2021 NCAA Tournament

[Mr.Right]

2021 ECAC Regional

https://ecacsports.com/news/2021/11/8/ecac-announces-2021-diii-mens-soccer-championship-field.aspx

[maineman]

Thanks.  Will be in attendance at F & M this weekend. Anxious to see some different teams.

That made me look at Midd's draw.  I gonna call it right now.  Middlebury is going to the Final 4....at least Elite 8.  Nobody they can't beat in that whole quadrant.  If they can get by Oneonta I think they'll beat F&M, and probably fairly easily.  And then maybe a mirror image like John Carroll that is beatable, and even if Amherst is still standing Midd knows it can beat Amherst on the day.

It will be difficult for Middlebury. I am betting if Oneonta is not as strong as years past they will sit in a bit. F&M we have heard from SimpleCoach has no problem sitting in, blasting and pressing and it is their field. If Midd continues to struggle scoring goals they will get ousted. However, you are correct they have the talent to get out of the weekend and progress from there. Still that has not happened in over a decade so they will need to be ready to play and focused on the game. The D4PACEMAKER is correct as it is really fun for the players to be together on the road and for some teams the bonding helps the play on the field. Still you always would want to play on your Home Field in front of your supporters. Lastly, do not sleep on SUNY POLY as I caught like 10-15 minutes this weekend and they have a couple good players.

The unfortunate blueprint for Midd over the past several years has been to give up an early and sometimes soft goal and then having to work all game towards an equalizer.  If successful, Midd has then surrendered a go ahead goal soon after.  The result has been an early exit.  If Midd can score first, I like their chances.  I would also favor them in PK situations.

My analysis of games in 2019 and 2021 in which Midd has given up goals:
2019
Conn (W 2-1)  Went ahead early, gave up an equalizer, won on pk in OT
Amherst (T 1-1) Went ahead early, gave up an equalizer in 2nd half with GK having man of the match performance with 10 saves
Bates (L 0-1) Gave up goal in 37th
Colby (T 1-1) Went up 1-0, tying goal in 19th min
Tufts (L 1-2) Went up 1-0, tying goal in 79th, winning goal in OT.  Midd GK with some spectacular saves including a PK save
Williams (T 1-1) Went behind in 55th and tied game in 64th
Tufts (L 1-2) Went behind in 58th, tied game in 78th, gave up go ahead goal in 88th. Another game that was dominated by Tufts
2021
Wesleyan (W 3-1) gave up a goal in 2nd minute, equalized less than 30 seconds later, took the lead in 35th, added insurance goal in 90th
Conn (L 0-1) PK goal in 86th min
Amherst (L 0-1) conceded in 22nd
Colby (L 1-2) Went ahead in 27th, wasted numerous chances to build on lead, conceded in 62nd, game winner of an indirect free kick in the penalty area in 73rd
Keene State (W 3-1).  Went ahead, gave up equalizer in 47th, retook lead in 50th, insurance tally in 81st
Tufts (L 0-1) Gave up goal in 36th

Takeaways:

Playing from behind is indeed difficult for Midd, as they have no come from behind victories besides Wes this year and a tie from a losing position vs Williams in 2019.  I would quibble with the characterization of giving up soft goals.  This team has allowed only 7 goals in 17 games in 2021, one on a PK and one on an IFK in the box from dead center. In 2019 they gave up 11 goals in 20 games.  As a fan, the big differences has been in the quality of the performances.  In both games vs Tufts in 2021, Midd was on the front foot for long stretches.  That was never the case in 2019, when it felt like they were trying to hang on and steal a goal on a counter.  They have had some excellent opportunities, but have been thwarted by excellent goal keeping (see Lauta last week, Devanny in NESCAC quarters) or some bad luck (Sloan's shot striking the crossbar and bouncing straight down and out) Would love to see xG for Midd games.  My hunch is that they have underperformed their xG.

Midd has strong D and goalkeeping, and they are not prolific offensively.  As a result, they are in every game. 

One other stat:  Midd on grass this year (2-3-1 losses @Conn, @Colby, vs Tufts @Conn) Midd on turf this year (8-1-2)  This weekend's games are on turf.

Good point Observer, the turf should help Midd.  Also, looking at size, Midd would appear to have a height advantage which should help them with 50-50 balls.

[Centennial1]

2021 ECAC Regional

https://ecacsports.com/news/2021/11/8/ecac-announces-2021-diii-mens-soccer-championship-field.aspx

Thanks for posting, and pursuant to what Ron B. said above about the state of the NCAA and their future revenue risk, organizations like the ECAC may become more relavent if D3 travel funds become even more scarce. In terms of major sporting organizations, the NCAA competes with the NFL for the honor of being my least favorite.

The big questions going forward: is there anybody less lazy than me that would set up a bracketology for the forum? I don't have the time to administer a contest, but I'd donate a $50 gift card of some sort to the winner. Any takers?

[jknezek]

2021 ECAC Regional

https://ecacsports.com/news/2021/11/8/ecac-announces-2021-diii-mens-soccer-championship-field.aspx

Thanks for posting, and pursuant to what Ron B. said above about the state of the NCAA and their future revenue risk, organizations like the ECAC may become more relavent if D3 travel funds become even more scarce. In terms of major sporting organizations, the NCAA competes with the NFL for the honor of being my least favorite.

The big questions going forward: is there anybody less lazy than me that would set up a bracketology for the forum? I don't have the time to administer a contest, but I'd donate a $50 gift card of some sort to the winner. Any takers?

Having run a few of these in the past for my office at March Madness... you ought to donate the gift card to the poor fool who offers to run it! There is probably some software out there that makes it easier, but then you need everyone to use the software. I volunteered 3x, never again...

[Centennial1]

2021 ECAC Regional

https://ecacsports.com/news/2021/11/8/ecac-announces-2021-diii-mens-soccer-championship-field.aspx

Thanks for posting, and pursuant to what Ron B. said above about the state of the NCAA and their future revenue risk, organizations like the ECAC may become more relavent if D3 travel funds become even more scarce. In terms of major sporting organizations, the NCAA competes with the NFL for the honor of being my least favorite.

The big questions going forward: is there anybody less lazy than me that would set up a bracketology for the forum? I don't have the time to administer a contest, but I'd donate a $50 gift card of some sort to the winner. Any takers?

Having run a few of these in the past for my office at March Madness... you ought to donate the gift card to the poor fool who offers to run it! There is probably some software out there that makes it easier, but then you need everyone to use the software. I volunteered 3x, never again...

Haha. That's a better suggestion, and I'll take your advice and offer it to the poor fool *brilliant public servant* who offers to run it!

[Gregory Sager]

2021 ECAC Regional

https://ecacsports.com/news/2021/11/8/ecac-announces-2021-diii-mens-soccer-championship-field.aspx

Thanks for posting, and pursuant to what Ron B. said above about the state of the NCAA and their future revenue risk, organizations like the ECAC may become more relavent if D3 travel funds become even more scarce.

Unfortunately, there are no other organizations like the ECAC, and the ECAC is relevant only for the northeastern part of the country. In the midwest, south, and far west, once your season's done, it's done ... unless you make the D3 tourney.

The only exceptions are in football, where this season two conferences (the CCIW and the WIAC) will begin holding an annual post-season bowl game, the Culver's Isthmus Bowl, for the highest-finishing team in each league that didn't make the D3 playoffs; and, for the five (soon to be six) schools that are dual members of NCAA D3 and the NCCAA, the annual NCCAA national tournaments in various sports.

In terms of major sporting organizations, the NCAA competes with the NFL for the honor of being my least favorite.

Amen to that.

[PaulNewman]

I speculate the Messiah boys are anxious and gnawing at the bit to have the chance to compete so early in the tournament. Especially against the quality side that Kenyon is. First round is the focus though, can't start looking ahead which is the cool part about the tournament. Take it one game at a time.

Alright, I've resisted but I'm going to go out and call the upset of the first round is Catholic over Kenyon (I'm biased).
Of course there is at least a little logic behind this thought and not just total bias; Catholic is playing their best soccer of the season and Kenyon could easily overlook them with the thought of a show down with Messiah on Sunday. Catholic breezed through their conference playoffs albeit not against the best competition but they had 6 GF and 0 GA. They also scored two set piece goals off corners in the final which is all it could take to pull the upset against Kenyon. They also have a core of players who have been to the tournament before (another brutal draw with JHU and Conn College back in 2019) so that experience never hurts. I've said it before but their center backs are the weakest part of their team - they tend to be pretty careless on the ball - so I am definitely concerned that they will be exposed, however if they can just keep it simple in the back they might have a chance.

Very fair take, and I will be coming back to this one, but for now I'll just say that your reasoning is sound with the caveat that your narrative would be even stronger if Kenyon had won the NCAC tournament.  I have no idea if they will or not and thoughts of Messiah are certainly seductive, but after Kenyon's failure Saturday which was inexcusable the Lords should come out on fire.  But if Catholic can weather the first 30 minutes without conceding and better yet can get one on the counter and/or a set piece, then you may be in business.

[WLCALUM83]

Anyone care to give their take on how far Dominican might go in this tournament?

[PaulNewman]

PN's MRI Scan of the 2021 bracket...

I think I'm going to do these in quadrants...and why not stick with my favorite topic, Tufts, and the Tufts bracket?

I already complained about the Tufts draw, so this may seem counter-intuitive, but if you're gonna pick off the Jumbos do it early and when not expected.  Following this logic, I'd give Montclair a better chance in the Sweet 16 round as opposed to the Elite 8.  But earlier than that would be even better.  The Swat/Stevens winner may have as good a chance as anyone thereafter...catching Tufts while they're all still basking in their NESCAC title and worrying about how they'll get their second and third cousins tickets and lodging for Greensboro.

Montclair is likely to be picked by many for an upset, but they're at home so I see them surviving although a match with red-hot Wash College would be interesting.  However, SLU also is hot and feeling all pumped up after a drought, and SLU-Wash Coll feels like more of a pick'em game.  I just think that either way Montclair has too much firepower to lose at home during the opening weekend. 

I misread what our Trinity friend wrote...that at least Trinity was getting to host a pod.  Not true.  They're heading to Washington state, and if the Tigers survive (or whoever survives) will be trekking all the way to the other coast.  I'm not sure Trinity comes out of that pod, and not because they are chronically overrated as some have alleged.  Pac Lutheran is a legit, tough 1st round game.  The Lutes had a minute in the sunshine about 6-7 weeks ago but again became an afterthought following a couple of setbacks.  Redlands always is pretty good and iirc correctly was in the Elite 8 a few years ago and nearly beat Chicago or St Thomas (MN), but I could be off a little on that.  i know nothing about Concordia (TX), other than they are like one of 10 Concordias across the country, and I'm not going to try to learn more now, or at least until they barge into the Sweet 16.

At the bottom of the quadrant Conn Coll has a ton of momentum despite the Tufts loss (and are the only team to beat Tufts this year), and they have home field where apparently their support has been palpable.  The St Joe's-NYU game will be a popular upset pick, and NYU has been reeling here towards the end of the season.  My sense is that St Joe's isn't quite as strong as in recent years past, but still, this one could go either way.  I think Conn has too much to get knocked out by St Joe's and I like Conn against NYU as well. 

Once at the Sweet 16 level, presumably at Tufts, I have to think Montclair would fare better than the game they've been pummeled about, and as I said, I like Montclair a little more here with Tufts than the Elite 8.  Still think Tufts will prevail but the Jumbos will have take Montclair seriously and resist being overly influenced by their last match-up.  Especially at Tufts where Conn should be comfortable, I don't see a Region 10 team knocking Conn out.

If we get Tufts-Conn in the Elite 8, Conn certainly has enough talent to win.  But will they?  I have my doubts.  Getting the first goal would certainly help.

[Ron Boerger]

The Trinity *women* are getting to host a pod for the first time since 2015, my bad for mixing that up.  And because they are, the men get sent on the road as the NCAA only allows either men or women to host in a given weekend based on even or odd year.     

[PaulNewman]

OK, now the Wash U, Chicago, OWU bracket.  My initial impression is that this is the group of death.  I don't see a clear-cut Final Four team in the quadrant, but rather NINE Elite 8-type teams (Wash U, North Park, St Olaf, Chicago, North Central, Otterbein, OWU, Rochester and Calvin).  Favorites Wash U and Chicago notably are NOT hosting.  And there are some very tricky 1st round games.  North Park has Carleton who just beat St Olaf.  Chicago has Webster which at 18-1-2 may be this year's St Joe's.  Otterbein, who is hosting, gets Trine.  Now us East Coasters know less than nothing about Trine and will see the 12-7-1 record and just reflexively advance Otterbein.  But perhaps second only to what Denison pulled off, Trine beat Calvin and KZoo back to back (including away both times and with KZoo knowing they had to have the game).  Trine also blew out DePauw 5-0 and tied Hope.  Here's a little nugget for Chicago...Webster beat Trine.  And, in a bit of serendipity, Trine played Otterbein at Otterbein earlier in the season, lost 2-0, and picked up 5 yellow cards.  It's never easy to beat a team twice, especially a team on a roll. And of course I'm sure many have circled the first round match-up with Calvin and Rochester, two teams with recent Final Four experience who never expect 1st round exits. 

If form follows (which no doubt it won't), the 2nd round matches here are outstanding.  I would consider Wash U vs North Park a coin flip and obviously this game would be at North Park.  That could be an Elite 8/national semi type game.  St Olaf vs North Central would pit two squads with sterling records against each other, and that likely would be a 1-0, 2-1, or 0-0 type tilt.  Chicago in the 2nd round would have to knock off Otterbein, a team that doesn't lose, at Otterbein.  OWU versus Calvin or Rochester also feels like a coin flip, although OWU loves playing at home under the lights and will have 1000+ supporters in attendance.

As for the Elite 8 and getting to the Final Four, I don't see a single clear favorite.  Calvin could lose to Rochester or go to the Final Four.  OWU has had a great year and is due for a big run.  Wash U, North Park and Chicago are all reasonable choices.  I suppose I'd be mildly surprised by St Olaf or Otterbein getting to the Final Four, but I could see either making the Elite 8.  This quad I'm sure will need a thorough review with revisions after the 1st weekend.

[PaulNewman]

The Trinity *women* are getting to host a pod for the first time since 2015, my bad for mixing that up.  And because they are, the men get sent on the road as the NCAA only allows either men or women to host in a given weekend based on even or odd year.     

LOL.  I feel like we should send you a hotline number.

[Gregory Sager]

Anyone care to give their take on how far Dominican might go in this tournament?

One-and-done is a fairly safe guess.

Dominican has done absolutely nothing to warrant anybody's respect this season. In times past, when the Stars were a legit power, they made up for their lack of quality games within the NACC by playing a challenging non-conference schedule. That policy got kicked to the curb a few years ago, IMO to the program's detriment. This is who the Stars played this season outside their circuit:

* Knox (12-6) Okay, so the Prairie Fire won the MWC regular season and tournament, and as a result get to be Ohio Wesleyan's sacrificial lamb in central Ohio this weekend. But let's not make too big a thing out of this one. Knox lost all but one game outside of its league, and that lone win was over a thorougly mediocre Wartburg squad.
Dominican 1, Knox 0

* Elmhurst (8-8-2) The Bluejays finished in the middle of the CCIW pack and failed to qualify for the CCIW tourney. Given the proximity of the two schools and their athletic department ties (Dominican women's soccer head coach Carlos Carillo is married to Elmhurst women's basketball head coach Tethnie Carillo), it makes sense that the Stars and the Bluejays play each other in various sports. But, despite belonging to the best D3 soccer league in the area, Elmhurst is no soccer power.
Elmhurst 3, Dominican 2

* Lake Forest (4-13-1) This used to be a respectable game, given that Lake Forest was more or less an average local D3 squad that finished regularly in the top half of the MWC. However, the Foresters bottomed out completely this year outside of MWC play and ended up with that atrocious record after going 0-8-1 to start the season in non-con play. This is no crime on Dominican's part in and of itself, because you can't always make allowances for a future opponent that happens to crater the same season that you play them. However ...
Dominican 4, Lake Forest 1

* Lake Forest (4-13-1) ... the problem is that Dominican played Lake Forest twice. And back-to-back, at that. And on consecutive days, too.
Dominican 3, Lake Forest 1

* North Central (18-1-1) Canceled, at Dominican's request. Figures.

If you're an ambitious NACC coach, when you only get four or five non-conference games to make up for your lackluster league schedule, you try to schedule quality opponents that will improve your team and better prepare them for NACC play as well as burnish your post-season credentials. Dominican doesn't do that anymore. Therefore, nothing that the Stars have done to date warrants thinking of them as anything but first-round fodder for a very tough St. Olaf team smarting from an unexpected MIAC tourney final loss to crosstown rival Carleton, an Oles squad that will certainly offer no quarter to the Stars this Saturday up in Minnesota.

[PaulNewman]

Now on to the Amherst and I suppose John Carroll and/or F&M quadrant.

For starters, feels like Amherst has not played in a month and who knows if that will help or hurt.  From an Amherst perspective, I'm not sure you could have dreamed of a better draw.  That said, I do NOT think Amherst is the #4 team in the country.  I over-ranked the Mammoths early and I suppose I could be under-ranking them now, but I would put them somewhere in the #9 to #15 range.  And for a player of such notoriety, Giammattei has had a relatively quiet campaign.  If Amherst was in the quad above this one in the bracket, I'd add Amherst to the list 9 legit contenders.  But here, they're still the favorite, even if modestly over-rated. 

As for key 1st round games, Babson vs Cabrini feels like a potential trap match.  I want Babson to win almost solely because Amherst deserves a serious challenge and I think Babson could give them one.  Gettysburg vs Kean is one of the more interesting 1st round games.  I have no clue who is favored, but both have surged late in the season.  I think either one of them could stress Cortland in the 2nd round.  Middlebury vs Oneonta should be one of the better 1st round games, and we'll see how each fares after sweating out getting a bid.  The general consensus is that this is not a classic Oneonta outfit, but don't spend a fortune betting against Ian Byrne.  I'm picking Midd in part because I think the game is more important for the Panthers, and because, as I've already said, I think Midd can make a run given the overall picture of this quad.  Even at home, I'm not sold on F&M, especially in games against teams of similar or more talent who also are experienced playing in high level, high pressure matches.  John Carroll is hosting and Hopkins looks to be the one possible challenge.  But Hopkins has limped to the tournament and may not get by PS-Harrisburg.  I don't see JCU losing at home to either one.

The sectional is likely to be Amherst (or Babson) going against either Cortland or the Gettysburg/Kean winner and the winner of F&M vs Midd/Oneonta versus John Carroll (or Hopkins).  I don't see Amherst losing to any of those prospective foes in the Sweet 16, although I'd like to see Gettysburg get a shot.  And I hope Cortland is more formidable than I think they are.  If Babson knocks Amherst out then all of the above reasonable choices.  At the bottom, I think it's going to be Midd versus John Carroll.  That's a worst case scenario for the Blue Streaks IMO because I think JCU advances versus F&M or Oneonta.  I think Midd can match JCU's maturity and size and despite the lack of goals Midd does have several dangerous players. 

I'll be honest though.  This quad, compared to the one above, looks like a handful of possible Sweet 16 type teams rather than Elite 8 or Final Four teams, but of course one of them will be going to the Final Four.  I'll be very surprised if that team is anyone other than Amherst, Midd, or JCU....but, come on Cortland, surprise me and get out of Oneonta's shadow.

[Hopkins92]

I really hate to say it, but I think F&M has the best shot of surprising higher seeds because of the style they play. It's a lot more disruptive if you haven't seen it before.  They area also one of those teams that really thrives on emotion... They practically try to conjure up this emotion with their bench on the road. At home, it can be a palpable aspect of the game.