2021 NCAA Tournament

[Buck O.]

Can we just put Tufts in the Final Four, already.  What a draw, unless Montclair can get to the Tufts game, show up for real, and keep their cool for 90 minutes.

Based on their 2018 performance when they were 3-0 down inside 20 minutes and 4-0 down inside 35, that doesn't seem like smart money, lol.

Yeah, I think you and I were at that game, and one thing MSU definitely did not do was to keep their cool for 90 minutes, or even 19 minutes.

[PaulNewman]

Swat of course might not get by Stevens, but if so would be two Shin brothers going against each other.

And how did the Centennial get 5 teams?  Is the Centennial the new NESCAC or UAA?  NESCAC couldn't even get 5. 

Btw, CSO, congrats on Midd getting in.  Feel really bad for Wesleyan but both were deserving especially that too many from conference isn't capped.

[College Soccer Observer]

Thanks.  Will be in attendance at F & M this weekend. Anxious to see some different teams.

[PaulNewman]

Thanks.  Will be in attendance at F & M this weekend. Anxious to see some different teams.

That made me look at Midd's draw.  I gonna call it right now.  Middlebury is going to the Final 4....at least Elite 8.  Nobody they can't beat in that whole quadrant.  If they can get by Oneonta I think they'll beat F&M, and probably fairly easily.  And then maybe a mirror image like John Carroll that is beatable, and even if Amherst is still standing Midd knows it can beat Amherst on the day.

[Ron Boerger]

Also can't believe if form holds the cmte is again sending Trinity to Boston, New London, NYC, or an island off the coast of Maine in the Bay of Labrador.  Brutal.

Well, that's pretty typical for the NCAA.  At least the Trinity men get to hold a first/second round playoff round; their women's volleyball team, ranked #2 in the country, 30-2, 11-2 vs. RROs, 0.621 SOS got shunted off to New Jersey where the hosts are unranked, 26-5, 8-5 vs RROs, .566 SOS. 

[d4_Pace]

That does stink and is definitely unfair. But on the other hand nothing was more fun than those road trip weekends

[PaulNewman]

Also can't believe if form holds the cmte is again sending Trinity to Boston, New London, NYC, or an island off the coast of Maine in the Bay of Labrador.  Brutal.

Well, that's pretty typical for the NCAA.  At least the Trinity men get to hold a first/second round playoff round; their women's volleyball team, ranked #2 in the country, 30-2, 11-2 vs. RROs, 0.621 SOS got shunted off to New Jersey where the hosts are unranked, 26-5, 8-5 vs RROs, .566 SOS.

I assume the answer is yes, but have Trinity and other West region schools complained about this?  Totally impact RvR too.  I know some teams will come East for 2 games but that doesn't guarantee anything and costs a lot of money.  I remember being surprised when state school UMass-Boston went to the West Coast.  We always hear the money aspect, but the NCAA has tons and tons of money.

[PaulNewman]

That does stink and is definitely unfair. But on the other hand nothing was more fun than those road trip weekends

It is actually is unfair.  Within the past 10 posts we've seen a defense of Tufts hosting which they deserve.  But you don't see people saying Trinity fully deserves to host.

[Ron Boerger]

@PN, it's all about money.  West coast/Texas/isolated schools have dealt with this for decades.  If you put something in TX or the WC after the first couple of rounds everyone but the host has to fly.  That costs big $ and travel dollars are a primary factor when putting the brackets and especially deciding who hosts.  NCAA Div III only has so much money to spend, unfortunately. 

[PaulNewman]

@PN, it's all about money.  West coast/Texas/isolated schools have dealt with this for decades.  If you put something in TX or the WC after the first couple of rounds everyone but the host has to fly.  That costs big $ and travel dollars are a primary factor when putting the brackets and especially deciding who hosts.  NCAA Div III only has so much money to spend, unfortunately.

Yeah, I know that's the reason.  But are you endorsing that D3 shouldn't get more money?  And/or that the NCAA doesn't have the money? 

At this point, I'm sure every other year or every third year would be appreciated.

[Mr.Right]

Thanks.  Will be in attendance at F & M this weekend. Anxious to see some different teams.

That made me look at Midd's draw.  I gonna call it right now.  Middlebury is going to the Final 4....at least Elite 8.  Nobody they can't beat in that whole quadrant.  If they can get by Oneonta I think they'll beat F&M, and probably fairly easily.  And then maybe a mirror image like John Carroll that is beatable, and even if Amherst is still standing Midd knows it can beat Amherst on the day.

It will be difficult for Middlebury. I am betting if Oneonta is not as strong as years past they will sit in a bit. F&M we have heard from SimpleCoach has no problem sitting in, blasting and pressing and it is their field. If Midd continues to struggle scoring goals they will get ousted. However, you are correct they have the talent to get out of the weekend and progress from there. Still that has not happened in over a decade so they will need to be ready to play and focused on the game. The D4PACEMAKER is correct as it is really fun for the players to be together on the road and for some teams the bonding helps the play on the field. Still you always would want to play on your Home Field in front of your supporters. Lastly, do not sleep on SUNY POLY as I caught like 10-15 minutes this weekend and they have a couple good players.

[maineman]

Thanks.  Will be in attendance at F & M this weekend. Anxious to see some different teams.

That made me look at Midd's draw.  I gonna call it right now.  Middlebury is going to the Final 4....at least Elite 8.  Nobody they can't beat in that whole quadrant.  If they can get by Oneonta I think they'll beat F&M, and probably fairly easily.  And then maybe a mirror image like John Carroll that is beatable, and even if Amherst is still standing Midd knows it can beat Amherst on the day.

It will be difficult for Middlebury. I am betting if Oneonta is not as strong as years past they will sit in a bit. F&M we have heard from SimpleCoach has no problem sitting in, blasting and pressing and it is their field. If Midd continues to struggle scoring goals they will get ousted. However, you are correct they have the talent to get out of the weekend and progress from there. Still that has not happened in over a decade so they will need to be ready to play and focused on the game. The D4PACEMAKER is correct as it is really fun for the players to be together on the road and for some teams the bonding helps the play on the field. Still you always would want to play on your Home Field in front of your supporters. Lastly, do not sleep on SUNY POLY as I caught like 10-15 minutes this weekend and they have a couple good players.

The unfortunate blueprint for Midd over the past several years has been to give up an early and sometimes soft goal and then having to work all game towards an equalizer.  If successful, Midd has then surrendered a go ahead goal soon after.  The result has been an early exit.  If Midd can score first, I like their chances.  I would also favor them in PK situations.

[Ron Boerger]

@PN, it's all about money.  West coast/Texas/isolated schools have dealt with this for decades.  If you put something in TX or the WC after the first couple of rounds everyone but the host has to fly.  That costs big $ and travel dollars are a primary factor when putting the brackets and especially deciding who hosts.  NCAA Div III only has so much money to spend, unfortunately.

Yeah, I know that's the reason.  But are you endorsing that D3 shouldn't get more money?  And/or that the NCAA doesn't have the money? 

At this point, I'm sure every other year or every third year would be appreciated.

The NCAA allocates 3.18% of its revenue to D3, and the newly proposed constitution released yesterday further codifies that amount.  Would I like more money to be allocated?  Would the D3 membership?  Of course.  But with the turmoil in D1, where all the money comes from, the chances of any increase is about the same as my employer offering to double my salary tomorrow. 

As far as the "make it fair instead of focused primarily on travel dollar" once every few years, that would be wonderful, but it would have to be (a) proposed by one or more conferences and (b) approved by the entire Division III membership, and I can't see the majority of conferences who actually benefit from the current policy (by getting more hosting bids than they have earned) signing off on such a proposal.   And any such proposal would have to come with a way to pay for itself since the total dollars available aren't going to change. 

I'm afraid that once the current contract for D1 men's March Madness expires that the Power Five conferences are going to decide it's time to take their ball and run, removing most of the NCAA's current revenue stream.  These may end up being the glory days (64 teams?  Travel and other expenses paid for?) we look fondly upon, warts and all. 

[College Soccer Observer]

Thanks.  Will be in attendance at F & M this weekend. Anxious to see some different teams.

That made me look at Midd's draw.  I gonna call it right now.  Middlebury is going to the Final 4....at least Elite 8.  Nobody they can't beat in that whole quadrant.  If they can get by Oneonta I think they'll beat F&M, and probably fairly easily.  And then maybe a mirror image like John Carroll that is beatable, and even if Amherst is still standing Midd knows it can beat Amherst on the day.

It will be difficult for Middlebury. I am betting if Oneonta is not as strong as years past they will sit in a bit. F&M we have heard from SimpleCoach has no problem sitting in, blasting and pressing and it is their field. If Midd continues to struggle scoring goals they will get ousted. However, you are correct they have the talent to get out of the weekend and progress from there. Still that has not happened in over a decade so they will need to be ready to play and focused on the game. The D4PACEMAKER is correct as it is really fun for the players to be together on the road and for some teams the bonding helps the play on the field. Still you always would want to play on your Home Field in front of your supporters. Lastly, do not sleep on SUNY POLY as I caught like 10-15 minutes this weekend and they have a couple good players.

The unfortunate blueprint for Midd over the past several years has been to give up an early and sometimes soft goal and then having to work all game towards an equalizer.  If successful, Midd has then surrendered a go ahead goal soon after.  The result has been an early exit.  If Midd can score first, I like their chances.  I would also favor them in PK situations.

My analysis of games in 2019 and 2021 in which Midd has given up goals:
2019
Conn (W 2-1)  Went ahead early, gave up an equalizer, won on pk in OT
Amherst (T 1-1) Went ahead early, gave up an equalizer in 2nd half with GK having man of the match performance with 10 saves
Bates (L 0-1) Gave up goal in 37th
Colby (T 1-1) Went up 1-0, tying goal in 19th min
Tufts (L 1-2) Went up 1-0, tying goal in 79th, winning goal in OT.  Midd GK with some spectacular saves including a PK save
Williams (T 1-1) Went behind in 55th and tied game in 64th
Tufts (L 1-2) Went behind in 58th, tied game in 78th, gave up go ahead goal in 88th. Another game that was dominated by Tufts
2021
Wesleyan (W 3-1) gave up a goal in 2nd minute, equalized less than 30 seconds later, took the lead in 35th, added insurance goal in 90th
Conn (L 0-1) PK goal in 86th min
Amherst (L 0-1) conceded in 22nd
Colby (L 1-2) Went ahead in 27th, wasted numerous chances to build on lead, conceded in 62nd, game winner of an indirect free kick in the penalty area in 73rd
Keene State (W 3-1).  Went ahead, gave up equalizer in 47th, retook lead in 50th, insurance tally in 81st
Tufts (L 0-1) Gave up goal in 36th

Takeaways:

Playing from behind is indeed difficult for Midd, as they have no come from behind victories besides Wes this year and a tie from a losing position vs Williams in 2019.  I would quibble with the characterization of giving up soft goals.  This team has allowed only 7 goals in 17 games in 2021, one on a PK and one on an IFK in the box from dead center. In 2019 they gave up 11 goals in 20 games.  As a fan, the big differences has been in the quality of the performances.  In both games vs Tufts in 2021, Midd was on the front foot for long stretches.  That was never the case in 2019, when it felt like they were trying to hang on and steal a goal on a counter.  They have had some excellent opportunities, but have been thwarted by excellent goal keeping (see Lauta last week, Devanny in NESCAC quarters) or some bad luck (Sloan's shot striking the crossbar and bouncing straight down and out) Would love to see xG for Midd games.  My hunch is that they have underperformed their xG.

Midd has strong D and goalkeeping, and they are not prolific offensively.  As a result, they are in every game. 

One other stat:  Midd on grass this year (2-3-1 losses @Conn, @Colby, vs Tufts @Conn) Midd on turf this year (8-1-2)  This weekend's games are on turf.

[LetteroftheLaw]

I speculate the Messiah boys are anxious and gnawing at the bit to have the chance to compete so early in the tournament. Especially against the quality side that Kenyon is. First round is the focus though, can't start looking ahead which is the cool part about the tournament. Take it one game at a time.

Alright, I've resisted but I'm going to go out and call the upset of the first round is Catholic over Kenyon (I'm biased).
Of course there is at least a little logic behind this thought and not just total bias; Catholic is playing their best soccer of the season and Kenyon could easily overlook them with the thought of a show down with Messiah on Sunday. Catholic breezed through their conference playoffs albeit not against the best competition but they had 6 GF and 0 GA. They also scored two set piece goals off corners in the final which is all it could take to pull the upset against Kenyon. They also have a core of players who have been to the tournament before (another brutal draw with JHU and Conn College back in 2019) so that experience never hurts. I've said it before but their center backs are the weakest part of their team - they tend to be pretty careless on the ball - so I am definitely concerned that they will be exposed, however if they can just keep it simple in the back they might have a chance.