non-DIII common opponents can be used, as well as overall winning percentage and SOS if the team under consideration played a team outside of DIII, but that rarely if ever happens. 

[PaulNewman]

I knew I was rushing the product to market without additional research in the field.  Foiled again by @deiscanton!

Or was I?

The product was intended to raise all of the issues you so adroitly described...teaching most common errors among new fans.  And you also have confused errors with intended product features.  For instance, you'll notice that two of our most esteemed posters @Ejay and @jknezek picked #3 North Central while neither picked #5 Hope.  Very, very instructive, as I think you would agree, because as you rightly underscore, as things stand currently (which of course could change today or next week...a disclaimer included in the product release), North Central can't get to the table until Hope is selected. 

Perhaps you will now understand why d3soccer.com has sent me to New London this weekend to do PbP with color man Mr.Right, and why we'll be staying at a Hyatt Place with unlimited meals and drinks at Longhorn Steakhouse....while you have been dispatched solo to Purchase, NY and will be staying 14 miles away at the Sleepy Head Roadside Cottages over the border in West Chickahominy, CT with a coupon for buy one, get one free on Egg McMuffins.  Enjoy the 3G WIFI, my friend!

[deiscanton]

I knew I was rushing the product to market without additional research in the field.  Foiled again by @deiscanton!

Or was I?

The product was intended to raise all of the issues you so adroitly described...teaching most common errors among new fans.  And you also have confused errors with intended product features.  For instance, you'll notice that two of our most esteemed posters @Ejay and @jknezek picked #3 North Central while neither picked #5 Hope.  Very, very instructive, as I think you would agree, because as you rightly underscore, as things stand currently (which of course could change today or next week...a disclaimer included in the product release), North Central can't get to the table until Hope is selected. 

Perhaps you will now understand why d3soccer.com has sent me to New London this weekend to do PbP with color man Mr.Right, and why we'll be staying at a Hyatt Place with unlimited meals and drinks at Longhorn Steakhouse....while you have been dispatched solo to Purchase, NY and will be staying 14 miles away at the Sleepy Head Roadside Cottages over the border in West Chickahominy, CT with a coupon for buy one, get one free on Egg McMuffins.  Enjoy the 3G WIFI, my friend!

I usually stay at Motel 6 (or Days Inn, Econo Lodge, Howard Johnson, etc) due to my budget whenever I travel anyway (which was before the pandemic) and I have to pay out of my own pocket for a room, but I have 4G LTE on my smartphone.....  However, I did sleep on a twin bed in a flophouse hostel in the Bowery near NYU some years back when I attended some Brandeis basketball road games at the old Coles Center(NYU) at 181 Mercer Street....

Yeah, I know that your tool was designed to raise issues for new people and people used to the DIII selection process to discuss.  No worries!

[PaulNewman]

@deiscanton...Join us...I got you.

https://www.longhornsteakhouse.com/locations/ct/waterford/waterford/5334?cmpid=br:lh_ag:ie_ch:loc_ca:LHBINGPLACES_sn:bingplaces_gt:waterford-ct-5334_pl:locurl_rd:1281

I recommend the white cheddar stuffed mushrooms, the 9 oz Flo's Filet or 18 oz Fire-grilled T-bone, and the chocolate stampede or strawberries & cream shortcake.

[deiscanton]

@deiscanton...Join us...I got you.

https://www.longhornsteakhouse.com/locations/ct/waterford/waterford/5334?cmpid=br:lh_ag:ie_ch:loc_ca:LHBINGPLACES_sn:bingplaces_gt:waterford-ct-5334_pl:locurl_rd:1281

I recommend the white cheddar stuffed mushrooms, the 9 oz Flo's Filet or 18 oz Fire-grilled T-bone, and the chocolate stampede or strawberries & cream shortcake.

I actually thought that NSN (Northeast Sports Network) did the streaming for the NESCAC men's and women's soccer tournaments.  PaulNewman, do you have a contract with NSN with Mr. Right for this weekend?     Actually, there is UAA action on Saturday on streaming video and I would prefer to stay home and watch.  Also, I have ordered delivery from the 99 Restaurants in the past, and I do like Texas Roadhouse for steak as well.  I have eaten at Longhorn when they had a restaurant in Boston, but I have not been to their Mansfield, MA location, which is the closest....

[lastguyoffthebench]

1
2
4
6


POOL C is already filling up quick. 

Amherst, W&L, Montclair St, Ohio Wesleyan
Three NESCAC (likely)
Washington/Chicago/NYU/Emory - Washington could finish as low as 4th with a loss to Chicago.  Remaining 3 are locks)
Two Centennial (likely)
Otterbein (I believe JC had tie-breaker, but even so, JC would be a lock as well).
WPI

Going to be rough for the last 4 in

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Another reminder ... a committee picks a team, then that team is replaced in it's region by another before another team is selected.

No chance multiple teams would be picked based on those resumes without others entering the conversation that could change selections dramatically. It is NOT unheard of to see multiple teams from one region get selected before another region gets a selection.

Once one team is selected, the replacement is put "at the table" and the process starts all over.

[susanc]

1
2
4
6


POOL C is already filling up quick. 

Amherst, W&L, Montclair St, Ohio Wesleyan
Three NESCAC (likely)
Washington/Chicago/NYU/Emory - Washington could finish as low as 4th with a loss to Chicago.  Remaining 3 are locks)
Two Centennial (likely)
Otterbein (I believe JC had tie-breaker, but even so, JC would be a lock as well).
WPI

Going to be rough for the last 4 in

St Olaf will get a Pool C bid. They lost MIAC conference tournament final but were #1 Region IX.